I really don’t know what to make of Marjorie Taylor Greene. If there was ever a ping from an extremely dark future, it is the rise of MTG on the political scene. Apparently, MTG has Speaker McCarthy by the short ones and he is something of her plaything.
The thing about MTG is she seems just a tick or two away from being just as bonkers as Trump. And, yet, she also far more focused and power hungry in an actionable way than Trump. While Trump pretty much just flails around, not really doing anything, it seem as though given actual power that MTG might be actually be the autocrat that Trump wants to be.
As I have often said, the issue of the moment is not so much Trump as who he will pick to be his veep in 2024. Trump is so old and fat that if he manages to become POTUS again without causing a fucking civil war, then whomever is his veep could very well be on the fast track to becoming POTUS.
As such, I’m growing more and more alarmed with MTG. It could be her, not Trump or DeSantis who will be our first autocrat. But she would have to win the veepstakes first. There are any number of fucking would-be autocrats who Trump could pick. Everyone from Pompeo to Hawley are chomping at the bit to be Trump’s veep and, as such, our first autocrat.
I don’t think people really appricate who primed and ready the United States is for the type of legalistic autocracy that Russia has. In my mind, by definition, our next Republican president will be our first autocrat. A sizeable chunk of the American population — mostly white Christian men, natch — are all-in on the idea of autocratic MAGA fascism. They may not really articulate it that way, but from my conversations with my Traditionalist relatives — they want autocratic MAGA fascism.
What’s so comical about all of this is, of course, that when you press them on the consequences of what they want — that I would inevitably run afoul of the autocrat they want so much — they get really upset. They don’t seem able to connect the fact that while they would be Good Germans under the Fourth Reich, I, alas, am such a drunk loudmouth crank that it is inevitable that I would endup with an ICE bullet in the back of my head.
Sometimes, even I wonder why I even bother. For some reason, I have the trans movement on the brain and, as such, I did a Tik-Tok trying to give an equatable, nuanced explanation of my struggle to figure out how to deal with the whole thing.
I knew going into it that it would be controversial and, soon enough, a trans person flipped out on me in their own video. I watched the whole video and was impressed with how passionate and cogent the argument was.
And, yet, the freak out kind of proved my point — I fucking hate orthodoxy of any sort and if you stake out an extreme political orthodox you’re only setting yourself up for an eventual downfall. It all goes back to John Lennon saying in Revolution, “if you talk about distruction, you can count me out (in.)
Or, to put it another way, I have a vested interest in hating orthodoxy because if you have one, I’m probably going to violate it eventually, whatever it is. That’s just my nature.
Anyway, the only reason why I even continue to talk about something as controversial as the trans movement is if the trans orthodoxy becomes so taboo to even address then, well, we are lurching ever closer to a fascist state. If we had a functioning democracy, there would be some give-and-take and, ultimately, the exact place of trans people in society would be sorted out and we could move on to cursing the meat.
But because we DON’T have a functioning democracy, we find ourselves with a Gay Scare and the whole issue of trans people even existing at all becoming a hot political potato that is used by both sides (I hate that term) to juice the base whenever an election is coming up.
I just don’t think the recent revelations regarding Trump and secret documents at Mar-a-Lago will break the MAGA fever dream. Two things are at work. One is, MAGA is a fascist movement that is the result of a number of deep seated, structural problem with the United States. There’s just no way to abate the rise of white Christian rage. That’s why we face — most likely in 2024 – 2025 — the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
We may all be antifa soon enough.
Meanwhile, there is the issue of Trump himself. We’ve reached the point where virtually everyone in American politics is doing some wish-casting in regards to Trump potentially not running for office in 2024. Everyone from Ron DeSantis, who is salivating over the prospect of being America’s first autocrat to your rabid Leftist simply would prefer Trump to retire and stop being the political monster that he is.
But he’s just not going anywhere. If he’s indicted, then he announces his 2024 run earlier than he might otherwise. And if he’s not indicted, then he runs because he is above the law and he has a very radical National Socialist-like agenda to enact in his second term.
