Category: Trumplandia

Form Follows Function: ICE As America’s SS

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Right now, ICE deals with undocumented people, but the infrastructure is quickly being put into place for ICE to be more like the Nazi SS. And, I think if there’s some sort of civil war or revolution in the near future ICE is probably going to commit it’s fair share of atrocities.

My biggest fear, of course, is that I might be amongst those that ICE…uhh…”hurts.”

But even if we don’t have a civil war or revolution, ICE is growing into a serious menace. Form follows function and our Hitler-wannabe POTUS is inevitably going to want an SS-like organization to implement some of his more evil ideas.

I still think Trump might simply declare martial law and while not directly order ICE to murder millions in cold blood, he might simply set up the conditions where that happens. There are a lot — a lot — of people in the USA.

Even if just a few percent of people are targeted for some sort of Final Solution, that’s a lot of people! Anyway, hopefully I’m overthinking things. Hopefully none of this is going to happen.

So, Chat, Are We Having A Second Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Editor’s Note: This is just me, a rando in the middle of nowhere musing about this possible event that seems to be on everyone’s mind. So, take it for what it’s worth.

Short answer: Maybe. I can’t predict the future.
Long Answer:

Ok, all the conditions, all the metrics are there for either a civil war or revolution in the United States. There are centrifugal political forces that seem to be spinning out of control and it seems like it would just take the right catalyst for the country to implode into civil war or revolution.

There are two things to take into consideration.

One is, since the first Civil War ended in 1865, the US is notorious for just muddling through, no matter how bad things get. So, lulz? Maybe somehow, even though Trump definitely wants to declare martial law and maybe call off the 2026 and or 2028 elections, we somehow will just…muddle through.

The second issue is I think Trump really is a Russian agent and he seems hell bent on destroy the country I love. He keep’s a line stepper. He’s a one man stress test of American political and public social life.

So, the case could be made that he will, on purpose, push us to the breaking point and there will be a civil war between now and, say, 2029. But it could happen a lot sooner.

One issue that we to address is if a Second Civil War does happen, it’s going to suck. WMD will be used by both sides. Of particular interest to Reds would be using tactical (I hope — no need for strategic nukes! ) nukes on Blue cities in Red States. So, I could see, say, Atlanta being bombed into rubble so all the fucking Nazi MAGA cocksuckers could overrun it.

So, in general I don’t want either a civil war or a revolution.

But are we going to have one? Maybe. It’s possible, not probable.

2026 Will Suck

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For reasons personal and not so personal, I fear 2026 is going to suck and egg. For my part, my life is going to change in ways I just can’t control starting as early as late this month.

But I also think that 2026, because there’s a mid-term election, is a prime candidate for year we actually have a civil war or (Blue) revolution. I could totally see Trump doing something crazy in regards to the the 2026 midterms and, lulz, the country collapses into a civil war (or Blue Revolution.)

I say this in the context of Trump and MAGA clearly thinking they will never hav to either be held accountable or ever leave office. So, lulz. It could be that 2026 is kind of the very last fish or cut bait for Americans when it comes to what’s left of our democracy.

If Trump really does fuck with the 2026 mid-terms and…nothing happens, then, welp, it was fun while it lasted. We made it barely to 250 years of empire and then it all just faded away into tyranny.

I do hope, however, that I might as early as spring 2026 finish a novel worth querying. And, honestly, I just want to write a novel good enough that the people I send it to…finish it and give me an opinion.

That would be quite an accomplishment, given my history with such things!

I May Have Voted In My Last Free & Fair Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So. I voted in the Virginia elections happening this fall and I paused to soak up the idea that this might be the last free-and-fair election I vote in for the rest of my life.

It’s kind of sorry I have to think about that, but, lulz, that’s what we got.

The USA is no longer free. That’s just a matter of fact.

I still worry about how bad things are going to get. I worry about ME. I mean, it’s just a matter of time before even randos like me catch the attention of our autocratic regime.

We Are All John Bolton Now

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First they came for John Bolton….and the next thing you know they start pushing randos like me out a window.

When that second phase of things happens is anybody’s idea, but it’s going to happen. There’s going to come a point where the US zooms past the Hungary level of autocracy and settle somewhere around Russia’s version.

As such, I think it’s inevitable that that the vise grip of tyranny will grow powerful enough that even nobodies like me get swept up.

It’s going to suck.

One issue, of course, is will things eventually get bad enough that there is some reaction on the part of Blues on a structural basis. I mean, I suppose it’s possible that we could have a civil war or Blue revolution of some sort.

And that would suck even more.

Anyway. I just feel kind of sad about the whole situation.

Trump Is Itching To Declare Martial Law

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really don’t want martial law or civil war. Really. I just want to be able to work on my scifi dramedy novel in peace and quiet and see if maybe I can throw it over the transom and get it published.

Ugh.

