The Fall of The House Of Trump?

by Shelt Garner

Is it possible that as it becomes clear that Ron DeSantis is the only way that Republicans can win the White House 2024…that NOW Trump will face accountability? Will, magically, the wheels of justice begin to turn faster and suddenly throughout 2023 Trump might actually be indicted a few times?


But there are a few problems with this.

One is obvious — any criminal accountability for Trump will turn him into a martyr and the base of the Republican Party will cling to him even fucking tighter. The other is not as obvious, but just as certain — barring something really unexpected, rather than forcing Trump into political retirement, DeSantis winning the nomination would just cause Trump to jump to the Patriot Party.

And, remember, one of the reasons why I think we might have a civil war starting in 2024 – 2025 is Republicans, probably using the newly-validated “Independent Legislature” concept will brazenly steal the the 2024 election. To the point that the country buckles into Turner Diaries-like chaos. (I’ve never read that book, but it’s a shorthand for my worst nightmares about the future of America even though it’s politics are at the far end of the exact opposite of the political spectrum from mine.)

Anyway — the point is, Trump isn’t going anywhere.

He is either going to be the nominee in 2024, or he’ll destroy the Republican Party in the process. And, really, my only question about Trump is — was his historical purpose to be a transitional figure in America’s descent into autocracy, or is he meant to cause a civil war?

Regardless, we’ve officially entered a very, very bumpy time in American history. We either slide into autocracy, have a civil war or maybe have a military junta of some sort. But the America that we have known since the end of the First American Civil War is running on fumes into a dark, dark future. Anything can and will happen and the sooner you start to game out what you’re going to do when the so-called “Fourth Turning” happens, the better.

The Ascendant MTG

by Shelt Garner

I don’t know what to make of Marjorie Taylor Greene because on one hand, she’s just another deranged MAGA moron and on the other she seems to want to be a real player in Washington. The only reason why this is both alarming and unnerving is she not only has incoming Speaker Kevin McCarthy over a barrel, making all these demands of him, but she’s also apparently in the running to be Trump’s 2024 veep.


Oh boy.

So, there there is a good chance that we may trade ding-dong Trump for ding-dong MTG at some point after 2025. Should she — gulp — become president either she would be a far more effective version of Trump or she would name someone like fat fuck Mike Pompeo to be her veep and he would would behind the throne. I call this the “Velvet Fist” scenario.

I just don’t know. While I do think it is very, very possible that MTG could become POTUS by being Trump’s veep, her actual ability to turn America into some sort of MAGA hellscape is debatable. But anything is possible, I guess.

I will note, however, that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, the likelihood that America will have a Second American Civil War increases significantly. Let that marinate in your mind whenever thinking of MTG as POTUS one day.

The Mystery Of Ron DeSantis’ Height

by Shelt Garner

Americans like their modern presidents tall. And so I wanted to know how tall Ron DeSantis is — and I couldn’t find a straight answer. I finally found an answer, of sorts, on Twitter. But, even then, the answer was up in the air, with some people saying he’s 6’1″ and others saying he’s 5’9″.

How tall is would-be American Putin, Ron DeSantis? It’s a mystery!


If he’s 5’9″, there’s no chance he’s going to become president unless he somehow manages to break the tradition — or he’s running against a woman who might be shorter. (The question of if modern TV audiences mind that a woman is probably going to be shorter than any male political opponent is still up in the air.)

But, I just don’t know. DeSantis is a very, very strong candidate because he hides his innate fascism behind a smoother image. Even if that image is boring as hell. He’s such a compelling “moderate” fascist candidate that I have one Traditionalist relative who is eager to vote for him “three times” given the chance.

Update — mystery solved?


Remember, by definition, to be a modern Republican in good standing is to be a fascist, moderate or otherwise. So, really, the only difference between Trump and DeSantis is if DeSantis becomes president, there’s a lot less chance that we’re going to have a civil war. DeSantis is so fucking smooth that he’ll strangle what’s left of American democracy in broad daylight with a shit eating grin on his face and no one will do anything about it.

Meanwhile, Trump is such an idiot that he could, unto himself, cause a civil war simply because he would gloat so much after winning, or stealing, the 2024 election. Blue States may leave the Union in late 2024, early 2025 out of spite towards Trump if he wins, if nothing else.