And one thing I would like to point out — we can’t mistake the Federal government finally getting fed up and raiding Mar-a-Lago for any indication that their going to do anything else. It could be that given the political implications of indicting someone like Trump they will choke and simply hope for the best.
I say this because there a very real chance that Trump could go transitional if he is indicted. Even though Trump is a lazy idiot and I wonder if he has enough abstract thought abilities to handle destroying the United States, maybe being indicted will focus his mind. My fear is that Trump will begin to rant that Red states need to leave the Union so he can live his life in peace. States like Texas would definitely take him up on such a suggestion because it’s a state with a very autocratic government.
The Federal government knows all of this and so I think in the end that Trump is going to escape — again. This is going to be just thing about Trump baked into the cake and that’s it. This will set up the 2024 battle royale between MAGA fascism and a bunch of still-clueless liberals. Which way things go — autocracy or civil war — I still can’t game out.
I do know, however, that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee we are in deep, deep trouble. The prospect of civil war, with Blues leaving the Union increases significantly. DeSantis is enough of a “normal” politician that he could hoodwink the people necessary to become POTUS and gradually strangle democracy.
We live in very dumb times. When the word “liberal” is now so toxic that you can’t even use the very true phrase “liberal world order” without crazy, frothy nutjobs on the Far Right growing very upset and paranoid, you live in very dumb times.
But the point is — since 1945, humanity has lived with unpreceded peace and prosperity because of, well, the “liberal world order” associated with Pax Americana. And since the fall of Communism, things have only gotten better for everyone involved.
And then MAGA slithered out of its black lagoon.
The thing about the decline of the American Empire is it’s happening in real time before our very eyes and, yet, we can’t process it. The average person is too busy raising their kids and paying their taxes to give the very abstract concepts that are happening all around us much thought.
But there is a very real chance that no matter which direction the United States goes — autocracy or civil war — we will see the end of Pax America and, as such, WW3 will happen. Remember, all that has to happen for WW3 to be declared is more than one major regional war break out at the same time. So, as such, even if what happens is dingus Trump in his second term pulls out of NATO and pulls troops out of ROK, then, there you go, WW3 on a plate. Because what would happen is the US leaving NATO would be a crushing blow to the post-WW2 liberal order.
As Trump “brought the troops home,” China would fill the massive geopolitical vacuum and invade Taiwan just because of, well, YOLO. At the same time, the DPRK would attack the newly undefended ROK. Then maybe Iran attacks Israel. Then maybe India and Pakistan have at it –with nukes!
The point is — we’re past the Event Horizon now. We’re in the danger zone. Something big, really big is probably going to either happen at any moment or no later than January 2025 around certification day. The bolts are popping off the United States at an alarming rate and there’s a good chance that if we don’t become an autocracy, we have a very nasty civil war with WMD used by both sides.
Regardless, not matter if we become an autocracy or have a civil war, there is going to be a Great Reset or Fourth Turning (or whatever the fuck you want to call it) and many, many people are going to die for a very dumb reason. This is it, we’re at the end of the beginning of Pax America.
I fear I, personally, will have to flee my home for political reasons when everything begins to collapse. My politics don’t fit my location. At least I havea passport.
I’ve always thought Joe Rogan was something of a grifter when it came to giving otherwise alienated men something to latch onto. Just because you’re earnest in your masculinity, doesn’t excuse you if you show signs of misogyny, racism or fascism.
But here we are, Rogan is hugely popular in large because a lot of men are struggling to adapt to this strange new world we live in where many “woke” people think that, by definition, being male is bad. Slay the patriarchy and all that.
Then there is Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine. He gives me hope as a man because he doesn’t have any gimmick like Joe Rogan. He’s just a dude doing traditional dude stuff in a traditional dude manner. So, it makes me wonder what would happen if Rogan in all of his earnest masculinity were to interview Zelenskyy.
I think in the end, Rogan would be a puppy dog to Zelenskyy. I say this because Rogan doesn’t have the weight that Zelenskyy has and he’s always angling in to come across as reasonable, even he’s interviewing a fucking bonkers fascist. As such, Rogan frames his conversations in a way that grades people who are demonstrably bad so they they seem just misunderstood.
