We all have been working on the assumption that COVID19 would come and go and later at some point we would face The Big One. This new pandemic would be separate from COVID and be so bad that we would look back at the years 2020 – 2021 and realize we really didn’t know how good we had it.
Yes, but.
It’s beginning to dawn on me that there is a real chance that The Big One may be nothing more of a continuation of the original COVID19 outbreak. Or, to put it another way, what if 2020 – 2021 is seen by future historians as analogous to WW1?
We could face a new, highly contagious and deadly COVID19 variant that is not something independent of COVID19, but rather a variant of it. It’s easy to game out a situation where we go through off of this again with the same virus, but we end up with far, far, far more people dead.
How likely is that to happen? I honestly have no idea.
But it is a hyper modern Modern Problem for us all to mull. It’s very possible that sooner rather than later our entire world could be upended by the same virus that’s been doing it since late 2019.
I am not an expert. You probably should aggressively ignore anything I have to say.But I am pretty good at running scenarios, so let’s go through what would be a few “tipping points” on the issue of Omicron (or something similar) that would force us all to sit up and take notice.
We Learn Vaccines Aren’t Working Vaccines are our first line of defense. But I am hearing conflicting messages about Omicron. I’m hearing that it’s a lulz if you’ve been vaccinated. And I’m hearing it has significant breakthrough data. So, I don’t know. It seems we pretty safe for the time being on that front.
It Spreads A Lot Faster This definitely seems to be something going on with Omicron. If your community is unvaccinated, it moves a lot faster within your community.
The Mortality Rate Is Far, Far Higher In the end, I again use the metric I used with COVID19 when it first came out — how many people are dying or getting really sick? I thought it was going to be A LOT of people, when it turned out to be far less deadly than my initial belief. So, for me, at least, we would have to have the three strikes of blowing past vaccines, spreading a lot faster AND the death rate being a lot higher (even for the vaccinated) before I would grow too concerned.
For the time being, I’m taking a wait and see approach, as should you. Grab a towel. No need to panic.
Some time ago, I worried out loud on this blog about the possibility of a super potent COVID19 variant I called “the Omega Variant.” The announcement today of the existence of the “Omicron” variant has again got me wondering if my dire predictions might come true.
For it to be what I feared, the Omicron variant would have to be so much worse than the original COVID19 everything would be thrown up in the air in an unprecedented fashion, very, very rapidly. In fact, the very existence of our current concept of the modern world would momentarily be put in doubt. Hundreds of millions of people all over the world would have to die in quick succession.
That’s when we know that the Omicron variant was the Omega Variant.
So far, I don’t even know why the WHO is concerned about Omicron in the first place. As such, I think we’re all kind of freaking out and pouring our fears into it in the abstract.
There is a political aspect to all of this. Enough people die quick enough in the United States and the country will buckle in to warring camps a lot — A LOT — sooner than you might think. But, for the moment at least, that’s all very fantastical.
Soon enough, I think we’ll find out what the deal is with Omicron and how concerned we should be. I’m hold up with a broken right ankle, so, hopefully, if the apocalypse does come, it can at least wait until February.
At least give me a running start, Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
As best I can understand it, here’s the MAGA New Right’s media narrative on COVID19:
COVID19 was intentionally released by either the Chinese government or major pharmaceutical companies — or some combination of both — from a lab in Wuhan as part of a Deep State plot to prevent Trump from being re-elected. Along the way, Dr. Antony Fauci, despite spending his entire adult life trying to save lives, was somehow directly and personally involved in funding this research and directly benefited from it on a financial basis.
Though Trump should get endless amount of praise for his Operation Warp Speed, any form of mandate or mitigation requirement is illegal and should be proactively ignored on a personal basis by God fearing Christians. If necessary, one should take up arms to make your point.Even though there is a free, safe vaccine created by funding and organization by Trump, the average person should not take it, but rather risk getting sick and then taking any number of drugs and potions in an effort to mitigate the symptoms.
Because of the evil machinations of China, the Deep State and pharmaceutical companies, the United States should get reparations from the Chinese government equal to the amount of lost economic production that was caused by the pandemic. What’s more, Dr. Fauci should be arrested and put on trial for mass murder.
And, honestly, in all fairness, Trump should be re-instated because COVID19 was a plot to bring him down, after all. And if that doesn’t work, then Steve K. Bannon is going to work personally to ensure the administration of elections on a local level is so corrupted by his “spiritual shock troops” that it’s impossible for a Democrat to ever win any office ever again.
