Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The MAGA New Right Stanning Of Hungary’s Orban Is Proof The Movement Has Gone Politically Septic


by Ender

One of the more alarming things to happen in modern American politics is how thirsty the MAGA New Right is for autocrats all over the world. The latest thug to have their Tiger Beat spread cut out and pasted on their bedroom wall is Hungary’s autocratic superstar Viktor Orbán.

Talk about what the fuck.

It’s astonishing that it feels like two eras — the late 1850s and the late 1930s — are fusing together in some sort of weird political Frankenstein’s monster. It’s like as if the leaders of Slave Power went on a tour of the Russian Empire and were impressed with how docile the serfs were. Ugh!

What really astonishes me is how all of this is happening is broad daylight and it’s not a huge scandal. It’s like how all those Republican Senators celebrated the 4th of July in Moscow — of all places — a few years ago. That was another what the fuck moment.

What we have to take seriously is the Republican Party is radicalizing in broad day light. It’s now a fascist autocratic white nationalist party. By definition, if it ever gains power again, it’s going to finally extinguish our undead democracy. Given that even an undead democracy has a natural ebb and flow to it, Republicans are going to gain power again.

And they’re probably never going to let it go.

Any discussion of this clusterfuck, however, has to address that the very thing that has allowed the MAGA New Right to gain so much power in broad daylight — Trump’s “chaos agent” nature — is also the movement’s greatest weakness. Trump flings off so much inept chaos just by existing, that he could very well start a civil war that would at least give Blue States a fighting chance at destroying the Republican Party cancer.

So, in a sense, Trump remains a macro historical wildcard. He has such absolute control over the fascist Republican Party that it’s possible he might transition us into an autocracy. And it’s also that because he’s a fucking idiot, he could bungle that same transition and cause a civil war that leads to the destruction of the Republican Party just as much as the first Civil War prompted the destruction of Slave Power once and for all.

But the fact remains — the Republican Party must be destroyed if we are to remain a free country. On a systemic, intuitional basis, the Republican Party is now fascist, autocratic and white nationalist. I’m not thrilled at the idea that the United States would ever have to go through the tragedy of civil war again, but if my only other option is to live in an autocracy like Orban’s Hungary, what the fuck else are we going to do?

And, yet, no fate but what we make. There’s still a chance that we’re going to drift towards some sort of situation where we have an autocracy — a Democrat can only become POTUS if Democrats control Congress — but the fascist Republicans will be so busy making abortion illegal and giving plutocrats yet another tax cut that they whole pushy-pushy out of windows thing will remain just a running gag for me.

I hope.

Unfrozen Caveman Autocrat: DeSantis Is Going To De Win In De 2024 Unless Trump Freaks De Fuck Out


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Way too many people have pinned their hopes on somehow everything magically going back to normal if we can just destroy Trump politically. In a sense, Trump has done all the damage he needs to do. Because he’s such a fucking idiot, he was a transitional figure.

Now that your typical ambitious Republican pol knows the conditions of the New Normal after studying Trump, we have about a dozen would-be autocrats who are chomping at the bit to finally put our undead liberal democracy out of its misery.

The current front runner for America’s Putin is Ron DeSantis. He is EXTREMELY POPULAR with my conservative relatives. Liberals hate DeSantis, so the “own the libs” box is checked. And, I’ve gotten to the point where I struggle to understand why Twitter liberals try to ascribe any logic to MAGA New Right cocksuckers at this point.

White Nationalism has gone mainstream within the Republican Party, as has autocracy and fascism. So…lulz? The historical momentum is now such that there is an open path for DeSantis to be Trump’s successor, become an autocrat through a MAGA Koch Brothers Constitutional Convention and that’s it — he’ll be POTUS for 40 odd years.

Ron DeSantis

As I keep saying, I keep vacillating wildly thinking we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy and thinking we’re going to have a civil war. If DeSantis is the GOP’s 2024 nominee then we’re definitely going to slip peacefully into autocracy. From what I can tell, he’s proven himself an adept governor — other than killing his electorate by seeing the COVID health crisis exclusively through the lens of partisan politics — and, as such, he could easily shepherd us into autocracy.