There is a reason why Rogan is a alt-right, New Right, MAGA gateway drug. He has a tendency to want it both ways — he wants to have power and yet when it gets called on some dumb thing he says, he does a Jon Stewart and says, ‘Why are you listening to me in the first place?”
Anyway, it would definitely be illuminative for Rogan to interview Zelenskyy. Hopefully the war will be over soon so that can happen.
So, my Traditionalist relatives have, on occasion, asked me if I forswear political violence. Which is both dumb and insulting. Of course I’m against political violence! Jesus Christ!
The fact that the MAGA New Right is chomping at the bit to start a civil war makes this question even more idiotic. Even a Traditionalist who has “tuned out” from politics should know by now that there are a number of conservative thought leaders who really, really, want an excuse to murder people like me in cold political blood.
So, instead of worrying about ME wanting political violence, I think my Traditionalist relatives need to get their own home in order. Or is that just “bogus?” For those of you who aren’t into debate nullification when you’re losing, just look at what’s going on with Canada’s trucker crisis.
That crisis is going to come to the US soon enough. And, as I understand it, March 3rd — for some reason — could be some sort of successor to January 6th. I don’t know the details, but that’s what I’m seeing on Twitter. This is a developing and potentially very unstable situation. It could be like January 6th, only much, much worse.
Anyway. We need to be aware that the MAGA New Right may very well force the issue. The question then will be is how receptive people are to fucking shit up when the MAGA New Right decides to see if they can bring down the government through a General Strike or some such. (Especially in the context of this potentially happening — and working — in Canada.)
And the craziest part of all of this is if they would just be peaceful and patient, they could get everything — and I mean everything — they wanted through peaceful political means. Everything is there. All they have to do is just not blow it all by starting a civil war.
And, yet, here we are.
I’m going back to the five novels I’m working on that no one in my family cares about — they won’t even read anything I write even when I ask them to!
The chief reason why I feel we’re Weimar America is the people who should know better — political Traditionalists — will never make common cause against MAGA. So, in a sense, the die is cast. We’re fucked. There’s no turning back.
It was when political Traditionalists finally turned on Nixon that he lost the presidency. And, to date, there is absolutely no sign that Traditionalists will ever, finally turn their back on Trump and MAGA. If anything, even if they are inclined to stop supporting Trump for whatever reason, they are now even more attached the MAGA — despite growing signs that MAGA is real, honest-to-God fascism.
So, when the time comes in 2024 – 2025, Traditionalists will throw their lot with MAGA and it will really be nothing more than luck if we somehow manage to escape either a civil war or autocracy. I continue to struggle to figure out what could possibly prevent us from going one of those two routes.
From my Webstats I definitely get the sense that there is a core group of people — especially from the South — who seem to think a Second American Civil War would be SOOOO COOOL. If you think that, you’re a fucking fool. It would be horrific. Especially if you factor in how awash America is with WMD on military bases. Add to this how Red States would be likely to use WMD more than Blue States and things are likely to escalate quite quickly.
Throw in a race war and, lulz, that would be cool?
It’s tragic how poorly though any support for a Second American Civil War is. It’s little more than a political grunt. Anyway, the other option is autocracy, which I think is what is going to happen.
Traditionalists will be there, however, waiting with baited breath to follow MAGA down either path.
The Republicans Party is now fascist. By definition, the moment they gain power again, they’re never letting it go. Add to this cold hard fact the additional fact that Trump is turning the Republican Party into his own personal dream board and, well, lulz.
We’re fucked — democracy doesn’t die in the darkness in America, it dies in broad daylight because no one is willing to confront Republicans for the fascists they are.
Or, even more dark, there really isn’t anything we can do to fix this problem short of a civil war. MAGA New Right Republican voters want an autocracy so badly that every election is nothing more than yet another opportunity to lurch us closer and closer to autocracy.
