Tag: Autocratic America

The MAGA Pink Elephant In The Room


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the most aggravating things about Twitter these days is how fucking oblivious Blue Check Liberals are to how dire things are politically in the United States.

They still, to this day, spend way too much energy trying to parse out the non-existent logic of MAGA. Instead of saying, “Oh my God, the United States may buckle soon because of the rise of fascism,” they chuckle and giggle at this or that ostensibly stupid thing that a MAGA “thought leader” has tweeted.

All of this is, of course, a complete waste of time. Instead of writing snarky tweets about how bonkers MAGA is, they need to start coming up with ways for the average person to prepare for either autocracy or civil war. It would make me feel a lot better if there was a practical guide to surviving America’s coming political apocalypse that I could read.

As it stands, all I got is, I dunno…get a passport? Be sure to live in a part of the country that fits your politics? Otherwise, I got nothing. Because it’s clear to me that we’ve zoomed past the point of no return: by 2025, the United States is either going to be an autocracy or we’re going to have a civil war. No other options.

Or, if you press me, I will tell you I can’t predict the future and something REALLY BIG would have to divert us from that particular existential choice. Even then, it might just punt the problem down the road. It would have to be HUGE, like First Contact or something, for us to avoid our existential fate altogether.

What I want is a reboot of how we frame MAGA. Instead of seeing it as something to laugh at, we need to see it as the existential threat that it is. Those fuckers are out for blood as the January 6th insurrection proves. And, what’s worse, they’re creating this entire Lost Cause mythology around the event for their echo chamber to pivot to whenever they talk to people like me.

What’s worse, the echo chambers of the center-Left and center-Right no longer overlap at all. It used to be, in, say, 2016 that you might find yourself in a heated discussion on Twitter with some MAGA cocksucker. Now, I rant all I want to on Twitter and very, very rarely hear a peep from a MAGA person. This is not good because apparently both sides have completely give up trying to debate people who disagree with them. And if they do, they do it exclusively in the context of trolling.

We’re just not taking MAGA’s intentions seriously enough. Instead of ridiculing them, or foolishly trying to change their minds, we need to gird our loins for the very serious transformation in the United States that MAGA is going to force — be it autocracy or civil war.

Why I Think Mini-Trump Glenn Youngkin Could Win In Virginia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The gubernatorial race in Virginia is a prime example of something that is now an alarming political fact of life: we can’t stave off electing fascists forever. Even our barely functioning democracy still has the traditional ebb and flow of one — inevitably, Republicans are going to win major offices again.

It just so happens that it’s Virginia’s turn.

Here’s my back-of-the-envelope reasoning for thinking Glenn Youngkin will probably win the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial race. The first reason is Virginia has had a lot of Democratic governors one right after the other and, just in general, people are probably itching for a change. Advantage, Youngkin.

Meanwhile, he’s really slick. He wants to square the circle by both being a MAGA cocksucker while also having a thin veneer of being a “traditional conservatives Republican” who “gets things done.” This thrills rural voters in Virginia who are as fascist as they come. Virginia is a hotbed of anti-democratic, autocratic sentiment.

As such, he’s probably going to win.

Now, being a fucking MAGA shithead cocksucker, all he cares about is winning and power. That’s it. Once he gets it, he’ll toe the extremist line of any other MAGA cocksucker. He’s repeatedly said as much, and, yet, to date, these statements haven’t gotten any traction outside of the MAGA echo chamber.

As such, the moment he shows his true colors, the majority of Virginians — who are extremely moderate — are going to freak the fuck out. By the time he leaves office, the damage will have been done. The state will be just another polarized state that lies smoldering in its wreckage.

The curve ball in all of this is if Virginia has a MAGA governor when the civil war comes around 2025, well, my predictions that the state would implode if there was a such a war will be pretty prescient.

The Bolts Are Popping Off The United States At An Alarming Rate


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There seems to be two types of people at the moment — those who see that the United States is careening towards a dark and unknown future, and those who don’t. The thing about the modern Republican Party is the most surreal, extreme position of the ultra Far Right is now their baseline position.

And all of this happening in the broad daylight.

Ultimately, what may happen is we’ll become an autocracy and most of the country won’t notice or care. They won’t care until, of course, it becomes personal and then they’ll care A LOT. But for the most part, America will become a nation of Good Germans who know to keep their heads down, “play by the rules” and just be happy they don’t risk being “canceled” in any way ever again.

It’s loudmouth people like me who have had the luxury of being able to be very vocal kooks because I live in a free country who will suffer. The autocracy is not an abstract for me — in very real, concrete terms, I know I may die at the hand of a ICE agent if the United States becomes a traditional autocracy. That sucks. At least for me.

