Category: Tsar-A-Largo

Scenario: How An Invasion Of Ukraine May Play Domestically In The United State States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love to run scenarios, so here’s one about how the American domestic political system might handle a major war in Ukraine. I think the first thing we have to appreciate is how fucked up America is right now. Much, if not all, of our problems with COVID comes strictly from how everything, EVERYTHING, is seen through absolute lens of partisan politics.

This does not bode well for what might happen within the United States if faced with the biggest land war in Europe since WW2. A lot depends on how long the war lasts. If it’s a quick “love tap” on the part of Putin that lasts only a few weeks, then the “rally round the flag” affect would last long enough that we wouldn’t really have any problems.

But if Putin is nuts enough to try to take a huge portion of Ukraine and the war begins to drag out for months or years, then all bets are off. It could be that the United States really is so divided that not even doing something as basic as defending democracy as part of being the lynchpin of the post-WW2 global order is something we can do effectively anymore.

It could be that the war lasts the more the two sides scream hysterically at each other like they do everything else and, well, we — and the Ukrainians — will be fucked. The United States will not only be barely able to help Ukraine, we’ll barely be able to do our job as part of NATO.

All of this, of course, would embolden China in regards to Taiwan. Then we might have TWO major regional wars taking place, which, of course, would be marketed as WW3. Then throw in the DPRK wanting to get in on the action by shooting of ICBMs and testing H-bombs and, well, things would grow very unstable globally very quickly.

I only say all of this because it seems as though the United States is so absolutely divided that there’s no one issue — not even one about life and death like a pandemic — that we’re willing to put aside our political differences long enough to address. Doesn’t exactly make me feel too secure going forward into a potential major war in Europe.

I’m At A Lost As To What’s Going On Between Russia & Ukraine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I simply have no idea what to think right now about the prospect of war or peace between Ukraine and Russia. On one hand, the Biden Administration is acting like a major land war could happen at any moment in Europe, while the Ukrainians are puzzled as to why this is being suggested.

A number of things seem to be happening at the same time. Yes, the Russians are amassing a large number of troops near Ukraine. But what they aren’t doing is just as telling — they’re not sending in the necessary support infrastructure needed to do the the thing we’re all worried they will do: invade. What’s more there is definitely a momentum for a war between Ukraine and Russia to start sooner rather than later.

So, I don’t know.

I guess you might square the circle by saying that, yes, a war is going to happen soon, but just not as soon as the Biden Administration seems to believe. So, at some point in the next few weeks the war will start, just not as late as February 20th.

Or, put another way, something has to change. Something that makes it clear that what is going to happen one way or another. There is plenty — plenty — of time for things to calm down and go back to “normal.” It’s just that there is a real risk that it’s too late for Putin to back down without looking weak. Of course, there is the possibility that it will be the Ukrainians who back down at the last moment and all of Putin’s flexing will look really smart.

But everything is up in the air. I have no idea what is going to happen. We’re all just going to have to wait and see. It really could go either way at this point.

Let Slip The Dogs Of War: Are We Going To Make It To February 20th?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The growing conventional wisdom is Russia is going to wait until February 20th to start any war between itself and Ukraine. The reasoning is, Putin doesn’t want to overshadow the Winter Olympics and he waited until they were over the last time fucked with Ukraine in a big way in 2014.

Given that I’m always wrong, I suppose that’s a valid belief. But I have to note that things are moving really, really fast. There exists a momentum for a major war to start at any moment between the two nations. I struggle to see how we’re going to make it to the end of this week, much less the end of the month. For us to sit around for about a month until near the end of February seems a rather big stretch.

We seem to be careening towards war. Russia has established the construct of the conflict in such a way that for it to back down now — or just wait too long to start — will make it look like a fool on the global stage. There’s only been one time in my life when there was this much momentum for war and one side folded — NATO’s problems with Serbia about 20 years ago. All systems were go for a major war between the two sides and the Serbians choked.

So, that kind of thing is pretty rare. It could definitely still happen — and I don’t want a war — but on a macro level I think all systems are go for the war to begin within days, not weeks or a month.

But, again, I’m always, always wrong. Especially predicting what the Russians will do with Ukraine. So, we’ll see.

And You Though Our Bugout From Afghanistan Was Bad: What If American Civilians Come Home From Ukraine In Bodybags?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still am not convinced that there is going to be a war between Russia and Ukraine anytime soon. However, the Biden Administration HAS not only told Americans to bug out ASAP, but also given notice of possible impending military action on the part of the Russians.

I’m under the impression that we are supposed to have about 48 hours notice before Russian invasion, so maybe we’ve gotten that notice, and maybe we haven’t. Things are still very much up in the air. Biden does have a tendency to error on the side of being safe, so maybe he’s just freaking out in hopes of preventing a huge disaster.