But we just can’t count DeSantis out yet. He may look like the old SNL sketch Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer, but he’s primed and ready to be America’s first autocrat — but for ding-dong Trump standing in his way.

Did Trump Admit To Yet ANOTHER Crime? — Lulz, Who Am I Kidding, He’s Above The Law

by Shelt Garner

So, there’s this.

What does it mean? Anything? It’s one of those things that might go either way. Trump is such a loudmouth dingus that he could very well be admitting to a very, very serious crime…or not. And, lulz, what would it matter, anyway. He’s above the law to the point that he can admit to any crime and nothing would come of it.

For the time being, I think Trump is just making shit up to prove a point — vote for him, not the upstart DeSantis. But time will tell, I guess.

A Potential Battle Royale Is Brewing Between Trump & DeSantis

by Shelt Garner

There are two possible outcomes to what’s going on between lazy dingus Trump and would-be American autocrat DeSantis.

  1. Trump Politically Cockblocks DeSantis
    In this scenario, there is a huge battle royale between the two men for the soul of the Republican Party and, ultimately, Trump wins. In the end, DeSantis has to settle for being Trump’s 2024 veep and that’s that. We all wait until fat tub of lard Trump shuffles off this mortal coil and DeSantis becomes our first autocrat that way.
  2. The Bull Moose Endgame
    In this scenario, Trump gets fed up with the struggle of trying to get the nomination and he takes his marbles to the Patriot Party. Then we have the very real possibility that the Republican vote is split and we manage to punt our existential problems down the road at least one more presidential cycle.

    But remember, there is the Independent Legislature doctrine to be decided by SCOTUS, which might lead to the end of American democracy no matter how fucked up Republican politics might become otherwise. Or, to put it another way — macro trends as such that the United States is fucked, fucked, fucked. Something truly amazing would have to happen between now and Election Day 2024 for me not to feel pretty confident that all my hysterical, doom-and-gloom predictions for late 2024, early 2025 are spot on.

    And, yet, I’m always wrong, so only time will tell.

Abortion Politics, MAGA & The Rise Of A Very American Autocracy

by Shelt Garner

Whenever I talk politics these days with my far more conservative relatives — who I love dearly — inevitably the subject of abortion comes up and inevitably I come away at a loss.

There are so many contradictions and poorly thought out things connected to cause and effect that it’s difficult to process. The most glaring paradox is, of course, is that “pro-life” advocates got so fucking worked up for 50 years about how “every life is precious” then when COVID hit the country they were fully prepared to sacrifice Elders to the grim reaper. Unless, of course, they were related to them, then that was different.

Meanwhile, it seems as though MAGA is offended that abortion is mentioned at all in the public square. They take ANY mention of it, even in the effort to keep women safe, as gratuitous and taboo. They get all worked up about how states like California tell women they can still get abortions there, as if the state is advocating they have abortions instead of carry their fetus to term.

So, for a lot of conservatives, all abortions must be illegal because, by definition, abortion is only used for birth control. But wait, there’s more — these very same people have used all sorts of birth control themselves and they lulz the idea that MAGA is coming after legal birth control next, even for married people.

Abortion was always a legal firebreak for birth control in general and now that it’s gone, all of the passion behind ending Roe is now going after overturning the legal framework that has kept any form of birth control legal.

This all points out the central tenant of MAGA — they have a very poor grasp of how they keep hurting their self interests with some of their much sought after policies. They’re oblivious to it until, of course, it gets personal, then they secretly pay for an abortion or whatever. They don’t mind being hypocrites. In fact, that’s kind of their thing.

Now, obviously, there is another Red Line that I’m very concerned about — once the United States is an autocracy, the clock will be ticking for when I cross the autocrat and an ICE agent shoots me in the back of the head. I’ve had the luxury of being a loud mouth crank in a liberal democracy and once that’s no longer the case, my goose is cooked.

I’m probably going to be one of the first victims of the autocrat simply because I’m never, ever going to fucking shut up — even if my far more conservative relatives beg me to “for the sake of the family.”

Free speech is part of my American birthright and I plan to exercise it to the very end.

