Category: Tsar-A-Largo

We Need To Talk About Maggie Haberman


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the less I care about Maggie Haberman and her closeness to Trump. Some of this comes from how pointless it all is — she’s member of the media elite. As such, any time some hayseed rube like me points out much of her reputation comes from TrumpWorld scoops netted through…uhh…access journalism, it’s just scoffed at by her fellow nattering nabobs of negativism as not understanding what journalism is.

One of the key issues in this meaningless media kerfuffle is how nebulous and vague it all is. Yes, Ms. Haberman is a good journalist who is well respected — and defended — by her peers. And, yet, it’s also self-evident that she’s close enough to TrumpWorld that the average person is within their rights to be a bit squeamish about it all. It’s like how if your best friend breaks up with their significant other, there may not be any hard and fast taboo about dating their ex, but you try to at least wait a little bit before jumping in the sack with them.

As such, Twitter people get angry about Ms. Haberman bringing down the latest morsel of TrumpWorld news and her Twitter liberal peers get VERY UPSET that anyone might not see such morsel as just another example of how great a reporter she is. So, it’s something of a stalemate.

So, I think I’m going to go back to cursing the bread and pondering if it’s going to be civil war or autocracy that we face between now and January 2025.

The Secession Crisis of 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me get one thing out of the way: I hate violence and am in no way advocating civil war. (Never thought I’d write that.) But I’m aware that I’m beginning to drift towards pretty much saying, “Welp, it’s going to be autocracy or civil war, so…” But that’s very much an abstract, rhetorical stance. I would much rather we just punt this problem down the road an have neither autocracy nor civil war.

I’m just worried we won’t have that choice anymore.

To put things in historical perspective, this was 1861 not 2021 and you were a Northerner given the stark choice of political subservience to Slave Power for the foreseeable future or throwing your lot with breaking an egg to end the division in the country once and for all, you would at least have pause for thought about which option.

One last thing before I continue — even if Cyber Ninjas manage to pull a Trump victory out of their butts in Arizona, there’s every reason to believe that it will only result in a collective shrug. Trump will run around, screaming at the top of his lungs that he’s really POTUS…but it will remain nothing more than a talking point of MAGA cocksuckers who will add it to yet another way to “own the libs” when fighting with Twitter liberals. So, for what I’m about to sketch out to happen, Trump would have to lean into his cult of personality. And, to date, Trump has proven himself to be so fucking lazy that he didn’t even use basic autocratic techniques in 2020 to steal an easily stealable election.

Having said all that, let’s begin.

As I understand it, the clusterfuck shame recount of Arizona votes by Cyber Ninjas is going to wrap up in mind-May sometime. So, for the sake of argument, let’s say the “prove” that Trump “won” the state. What happens? Well, it’s difficult to know for sure. There are plenty of concrete things Trump COULD DO, but he’s soooooo fucking lazy and stupid that his natural inclination will be just to run around the country screaming at the top of his lungs that he’s really POTUS.

It could go either way.

It’s very easy to imagine that there will be rumblings of “nullifying” the Biden Administration on a state level in states like Oklahoma, Montana, Iowa, Arizona, Utah, North and South Dakota and Kansas. But it could be just rumbling. The idea of secession may just remain mental masturbation for far Right Wing talk radio and that’s it. In real terms, talk of “nullification” or “secession” will be just that — talk.

And, really, the only way I could see Trump even becoming all that much of an issue is there is a dynamic similar to January 6th that takes place, only on a national scale: Trump’s wink wink nudge nudge behavior about him really being POTUS is taken seriously and literally by the state legislatures of the states I mentioned and they first say they’re not going to recognize Biden as POTUS then before you know it, they’re calling state conventions to leave the Union unilaterally. If it happened, it would likely happen so fast that any secession crisis would be in full swing by July 4th.

Those are the easy states because they’re pretty much just white people and their populations are small enough that if they collective decided to YOLO it that they could get a lot farther than you might think.

The problem for all involved, of course, is once the Secession Crisis really gained momentum, Trump could then do what he always does and just be an avatar. He would get so fucking excited that he might be POTUS again that he would say and do things with total disregard for the consequences.

It would be when bigger states like Michigan, Indiana and Ohio started to want to leave the Union that big, big problems begin. And, of course, there would be the problem of Portland being potentially attacked by the rest of Oregon. Once we got this far, then you have the issue of the South.

There’s just no way to imagine a situation where African Americans in the South would just lulz any attempt at secession on the part of the old CSA. This whole thing would be a setup for a race war of historic proportions.