Another thing is, all the policies that MAGA Republicans so desperately want to enact to “make America great again” are almost universally politically destabilizing. They want an America where only the poors pay taxes. The States already suffer from severe income inequality — just wait until we turn into a first world version of Brazil.

This is where we have to be honest with ourselves. If we are, then we will realize that there’s a decent chance that there will, in fact, be a civil war of some sort in the United States at some point in the next, say, decade. WMD will be used and we’re going to bomb the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the world into the stone age by our own fucking hands.

If this does happen — it may not, we may just peacefully become an autocracy — then WW3 will happen too and billions will die around the globe. Our only hope is after the dust clears the “good guys” will have won and a new international system will be established. Hopefully, it won’t be too late for us to do something about global climate change and humanity will, at last, start to the think collectively on a global scale.

Who am I kidding. That will never happen. We’re doomed.

Minority MAGA Republican Rule (Or A Civil War) Is Now Inevitable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Traditional American liberal democracy is beyond saving. All the pieces are in place for an autocrat to be elected by hook or by crook in 2024. Since form follows function, within a few years there will be a Constitutional Convention, the media will be purged, the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and I will be pushed out a window.

Or we have a civil war.

We’re way pass the point of no return. The Republican Party has been completely consumed by the fascist MAGA faction to the point that we are left with no wiggle room. If the Republican Party at any point in the future has it within their power to negate a Democrat win, they will. This is now a law of political physics. An absolute.

And if that doesn’t happen, we have some sort of civil war and use WMD against our fellow Americans. Again, that’s the only option. I just don’t know when we’re presented with that particular choice.

Of course, the argument can be made that if MAGA belly flops in 2022 off-year elections then maybe, maybe they might not have absolute control of the Republican Party. But if you give that any thought, you realize there are two major problems with this wishful thinking. One, lulz. Two, even if Trump himself is seen as the loser he obviously is, there are a half dozen would-be autocrats waiting in the wings to do exactly the same thing he did only without him — Trumpism without Trump.

America is “about to go through some things” as they say. We’re fucked. On a macro political history level, we’re totally, utterly fucked. This is the end. I don’t have any easy answers as to what you can do to prepare. If I did, I’d be working for VOX or New York Magazine.

But we’re in for a very bumpy few years with no obvious endgame between the two existential choices of autocracy or civil war.

We Have Got To Talk About Sen. Marsha Blackburn


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn has go to be one of the most dangerous Senators. Apparently, she was some sort of “image consultant” before becoming a Senator and it shows — she definitely manages her own image as a MAGA diehard ding-dong.

She’s of interest to me because she’s one of numerous elected MAGA officials that I believe would actually take the final step of leaving the Federal government to be the basis of some sort of Trumplandia government. Because, really, isn’t that where this is all heading? That’s the final step in this tragic political melodrama.

If Red States start to leave the Union, Sen. Blackburn and others are going to form a rump US government somewhere like Mobile. Though, given how a race war will have likely erupted in the South by that point, where exactly would they meet? Trump’s place in Florida? Appomattox in Virginia? Somewhere in the Mountain area?

Anyway, Sen. Blackburn definitely seems about as politically craven as they come. And, really, the scary part of all of this is it’s not like she’s an outlier. A huge swath of the elected Republican Party has — at least relative to me — fucking lost their minds.

They no longer believe in America’s traditional liberal democracy and (apparently) want to turn the United States into something akin to the autocratic managed democracy found in Russia. (Ugh.) And, really, at the moment, I don’t see anything stopping them.

I will, in fact, be flabbergasted if we go the other (even more painful direction) and have a civil war of some sort so at least the dying embers of democracy have at least a fighting chance of renewal.

Regardless, we have to accept that the United States is careening towards an extremely unstable era in its history.

What Is The MAGA Endgame?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A lot of macro political trends are careening towards coming to a head around January 2025 when Congress is set to certify the vote of the next presidential election. That I have to worry this much about what happen at that point is pretty deep because it indicates that we’ve reached the point where each Federal election is existential.

Our future.

If Republicans gain power again, that’s all she wrote — we’re well on our way to becoming an autocratic managed democracy like Russia.

But I struggle to understand what, in concrete terms, MAGA wants. Whenever I talk to my conservative relatives, they give me a lot of abstract fears and that’s it. They want to end Cancel Culture. They want a secure border. They don’t want children to experience the horrors of Critical Race Theory. But what does any of that actually mean?