There are a few known unknowns, however, most of them deal with a 300 lb sack of shit known as Donald Trump. It would be pretty historically ironic if Trump shived DeSantis politically and so disrupted our now near-inevitable transition into a Russian-style managed democracy that we had a civil war instead.

The thing about DeSantis is if you combine how popular he is with the MAGA New Right base with his likely ability to hoodwink liberal soccer moms in the suburbs — he’s got a winning combination. To the point that he might even be able to win the 2024 election outright, no nullification on the part of a MAGA Congress needed.

It’s easy to imagine DeSantis wins fair-and-square and soon enough enough banks hard right into autocrat land and there will be absolutely nothing we can do about it. That will be it. He’ll start ranting about how we need a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and when it is called up somehow, mysteriously “religious liberty” will be codified in the Constitution and presidents will be elected for seven years, not four.

At the moment, that seems to be our fate. People like me will be murdered in cold political blood by ICE — one way or another — and that will just be America until we get so hot that we all have to move to Canada.

Good luck.

The Twitter ‘Resistance’ Is A Sham: Civil War, Autocracy & The Zeroth Law

Zeroth Law
A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.
— Isaac Asimov


By Ender

The most powerful nation in the world is careening towards an existential choice: autocracy or civil war. I hate violence. I hate guns. Hell, I hate conflict. But we’ve approached a historical moment when the average self-aware American needs to do a gut check: what are you willing to do to maintain and, if necessary renew, the American Covenant?

As such, I feel forced by the human, American equivalent of Asimov’s “Zeroth Law” to say that given that I would rather die on my feet a free man than live on my knees a slave to MAGA that maybe we should begin to prepare for civil war. This is an extremely risky option.

There are no assurances that we, “the Good Guys” would win. A simple glance at the first Civil War is a huge warning not to think about it — from 1861 to 1863 the CSA had a very, very good chance of winning. That’s one of the many things about war that sucks so bad: you just never know. You could end up killing a lot of people and still not achieve your war aims. Just ask the multitude of Iraqis and Iranians that died in the early 1980s.

But at the same time, the MAGA New Right is telegraphing their objectives. They want the United States to be an autocracy, a managed democracy. They are doing this in broad daylight. If you look at the Twitter feed of people like Jesse Kelly, it’s pretty much full of the exact same things I rant about, only from the exact opposite end of the political spectrum.

What I fear, he wants, and vis versa.

I’m not proposing you buy a gun or anything — please, for fuck’s sake don’t — but I am saying you have at best about four years (January 2025) to get your affairs in order before we either slip peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy or we have a civil war of some sort.

If you have the means, buy a passport and get out while you still can. If you’re like me and don’t think you’re going to have the means to leave, you need to start to game out what you’re going to do. In some respects, a lot of this is macro and out of the hands of any one person. The choice of civil war or autocracy isn’t really in my — or anyone else’s hands.

But if we do have a civil war — which I pray we won’t — freedom loving people have to get over themselves and start thinking on an existential level how they can help the war effort. I know myself well enough to know that I’m probably going to throw myself into the revolution should it happen. I’m a good writer, speaker and organizer.

Should history decide to give me the opportunity to help save the United States, I’m going to answer the call.

Or, put another way, don’t let yourself be cowed by the civil war talk of the New Right. Rather, call their bluff and start to game out what you might do on an individual basis to combat those fucktards when the moment comes. The Blue States have a huge advantage when it comes to their economies, political unity and concentration of population.

The issue is, just like with the early days of the first civil war, if the Blue States will have the wherewithal to fight fire with fire. It could be that the Red States will sucker punch Blue States and while they’re recovering simply strangle what’s left of American democracy while Blue States recover from the inital blow.

But the Zeroth Law tells me, on a personal, abstract basis what to do.

I suggest you do the same.

Trump’s Failed ‘Autogolpe’ Proves He’s Not A ‘Great Man’ — But He Could Still Cause A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The evidence continues to build that Trump was his own worst enemy when it came to the events of January 6th. If he wasn’t such a fucking IDIOT, his attempt at a self-coup or “autogolpe,” would have been successful. The crux of the issue is — the whole plot was done in a frenzied panic.