Because that’s my current fear –a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War breaks out and it’s a far bigger disaster for the United States than our evacuation from Afghanistan was because I’ve been an expat and I know how ornery American expats can be. I suspect that Ukraine is crawling with American civilians and the nightmare scenario is the war starts and we begin to see a lot of images of American civilians coming home in bodybags.

It would all be very, very messy. I don’t think we really can comprehend what a fucking clusterfuck for everyone involved a general war between Ukraine and Russia would be. And the loss of American civilian lives as the war progressed would really amp things for for the American domestic public. That’s something they can easily understand — American living in Ukraine got trapped and died in large numbers.

Or, a little less dreadful, if the war starts and Americans are forced to become refugees in a mad dash to escape, that’s not exactly a great look for Biden, either.

But, hopefully, this is still just smoke and mirrors and nothing is going to happen.

A Great Reset


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s my personal conviction that if Russia attacks Ukraine in a big, historic manner this winter that it will mark the end of the post-World War 2 liberal order. The one that millions died for between the years 1937 and 1945. I say this because it would be the first time since 1945 when there was a war this big in somewhere as important as Europe.

There have been a number of invasions — most of them by the Soviets — during the Cold War — but they would be relatively limited compared to the damage that a war between Russia and Ukraine would cause. There would be refugees in the 100,000s and causalities in the 10,000s. It’s possible that Russia might set off a series of events within Ukraine that go far beyond anything they believe possible.

It’s within the realm of possibility that Ukraine might simply collapse into mass chaos. Far Right nationalists could spring up, powered by pure, white hot irredentism. What’s more, the United States is so mind-bogglingly divided at the moment that no matter what happened between Russia and Ukraine, once the war started China could very well be emboldened enough to attack Taiwan in the next few years (months?)

The most disturbing element of all of this is how, because of long term macro trends, the United States ship of state is sinking and sinking fast. Something big is going to happen to the United States between now and, say, January 2025 and there’s nothing we can do to stop it. Everything is in place and nothing is going to fix the systemic issues that will cause the United States to either slide into autocracy or have a massive, tragic civil war.

A Russo-Ukrainian War would just be the beginning of an epic, historic era of instability not seen since the inter-war period of 1918 – 1939. With the United States careening towards a dark, unstable future and the Russians having eaten a huge chunk of Ukraine, it could be open season across the globe in ways we’ve not seen in generations.

Take, for instance, the DPRK. The last few days have seen some ominous statements come out of Pyongyang. What happens if, in the middle of a Russo-Ukrainian War, the DPRK begins to saber rattle by shooting off ICBMs and testing H-bombs? That would only add to the global sense of chaos and instability.

And, remember, if two major regional wars were happening at the same time — Russia / Ukraine and China / Taiwan — it would be very hard for the American press to resist the temptation to brand it all World War 3. What’s more, as I mentioned, the United States is careening towards either autocracy or civil war no later than January 2025.

So. Enjoy these twilight days of stability. Things could get pretty lit pretty quick. Maybe within a few days.

Putin’s Miscalculation?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m no expert on this issue and you should probably ignore me with extreme prejudice, but here’s my hot take on what Putin’s war aims in Ukraine might be. First, we still don’t know that there’s going to be a war. All the signs point to a war — a major one — but it’s still possible that in the end all these troop movements are just one big flex.

Things have gotten so bad, of course, that if Putin did pull back he would look weak and intimidated by the West. But Putin works in mysterious ways, so that’s an option that’s still open.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s say Putin pulls the trigger instead of pulling back and we find ourselves with the biggest land war in Europe since 1945. Then what? Well, it seems as though Putin believes he can get what he wants through a combination of war and politics. He swoops in from the north, takes Kiev in conjunction with a massive offensives coming out of Crimea and Donbass and that will be that. At the end of the process, either he simply annexes eastern Ukraine or he’s able to force some sort of political re-organization of Ukraine so it’s under his jackboot from here on out.

I’ve learned two things I did not know recently. One is, the issue of mud in eastern Ukraine isn’t as big a deal as I thought was — there are plenty of roads for the Russians to ride their tanks on. And, second, eastern Ukraine geographically isn’t exactly the greatest place to stage a long-term insurrection.

So, apparently, if Putin can simply overwhelm the Ukrainians with enough arms, one can see why he might think he could get away with a major invasion of eastern Ukraine. And, yet, I don’t know about that. It seems to me the Ukrainians have enough sense of national identity now that Putin is making a major miscalculation.

The western, more European-oriented portion of Ukraine simply will not allow Russia to do what it wants to do. At least not without a fight. Every scenario you can think up about a major invasion of Ukraine by Russia ends with the same endgame — a resource draining war with the rump Ukrainian state that ultimately is the downfall not just of Putin, but the modern Russian state. The Russian economy is just too small — about the size of Italy’s — and the Ukrainians too determined for there to be any other outcome.