Republicans are such fucking fascists now that we have to stop hoping this or that thing is going to save us. No one is going to save us. We have to save ourselves. Republicans, on an existential, institutional basis no longer believe in democracy and want the very thing I fear — autocracy.

They want minority political rule and an end to the natural ebb and flow of a liberal democracy. They want a one party state where THEY are “just left alone” but dem dar libtards are sent to Trump branded ICE re-education camps or push out a window.

I also still struggle to understand what, exactly, is fucking with our politics. Is it just race? Is that it? Or is it also the sense among bed rock conservatives that since about 2012 America’s society has been changing at an alarming rate and their poor little conservative brains can’t process it? Whatever it is, the disconnect between the center-Left echo chamber and the center-Right echo chamber is pushing us to the brink.

The United States is now two nations — Red, rural America and Blue urban America — who hate and misunderstand each other. The Republican Party is now an anti-democratic fascists party that will stop at nothing to transform the country into a white Christian ethno state.

And so, again, it seems as though at some point between now and January 2025 we’re going to face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. If we choose autocracy, what will happen is people like me will scream at the top of our lungs that we’re no longer a democracy, while Republicans will snicker that we’re “a constitutional republic.”

The conservatives in my family will either freak out whenever I mention that we’re now an autocracy or they’ll simply shrug and say so what, what does that even mean. They will say this, of course, until ICE comes after ME and then they will want me to shut up.

Which I will not do.

So, lulz, who knows.

The United States Continues To Drift Towards Autocracy (Or Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s clear to me that the United States continues its inevitable drift towards a MAGA themed autocracy. It was only because of a very specific set of historical circumstances that Trump did not win a second term. So, as I keep saying, we’re an autocracy without an autocrat.

The key thing to consider about all of this is the very Powers That Be enablers who should have known better during four years of Trump are doing exactly the same goddamn thing they did then. Rather than showing any backbone whatsoever, they fully embrace the MAGA movement which is pretty brazen fascism.

And it’s happening right out in the open. There’s virtually no push back and what pushback that exits is usually moot, or doesn’t really do anything or is simply gesture politics that doesn’t address the issue at hand: MAGA is fascism and is going to turn the United States into a fascist state the moment it can. Or, if you really want to get all nitty-gritty about it — Trump has done his job. He’s paved the way for someone younger and more focused to purge the media and weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure.

Trump, himself, is simply too lazy, stupid and weak-willed to knock the heads necessary to make transition the United States into cold blooded fascism. But about a dozen other people are more than willing to do what he can’t — or won’t — do.

Now there is a huge but in this dark, dystopian talk — an even darker, more dystopian scenario: a civil war.

So, everything is exactly the same as I described but for one thing — when we actually begin to transition into autocracy, Trump (or whomever) lets the situation get out of hand and states start to leave the Union. This would happen in the vaguely 2024-2025 timeframe.

I just don’t see anything stopping this existential choice of autocracy or civil war. But I’m often wrong and I’m apparently supposed to “calm down” because neither one of these options is going to happen. We’ll see, I guess.

Second American Civil War Scenario 2: The Congressional Certification Crisis Of January 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Of all the possible ways the United States may have a second civil war, one caused by MAGA Republicans in Congress balking at certifying a Democratic win in January 2025 seems the most logical.

The reason is, a number of things will come to a head. The entire Republican Party will be on the same page by that point — the Republican Party will exist, on every level, solely to serve the whims of Donald Trump. As such, if you are still a Republican — no matter where you may be in government — you will ignore any norm or break any law necessary to make Trump POTUS again.

This will happen with any Republican nominee, but let’s just say for the sake of argument that it’s orange ding-dong again. Really, given this cold hard fact, it’s very possible to imagine a situation where the United States grows extremely unstable the moment the polls close in November 2024. This will last until at least January 2025.

Every step of the process towards Congressional certification in January 2025 will be fraught with controversy, intrigue and uncertainty. If it begins to grow more and more apparent that Republicans simply will never allow a Biden win to be certified, one might begin to see Blue States make concrete moves towards some sort of secession.

The wild card on this issue is, of course, the U.S. Military.

The American military simply does not see itself as anything that could step in to keep the peace if America finally collapses at some point between November 2024 and January 2025. It thinks this way so absolutely as an institution that the case could be made it simply wouldn’t do anything at first if the country imploded because of a massive dispute over the certification of the vote in Congress.

Now, there is one way we could doge a civil war bullet and simply turn into an autocracy — Republicans throw the election into the House and Senate and because in the House each state delegation has one vote, Republicans win that way. This would give the media something to hang its hat on when it came it a need to explain to Blue States why they Need To Calm Down. The MSM argument would be that just like Gore lost in 2000 because of a Constitution fluke, Biden lost in 2024 because a rarely used part of the Constitution was invoked.