Me, if Trump is successful next time.

It gives one pause for thought to think that it isn’t that Trump isn’t an autocrat — he is — it’s just he’s so fucking lazy and stupid that he couldn’t pull it off even though he could have.

Or, put another way, the Hand of Fate pointed at Trump and gave him the opportunity and motive to stage a successful autogolpe in the United States. What he didn’t have was the means — he’s a barely cognizant man child who was simply playing himself.

This brings me to something I’ve found myself thinking a lot about of late: Trump is not a “great man.” He’s just an avatar. Right time, right place kind of guy. Hitler, or Stalin or whomever weren’t just playing themselves, they had agency — they warped history through sheer ego.

That avatar, not great man, element was in full display with Trump’s attempted autogolpe. Someone like Hitler wouldn’t have let the process get as far along as Trump did. And if Hitler was in such a situation, he would have used whatever means necessary to make sure he never had to leave office.

But Trump, oh boy. What a fucking moron.

We love you, Chauncy. You would never try to end our democracy.

Having said all that, there is the issue of Trump single-handedly, through sheer incompetence, forcing us into a civil war. It would happen either because Cyber Ninjas “proved” he “won” Arizona or he becomes Speaker when Republicans take the House in 2022 or he runs again in 2024 and there’s a nullification crisis when a MAGA Congress refuses to certify a Biden win.

Again, any of those scenarios would involve Trump being nothing more than a historical empty vessel. Any other autocrat would deftly transition the United States from liberal democracy into autocracy given any of those opportunities. But Trump is a fucking idiot so he could just crash into history and cause Blue States to bounce or Red States to bounce and cause the whole country to come crashing down unless the military decides to step in with some sort of temporary junta.

What I’m saying is — while we’re all going to be forced to take Trump both seriously and literally when the history of the United States is written, in a sense we dodged a huge fucking bullet (at least for the moment.) Almost any other person in the same political spectrum as Trump would have successfully destroyed American democracy.

As it is, Trump is just a lazy moron.

When To Panic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When should you panic when it comes to my dystopian predictions about the “Fourth Turning” being the existential choice of civil war or autocracy?

Second American Civil War
In some ways, this one is pretty obvious — there would be a catalyst that started the process of a states doing something akin to secession that would spark an event that we would refer to as “the Second American Civil War.” So, in a sense, you would know something was happening.

But at the same time, here are some metrics that would re-enforce the idea that the “Fourth Turning” of a civil war is about to happen. One is, Red people in Blue States and Blue people in Red states would begin to flee to states with politics that fit their personal views. This would be extremely dramatic. There are about 335 million Americans and if there was panic domestic political refugee movements it would be astonishing in scope.

Just as this happened, it’s likely New York City would be a massive flash point because a lot of conservative media is physically located there. So, if the United States really was about to buckle into some sort of Trumplandia and rump USA shooting war, it’s very possible that the offices of Fox News and the WSJ would be physically attacked by an angry mob of New Yorkers. Trump Tower, too, could be stormed and gutted.

If you start seeing shit like that — we’re going to have a civil war.

Also, if you start to see radicalization on the part of, say, the talking heads of Today or Good Morning America or NPR — we’re really fucked. Those guys are the last bastions of “everyone stay calm.” If they freak out, then buckle up, we’re fucked.

Another thing that would happen about this time is severe violence on a state government level. There would be coups and counter-coups in states like Oregon, Virginia and Michigan.

One other thing — the draft would come back in a rather abrupt fashion.

Autocracy
The time to panic with autocracy in the United States is when the media is purged. This will happen in a way that the crumbling Establishment goes out of its way to minimize and rationalize.

Then, gradually, in fits and starts any form of protesting will be crushed and, yes, people will begin to mysteriously get pushed out of widows.

Form follows function.

“Welcome To The New Right!’ — The Rise Of Republican White Nationalist Fascism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ are we fucked. It’s growing tiresome to point out how dire things are at the moment. All the conditions are there for the United States to drift peacefully into something akin to “lite touch” fascism. The only reason why it would be a bit mellow — at first — is the absence of a large-scale SA / SS paramilitary group.

