Category: Tsar-A-Largo

Hot Take: The Russo-Ukrainian War May Start February 20th


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of signs all point towards some sort of major military event happening between Russia and Ukraine on or around February 20th. The Olympics are set to end on that date. The Russians are set to rattle their nuclear sabers around then. And, in general, the Russians waiting until around then would allow the to get everything in place to strike.

Because the issue is — for all the Russian declarations about standing down and everyone going back to base, this is not, in fact happening. All the OSINT that I see on Twitter indicates that rather than standing down, the Russians are aggressively positioning their forces closer and closer to the Ukrainian border.

This is the point where I note that I always get things wrong. Always. So, I would take my prediction with a grain of salt. It could be that for various tactical reasons — the weather, Xi’s request for a week global peace after the Olympics, you name it — that it could be as late as February 26th.

Or it may not happen at all.

I can’t predict the future. But as of right now, the night of February 20th US EST seems about right. Though, the counter argument is the Russians would wait until Monday morning EST to get their maximum bang for their buck when it comes to shocking the American audience.

Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Scenarios


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

War
At the moment, it seems as though there’s going to be a major war in Europe. It hasn’t happened yet, so it still may not. It’s possible that a huge chunk of Ukraine will be eaten by Russia and a lot of people will die needless deaths. Along the way, the Ukrainian government might collapse.


Peace In Our Time
In this scenarios, we barely avert war because the Ukrainians give in to the Russian demands. But folding on the part of the Ukrainian government leads to a popular revolt within the citizenship and…and the government collapses, which given the Russians the excuse they need to…invade Ukraine.

This is All A Flex
It’s still possible that Putin is doing all of this just to fuck with us and rather than pulling the trigger one way or the other, he draws down his forces as suddenly as he built them up and we, thankfully, move on to something else.

My Hot Take On An Impending Russo-Ukrainian Winter War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Welp. Apparently we’ve been given our 48 hour warning for a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. It’s probably going to happen — if it does happen — at some point between now and no later than February 15 (probably the 14th).

First, we have to prepare ourselves for American civilian expats to come home in body bags. I’m assuming there are too many of them to leave in time. And there’s a chance that the entirety of Ukraine will go tits up soon after any invasion begins. So, there’s that to think about.

And, remember, the moment a war starts, everything in the United States will be thrown up in the air because there is a finite amount of air in the public sphere for attention. So, in a sense, Trump might escape AGAIN simply because we’re so busy thinking about 5 million Ukrainian refugees that we don’t have time to worry about his bullshit.

Or something.

And now, in just the last little bit, we’ve learned there is some confusion coming out the US government as to what, exactly, is going to happen. What I think is happening is Biden told allies he thinks Putin has made up his mind and that promptly leaked out. Meanwhile, the rest of the government is publicly saying Putin HASN’T made up his mind in hopes of preventing the whole thing having an air of inevitability to it.

I would, however, suggest you keep Twitter and CNN / MSNBC close for the next few days. Go time will probably be in the 6:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. EST time frame, whatever day it does — or doesn’t happen.

‘Hysterical Doom Shit:’ Of Trump & Classified Documents



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It takes a lot more than it did for Trump to make me angry. And my Traditionalists relatives think I’m being “hysterical” for thinking Trump is going to run again — especially if he gets into serious legal trouble — so, meh. Their only red line is personal when it comes to Trump — and by personal, I mean me dead in a ditch at the hands of ICE. THEN, and only THEN they will get upset about what an autocrat Trump is.

Then I’ll be dead.

And I won’t be “hysterical” anymore because I’ll be dead.

Fuck that, by the way.

Anyway, the news that Trump did on a massive scale exactly what Hillary Clinton was accused of when it came to classified documents enrages me. Makes me white hot with rage. Makes me pop a gasket with rage. Makes me want to throw myself into the five novels that no one in my family cares about. (That was the point of writing the novels in the first place — to give myself some outlet for my center-of-the-sun-rage over the Trump Administration.)