At this point, some cold hard facts would begin to sink in Trumplandia. One, the economies of their most secure states are very small as are their populations. Their big states would be extremely unstable because of African Americans probably being in open revolt. And, really, if there was a Second Civil War, there would be no assurances that things would ever be put back together again.

The United States could be balkanized into rump USA and Trumplandia and that would be that. A lot would depend on if California decided to stay and fight or if it took the broader secession crisis to leave as well. I have no idea what would happen.

Anyway, that’s what I got right now. I generally believe this dystopian nightmare, if is to happen, will happen in the 2024-2025 timeframe because of MAGA Congress nullifying Biden’s re-election. But, who knows, maybe Trump will get his wish to destroying the United States sooner than I expected.

Hopefully, it’s all going to be a big dud.

How American Democracy Dies


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Right now, it’s been established that the only way a Democrat President can successfully name someone to SCOTUS is if Democrats control the Senate. What Republicans want next is establish that the only way a Democrat ever becomes president in the first place is if Democrats control Congress.

In 2024-2025, there is a serious chance that Republicans will make an all out push to make end American democracy once and for all by nullifying a Biden re-election via their control of Congress. And that, my friend, is going to be the moment of truth.

That is when the stark choice I’ve constantly been talking about will occur: autocracy or civil war.

Center-left people in the United States, because of Bush V. Gore, have been conditioned to shut up and accept defeat via a quirk in the system that is upheld by the courts. It is very, very easy to imagine a situation where there will be something of a closed loop when it comes to POTUS.

Because of voter suppression and gerrymandering, Congress will always be controlled by Republicans. In turn, it will become conventional wisdom that we just have to accept that Republicans will nullify any Democrat win and, lulz, sucks to be you. Then we just drift into a very autocratic future where MAGA gets to enact its vision of an America that is identical to Putin’s Russia.

There will be a lot of demonstrations and lots of chatter about how “weak” this or that Republican Administration is, but in the end 30 years from now we will have had a succession of MAGA Republicans who are more and more successful at maintaining power. Throw in a MAGA push to get a Constitutional Convention and there will become a point where we have an identical situation to modern Russia — a huge swath of the population will grow up to know no one but a President Pompeo or President Hawley.

And then gradually it just becomes accepted that ICE is our FSB and if you oppose MAGA you get pushed out a window or thrown into a weaponized ICE Camp. Cruelty will be the point for generations to come.

But.

And this is where we learn how “exceptional” America really is. Is the macro lunge towards autocracy simply the normal progression of our democracy or are things going to be more like the 1860s when we have a massive crisis and then pretty shocking renewal of our American Covenant? Trumplandia will be at its weakest during its birthing process.

It’s at least possible that MAGA Republicans will bungle the transition from democracy to autocracy and there will be a civil war. And, as such, given the strength of Blue States when it comes to their populations, political unity and economies, that instead of Trumplandia, we will have a very blood, very turbulent few years and come out the other side with our democracy redefined and stronger than ever.

The only reason why I frame things this way is to make it clear: there will be no middle ground. Everyone will have to, on an existential level, make a decision and pick a side. No matter if we become an autocratic managed democracy like Russia or if we have a civil war. The time for punting problems down the road has come to an end. We are no longer in normal times.

America is tearing itself apart and MAGA demands are going more radical. And, in a very weird way, one could say that their greatest strength going into whatever clusterfuck we stumble into is also their greatest weakness: Donald Trump.

Trump is — and always has been — nothing more than an avatar. And, as such, it’s easy to imagine he being the specific reason why what could otherwise be a peaceful transition into an autocracy might be bungled pretty severely by MAGA and they blow their opportunity to be a permeant ruling minority.

I have no easy answers for you. I can’t give you a Vox corporate liberal explanation as to what to do to keep your family safe when all this happens. Good luck. You’ll need it.

Trump Is Politically Above The Law Now Because of Barr’s Lies


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are dark, guys. And going to get a lot darker.

There’s a lot of talk about how we’re learning more about how exactly Bill Barr saved Trump’s sorry ass when he “mislead” Congress over Trump’s obstruction of justice in regards to the TrumpRussia scandal.

But it’s too late on a political level. Not only do the two sides now have an established orthodoxy about what happened, even if you were able to pin down your typical MAGA person that Trump did, in fact, obstruct justice they would simply wave their hands and say it’s “moot now,” “it’s time to move on” or mumbled something about “orange man bad.”

The crux of the issue is the Mueller Report was the last gasp of the Watergate era narrative of how a major presidential scandal was supposed to play out. It was our one shot to destroy Trump politically and we totally blew it. Trump is now completely above the law on a political basis.