But it’s possible that Blue States will be so enraged by this point that even the best efforts of the MSM to calm everyone down won’t work. Trump — or some other MAGA autocrat — will be sworn in and the first thing he (or she) does is burn Blue States to the ground. We have a second, darker Reconstruction and thousands (millions) of Blue State people flee the country.

Before any MAGA person reading this spooges their pants at the idea that they will finally be rid of dem dar liberals and they will finally be “left alone,” I will note that if things have gotten this bad that WW3 will have happened, WMD will have been used and you — and everyone you love — could be dead.

But at least you wouldn’t have been canceled, right, cocksucker?

Anyway, “I need to calm down.” Orange man bad, yadda, yadda, yadda, fuck you, MAGA.

Second American Civil War Scenario 1: Cyber Ninjas Makes Us Do It


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This scenario is actually two scenarios. In the first scenario — the more logical scenario — Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” the Arizona and this sets off a cascading series of events. Suddenly, the pressure on other MAGA state legislatures to have similar recounts grows exponentially. In this version of the scenario it’s not until around November 2022 that things come to a head and, as such, Republicans feel compelled to make Trump Speaker of the House when they inevitably flip the House.

Trump, being Trump, ignores all of his other duties in the job to push for the impeachment of Biden and Harris for Not Being Him. He gets that quickly enough and then once the impeachment process goes to the Senate, he goes transactional and there’s enough political violence in 2023 that Senate Democrats “do the right thing” and convict (or force the resignation of) Biden and Harris “for the good of the country.”

Trump becomes POTUS again and we’re right were we were. Trump picks someone like Mike Flynn to be his new Veep and we’re actually far worse than we were. In this version of the scenario the “civil war” happens either in 2022 or 2023 (should the Senate not convict.)

I will note that am notorious for giving Trump a lot more guile than he actually has. He’s actually so stupid, lazy — and unwilling to be directly responsible for knocking heads in pursuit of being an autocrat — that, lulz, he could very well become Speaker and still manage to fuck things up and simply be an asshole with no power other than an office title.

The OTHER scenario in this situation would be that Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” and instead of waiting for other MAGA states to follow suit, just “winning” the single state of Arizona is enough to cause other MAGA state legislatures to demand the Biden Administration be “nullified” (somehow.) These Nullification Conventions quickly become Secession Conventions — at least in states like Texas and the lily white, small states of the Mountain and Plains areas.

A number of old CSA states would also (hope) to follow suit, but because of race these efforts either fail or start a race war of some sort.

The only reason why I think the latter version of this scenario might happen is Trump has become such a totem for white rage that if you combine this with the glorification of political violence found in the Right these days, you have a recipe for some major strategic miscalculations on the part of MAGA “thought leaders.”

If this latter Cyber Ninjas civil war option happened, all it would do is destroy the country for no damn reason. Or, hopefully, it would be a tragedy that would destroy MAGA for a very specific reason: they’re fucking cocksuckers.

Of the available potential Second American Civil War scenarios, a Cyber Ninjas induced one seems the most dubious because it relies upon MAGA being willing to actually risk their own destruction now, instead of a few years from now after they’ve marinated in their hate a bit longer.

But, who knows. I’m always wrong and no one listens to me, anyway.

The Real ‘Great Reset’ Would Be A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m vaguely aware that floating around in the bullshit world of MAGA is the idea of a “Great Reset.” It’s some sort of kooky idea that the Evil Deep State is working to establish the New World Order through some sort of Great Reset. Or some sort of bullshit. I’m not sufficiently interested in the idea to do a simple Google search to find how close I am to be right.

But it’s pretty clear that the real Great Reset would be a Second American Civil War. I’ve written a great deal about the historical determinism that is rushing us towards a civil war. The issue is — if the United States buckled for some reason, this would cause the entire post-WW2 Pax America to collapse as well. As such, talk about a Great Reset. World War 3 would break out and there really would be a Great Reset with no discernable endgame.

WMD of all sorts, shapes and sizes would start whizzing around the globe and as many as, say, 1 billion people could die. For what? Conservatives in the US are afraid a tone deaf racial comment they make may be recorded, go viral and they’re “canceled.”

And this doesn’t even begin to address how the DPRK could very well kick the United States while it’s down by nuking us because they can.

Anyway, I just don’t think MAGA realizes how their abstract need to “own the libs” via political violence is just a horrific idea.