We have them, but there are too many of them who are fractious and not really the jackbooted thugs that a fascism government would need. Add to that the so-called Deep State of people who simply want to keep our failing liberal democratic traditions alive in some form and at first there will be only one change: the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if Democrats control Congress, too.

Otherwise, things will — initially, at least — be the same as they always have.

The problem is, form follows function. Once white nationalist fascists realize they can do whatever the fuck they want and there will be absolutely no consequences for them, they’re going to grow more aggressive. Before you know it, my running gag about me being pushed out a window by ICE won’t be so funny anymore. (Gulp)

Soon enough, living in the United States and Russia will be like the end of Animal Farm — we’ll look back and forth between the two and they’ll look identical. Only when it becomes personal will the average white Christian MAGA person care about the abuses of our new white nationalist fascist overlords

As of right now, that seems to be our fate. We’re just going to peacefully transition into a white nationalist fascist autocracy without a peep of objection. We’re going to both-sides ourselves into autocracy. There will be a MAGA-originated Constitutional Convention and whichever one of the would-be autocrats who are chomping at the bit to succeed Trump wins will become an American Putin.

Generations of Americans will only know President Hawley, or President Pompeo or President Noam or President Cotton….the list goes on. There will be occasional big protests and occasional random acts of savage political violence on the part of the white national fascists. But, overall, America will be a national of “blood and soil” and indistinguishable from Russia or Hungry or Turkey.

There are a few known unknowns that could scramble what seems inevitable now. Trump is a fucking idiot who could push himself into macro historical trends AGAIN and force an avoidable civil war on us out of sheer incompetence. Or our transition into a white Christian nationalist fascist state might hit Blue States in just the wrong way and they bounce, causing a civil war.

But, in general, the Establishment simply isn’t taking the fucking New Right seriously enough. So, we’re fucked.

Three Impending Potential Crisis Events That Could Be The Catalyst For A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are three moments to think about in the future when it comes to the existential choice of autocracy or civil war that faces us.

Near term: The Cyber Ninjas Arizona Recount
The Cyber Ninjas clusterfuck sham “audit” is one of those things I just can’t game out. I have no idea what the outcome of them “proving” that Trump “won” the state after all will be. Everything from civil war to it just being something Russian trolls piviot to on Twitter is a potential outcome. Trump already makes it clear he thinks he should be re-instated as POTUS as soon as possible.

I guess what I’m afraid of is a dynamic similar to what happened on January 6th, only on a national scale. The moment the Cyber Ninjas preliminary report is filed that tells Trump won, he’s going to freak the fuck out. Trump has a $100 million war chest to fuck things up, so maybe he would stop grifting long enough to use that money to put pressure on MAGA legislatures to have “Decertification Conventions?”

Or something like that.

And, yet, Trump pretty much has been saying this exact same thing — that if you’re MAGA and have the power to decertify Biden’s win in your state, get to it — and nothing has happened. It’s just kind of rolling around the far Right echo chamber with Mike Flynn. Something would have to change. People with something to lose would have to feel the base of the Republican Party was so juiced up with Big Lie rhetoric that they actually expected them to do something about it now that there was “proof” that Trump “won” Arizona.

Again, the Cyber Ninjas thing is something that is easy to imagine on paper, but in the real world…it could very well just become another MAGA New Right talking point for Jesse Kelly after he says, “Welcome To The New Right!” when he does something embarrassing he can’t properly defend.

I guess the point is — Cyber Ninjas in itself could be enough to push us into a some sort of secession crisis. And, yet, lulz. Who knows.

Middle Term: The 2022 mid-terms
It could be that what gets us is not Cyber Ninjas or the 2024 Congressional Nullification Crisis, but the 2022 mid-terms. It could be that we’re so fragile on a political level that just the added pressure of the mid-terms will be enough to cause us to collapse.

The way I imagine it happening wouldn’t be the mid-terms themselves, but what they would bring –a Republican controlled Congress. In this case, the civil war would happen not with Red States leaving the Union to form Trumplandia, but with Blue States leaving the Union when Speaker Trump impeaches both Biden and Harris and then incites a civil war when Senate Democrats won’t convict.