What makes me so angry is every argument that my Traditionalists relatives would make to knee-jerk defend Trump because they hate my politics could be used to defend Hillary Clinton in 2016. But any argument that I make that works too well is “bogus.”

The thing that makes all of this worse is, in the end, Trump’s eating of classified documents, his flushing them down the toilet, will only last less than one news cycle. So, Hillary’s “but her emails” lasted for months and months and months and Trump doing far, far worse is just a blip on the media scene.

I do have one question — what, exactly, were the nature of the classified documents Trump wanted to keep? Was he stealing specific documents that had to do with Russia, Ukraine, the DPRK or the Saudis? If any of those nations were involved, well, that takes the controversy to the next level.

Then it will be promptly forgotten. Trump runs again, (“No he won’t,” I hear you say.) wins and I get to be hysterical and peddling doom shit again.

Oh well.

Americans, Worry About Canada


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m not an expert on Canadian culture and or politics and this is just a gauzy reflection on what little I know about the place. But the key issue is — the current “Make Canada Great Again” anti-vaccine mandate trucker camp out in Ottawa is dangerous.

I say this because the entire anglophone world is in crisis. And, even more importantly, Canada has such a small population that the whole “5%” of the population rule to make a revolution is even more timely.

So, it’s at least possible to imagine a situation where the truckers spark something that is marketed as a “Right wing revolution” in Canada. This, in turn, would embolden the fucking insane Right wing nutjobs in the United States.

Or, put another way — keep an eye on Canada. It might grow a lot more unstable in the near future than any of us in North America — and beyond — may like.

Why Are The Americans Spooked About The Russians Around Ukraine Tonight?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about any geopolitical issue is you just never know. It’s why any discussion — especially on Twitter — about this or that potential geopolitical hotspot should be left to the experts.

But, lulz, that’s never stopped me before. So, here’s my unfounded speculation about why the US is flying surveillance aircraft at night over Ukraine, which apparently is very rarely, if ever, seen.

So, what does it mean? Why are they doing it now? What has spooked them into doing something so unusual. I honestly have no idea. But I do think we may be in something akin to the “red zone” that will span between now and, say, March 1st.

A lot depends on what Putin and Xi said to each other over the last few days at the Olympics. It could be that Xi gave Putin a greenlight to attack ASAP, or it could be all of this means nothing and we just wait and see.

But I’m going to continue to keep an eye on all of this.

Scenario: How An Invasion Of Ukraine May Play Domestically In The United State States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love to run scenarios, so here’s one about how the American domestic political system might handle a major war in Ukraine. I think the first thing we have to appreciate is how fucked up America is right now. Much, if not all, of our problems with COVID comes strictly from how everything, EVERYTHING, is seen through absolute lens of partisan politics.

This does not bode well for what might happen within the United States if faced with the biggest land war in Europe since WW2. A lot depends on how long the war lasts. If it’s a quick “love tap” on the part of Putin that lasts only a few weeks, then the “rally round the flag” affect would last long enough that we wouldn’t really have any problems.

But if Putin is nuts enough to try to take a huge portion of Ukraine and the war begins to drag out for months or years, then all bets are off. It could be that the United States really is so divided that not even doing something as basic as defending democracy as part of being the lynchpin of the post-WW2 global order is something we can do effectively anymore.

It could be that the war lasts the more the two sides scream hysterically at each other like they do everything else and, well, we — and the Ukrainians — will be fucked. The United States will not only be barely able to help Ukraine, we’ll barely be able to do our job as part of NATO.

All of this, of course, would embolden China in regards to Taiwan. Then we might have TWO major regional wars taking place, which, of course, would be marketed as WW3. Then throw in the DPRK wanting to get in on the action by shooting of ICBMs and testing H-bombs and, well, things would grow very unstable globally very quickly.

I only say all of this because it seems as though the United States is so absolutely divided that there’s no one issue — not even one about life and death like a pandemic — that we’re willing to put aside our political differences long enough to address. Doesn’t exactly make me feel too secure going forward into a potential major war in Europe.