How Trump’s crimes are framed has changed. Now that’s been proven that Trump’s cult of personality is so absolute that he can incite an armed insurrection and STILL not have any accountability, then, well, lulz.

The thing is, we have to stop talking about how the Republican Party is in its “death throws.” The exact opposite is true — it’s growing stronger and more hateful by the moment. The United States is far more unstable than any of us could possibly imagine.

It’s easy to sketch out a scenario — or several — whereby there’s something akin to a civil war in the United States before the end of 2021. And the center of it will be Donald J. Fucking Trump. He’s such a dingdong that he could very well simply, without thinking about it, run around saying he is the “real” president should Cyber Ninjas “prove” that he “won” Arizona.

A number of MAGA dominated states could take him both literally and seriously and call conventions to leave the Union. Then he will squirm and try to — like he always does — to have it both ways. He will on one hand say he doesn’t support such efforts but on the other hand say that obviously they have a right to do such a thing since OBVIOUSLY he won the election.

The end result of this clusterfuck is we have a civil war now, and not in the 2024-2025 timeframe.

‘Triage’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is careening towards a very dark and tragic future. I can’t predict the future, but the there are some titanic forces at work in the United States that are tearing it apart on an existential level.

I struggle to imagine any situation where the United State avoids significant political violence up to and including an actual Second American Civil War. The key issue is what, exactly, pushes us past the breaking point.

There are a wide array of scenarios that one can think up at this point. Everything from the importune death of major political figure to the bogus Cyber Ninja recount in Arizona magically “proving” that Trump won the state might be enough to cause the most powerful country in the world to buckle in a rather spectacular fashion.

But none of them have happened yet. It could be that we’ll just do what we always do, which is punt the problem down the road again a few more years. Yet, even if we do manage to punt this crisis down the road, we will likely reach a dead end in the 2024-2025 timeframe.

My current fear is the same dynamic that we saw with the January 6 Capitol Insurrection will happen again on a much larger scale should, say, Cyber Ninjas pull a Trump “win” out of its butt in Arizona: Trump will be so busy crowing about how he “really won” that he won’t notice that his followers have lost their fucking minds and called conventions in a number of states to leave the Union.

By the time he gets around to saying, “sorry, not sorry” it will be too late. There will be a civil war and he’ll be at the center of it woefully unprepared for any sort of actual “war time” leadership. Then were will probably be a coup by any one of a dozen would-be MAGA Republican autocrats.

Good times!

So, the point is, we have to start thinking seriously about what we’re going to do should the collapse come. I wish I was smarter. Then I could layout some sort of practical approach the America’s impeding doom. I got nothing.

Maybe someone smarter than me can figure that out.

Marie Yovanovitch & Trump’s ‘Big Boy Crime’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I keep writing about this because it’s dark and it bothers me. It bothers me that we’re not paying attention to the implications of the recent FBI raid of Rudy Giuliani’s place.

When the news first came out that Trump and Rudy were mixed up with Ukrainian goons to put American ambassador Marie Yovanovitch “through some things” I sat up and took notice.

Even at the time, it was obvious to me that something very dark was afoot between Trump, Rudy and the goons. But we were so busy thinking about impeachment and lulzing Trump destroying the country that for most people what exactly may have happened didn’t register.

But, in short, if you follow the implications of what we know, I think something like this happened: Trump was desperate for a statement from the Ukrainian government that would implicate Hunter Biden (and by extension, Joe Biden) in corruption. As such, the people who might give that announcement to Trump set up a quid pro quo — you get rid of Yovanovitch and you get what you want.

Now, here’s where it gets murky.

Trump was president, so in theory he could just have fired her and that would be that. But there is a lot of evidence that Trump was ranting about how she was going to “go through some things” and I think he was even more hysterical than that, putting an even finer point on how her physical safety was at risk. (I apologize for being too lazy at the moment to look up the exact quotes. But given how much this bothers me, I probably will be a tiny bit more professional in subsequent posts.)

Anyway, it definitely seems possible that Trump was so desperate to get his fake announcement that he was prepared to “terminate” Yovanovitch on a physical level using Ukrainian goons who were already stalking her in Kiev. They were getting so bad that the embassy freaked out and told her to get the hell out of town in the middle of the night.

So, what if what the corrupt Ukrainians wanted for their announcement was not just Yovanovitch’s firing but her death? What if THAT was the quid pro quo? And it’s not much of a stretch to imagine a situation where Trump was ranting about how she needed to be “taken out” without even realizing that the idiot Ukrainian goons, if they heard about such comments through Rudy, would take Trump both literally AND seriously and do just that.