This option is a bit nebulous, but it is possible. It’s also possible that the mid-terms could turn tragic if it becomes really obvious that the Republican Party officially won’t brook the Democratic Party winning — ever. That might be enough to cause Blue States to bounce. Or not. Who knows.

Longer Term: The 2024 President Election
It seems to me that this is going to be it — if we make it through Cyber Ninjas and the 2022 midterms, it will be January 2025 that forces us to make the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Everything will come to a head in late 2024 to early 2025. Long term metrics of politics and demographics will come to a sharp point. There will, at last, be no middle ground for anyone — autocracy or civil war.

Either we allow Republicans to nullify the result of a Biden win, there’s another (successful) insurrection to do just that or we have a fucking civil war. Everyone will have to take a side. No exceptions.

January 2025 is going to be a momentous year in our nation’s history — if we make it to that point. But we could doge the situation if a major regional war popped up or, I dunno, some sort of COVID19 variant popped out that killed millions.

Otherwise, we’re fucked on a political history basis.

America is Careening Towards The Existential Choice of Autocracy Or Civil War In January 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is either just a few years away from descending into full MAGA New Right autocracy or this is a modern antebellum period. Take your pick. You only have those two choices.

Let me state at the beginning that I got a lot — a whole lot — wrong about the Trump Era.

But looking back, most of my errors were miscalculations about what Trump was actually capable of doing. He talked like an autocrat, but he didn’t walk like one. So, I spent all this time thinking up pretty basic autocratic things he could do…and he was just too lazy and stupid to do them. As such, you have a situation where it seemed very easy to me during the 2020 presidential cycle that Trump would steal the election and become an autocrat via a Koch Brothers-inspired Constitutional Convention.

It was a gimme for Trump. All the conditions were there. All the metrics. Everything. All Trump had to do was fire enough people to get someone to indict Joe Biden and have images of him being frog walked at some point leading up to November 2020 and that would be it. What’s more, as late as a few days after the 2020 election, Trump STILL could have stolen the election and he just didn’t have the wherewithal.

So what happened was he panicked. He made a last ditch effort to steal the election by having his angry mob want to “Hang Mike Pence.” But it was always a dumb plan and all it did was give Republicans, on an systemic basis, a heads up as to how to steal future elections.

But back to 2024.

It’s seems a forgone conclusion that in January 2025, either we slip peacefully into some sort of MAGA New Right autocracy because it officially becomes conventional wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become president is if their party controls Congress at the same time or we have a civil war. And my bet is if it happens in 2025, it’s going to be Blue States, not Red States that bounce.

The dead hand of history is on Red States’ side — they have the macro trend momentum — and so when the moment comes and it’s clear we’re going to be an autocracy, there’s a chance that Blue States simply won’t put up with it and we have a civil war.

Of course, there’s one issue I can’t game out: the U.S. Military.

It’s possible that in the end, the military gets over itself and steps in. They depose the MAGA New Right autocrat, form a junta with Jim Mattis at its head and call a Constitutional Convention to fix the problems facing the country. Hopefully, of course, they’ll ensure that it’s not a MAGA dominated convention, but who knows.

All I know is, something’s gotta give. The positions of the two sides are hardening to the point that something’s going to change very soon, within a few years. Things are going to change in a big, historic fashion that a lot of people are simply not prepared to experience.

I can’t predict the future. So I could be wrong — again. But barring something big happening that throws everything out of whack (the LHC is going back online in 2022, so lulz) I just don’t see how we don’t have a pretty massive turning point in American history around January 2025.

AOC & The End Of The Meh Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If the book The Fourth Turning is to be believed, we’re currently in a holding pattern until Something Big happens around 2025. I don’t believe in reveled truth, but that jibes with my personal belief that January 2025 is going to be huge because we’re either going to peacefully drift into an autocracy or, gulp, we’re going to have a civil war.

We’re kind of in a historical holding pattern at the moment. We live in an Era of Meh. But whenever that changes, everything is going to be thrown up in the air. People who currently are just kind of drifting through history may be forced to rise to the occasion.

