Category: Tsar-A-Largo

Cognitive Dissidence: What The Fuck Is Going On With Russia & Ukraine?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m clearly not an expert on either Russia or Ukraine because I keep getting things wrong. But that doesn’t stop me from struggling to understand what the fuck is going on with the two nations at the moment.

Russia continues to build up troops around Ukraine to a level that it makes you think we’re going to have to imagine that Putin isn’t thinking just a simple smash and grab operation, but a general war. The reason why I can’t understand that this may be a real possibility is by every metric Russia could take a huge chunk of Ukraine, but it just couldn’t keep it.

Putin would be flirting with existential disaster long-term because even if the Ukrainian government sued for peace or collapsed the amount of partisans who would take it upon themselves to go to war against the Russian army on a personal level would be enormous.

Long term, Russia, just like with Afghanistan, would have to leave Ukraine to its own devices. I don’t know. I wonder what I’m missing.

I Fear A Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Before Orthodox Christmas


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. Putin really faked people like me out, didn’t he. There we were, thinking it was at least possible that he would strike this Christmas weekend … and then nothing happened. And, yet, there continues to be an alarming amount of evidence that Putin is up to something when it comes to Ukraine.

It definitely seems as though Putin is preparing the way for a major offensive against Ukraine pretty soon. The next deadline, at least in my opinion, would be Orthodox Christmas. It’s on January 7th this go round, so that would mean there is now a two week window for Putin to strike. That definitely jibes with the continuing saber rattling I’m seeing on Twitter.

Putin is now demanding that NATO assure Russia that it will never admit Ukraine. If he doesn’t get that security guarantee, it definitely sounds like there will be a price to pay for the West.

And, yet, this really could still be just a flex on Putin’s part. A very expensive flex. He’s known to occasionally do shit like this over the last few years.

Something would have to happen that made us all sit up and take notice. Something different that was a clear indication that Putin meant business this go around.

That, to date, has not happened. So, who knows. But the thing you have to remember is Trump would benefit greatly by there being a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. By the time it was over, the average person really might not care about what happened on January 6th and Trump could very well be named Speaker of the House by Republicans as a lulz.

Get ready for anything.

Why 2020 (2) Is Probably Going To Suck


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I wouldn’t get too complacent about 2022 being anything more than yet another pretty shitty year. Here are my Christmas Day predictions for why this is:

Lots of Old Powerful People
It is inevitable that someone like the Queen is going to drop dead next year. And with it, there will be a lot of talk about What It All Means. And it’s not just the Queen. There are any number of very powerful American politicians who are old, old, old.

Potentially More Deadly COVID Variants
It’s at least possible that next year, a much more deadly version of COVID will pop out and everything will get thrown up into the air.

Republicans Are Probably Going To Win Congress
It’s very possible that a very damning January 6th Committee Report will come out in the summer and…nothing happens. Republicans win in the fall like they would anyway and then we have the setup to civil war / autocracy in 2024 – 2025.

Wars and Rumors of War
It’s also very possible that there will be at least one major regional war somewhere in the world in 2022, which could so destabilizing the global order that something akin to WW3 happens.

Is The Attack In Lviv The Casus Belli The Russians Need To Start A Winter War Against Ukraine?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I honestly don’t know what is going to happen with this attack on the Russian consulate in Lviv, Ukraine. But the argument could definitely be made that it is the fig leaf necessary for Putin to invade Ukraine.

And, yet, for it to happen tonight EST, something would have to change big time. Hostile attacks against Ukraine on the part of the Russians would have to escalate VERY SOON to the point that we all sit up and take notice. Cyber attacks. Increased artillery barrages. I honestly don’t know enough about how things would go down. I guess it’s possible that all hell would just suddenly break loose sometime late evening today EST?

Or maybe nothing is going to happen.

It could be I’m way overthinking things. The actual attack was minimal, so lulz. The only reason why one might think it was a casus belli is, well, we all on edge and it would definitely make sense for something like this to happen right before a major invasion of Ukraine.

It really could go either way at the moment. It could be that nothing is going to happen, just as I have come to assume. But the next few hours will be telling.

When Might A Russo-Ukrainian War Begin?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m beginning to think I was wrong — AGAIN — to even contemplate Russia invading Ukraine anytime soon. But, I will note in passing that Putin has something of a deadline at the moment if he wants to lean into the symbolism of Christmas Eve – Christmas Day timeframe

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on Christmas Eve, 1979. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union officially dissolved at noon on Christmas Day, 1991. So, if Putin wants to change the narrative from “30 years since the end of the Soviet Union” to “Holy shit, the Russians have invaded Ukraine” they need to do it, like RIGHT NOW.

If it were to happen, Something Big would probably begin to happen mid-to-late afternoon EST. If we make it to Christmas Eve evening EST without a major Russian cyber attack against Ukraine or any number of other hostile actions, then, lulz, we’ve passed the “twofer” moment.

After that, it could be anytime between now and either Orthodox Christmas or Orthodox New Year’s that the Russo-Ukrainian War might begin. I’m beginning to think that, thankfully, for the near term, things are going to be a dud.

It may happen, just not immediately.

A Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Could Begin Any Moment (Or Not)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still very reluctant to believe a major war between Russia and Ukraine is about to break out, but there are some interesting metrics to look at of late. For me, the chief issue is exactly when that paratrooper drop is supposed to happen today.

If it happens in broad daylight, then, lulz, we can take it at face value.

But if it happens after dark, then I’m going to grow really nervous. And the later is happens at night, the more ominous its meaning would become. Because it would be a lot more difficult to track exactly where the drop happened. So, what if instead of Crimea and just to the east of Donbas, the airdrop was in Ukraine proper and the whole thing is a setup for a full blown invasion tomorrow, Christmas Eve?

There is so much I don’t know. Wouldn’t there be a lot of alarming scurrying be seen around Ukraine as everyone turned their tank on and started racing towards the border? Seems like that, unto itself, would take time. Enough time that it wouldn’t be Christmas Eve, but rather something closer to New Year’s. But what do I know?

All I know is the next 24 to 48 hours are critical. If we can get past that time, then I think we’ve passed an immediate danger. And invasion might still happen, but once you get pass starting a major war on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the end of the Soviet Union, then, lulz. You can pretty much do it anytime you want.

I’m always wrong, so I’m not prepared to say a war is actually going to start anytime soon — if ever — but it is something to keep an eye on for the next few days.

Mulling A Russo-Ukrainian War Starting On Christmas Eve


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, Putin loves to fuck with the West when it comes to his military plans. He always does things in such a way that it’s all very nebulous and up to interpretation until it isn’t.

So, when I heard that there were going to be paratrooper drops around Ukraine today and it was all a “drill” I took it at face value until something occurred to me — a likely first step of any invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be….large-scale paratrooper drops.

As such it’s at least possible that all those paratroopers are going to accidently on purpose fall not in Russian controlled territory but…whoopsie…inside Ukraine.

They would prep the way for a large scale invasion on Christmas Eve and away we go. I am still don’t believe any such thing is going to happen, but it is at least…possible.

That Report Of A Christmas Eve Start To A Russo-Ukrainian War Is Probably An Intelligence Op


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more I think the idea that the Daily Star, of all papers, would get a scoop on the beginning of a war between Russia and Ukraine was released as something of a psyop. It was released to them not because it’s not true, but MI5 or MI6 didn’t feel like sticking its neck out on something it could not absolutely prove.

So, it arranged to release what it did know to one of the least credible news sources in Great Britain, knowing that Americans wouldn’t know how dubious the source was and would just hear, “Russia to attack on Dec. 24th.” That way, if the attack DIDN’T come, then, it’s a lulz.

But if it did happen, then everyone would be so busy being aghast at what we were seeing on our TV screens to think about where we first heard that it might actually happen.

I still am very dubious about there being any war at all, but we’ll see I guess.

A Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Starting Christmas Eve May Help Trump Escape Accountability, Again


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If, as is currently being suggested, Russia is going to attack Ukraine in a major way on Christmas Eve, it’s very possible that all of Trump’s political and criminal concerns will simply fade away. Such a huge war in Europe would suck up all the attention in the United States and dramatically change the domestic media narrative.

Instead of things like COVID19 and Trump being a seditious piece of shit, all those scary images of war in Europe and the prospect of WW3 will be what everyone will be talking about. I still think there is a decent chance that Trump and Putin still talk to each other and Trump knows it’s not the 2022 mid-terms that will save him, but rather Putin invading Ukraine this year that will save him.

The fucking Patriot Party flag. Cocksuckers.

By the time we come to grips with what is going on with Ukraine, three crucial months may have elapsed. We’ll wake up from our daze to discover, mysteriously, that Trump has gotten off scot free and is well on his way to becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.

Or, put another way, on paper at least, Trump’s historical work isn’t done quite yet. He still has to finish the job he started. And even if he somehow doesn’t become president again, someone else is going to murder American democracy. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat and either we slip peacefully into autocracy or we have a civil war.

I still don’t know which one it will be, but I’m leaning towards a peaceful transition into autocracy. I will have a better sense of things in 2023, once we find out if Trump is going to be named speaker or not.

Holy Shit, Is Russia Going To Attack Ukraine Christmas Eve?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

According to somewhat dubious reports in the British press, British intelligence believes there is a “strong possibility” that Russia will invade Ukraine on Christmas Eve.

Now, I’m of the opinion that this isn’t going to happen for a lot of reasons, chief among them being Ukraine is going to blink and give Russia whatever it wants. But if a huge war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, it would definitely be enough to throw American domestic politics into chaos.

I say this because Trump is such a Putin knob polisher that just Trump blabbing about how Ukraine “isn’t a real country” could be enough to cause something of a civil war between MAGA and the Republican Establishment. Or not. Trump has such absolute power over Republicans that could be a moot issue.

And, as I understand it, there are two historical issues that would lead Putin to attack on Christmas Eve. One, that is same day the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and, two, it would change the narrative about the 30th anniversary of the demise of the Soviet Union.

It would also change the media narrative in the US. It’s possible that the January 6th investigation will fade into oblivion because we’ll all be glued to our TVs watching the Russians start a massive war in Europe that might be compared to WW3. I still believe Trump may know this and he knows that all his political problems will fade away as everyone’s attention turns to Russia-Ukraine.

But we still don’t know yet.

Stay tuned.