I’m At A Lost As To What’s Going On Between Russia & Ukraine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I simply have no idea what to think right now about the prospect of war or peace between Ukraine and Russia. On one hand, the Biden Administration is acting like a major land war could happen at any moment in Europe, while the Ukrainians are puzzled as to why this is being suggested.

A number of things seem to be happening at the same time. Yes, the Russians are amassing a large number of troops near Ukraine. But what they aren’t doing is just as telling — they’re not sending in the necessary support infrastructure needed to do the the thing we’re all worried they will do: invade. What’s more there is definitely a momentum for a war between Ukraine and Russia to start sooner rather than later.

So, I don’t know.

I guess you might square the circle by saying that, yes, a war is going to happen soon, but just not as soon as the Biden Administration seems to believe. So, at some point in the next few weeks the war will start, just not as late as February 20th.

Or, put another way, something has to change. Something that makes it clear that what is going to happen one way or another. There is plenty — plenty — of time for things to calm down and go back to “normal.” It’s just that there is a real risk that it’s too late for Putin to back down without looking weak. Of course, there is the possibility that it will be the Ukrainians who back down at the last moment and all of Putin’s flexing will look really smart.

But everything is up in the air. I have no idea what is going to happen. We’re all just going to have to wait and see. It really could go either way at this point.

Let Slip The Dogs Of War: Are We Going To Make It To February 20th?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The growing conventional wisdom is Russia is going to wait until February 20th to start any war between itself and Ukraine. The reasoning is, Putin doesn’t want to overshadow the Winter Olympics and he waited until they were over the last time fucked with Ukraine in a big way in 2014.

Given that I’m always wrong, I suppose that’s a valid belief. But I have to note that things are moving really, really fast. There exists a momentum for a major war to start at any moment between the two nations. I struggle to see how we’re going to make it to the end of this week, much less the end of the month. For us to sit around for about a month until near the end of February seems a rather big stretch.

We seem to be careening towards war. Russia has established the construct of the conflict in such a way that for it to back down now — or just wait too long to start — will make it look like a fool on the global stage. There’s only been one time in my life when there was this much momentum for war and one side folded — NATO’s problems with Serbia about 20 years ago. All systems were go for a major war between the two sides and the Serbians choked.

So, that kind of thing is pretty rare. It could definitely still happen — and I don’t want a war — but on a macro level I think all systems are go for the war to begin within days, not weeks or a month.

But, again, I’m always, always wrong. Especially predicting what the Russians will do with Ukraine. So, we’ll see.

And You Though Our Bugout From Afghanistan Was Bad: What If American Civilians Come Home From Ukraine In Bodybags?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still am not convinced that there is going to be a war between Russia and Ukraine anytime soon. However, the Biden Administration HAS not only told Americans to bug out ASAP, but also given notice of possible impending military action on the part of the Russians.

I’m under the impression that we are supposed to have about 48 hours notice before Russian invasion, so maybe we’ve gotten that notice, and maybe we haven’t. Things are still very much up in the air. Biden does have a tendency to error on the side of being safe, so maybe he’s just freaking out in hopes of preventing a huge disaster.

Because that’s my current fear –a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War breaks out and it’s a far bigger disaster for the United States than our evacuation from Afghanistan was because I’ve been an expat and I know how ornery American expats can be. I suspect that Ukraine is crawling with American civilians and the nightmare scenario is the war starts and we begin to see a lot of images of American civilians coming home in bodybags.

It would all be very, very messy. I don’t think we really can comprehend what a fucking clusterfuck for everyone involved a general war between Ukraine and Russia would be. And the loss of American civilian lives as the war progressed would really amp things for for the American domestic public. That’s something they can easily understand — American living in Ukraine got trapped and died in large numbers.

Or, a little less dreadful, if the war starts and Americans are forced to become refugees in a mad dash to escape, that’s not exactly a great look for Biden, either.

But, hopefully, this is still just smoke and mirrors and nothing is going to happen.