One person this is very true about is AOC. She’s young, smart and articulate. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where when the crisis of January 2025 happens she is forced into the spotlight in a big way. She might find herself in a Giuliani on 9/11 type situation.

Or, put another way, a side effect of the impending chaos we’re careening towards would be someone like AOC. She’s ripe to be pushed into the next level of our political life for no other reason than she may feel compelled to take a stand that puts her in serious risk.

I have no idea what any of this would entail, but if the country is falling apart because a MAGA controlled Congress refuses to certify a Biden win in January 2025, AOC seems like the type of person who might lead the effort to stop such a tyrannical move.

Anyway. What do I know. Lulz.

The Rise of Trumplandia — The MAGA New Right & Popular American Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just like how Putin’s initial transition of Russia into an autocracy was popular among a large swath of the Russian electorate because it promised to bring “stability,” so, too is the prospect of American autocracy very popular within the MAGA New Right.

Once you establish this, everything begins to make a lot more sense.

It’s difficult to talk to someone about politics in a liberal democracy when their personal political views are based on the goal of…destroying the liberal democracy you both currently live in. That’s why Trump remains so popular long after any other politician in a similar position would have been destroyed. He’s so out there that we lose sight that the “idea” of Trump is so popular because the “idea” the he represents is autocracy.

Or, put another way, people wanted an old fashion autocrat when they elected him in 2016 (with the help of the Russians) and, in a sense, we kind of dodged a bullet when he turned out just to be a malicious idiot. So, Trump could very well be seen as more a transitional character that the guy who gets the job done. But the thing about Trump is for all his autocratic, disruptive leanings he’s all talk — or just really lazy.

That’s why you have the situation where he telegraphed in exact detail his intentions of being an American Hitler…only not to be able to produce the goods. So center-Left people like me who screamed that Trump was an autocrat who was going to destroy America…were right. We were right given the metrics we had at the time.

What we got wrong was Trump’s actual ability to do all the things he said he wanted to do. I mean, if he was anywhere near as effective as he would have us believe he would have EASILY stolen the 2020 election, pulled out of NATO the moment he was re-elected and began to rant about how we needed a Constitutional Convention. And this would have been popular enough that absolutely nothing was done to prevent it.

Donald Trump

But, surprise, Trump is all hot air. He’s a lazy racist piece of shit who talks a good game but can’t in any way do any of the autocratic things he so desperately wants to do. This, even though he had the entire power of the Federal government at his disposal and a entire political party at his beck and call.

It takes a lot of talent to screw up your autocratic dreams with all that going for you.

And, yet, Trump managed to do just that.

The point of all of this is two fold. One, don’t get your hopes up if we figure out the direct link between Trump, “R. Congressmen” and the January 6th Insurrection. We could know for an absolute fact that Trump personally was involved in the direction of that violent event and STILL nothing would happen to him. There are just too many people who not-so-tacitly support his dream of an autocratic America — too many people inside the Republican Party wanted the goal of that particular conspiracy to be successful.

The issue is Trump is such a ding-bat that if history AGAIN gives him the power to finally transition us into an autocracy, there’s a good chance we’re going to have a civil war. He’s just too big a doofus to be able to pull it off without the Blue States, in some manner, fighting back on the field of battle.

So, Trump’s personal laziness and incompetency would be the specific reason why the civil war that so many MAGA New Right fucktards want so bad finally happens. It would probably happen at some point around the certification of Trump’s “winning” the 2024 election because a MAGA Congress nullifies Biden’s win. Good times!

Lastly, there is one huge piece of the puzzle that way, way, way too many are oblivious to — they’re so busy hating on Trump that they forget all of this bullshit is a systemic problem. Trump is just an avatar. There are probably a dozen talented Republican elected officials who are positioning themselves to be America’s Putin.

They will get into office and never leave. An entire generation — or two! of Americans will grow up with President Pompeo, or Hawley, or Cotton or Noam or DeSantis…or you name it. And, as much as it pains me to say this, the only way this will NOT happen is if the transition to autocracy is somehow bungled and we have a very tragic civil war that will pretty much cause WW3 and the potential death of billions around the globe.

So, take your pick, folks.

Autocracy or civil war. Autocracy or civil fucking war.