If the FBI could find proof of such communication and direction between Trump and the goons via Rudy then…oh boy. That would be a quantum leap over and above even Trump’s direct involvement with the January 6th Capitol Insurrection.

But that’s a pretty big ask. I am painfully aware of how easy it is to speculate on anything to do with Trump then be shown for a fool in more ways than one. Yet, if the FBI had evidence that Trump — even in an idiotic manner — was wrapped up in a murder for hire scheme as part of a quid pro quo that would, at last, be Trump’s Big Boy Crime.

The Metrics That Indicate A Second American Civil War Is Closer Than You Think


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. 70% of the Republican electorate think Trump won
    This metric is not one that indicates a healthy liberal democracy. It’s one of those things where you can’t quite figure out the origin of such a Big Lie. The interaction between the base and the Establishment is such that both sides are to blame. But the end result is the same: a huge number of Republicans think Trump should really be president right now. This is the dark goo that would be the could very well spawn significant political violence in the very near future for almost any reason. You just need to put extra pressure on an already failing system.
  2. MAGA’s glorification of political violence
    It definitely seems as though MAGA Republicans have made the cognitive leap to running around murdering people for political reasons, given the opportunity. As such, if you combine this metric with the first one, then you have a very unstable situation indeed.
  3. The Sham Arizona Recount Effort
    It is easy to imagine a situation where this is the catalyst to a very volatile situation. If Arizona Republicans manage to “prove” that Trump “really won” the state, then that cause produce a cascading series of events whereby states like Michigan and Pennsylvania feel compelled to the same thing. Next thing you know, Trump is running around saying he’s the “real” president and because of a combination of rank stupidity and probably being a Russian agent, he stumbled, in a half-assed manner, into causing a second American Civil War.

    Ok, there’s a huge “but” to all of this.

    In this case, the “but” is while there are three major metrics that definitely indicate America is on the cusp of a civil war in 2021, there are also a number of things missing that indicate that if it does happen, it will be more like the 2024-2025 timeframe.

    One major missing metric is someone like Trump, but smart, organized and hardworking. Trump is nothing more than an avatar. He doesn’t have to do anything but be himself and racist, mysogynistic assholes love him. But that, in itself, is not enough to cause a civil war.

    A Second American Civil War would need pressure to be placed on our system by someone who had some vision and organization to at least attempt a straight autocratic play. While I could definitely see Trump riding the wave towards a civil war, it’s difficult for me to believe that he has the mental facilities necessary to actually start one himself.

    But in 2024-2025, we will have the passions of a presidential election to strain the system and MAGA cocksuckers chomping at the bit to not only “own the libs” by knocking their heads, but being willing to simply nullify any POTUS result they don’t like.

    THAT kind of stuff is what would push the United States into a civil war, if we don’t simply turn into a MAGA autocracy.

    Let me say again, however, that I can’t predict the future. We may somehow, magically, muddle through this clusterfuck long enough for Republicans to recalibrate for white people being in the minority. There’s no way that’s ever going to happen, but I guess we can pin the entire fate of the country on such a pipe dream if it helps us sleep at night.

America’s Undead Liberal Democracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a personal level, I’ve found that American political system now lacks the grease necessary for a functioning liberal democracy. I simply can’t talk politics with my conservative relatives because we live in different factual universes. We can’t agree on facts. And our strongest beliefs are at such absolute cross purposes that we can’t have any political conversation at all.

This is not good.

If people who disagree politically — especially people who are related — can’t engage in any political discourse then your liberal democracy has a pretty big existential crisis on its hands.

Because what happens is either one side begins to feel disenfranchised and comes to see the attraction of political violence or they tune out and you have an autocracy. That’s why we face such a stark choice in 2024: civil war or autocracy.

There are no easy answers. I have no idea what’s going to happen one way or another. But I do know that, if you just look at macro trends and do some back-of-the-envelope extrapolations we are so fucked. We’re in for some historic political instability in the next few years, culminating — one way or another — in the 2024-2025 timeframe with autocracy or civil war.

Again, I don’t have any easy answers for you. I have no idea what you should do. But it is definitely something to keep in the back of your mind going forward.

Existential Lulz: What If We Could Prove Trump Wanted Ukrainian Goons To Hurt Marie Yovanovitch & No One Cared?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA Republicans are so detached from the normal rules of traditional American politics that you can find your struggling to come up with a scenario, any scenario, whereby they would finally, at last, throw up their hands and say, “Yeah, that was pretty bad.”