So, that’s what we’re up against right now with the MAGA New Right. Now, if they can actually back up any of these claims, then I’m willing to listen to them and readjust my thinking accordingly. I’m aware that this is new evidence to suggest that there was some Federal funding of the research going on at the Wuhan lab, but nothing that would indicate that Dr. Fauci was personally getting any monetary gain or that in any way he did anything that would require him being fired, forced to retire or, least of all, arrested.
Steve K. Bannon
But this lack of evidence has not stopped Steve K. Bannon from making it absolutely clear on his podcast that, at a minimum, the Chinese government owes the U.S. Government trillions in reparations, immediately.
All of this bullshit is another side that things are dark in the Untied States and only getting darker. We’re careening towards a breaking point, an existential choice — and none of the three options I think we’re going to be forced to choose from will be all that great.
And, really, the crux of the matter is we’re dealing with macro forces and we’ve gone pass the event horizon. There’s no going back. Something huge is going to happen domestically in the United States no later than around January 2025. It may be as subtle as the country peacefully transitioning into an autocracy. It could be something really dramatic like an epic civil war involving WMD. We might endup with a military junta, but that’s the lease likely of the outcomes I see before us.
I’m beginning to grow suspicious about why, out of the blue, the MAGA New Right pitched a fucking fit over a pretty mundane Late Show song-and-dance routine about getting vaccinate.
I’m not saying there was some sort of conspiracy, but the earnestness of the MAGA New Right people in their belief that it was all humorless “propaganda” is very odd. Colbert — and others — have been making fun of the vaccine hesitant for some time now. Why freak the fuck now….because of that specific gag?
It’s all very odd.
It makes me wonder if it’s something of a setup. They must know that Colbert will make fun of their freak out on his show. (Or, at least will / should.) Maybe they think they can draw attention to how unfair picking on the unvaccinated is or some sort of similar bullshit?
But, no matter what, the difference in views on the gag definitely lays bare the cold hard fact that American civil society is beginning to fray at the edges to an alarming rate. This is another datapoint that suggest we’re going to be faced with a historic, existential choice no later than January 2025.
When negative polarization grows so white hot and absolute that we can’t even agree about what’s funny — we got a problem.
I see our current lingering COVID19 pandemic as a national health crisis and, as such, we need all the help we can get to end it. If that means a late night talk show host does a silly song and dance routine about getting vaccinated, so be it.
But, no, the MAGA New Right hot takes were flying hard and fast tonight about how “unfunny” Colbert was for promoting vaccination. It’s shit like that which really hits home that the bolts are popping off the United States at an alarming rate.
If negative polarization has reached such a white hot level that we can’t even agree on what’s funny because we see everything through the lens of politics, something is deeply wrong.
But there’s one thing we have to understand about this difference in senses of humor — it represents a very serious problem. It makes me remember when I went to the MAGA rally in D.C. after Election Day. At some point, I started to get spooked because people were looking at me funny — I think they knew I was live streaming the event and not exactly giving it a thumbs up with my commentary.
I felt…alarmed. Like, under the wrong conditions I might be physically accosted if I stuck around too long. As such, there are real world consequences to this bullshit.
If we can’t even laugh at the same things, then we really are two nations, one Red, one Blue. Now what.
I got a lot wrong about the COVID19 pandemic when COVID was first reported in Wuhan. The biggest thing I got wrong was how deadly it would be. Given the first reports of how much of a freakout the Chinese government was going through, I assumed we were in for The Stand levels of death ahead of us. I remember going to the grocery story and imagining what it would be like to rummage for food there in some sort of post-apocalyptic, COVID ravaged world.
Things turned out to be bad, but not that bad.
The worst we had was a run on toilet paper, of all things.
I went to the grocery store today and it wasn’t COVID I was worried about, it was a Second American Civil War.
I looked at the bountiful shelves of food and products and wondered if one day — probably at some point after January 2025 — I would walk into the same grocery story and there….just wouldn’t be anything there because the country had imploded into civil war.
This particular dark vision isn’t months away, but years away. And it’s only one of several potential options ahead of us. But for Trump running again, it’s easy to imagine my fears of political violence around January 2025 being way, way overblown.