I do not want a civil war — I really don’t! — but a civil war would be a high risk, high reward option to potentially re-found the USA. We could transition from Lincoln’s Second Republic, to a new American Covenant, based on, I dunno, California?
But I just don’t see that happening, at least at the moment.
What’s more likely to happen is around 2024 – 2025, there will be one last death spasm for democracy, and then that will be it. Wealthy center-Left people will leave the United States en masse until the autocratic (whoever that may be) makes that nearly impossible. America will be a shit hole country that continues to grow more inward looking, poorer, less creative and politically dark.
But.
While I don’t think there is going to be a civil war — the center-Left simply has no leadership at the moment — there is a small chance that Trump and the MAGA New Right might bungle the transition to autocracy (willfully?) for no other reason than they want the opportunity to murder people like me for political reasons. They might grow so blinded by their bloodlust that they fail to see that if they just cooled it and were patient, that they would get everything they wanted via political means.
So, I guess what I’m saying is I go in circles in my mind whenever I think about our 2024 – 2025 fate. Just about when I think there is no way we will have a civil war, I say to myself, “but……”
It could really go either way. It really could.
And, honestly, if history is any guide, usually the difference between civil war and autocracy is probably going to be a multitude of tactical decisions — and dumb mistakes one way or another — committed between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.
Also, as I keep saying — Trump is so stupid and lazy that by definition him running again increases the chances of civil war dramatically. If it’s DeSantis (or anyone else) who is the Republican nominee in 2024, then I can just shrug and start to figure out if I can get out of the country before ICE rounds me up and shoots me in the back of the head.
Man, oh, man, am I nobody. I got a bum ankle, warm laptop and Internet access. That’s all I got at the moment. But I do have something else — I’m good at scenarios. So, I’m rather alarmed with the recent shenanigans of the fucking paramilitary group The Patriot Front and want to game out what their long term goals may be.
The Patriot Party Flag
I’m not an expert, but I do know enough from what I can see with my own two eyes to figure out some sense of what their danger is. Here’s what we know about them. They are well organized. They work in the shadows and with stealth. They have an infrastructure built out enough to swoop into a hostile Blue city like DC or Philadelphia and get out safely before they get their asses beat.
So, where does that leave us?
It seems as though they are plotting the ability to do some sort of attack in a major city in the Eastern Corridor at the time and place of their choosing. What might trigger such an attack is anyone’s guess. But probably it would be done in the context of the country descending into mass chaos. Although, you make the case that The Patriot Front is auditioning for something akin to the SS, should we become a true autocracy which would find a modern SS quite handy.
Anyway, I’m probably going to write a lot more about this in the future. Stay tuned.
Occasionally, the hot takes within my center-Left, anti-MAGA New Right echo chamber are so bad, so ill conceived that I get really angry. A prime example of this recently is all the laugher about Trump telling the MAGA New Right faithful “not to vote” if the Republican Establishment doesn’t “address” his Big Lie about the 2020 election.
Two reasons exist for this being very, very dangerous.
The first reason is, well, Trump is giving the Republican Establishment its marching orders for 2022 and 2024. If they don’t toe the line, he’s threatening them with destruction. Hence, how quiet they are about his threats on the matter. And, really, the case could be made that this is part of Steve Bannon’s broader efforts at an administrative coup going forward.
Steve K. Bannon
Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:
It’s not in our nature to have a civil war. For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system. It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024 Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed. Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.
But the second, darker reason is Trump is dangling the prospect of the MAGA New Right no longer participating in the democratic process en mass. If they don’t feel as though they have a vested interest in democracy — if they just stop voting — then all the glad handing and backslapping that people like Rachel Maddow will do when Democrats start to win will be interrupted rather dramatically.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
You think we have it bad now, just wait until a huge swath of deranged MAGA New Right cocksuckers grow radicalized and see violence as their only option to get what they want in the country. That would not be cool.
I just don’t think a lot of liberal “thinkers” are taking the very dangerous future we face seriously enough. Something’s gotta give. We either turn into an autocracy, have a civil war or the military steps in and we have some sort of military junta.
But the current situation is just not stable. It can only last so long. The United States is running on fumes.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
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