Category: Hindsight 2020

‘Not Great, Bob’ — Civil War Or Autocracy Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025 Continues To Loom

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States continues to cleve into two nations, one Red, one Blue. And, as I keep saying, either we become all Red (autocracy) or we have a National Divorce caused by Blues which would precipitate a civil war of some sort. As proof of this looming catastrophe, just look at this:

That someone would even think this type of bullshit up is a ping from a very, very dark future. When not even fucking libraries are spared from cleving into Red and Blue, yikes.

The worst part of all of this is I struggle, in real terms, to figure out why it’s happening so fast. But it is. There is a lot more cultural and political rot eating away at America’s stability than you might think.

And it’s going to reach a crescendo in late 2024, early 2025 as part of the 2024 presidential cycle. There are a lot — a lot — of nightmare scenarios that one might think up.

But at the moment, I think, in general, what happens is A Republican wins in 2024 and America slips peacefully into autocracy. There will be a lot of gnashing of teeth on the part of Blues, but in the end, all that will happen is about 1 million (at least) smug Twitter liberals will leave the country and setup shop in various beautiful, exotic locales where they will produce podcasts that Poors like me will have to use VPN to listen to.

Malignant Ding-Dong Trump Never Met A Form Of Stochastic Terrorism He Didn’t Like

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. Trump continues to be a fascist thug as he grows more and more hysterical over the prospect of being indicted in New York City. The latest evidence of this can be seen below.



The thing about Trump is he is such a lazy moron that the things that he can get what he wants — his base to start political violence — by just being hysterical and posting shit like the above photo. He believes this because he’s often gotten a lot of what he wanted otherwise because of the political fear the system has in regards to him.

But as history will attest — being a Great Man of history is hard work and requires a level of cognitive ability that Trump simply doesn’t have. He’s just an avatar for the structural problems in the United States at the moment so, to date, he’s not really had to do much work.

The question is, of course, what happens when the conditions are right for another January 6th type situation. Then what. I’ve given it some thought and I fear even if my absolute worst fear happened — a series of coordinated attacks around the country with AR-15 armed MAGA psychopaths — that that would still not be enough to break the Trump fever.

Even if this happened and there was ABSOLUTE PROOF that it was done by MAGA in an effort to scare the authorities into not doing anything about Trump, the same dynamic as January 6th would happen.

The center-Left would freak out and think, “Well, THIS will be the thing that ends MAGA.” Meanwhile, the center-Right would, after a few days of angst, embrace MAGA even tighter and think up whatever they had to in an effort to gaslight those 100,000 voters across five swing states that the whole thing was some sort of Deep State false flag operation.

I mean, we all saw exactly what happened on January 6th and the Republican Party has come to believe that either they are all patriots or members of a false flag operation, depending on what helps them win an argument with people like me.

So, as I keep saying — it’s autocracy or civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Curious Developments In The Special Counsel Fight

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, it definitely looks as though all my idle speculation about Trump being caught red handed babbling about treason was just that — baseless speculation. I say this because — at the moment at least — Trump isn’t going to appeal his recent legal defeat surrounding the situation.

If there was a record of him being treasonous, he probably would fight it a lot harder.

But something curious continues to swirl around Trump’s legal fight with Jack Smith. Apparently, whatever it is that it being fought over regards Trump lying to his lawyers about him having more secret documents after he told the Feds he had handed over all of them.

And, yet, something about that doesn’t make sense. How would the Feds KNOW that Trump lied to his lawyers other than they found more documents after he said it. There is something about all of this that doesn’t add up.

All I know is, the last time I saw this kind curious shadow boxing was the first reports about Trump’s “perfect call” with the president of Ukraine. Whatever is going on, it’s Big. Really big.

I don’t know. I just don’t know. I suppose we’ll find out soon enough.

What Fuck Is Going On Between Trump & Jack Smith?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something curious is going on between Trump and Special Council Jack Smith. Now, let me be absolutely clear — I am prone to baseless, somewhat hysterical speculation. So take all of this with a grain of salt. In other words, I’m often, if not always, wrong.

But given what the legal battle going on at the moment in the courts is about — evidence surrounding Trump lying to his lawyers about giving all the documents over to the Feds, it does make one wonder if Something Big may be involved.

And that Something Big would be maybe Trump was recorded giving his lawyers motivation for why he took the documents in the first place. If there was some sort of absolute proof — straight from Trump’s mouth — that he took the documents in part because he saw some sort of monetary upside….oh boy.

That would meet the Constitution’s metric for treason.