All things being equal, if Trump isn’t the Republican nominee in 2024, it’s very easy to see us simply slipping peacefully into autocracy. The trains will continue to run on time, if you will.
But Trump definitely seems like he’s going to run again and, as such, the likelihood that he, through sheer idiotic incompetence will push the United States into civil war grows to at least 50 /50, if not more. And, what’s worse, the case could be made that it won’t even be the 2024 presidential cycle that does it, but the 2022 mid-term cycle.
I say this because Steve Bannon et al are aggressively working to corrupt the institutions associated with what we take for granted in the United States — the administration of free and fair elections. It’s at least possible that if it’s widely believed that the 2022 midterms were corrupt that a civil war could break out then, not as part of the 2024-2025 post-election day shenanigans that I fear.
Steve Bannon
And all of this is largely being planned in broad daylight. Bannon is organizing the staffing of election boards across the nation with insane, bonkers Big Lie advocates who might get a little bit too big for their britches in 2022 and push us into a civil war two years earlier than I currently expect.
Because, make no mistake, Bannon and his toadies are recalibrating from the failure of the January 6th Insurrection. It’s possible that they might concluded that if there’s no sexxy TV footage of people going nuts and storming the Capitol, that the talking heads of MSM will lulz things.
This seems dubious to me, but it’s that type of miscalculation that starts wars — civil or otherwise.
But there are too many known unknowns right now. Things could go a lot of different ways. I would suggest you start to think about 2022, and not 2024-2025 being the Fourth Turning, however.
Ok. This is going to take some brain power. But, here goes. When it comes to COVID, I think the MAGA New Right thinks (I use that term loosely) that it was designed in a lab in Wuhan and, as such, we should PRAISE Son Of God Donald Trump for the vaccine, but we shouldn’t take it to own the libs.
And, lib, you never know, it’s possible this is all a “plandemic” in the sense that it was big pharma who was funding the “gain of function” research in Wuhan and you don’t KNOW that Dr. Fauchi isn’t profiting personally from it, now do you? Something something something Jewish space lasers
.
Any change in behavior — however minor — to manage the pandemic is a brutal attack on lady liberty because “my body, my choice” and also you’re excited that Roe is going to be overturned soon.
To take the free vaccine would would somehow be a win to the libs and to Red China, so take Regeneron or horse dewormer instead. There can never be “Vaccine passports” or, God forbid, a vaccine mandate, even though there are a variety of existing vaccine mandates that have been on the books for generations.
The difference is mumble mumble mumble the politics are different mumble mumble and fuck you, lib.
Nothing short of reparation from China will do when it comes to COVID. And, if that doesn’t work, then nuke them and let Trump ride one of the bombs like Slim Pickins in Dr. Strangelove.
And, in the end, it’s all about “personal responsibility” and if the fucking lib still won’t shut up, just tell them “no it won’t” and claim that all the facts that they use are “bogus.”
From what I’m able to glean, the MAGA New Right wants us to believe that COVID19 is just part of modern life now AND they want to attack the Biden Administration for “not doing as well” as the Trump Administration did handling the pandemic.
My reaction to the MAGA New Right’s views on COVID19.
As such, the MAGA New Right is absolutely against mask and vaccine mandates and changing people’s lives in any way to address the lingering COVID19 crisis — and yet also wants to scream bloody murder that Biden hasn’t solve it, which apparently Trump was on his way to doing but for the evil Deep State “stealing” the 2020 election from him.
Now, I have to note that for the time being, this working — and may ultimately work to the extent necessary to flip Congress for the MAGA New Right in 2022. So, in essence, this paradoxical media narrative will be a success.
And, yet, the MAGA New Right has a problem — there is a real risk that the metrics that matter most will start to hurt their political chances. If it becomes clear that something, anything has to be done to mitigate the COVID19 uptick currently happening in Red States, then there might be a frantic too-little, too-late struggle to reverse course in mid stream.
This will be even more the case if some variant pops out that blows past our existing vaccine regimen and throws us back to square one.
But as it stands, Republicans literally would rather have a lot of people die of COVID than miss a chance to “own the libs.” To that extent, the MAGA New Right is a literal personality death cult.
If people like Ron DeSantis have a come-to-Jesus moment about COVID19, it will be so sudden, so unexpected that we will all be left in shock. And, honestly, the only way that will happen is if they see some sort of political advantage — a way to “own the libs,” if you will — by doing so.
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