Imagining The Very American Autocracy of MTG’s ‘Velvet Fist’

by Shelt Garner

I have long mulled the idea that someone like Ivanka or Lara Trump might somehow find themselves as POTUS, only to be a figure head for their deranged, autocratic veep like Mike Pompeo or Josh Hawley. This would be par for the course for an autocracy because it would give the autocrat the ability to consolidate power and serve, in real terms, a minimum of around 16 years before they had to either become Speaker or change the Constitution to serve longer.

So I sat up and took notice when I learned that everyone’s deranged, power hungry MAGA idiot, Marjorie Taylor Greene, is growing in esteem in Trump’s eyes to the point that he’s even thinking of naming her his veep. This, of course, would put her in the driver’s seat to become POTUS.

I honestly don’t know enough about MTG to know if she would be nothing more of a figure head as she would be in the Velvet Fist scenario or if she has the wearwithal actually be an autocrat unto herself. It’s very curious. In one way, MTG is very Trump-like and would probably not be centered enough to consolidate power like a true autocrat, but at the same time, from what I can tell, she wants to be a power player and so she might be able to pull it off.

The idea of MTG being America’s first Very American Autocrat is loony, but I guess in it’s own way it’s better than having an autocrat named JOSH of all things. But there remains the issue of how politically blood thirsty the fight to be Trump’s autocratic successor is going to be when that moment comes. I just don’t know if MTG is up to that type of fight.

Are We a ‘Constitutional Republic’ or a Democracy?

by Shelt Garner

The simple explanation for why MAGA Republicans are so adamant that the United State is a constitutional republic rather a democracy is it’s a form of debate nullification. It gets MAGA Republicans, who are fucking fascists, a retort against liberal-progressives who talk about how MAGA Republicans are a “threat to our democracy.”

MAGA Republicans hear this so much that they have come up with, “Oh yeah? Well fuck you, the United States isn’t a democracy in the first place, it’s a constitutional republic!” Then it becomes obvious that the two people talking can’t even agree on the terms they’re using and the conversation trails off to something else.

There is so much wrong with the growing insistence by MAGA Republicans that we can’t defend democracy because, lulz, the United States isn’t even one to begin with. They have a number of talking points thought out about all of this, everything from “Are you going to challenge the wisdom of the Founding Fathers?” to a garbled, misinterpretation of Alexis de Tocqueville.

That this is even an issue, is also something of a tell as to the agenda of MAGA Republicans. That they get so wrapped up in this dumb conflation about the nature of our Constitution tells us that they don’t believe in democracy and they want to establish a white Christian ethnostate. Or, more specifically, rather than work within the bounds of our democracy and change their policy agenda to win elections fair and square, they’re so fucking racist that they want to play lesser democratic elements of the Constitution like a xylophone so they can establish an autocracy and that will be that.

The point is — another reason why this is a tell is the idea that the United States is a “constitutional republic” is not mutually exclusive with it being a democracy. It’s both and has been, to varying degrees, since its conception. It’s only now, when MAGA Republicans are looking for some retort to evil libtards that the two equally true concepts have been muddled by MAGA Republicans’ partisan needs.

I would note that “What form of government does the United States have?” is following the same path as any number of other hot button issues where the two sides are so far as apart that they can’t agree on the basics. If you bring it up MAGA Republicans laugh at you, use a joke they heard on some fetid MAGA podcast and then you spend all your time not talking about the issue, but wading through bullshit designed to make it impossible to even debate the topic at hand in the first place.

It’s happened with gun control. It’s happened with the Green New Deal. It’s happened to a variety of topics and it’s happening with the very basic idea of the Untied States being a democracy. If that’s not a sign that at some point between now and spring 2025 we’re going to have a civil war, turn into a MAGA autocracy or have a military junta, I don’t know what is.

This is where I have to bring up the great irony of this bullshit. I have people in my family to believe “the United States isn’t a democracy.” I love them dearly, even if I’ve actively given up debating politics with them because of shit like this. The irony is that given that I’ve made it very clear that I’m not going to ever stop ranting about how much I fucking hate the MAGA Republican movement, should the United States turn into an autocracy, it’s inevitable that I’m probably going to be sent to a camp.