That is pretty bonkers to speculate being possible, even for me. And that’s saying something. So, it’s probably something a lot more mundane than that. Something interesting, but not nearly as historic.

The only reason why I think such a thing might be within the realm of possibility is Trump is SO FUCKING STUPID that I could see him, in confidence to his lawyers, saying something like, “Yeah, I thought some of those documents might be worth something.” Or, “I took the documents because I thought Putin or Kim Jung Un might find them cool.”

He really is that stupid.

My Current Concern About Malignant Ding-Dong Trump Getting Booked

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is, you just never know. And that, in real terms, is his power. We’re all on edge because Trump could just as easily successfully incite ANOTHER January 6th-like event as much as he could, well, do nothing of any note.

So, my fear at the moment when it comes to the possibility of Trump being booked is should he be indicted tomorrow (Wednesday) that between then and whenever he should be arraigned next week he uses every possible opportunity to goad his followers to do something violent.

It could be anything from him simply refusing to leave Mar-a-Lago to some sort of crazy riot in New York City whenever he goes in to get booked. Anything is possible with someone as dumb and crazed as Trump.

Hopefully, I’m just overthinking things like usual.

The Illiberal Left Is Real & A Real Fucking Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So. I was dumb and waded into the Trans movement issue on Tik-Tok and now I have people doing heated video stiches to a post I felt was rather equatable. The Left’s Trans orthodox is so absolute, so inflexible that I really worry about our future.

I’m generally supportive of Trans rights and that isn’t really the issue.

What IS the issue is how the Left has such an absolute fixed orthodoxy on the issue that a lot of Traditionalists who are coming at the situation in good faith are being driven into the arms of fucking MAGA Nazi fascists because of the Left’s freak out.

This is a real possibility, if my conversations with my Traditionalists relatives are any indication. Our small-d democratic politics collapses if one side wants to destroy or “cancel” you if you don’t tow their orthodoxy. I hate orthodoxy of any sort and so the idea that even by trying to approach the Trans issue as a pluralist will get me in trouble is really fucking annoying.

Now, something I think a lot about is contrasting and comparing the Trans movement with the African American civil rights movement. I freely admit that some of the arguments that are used against Trans people have, in the past, been used against African Americans demanding more rights.

And yet.

There is the moral element. For your typical Christian conservative, the very idea of being gay is really loaded — a sin, even — so to take this to the next level where you struggle to answer the question of “What is a woman” is a bit much for them.

We can’t just destroy Christian Traditionalists for thinking this way. Even at the height of the Civil Rights Era, there was a certain amount of give and take on what was going on.

It serves no one in a functioning democracy if you are so absolute in your orthodoxy on a subject that people who disagree with you have a credible fear of being publicly shamed.

So, to be clear — I generally support Trans rights. I just think maybe Trans right advocates could be a LITTLE BIT more flexible in their ideology.

The Reasons Why America May Have A Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really, really, REALLY don’t want a civil war. And, yet, I need to make my abstract fears concrete, so I keep writing about it. Here are what I feel are some of the basic reasons why the most powerful democracy in human history could very well collapse into civil war / revolution.

Vibes
While this is obviously the most nebulous of the issues facing America, it’s very potent in the minds of a lot of people who don’t feel like constructing any sort of overarching reason for why they’re unhappy. All a lot of people know is they don’t like what’s going in the country and some of them — mosty Traditionalists — feel “oppressed” because “woke” Gen Z people won’t let them mutter the “N-Word” under their breath.

Religion
A lot of these issues overlap or have a symbiotic relationship to each other. For a lot white Christian conservatives, being gay is, by definition, a sin. Hence the Gay Panic that America is going through at the moment. So, while growing number of young people see being gay as nothing short of aspirational, for your typical white Christian, it’s just another marker on the highway to hell. So, while it’s not really an economic reason for a civil war, it doesn’t exactly help the situation.

Abortion
This is an economic issue that is probably the most corrosive. The reason is, abortion has always been a legal firebreak for the real issue — birth control itself. So, as the two sides begin to recede from each other and radicalize along the way, the very idea that a woman would have bodily autonomy becomes controversial. Red States crave those sweet, sweet white babies to the point that they would rather put millions of women under the state’s jackboot than risk allowing the browning of the country to continue unabated.

Income Disparity
This sort of an abstract, but it is very destabilizing. Especially when it comes to basic things like education. The wealthy can afford better health care and education and, as such, their entire perception of what it means to be an American is different than someone who has just a high school education.