I’m not saying everything would happen in a straight line. There would be ups and downs and zigs and zags to this endgame, but on a long-term, macro level, that’s where all roads lead to.

But, like I said, I’m not an expert. In fact, I pretty much always get things wrong. So, buyer beware.

My Hot Take On The #Russian – #Ukraine Crisis For January 22, 2022


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m definitely not an expert, but here’s my novice hot take on what’s going on at the moment between Russia and Ukraine. If all of this is just a big flex on the part of Putin in hopes of getting “respect” from the West, then he sure is expending a huge amount of money to do so. Or, put another way, there comes a point when you just can’t have a massive portion of your military forward deployed, then pull back, without looking like a fool. The world community thinks you’re going to do something, so you might feel obliged to live up to their expectations.

It doesn’t make any sense to me that Putin would go through all this trouble just to turn around and say, “psych!” He’s up to something, something big. And the questions now are when and how big? Given what I understand about the issue of mud around Ukraine impleading any Russian advance, it seems as though sometime in February would be ideal.

At the moment, the sweet spot for any invasion is probably after the Winter Olympics, which end on February 20th. And, yet, I dunno. It seems as thought that might not be a consideration for Putin at this point. My current personal guess is any war between Russia and Ukraine might starts around February 15 or so.

I say that because a huge number of Russian forces are flooding into Belarus at the moment for “joint training exercises” that are supposed to take place between now and around the middle of February.

And, yet, there’s a big thing to consider — to date, I’ve been wrong all the time about what’s going on with Russia and Ukraine, so why would this be any different. So, it’s very possible that this really is just a big, foolish flex on Putin’s part and the spring mud will come and…nothing will have happened.

But I am keeping an eye on all of this. At the moment, the momentum is towards a major war between Russia and Ukraine. If that happens, it could collapse the entirety of the post-WW2 global liberal order to the point that we’ll see instability the likes of which we’ve not seen since the inter-war period of 1918 – 1939.

And to this how the United States is careening towards a “Fourth Turning” around 2025 and we could very well have something akin to a “Great Reset” with a Second American Civil War happening in conjunction with WW3.

Two Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Scenarios


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been brooding on what the political and strategic endgame of a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War might be. Here are two possible scenarios I’ve managed to come up with. Putin’s war aim this first scenario is simply a partial — but large –conquest of Ukraine using a hybrid of military and political force.

Putin’s primary objective would be to seize Kiev and overthrow the government there. He would use a pincer movement using forces he’s assembled in Belarus. At the same time, there would be a series of major attacks into Ukraine from the east and south. Once Russia took the Ukrainian capital, there would be a brief reassessment of how the war was going.

If the Ukrainian government sued for peace at this point, then the war grinds to a halt and everything is settled at the negotiating table. Ukraine gives up everything east of the Dnieper River and the general area of Novorossiya. Signing such a deal would, of course, cause the Ukrainian government to promptly collapse. But the Russians would begin to consolidate power in their newly acquired territory by drawing upon the large Russianized population in that part of Ukraine.

Then, some sort of fascist-like government would likely be formed in the rump state of Ukraine and we spend the next 10 years talking about the brave partisans deep behind enemy lines.

The other scenario would go like this — the Ukrainian government in Kiev has time to bug out, probably to somewhere in the far west of the country like Lviv. This would prompt the Russians to go well beyond the Dnieper River, heading towards Lviv itself for a final battle. This would be extremely risky on Putin’s part, but he might lulz it. In this scenario, he would totally re-organize the entirety of Ukraine to form some sort of Russian Union with the now-conquered Belarus.

But, this, too, would be a pretty crazy scenario for Russia. Even drawing upon a lot of sympathetic, Russified Ukrainians in the eastern portion of the country would not stop millions of Ukrainians — especially west of the Dnieper River to take up arms against the Russian jackboot. Throw in how much training and military material the West would be giving the Ukrainian Resistance and Putin is really, really playing with fire.

The last time the Russians invaded a nation that didn’t want it — Afghanistan — they lost everything. There’s no reason to believe the same would not be true with Ukraine.

My Current Guess is There May Be A Russo-Ukrainian War Between Now & Mid-February


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I have repeatedly been wrong with predicting anything to do with Ukraine or Russia. But here I am, trying again to predict the unpredictable. At the moment, it seems as though mid-February would be the sweetspot for some sort of an attack.

It would give the Russians time to get everything in order for the invasion and would be before the spring thaw. But, like I said, I get everything wrong, so who knows when it will happen.

It may never happen at all.

Another Interesting Map Depicting A Russo-Ukrainian Winter War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I found this on Twitter and it pairs up with the other maps I’ve seen that depict what the Russians might do if they invaded Ukraine. What’s so wild is all of this is happening with our eyes wide open. We know the Russians are planning something and yet there’s little, if anything the West can do to stop it. I think this is from a guy name Tom Rogan.