I have come to believe that we could have video of Trump and Armie Hammer having cannibalistic sex parties at Mar-a-Lago and it would be a lulz. In fact, it gives us some insight into the MAGA mentality that they get really, really offended at the idea that Trump might be racist but when there was a rumor that there was evidence of Trump using the “n-word” the general reaction from MAGA was, “Well, how many times did he say it?”

The origin of this warped political sensibility is, of course, racism. The macro demographic trends that are marching us towards a future where white people are in the minority are putting enormous pressure on American democracy. What MAGA Republicans want, of course, is autocratic rule. Specifically, they want an American answer to Russia’s Putin. That’s who they thought they were getting with Trump…but he turned out just to be a ding-dong.

As such, it definitely seems as though 2024 is it — we either turn into a MAGA autocracy or there’s a civil war. What’s more, if there’s a civil war in the United States, it will probably lead to some sort of global “reset” as every simmering flash point across the globe explodes and many, many people die. The entire post-WW2 global order will end and everything will be up for grabs on a geopolitical level.

It’s really going to suck.

But back to the point of all of this — if there was absolute proof that Trump was aware (and maybe even directed) the efforts to physically harm Marie Yovanovitch would it even matter? Would anyone who was MAGA care? A lot would ride on what the proof was. It would have to be pretty concrete. No wiggle room for various interpretations.

Most likely, sadly, what would happen would be there would be a lot of shock and gnashing of teeth on Twitter…and then nothing. Trump would just lay low for a few extra months then he would pop back up, run for president in 2024 and probably win. So, we would have a person who tried to get goons to murder someone as president. Good times.

It’s shit like that that makes one realize how dark things are in the United States right now. The systemic racism at the heart of MAGA is so all-powerful that once they get power again, it’s highly unlikely they will ever peacefully give it up.

But I definitely would suggest you keep an eye on the Trump-Rudy-Yovanovitch situation. Trump is so fucking stupid that it’s very easy to imagine a situation where Trump both knew and directed the efforts to hurt Yovanovitch but it was done in the context of Trump having a poor grasp as to what he was doing. He would have been doing his usual bullshit and the goons on the ground in Kiev would be taking him seriously AND literally.

And, really, I wouldn’t get too excited even if Trump’s machinations against Yovanovitch were the end of his personal political career. There are at least half a dozen would-be American Putins waiting in the wings to do what Trump was too stupid and lazy to do: bring autocracy to America.

The future is very dark.

‘The Quiet Before The Storm’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I suggest everyone enjoy the less than two years we have left before Congress flips and Republicans control two out of the three branches of government. That will be the first step towards the very stark choice America will face in 2024: autocracy or civil war.

Now, there may be some variations on all of this — I can’t predict the future, after all — but our democracy is so weak and its politics so undead right now that I just can’t see the return-to-normal that we have going on right now lasting beyond 2024.

There are so many would-be autocrats waiting in the wings for Trump to make up his mind about running again and the push to nullify any vote that Republicans in Congress don’t like so strong that 2020 may be looked back upon as the last free and fair election the United States had. Of course, if we have a civil war and the “good guys” win, then after about five or so years of WMD-caused mass death we may begin to return to a normal — if very changed — American again.

It really bothers me how oblivious Twitter liberals are about how dire things are right now in the United States. We’ve been lulled into a false sense of safety because Trump is gone, but take one look at the continued lunacy of MAGA Republicans and you see more than enough to send a chill down your spine.

MAGA Republicans have already made the cognitive leap necessary to begin murdering people for political reasons. All that has to happen is some sort of undue, unexpected pressure is placed on our political system and the rest will take care of itself.

It’s logical, right now, to assume that pressure will come simply from the passions of the 2024 presidential cycle. But it could be something else — that happens sooner. If, say, Trump pulls a Scalia on us and simply dies of natural causes because he’s old, that event, in itself, may be enough to spark massive political violence because, lulz, MAGA cocksuckers will assume the Deep State murdered him.

But let me say again — I can’t predict the future. Anything can happen. But the only reason why the stark choice of 2024 didn’t happen in 2020 is because of one person: Donald Trump. If Trump had been the person people thought they were electing in 2016 and not a ding-dong, then we wouldn’t have had a free and fair election in 2020 and we would now all be living under the thumb of Trumplandia.

As I keep saying — get out of the country if you can. After about 2024, America is going to be a place anyone who isn’t MAGA is going to want to live in. Or there’s going to be a civil war and we’re going to bomb ourselves into the stone age so American Karens don’t have to worry about being “canceled.”