Tag: Autocratic America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is how the Right Wing bullshit echo chamber works. People like Jesse Kelly and Jesse Watters rant about extreme things like “throne of skulls” and “kill shots” and, after a few weeks, such frothy rhetoric percolates its way down through the system to your angry, bonkers Uncle. Along the way, the hate is diluted, but it’s still there.

But I’ve noticed of late that the Jesses are really amping up the level of their bonkers advocacy of violence. I continue to read about Hitler’s rise to power and, needless to say, not great Bob.

Anyway, the point is — this is yet another metric that would lead me to believe we face the existential threat of autocracy or civil war in 2024 – 2025. And, just like with the rise of Hitler, all of this is happening in broad daylight. In fact, everything is aligning for us to slip peacefully into autocracy in 2025 and only the fact that people Jesse Kelly and Jesse Watters are two fucking cucksucking dipshits could the MAGA New Right self-own and we have a civil war instead.

As I keep saying — if Kelly and Watters would just fucking cool it, we will slip peacefully into autocracy and they will get everything they want without firing a shot. But they want violence for some weird reason. And as such, things will get existential and they could lose it all.

Of course a few million people could lose everything, too, by which I mean their lives when seized WMD are used during a needless, avoidable civil war. Ugh. Good luck

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The fact that so many people keep asking some variation of this question and end up and this very small Website is kind of depressing. But, here goes. I’ll answer the question for you.

Short answer: I don’t know.

Long Answer: Just wait and see.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
   Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
   It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
3. Trump 2024
   Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
4. Steve K Bannon.
   Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
5. Extreme negative polarization
   We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
6. A lack of shared values
   As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
   It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

A Second American Civil War is one end of a spectrum that has a peaceful slide into autocracy on the other end. That so many people have a Second American Civil War on the brain is, “Not Great, Bob.” Most Traditionalists think people like me who say a 2ACW is an actual, real possibility are “hysterical” and peddling “doom shit” for broaching the subject.

And, yet, a lot depends on what happens on a tactical level in late 2024 – early 2025. If human tumor Steven K. Bannon is successful with his “administrative coup” in the context of Trump running again and being a huge dingus and saying the fascist part out loud, then, yes, there is a good chance that Blue States will leave the Union — starting with California — and we promptly bomb ourselves into oblivian.

What’s worse, there are any number of scenarios you could game out where said 2ACW starts as early as next year. Should Trump drop dead of natural causes, or there’s a major political domestic terrorist event, it could be Red States that leave the Union and…we bomb ourselves into oblivion.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

For so many people to keep looking for an answer to the “Are we going to have a civil war” question which leads them here, that, in itself, is an ominous metric. It’s like how they are able to monitor COVID19 levels by monitoring the sewers in major cities. The popularity of this question makes one wonder if maybe we may have a civil war just because, well, a lot of people want to murder people they don’t agree with politically.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
   For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
2. Republicans have gamed the system.
   It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
3. Not Trump 2024
   Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
   
4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
   A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
   Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

But, honestly, I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy. That definitely seems our best bet at the moment. There will be a lot of bloodthirsty daydreaming about a civil war on the part of the GQP, but, in the end, President DeSantis — or whomever, will simply strangle Lady Liberty in her sleep and center-Left people will flee the country in hordes until they can’t anymore.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In any normal time, there would be no way in hell that I would support Liz Cheney for any reason. But these are not ordinary times. Winter is coming, as they say, and the clock is ticking for an enormous clusterfuck that would start in late 2024 to early 2025.

The United States is slowly — right in front of our eyes — transitioning into an autocracy. The center-Left is powerless in the face of the rise of autocratic fascism. Because of the Electoral College, we’re being lulled into a false sense of security about where things stand because the fact that the Democratic Party is actually an array of center-Left parties while the Republican Party is an actual fucking fascist party is being hidden from us.

The GQP is hell bent on destroying the Republic and, as such, it’s going to take people willing to stand on principle to stop them. At the moment, Ms. Cheney is the only person I can think of who makes me sit up and take notice and say, “Now, THAT is principled. That person could give us the leadership the save the Republic.”

It definitely seems as though we’re careening towards either the death of Lincoln’s Second Republic, or the birth of a Third Republic based on a new American Covenant inspired by somewhere like California. Ms. Cheney is all about what The Mooch calls “front stabbing,” just the type of thing we’re going to need from those Radical Moderates that need to exist to re-found the Republic should we have a civil war.

The really sad thing is we have a few years to game out how we’re going to defeat humor tumor Steve K. Bannon’s administrative coup and we’re not rallying behind Ms. Cheney the way we need to. If we’re going to defeat Red States, should things grow…uhhh…existential…for the duration of the crisis we’re currently in, AOC and Ms. Chaney would have to make common cause for the specific purpose of defeating MAGA.

If we’re going to defeat MAGA on the plains of war, we need to build out the political leadership and infrastructure to support such an astonishing event. If we don’t have a civil war, then we’re going to turn into an autocracy and an obscene number of center-Left people will simply vote with their feet and leave the country. (Until that becomes impossible, of course, after the autocrat gets mad.)

The point of all of this is — winter is coming. If we don’t want the United States to become a political clone of Russia starting around 2024 – 2025, we’re going to have to start to think outside the box. Forge strange, surreal alliances with people we may not agree with on a tactical level, but do agree with that we want to keep living in a liberal democracy.

I would suggest you start to read up on the First American Civil War, as well as the rise of the Nazis in Germany in the 1930s. Also, figure out what you believe in and what you’re willing to risk your life and sacred honor for. At best, we’re going to turn into autocracy peacefully and that will be that. At worse, we’re the most powerful nation in the world is going to bomb itself into the Stone Age.