Regional Differences
I don’t think people really appreciate that if the country collapses, the very size of the United States on a geographic basis will begin to play a part in things. One thing I just can’t game out is how likely it would be that, in the end, the final battle royal would be decided by regional alliances determined to own the USA “brand.”

Guns
This is a real cultural difference between many Blues and Reds. There is some overlap, but, in general, Blues want more gun control than Reds. And if you combine guns with all the other problems facing the country, it only throws fuel on the flames of division.

“The Woke Cancel Culture Mob”
I add this one because there are elements of the center-Left who seem determined to alienate Traditionalists to the point that they feel forced to embrace fascism. Not great, Bob.

MAGA Republicans Are Radicalizing

by Shelt Garner
@shetgarner

I continue to read up on the rise of the Nazis and the more I read, the more alarmed I become about America’s future. All the current macro trends suggest a real risk of catastrophe in late 2024, early 2025 in the context of the 2024 presidential election.

But for the grace of Jeebas America would have problem come crashing down in January 2021. The January 6th insurrection came EXTREMELY CLOSE to working and, ironically enough, it was idiot Von Papen wannabe Mike Pence who bought us four years.

As I keep saying, America at the moment is an autocracy without an autocrat. Political scientists call America an “anocracy” and I totally believe it. The Republican Party is a fascist party hidden only from view because of the nature of our electoral system. If we were a parliamentary system, it would be clear that instead two parties there was actually the fascist Republican Party and a collection of pro-democratic parties that were aligned under a Democratic Front.

What is so unsettling to me is a back-of -the envelope estimate of how bad things could get when the fucking Nazi MAGA Republicans gain power again is startling. If you factor in basic elements like race, the size of the American population and how regional differences — man, are we fucked.

As I’ve suggested before, the historical event we need to think more about is the French Revolution. If the United States buckles, that’s the only event I can think of that would be equal to it. The centrifugal forces tearing the country apart as so powerful that if we go the civil war route instead of simply shrugging and turning into a full-blown autocracy…holy shit.

I would suggest that if you factor in the WW3 that would happen because of a Second American Civil War that roughly 1 billion people could die directly and indirectly because of the “Fourth Turning” that may start in late 2024, early 2025 when the United States goes tits up because either Blues leave the Union or Reds leave the Union. (It could go either way at this point.)

But, hopefully, I suppose, we may simply peacefully and without much struggle become an America First inward-looking autocracy. The United States will leave NATO and align ourselves, instead, with nations like Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

Good times!

I hope my ICE concentration camp has Wifi.

Pondering Trump’s Potential Booking In New York City

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is in something of a downlow crisis at the moment. At some point between now and as late as Thursday it’s possible that for the first time in American history a former POTUS will be criminally charged. (There was that one time President Grant got a ticket for speeding on his horse, but, lulz, let’s not count that.)

Anyway, allegedly, the NYPD has been to brace for impact starting tomorrow morning at 7 a.m. Is that a tell? It could mean anything. And, really, one concern I have is that A LOT could happen between now and Thursday. In my experience, once you’re in a crisis, all sorts of crazy shit seems to happen at the same moment.

It is going to be interesting to see how dramatic all of this will be. At the moment, I believe it’s going to be historic, but rather mundane. But anything having to do with Trump has a higher-than-normal level of uncertainty to it. Anything could happen because of that malignant ding-dong.

Everything from Trump inciting some sort of violence to him just giving a dumb, rambling speech is possible. Though, there are two datapoints to take note of. One is, he’s going to get DNA taken, which would help with the various sexual assault claims he’s fighting AND there will be mugshots.

Those mugshots will be burned into the mind of every American the instant they are available. They will be on everything from t-shirts to toilet paper by the end of the week, if not sooner.

Anyway. The next few days are going to be memorable, one way or another.

Allegedly, If Trump Is Indicted, We’re Going To See A NYC Perp Walk

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, apparently, according to news reports, if Trump is, in fact, indicted — which I still find potentially dubious — he’s going to surrender himself in New York City and have a perp walk.

The future?

Now, if Trump wasn’t such a fucking lazy idiot, he would give this whole situation some thought and demand that he handcuffed and frog walked so the whole thing would be both iconic and allow him to play up the martyr element to all of this.

But Trump is very, very stupid and lacks the cognitive abilities necessary to think in such abstract terms. He is a natural showman, yes, but in real terms he usually takes the path of least resistance. He has no sense of history and, as such, he’s just an avatar, rather than a Great Man.

So, I honestly don’t know how it will all go down. It may be rather mundane, if historic.

But there is the known unknown of what happens if there are protests and counter protests outside of the event. That is a volatile situation unto itself.