And, yet, it definitely seems as though we are careening towards some sort of politically volatile situation. Either Trump gets what he wants, which is someone throwing a Molotov Cocktail at some National Guard troops so he can declare martial law, or things really get out of hand and we have some sort of civil war / revolution.

Double ug.

I don’t know what to tell you. My best guess is if there is a civil war, it might happen either around the 2026 or 2028 elections. That’s when political passions are at their highest “the silly season,” and that would make the most sense for the country finally collapsing into civil war or revolution.

Jesus Christ, do I hope that doesn’t happen.

‘One Battle After Another’ Probably Will Be Banned Soon Enough

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One Battle After Another is the best movie of the decade, so far. In fact, there were points while watching it that I found myself comparing it to The Godfather in terms of it potentially becoming a cultural touchstone for decades to come.

But there’s a big problem — it’s seems inevitable that it will get sucked into the culture wars. Now, obviously, in the short term such controversy may help its box office. In the long term, however, I worry about it becoming cultural contraband if Trump goes full tyrant as it seems he is headed at the moment.

So, I guess enjoy it while you can?

The interesting thing about the movie to me was how it managed to be progressive without being “woke.” It was just a really good movie.

Civil War / Revolution ‘Problem Areas’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I do not want a civil war. I do not want a revolution. But everyone else seems to have these potential events on the brain, so let’s contemplate some “problem areas.”

The first thing to remember is if things get really bad, and it seems like there is going to be a civil war or revolution, many, many, many people are going to flee their homes so where they actually live fits their politics better. This is going to be not only scary, but the first real sign that the USA is going to implode soon.

And, remember, the nastiness thing about civil war or revolution is all those Blue cities in Red states will be flashpoints for some pretty horrible, horrific events. Many people will die. It’s even possible that crazed rural people will “empty” a city and murder its residents in Kill Fields-like cold blood.

Yikes.

Here are some areas around the country that will be real problems in the event of a civil war or revolution.

  1. Virginia
    This is an obvious problem area. Virginia is two states, one Red, one Blue fused together who hate each other with growing rage. If the country implodes then the state will implode into intra-state political violence. It’s going to be like the Balkans in Virginia with very messy attempts to unite the state one way or another. A lot — A LOT — of people will die needlessly for a very dumb reason
  2. Oregon
    This state also is kind of two states fused together. I don’t know the intra-state politics of Oregon very well, but it’s my impression that its coast is liberal and its interior is conservative. I could see the state imploding like Virginia and a there being a real attempt by the Reds to take Portland out of spite, if nothing else.
  3. Ohio
    This is not as obvious, but Ohio is very much like, say, Poland. It’s got high population density and it’s strategic. It’s also very Red and I could see if Blues somehow got to the point where they were re-uniting the nation under their standard that Ohio would probably be a bloodbath the likes of which have not been seen since WW2.

    And, lastly, remember that if there is a revolution or civil war that WMD will be used by both sides AND there could be a race war in the South. So, there you go. Hopefully we won’t have to think about any of this in any serious way in the real world — ever.

I Don’t Know If We’re Going To Make It

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a lot of reasons to want us to muddle through the next few years instead of imploding politically. I would, at least, like a shot at querying a novel without having to worry about dodging bullets and bombs.

But I do worry. A lot.

I worry that Trump is going to fuck with the 2026 and / or 2028 elections to such an extent that Blues finally have enough and fight back in a way a little bit more dramatic than an angry Twitter thread.

Trump seems hell bent on crashing the American ship of state into the biggest iceberg he can find as soon as possible. Things are quickly getting out of control and if Trump finally figures out a way to invoke the Insurrection Act or even martial law — oh boy.

Things are really very unstable in the United States right now and there is no ready explanation of what the endgame is. Everything from martial law to Trump running for an illegal third term to outright civil war / revolution is on the table at the moment.

And, like I said, I just want to be able to query my novel in peace. That should not be too much to ask

Gird Your Loins

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I suspect we’re about to lurch into a more dramatic time in Trump’s second term now that he’s sending armed troops into Portland. I say this because even though Antifia doesn’t even exist, there are some scallywags in the city who might use the rubric of the organization to throw a Molotov Cocktail at troops.

And then they fire back, people die and suddenly the entire country has protests. Which Trump, of course, will possibly use as justification for martial law.

That’s been the point of sending troops into Blue cities all along. Trump is itching for an excuse to take things to the next level so, lulz, no one seems willing to stop him.

Trump would have two options if someone did throw a Molotov Cocktail in Portland. The Insurrection Act and martial law. I’m thinking martial law because there is a off-term election about to take place a in a few months and, who knows, maybe he might use some isolated violence in Portland to cancel the elections to prove a point.

Maybe.

Anyway, I’m sure someone is going to narc on me and I’ll find myself in some ICE camp. I hope it has wifi.