The thing that isn’t going to happen is we continue to drift through history as white people in America become a minority. The rise of Trump, onto itself, should be enough to dissuade anyone from thinking we aren’t in for a few eventful years.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Despite the giddy statements of Rachel Maddow on this matter, ding-dong Trump being demonstrably less popular in real terms doesn’t mean jack squat. At least for the time being.

The reason is, Trump really is “too big to fail” for Republicans. Trump is the Republican Party and the Republican Party is Trump. To be Republican is to be MAGA. By definition. If you don’t support Trump (in public at least) in such an absolute extent that you come of as completely bonkers to anyone who doesn’t watch FOX “New” every night, then you’re a RINO or a Democrat.

There is no room for compromise on this issue.

So, to imagine a situation where Trump might be knocked out of his status as Fuhrer is simply unimaginable. Even for me, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where Trump isn’t the nominee and doesn’t become president again — if by hook or by crook — in 2025. We’re no longer a functining democracy and it just doesn’t matter how popular Trump is with the average person.

Trump has the entire edifice of the Republican Party and Bannon’s “administrative coup” will fill the gap if Trump isn’t able to win fair and square. And, at least in my mind, that’s the end of the story.

But, let’s imagine it isn’t. How might it happen? Something would have to happen that punctured Trump’s Der Fuhrer’s air of invincibility like, say, the Battle of Stalingrad did for Hitler.

Or, put another way, something would have to happen whereby Trump faced some accountability, any accountability in a way he has not, to date, faced any. The reason it might happen is there are at least a dozen would-be autocrats chomping at the bit to become extremely powerful and fabulously wealthy being America’s first autocrat. Mike “piece of shit” Pompeo is so cravenly obsessed with wanting to be our first autocrat that he’s losing weigh at an alarming rate.

For Trump to face any accountability, you would have to successfully attack him on a political level. That’s his power — politically he has such absolute power over his base, regardless of how popular he might be otherwise — that any racist, misogynistic dumb thing he says is already baked into the cake.

So, who has the means, motive and opportunity to change that? There’s really only one person.

Mike Pence.

If he pulled a John Dean and turned, on a political basis, state’s evidence against Trump, there is a least a greater-than-zero-sum -chance that people seeing Pence begin to blab about what a piece of shit Trump is might be enough to cause the Justice department to get its head out of its ass and finally, FINALLY charge Trump with something.

But even that is dangerous. Trump is just as likely to use any criminal charges as an opportunity to act like a martyr as he is fold. So, whatever Pence did would have to be pretty dramatic on a political level.

Or, to be even more political about things — someone, somewhere, would have to go out on a political limb to challenge Trump….and not be crushed. The moment is was clear that Trump was no longer The God King Of Republicans, then all hell would break loose because the natural political ambitions of all those other would-be autocrats would kick in an they would suddenly do everything to destroy Trump so it was THEY, not TRUMP would go to murder our democracy at last.

And, what’s more, having said all this, Trump is so bonkers, he always has the failsafe of leaving the Republicans behind and founding The Patriot Party. So, again, Ms. Maddow, I would cool it with any giddy predictions that Trump is going to just fade away and Twitter can go back to people taking pictures of their food.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not suggesting you should not vote. Please do! But going forward, you have to put your political actions in context. The United States is an autocracy without an autocrat. What does this mean? It means that, but for the want of a nail, the United States would be transitioning to a full-fledged Russian-style autocratic managed democracy at this very moment.

And, really, if you want to be clear eyed about it, this has really been the case since January 20th, 2017. Trump stress tested every element of our political system and, surprise! he gave half a dozen would-be autocrats the means to turn us into an autocracy once they get into power.

What pains me the most about all of this is that the people who should know better, the people who could single handedly save the Republic — conservative Traditionalists — are aligning with fascism. They are doing so because they are nervous about cancel culture, critical race theory and transgendered children. At the heart of all of this is the macro situation of an Republic slowly transitioning to an autocratic Empire in real time. And at its heart, the fact that Traditionalists would support fascism is more about race and shifting dynamics in gender roles than anything else.

The United States is growing very, very unstable. We’re a powder keg. And anything from Trump being indicted to a major domestic terrorist attack might be enough to cause states to begin the process of leaving the Union, which would prompt a civil war. Which side — Red or Blue — would start to leave the Union at some point in the near future (if we don’t become an autocracy) is still very much up in the air.

Let’s get back to the point of all of this — Republicans are strangling voting as a means of influencing the government. They only think elections that they win are legitimate. They literally only see democracy as a means to and end. If they win, democracy works. If they don’t then they have to “stop the steal.” It’s because of shit like this that I’m reading a huge tome on the rise of Hitler at the moment.

One person at the forefront of this slow-moving transition to autocracy is Steve K. Bannon. He is doing the hard work in the real world of making sure that on a local level GQP partisans administrate voting. The irony of all of this is, of course, that autocracy is so popular that if he would just cool it, he could very well get his autocratic rule without having to cheat.

But, lulz, fascists will be fascists.

As I keep saying — I have no idea if we’re going to have a civil war or slip peacefully into autocracy. The conditions are there for either eventuality. There is also a small chance that we may be temporarily governed by some sort of military junta as we struggle to avoid either one of the other two options.

So, again, please continue to vote and to be politically active. Please. But also be realistic. See things in context. Figure out what you believe in and are willing to suffer for in the real world. What are you willing to risk your life — and the lives of your family — and scared honor for? When things grow existential, are you going to flee the country or are you going to stand and fight to defend the Republic?

Things are dark and getting darker.