THEN, of course, my Traditionalist conservative relatives will sit up and take notice and have to figure out how to get me out of my concentration camp. Once things get personal — their only red line other than violence in the streets — then they will start to get upset about America no longer being a democracy. Then, of course, it will be fucking too late. This is not an abstract to me. I’m never going to be a “Good German” and any shift on the part of the United States into autocracy poses real risks for me, personally.

But my Traditionalist relatives scoff at these fears or just don’t want to talk about it. They hate the soft power of the “woke cancel culture mob” SO MUCH that they willing to give up their American birth right of democracy so they can live in a white Christian ethnostate, even if it puts my life in real danger.

Gaming Out An American Military Junta in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner

I write a lot about the possibility of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025. And, yet, there is a third option that I’ve written about some, too: military junta.

How exactly what that happen? Well, it’s still too far to game out, but one possibility would be that Blue States begin the process of leaving the Union and the military finally steps in to kind of cool things down until, maybe, a Constitutional Convention can be called.

The other scenario is, of course, is the U.S. Military is forced to step in because, well, lulz, we have no idea who POTUS is — or, at least, can’t agree using political means who should be POTUS.

I think we have to give the idea of a military junta serious thought because history has shown us that that is often the route that modern democracies go when they finally fail. It happened with the French in the 1960s and it could happen here in a few years.

In my fevered imagination, I could see someone like James Mattis being named “acting POTUS” for a few months while we sort out exactly what we’re going to do about a National Divorce / secession crisis / certification crisis. The U.S. Military is the only remaining institution in America that would have the means to keep the country together if there was a severe political crisis.

And it would make sense, given how respected the U. S. Military is across the political spectrum for them to control the country through some sort of bi-partisan military junta made up of military and political leaders. A military junta might, in the end, be the only thing that stops either civil war or autocracy from happening.

But. And this is a big but — it could be that not even the American military would be able to avoid buckling should the time come. Generally, the officer corp still believes in democracy, while the enlisted are far more likely to support MAGA.

Which reminds me of the coup attempt that Turkey had a few years ago that ultimately did nothing more than allow their autocrat to consolidate power. So, again, I think in the end, America is just going to become an autocracy. Or, to make ourselves feel better, we’re going to pretend we’re a traditional Western democracy when, in fact, everyone and I mean EVERYONE will know that we’re simply another illiberal democracy like Hungary or Turkey.

The only question I have, of course, is — will I cross ICE and endup in a Trump branded concentration camp?

Ron DeSantis Would Be America’s First Autocrat — But For Trump Being A Political Monster Who Won’t Get Out of The Way

by Shelt Garner

Let me be clear — any Republican who becomes POTUS in 2025 will be our first autocrat. There are a at least a dozen would-be MAGA Republican autocrats waiting for Trump to just get the fuck out of the way. He’s served his political and historical purpose, so if he would just retire our inevitable decline into autocracy could happen unabated.

The person who is very, very, very popular with my Traditionalist is Ron DeSantis. And, really, he fits the bill of the person who would be America’s first autocrat. He will become president and we’ll all wake up in 20 years and wonder why he’s still POTUS. Trump has shown DeSantis — and other leading Republicans — how weak the center-Left is and how easy it will be to establish an autocracy based on minority rule. They just need the opportunity and the rest will take care of itself.

By definition, DeSantis as POTUS means the end of 240-odd years of American democracy. It probably won’t happen immediately, but it will happen. And as it does, millions of wealthy liberals will leave the country. This scenario, at least in my mind, is a forgone conclusion. The only thing stopping it from happening is it hasn’t happened yet.

And, yet, there is Donald Trump.

Ron DeSantis

Trump simply will not get out of the way. He’s so lazy and stupid that baring something I can’t predict, even if he wins the 2024 election outright he could still start a civil war just by being himself. Trump is a massive quirk in American political history. Anyone else in his position — ANYONE — would have never have lost the 2020 election and he or she would not be slowly strangling American democracy in their second term.

Maybe something will happen that will force Trump to get out of the way. If that happens, then America will be full of Good Germans who are thankful that the “woke cancel culture mob” has finally be vanquished and America will, at last be “great” again. Whatever the fuck that means.

It will only be when the policies of our new autocratic government become personal that any of America’s Good Germans will feel a red line has been crossed. Of course, by that point it will be too late for people like me who will probably be in an ICE camp somewhere. Wish me luck.