Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

De Agony And De Ecstasy Of Ron DeSantis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If this was the pre-Trump Era, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be well on his way to being a run-of-the-mill Republican president. He might even be a tick or two better than idiot George W. Bush.

But this is the POST Trump presidency era, and, as such, things are fucking bonkers. Instead of just a run of the mill Republican president, DeSantis, if elected would be more like an American Augustus — the first autocrat of our new post-democracy America.

Ron DeSantis

All the hysterical, dystopian things I’ve been ranting about would happen during his presidency instead of ding-dong Trump’s. DeSantis is young, competent and not only knows how to weld the levers of power, but also how to be Trump without Trump. And, as such, he’s extremely dangerous.

DeSantis could turn into an American Putin and simply never leave office. There is already a well-organized move afoot to get a Constitutional Convention called and given how its members would be selected — via state legislatures — it’s a gimmie that it would codify MAGA “blood and soil” concepts into the Constitution.

And that would be it.

What’s worse, DeSantis is actively killing his own electorate at the moment by denying science when it comes to COVID19 in an effort to curry favor with those sweet, sweet MAGA base votes. We’ve reached the point where MAGA New Right voters are so absolute in their need to “own the libs” because of their abstract fears over Cancel Culture and Critical Race Theory that they would LITERALLY RATHER DIE than see COVID19 for what it is — a lingering national health crisis.

There is one other potential obstacle to DeSantis getting his opportunity to be the founding autocrat of Trumplandia — a 300 lb tub of lard who thinks HE should be the founding autocrat of Trumplandia. Trump is so fucking deranged and unwilling to let go of either power or the spotlight that it’s very easy to imagine him politically shiving DeSantis so he can run again in 2024.

Now, logically, Trump would pick DeSantis as his new veep, paving the way for Trump to put DeSantis in the position of being his autocratic successor. But Trump is a craven idiot who thinks in such a short-term, so it could be we end up with Vice President Michael Flynn instead of Vice President Ron DeSantis.

Anyway, the point is — Trump is such a political history disrupter that he could bend the nature progression of our history simply because he’s self-serving dick head. Or not. Who knows what that guy.

I will note, however, that DeSantis is extremely fucking popular with conservatives in general. But even if everything breaks his way, there are going to be a dozen other would-be autocrats stalking him in an effort to get him to trip up.

And, lastly, don’t forget the real possibility of some sort of civil war should DeSantis win the presidency only via the skullduggery of a MAGA Congress.

States Are Now The Laboratories Of Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be, the famous quip about the states was that they were the “laboratories of democracy.” Sadly, the opposite is now true — in MAGA state after state, would-be autocrats are testing out different autocratic measures in an hope of catching the attention of the MAGA faithful.

Because of the fundimental anti-democratic nature of the modern MAGA Republican Party, by definition, if you want to make a name for yourself as a would-be Republican nominee, you have to think up new and creative ways of strangling democracy on a state level. From Texas, to South Dakota to Florida, governor after governor has made it clear that their goal is to strangle American democracy in the name of “making America great again.”

And, I think, that’s the crux of what a lot of people are missing about what’s going on in the United States right now — Trump has always been nothing more than an avatar. As such, even if we magically took Trump out of the equation there are many, many men and women chomping at the bit to finish the transition to autocracy that Trump began.

So, in a sense, we’re pretty much fucked. Totally, and completely, fucked.

In fact, I would say we’re so fucked that the other option before us, civil war, might, in a sense be the better one because even though it would be a horrific tragedy, at least there would be the possibility that we would come out on the other side with a stronger democracy.

That’s kind of dark and I don’t like to think about that, but, yikes is autocracy bearing down on us.

What Are Trump, Mark Meadows & Their Merry Band Of Seditious Idiots Up To?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The core group of people who surrounded Mad King Trump fling off so much bullshit at any one moment that it’s very difficult to figure out what the fuck they’re talking about sometimes. But, just recently, former Trump COS Mark Meadows make it sound like Trump was plotting some sort of return sooner rather than later.

I struggle to figure out what’s going on.

Either it’s all bullshit meant to make Trump feel better, or they’re actively planning to take advantage of the potential instability caused by Cyber Ninjas “proving” that Trump “won” Arizona. If it’s the latter, then they’re actively stetting the stage for a national version of January 6th.

Here’s how it would go down.

Sometime soon — in August, maybe? — Cyber Ninjas comes out with a preliminary report that says Trump won Arizona. Trump spooges his pants and won’t shut the fuck up about how this PROVES he won the 2020 election, even if it’s just one state. This sets of a cascading set of events where Red State legislatures across the country decide to hold “Decertification Conventions” meant to appease the MAGA base. Of course, soon enough, because of Trump screaming at them, these conventions turn into “Nullification Conventions” and, soon enough, once they realize that you can’t really nullify the results of a presidential election — Secessionist Conventions.

Then Trump really does do the ultimate ask the elected members of his violent personality cult — are you going to join my new Trumplandia government?

That is kind of the absolute, absolute worst case scenario.

More likely, all of this bullshit would be used to as part of a greater media narrative for the 2022 mid-terms. They might tell the MAGA base to vote so Trump the “real” president could become Speaker and, as such, be put into the line of secession to cause who knows mischief.

The point is — the moment Cyber Ninjas comes out with their preliminary report, all hell might break loose. Or not. Everything is very much up in the air at this point.

Pretty much anything might happen. The key issue is, could Trump unto himself, be catalyst enough to force a secession crisis if he isn’t “re-instated.”

Struggling To Parse Out The MAGA Narrative Of The Jan. 6th Capitol Insurrection


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA hates it when something makes them look bad, despite their “Fuck your feelings” rhetoric. Also, remember, Trump lives in his own surreal Upside Down and demands otherwise sane people to tow the line, so they end up tying themselves into rhetorical knots to explain his erratic statements.

But, here goes.

Apparently, the parts MAGA doesn’t like — the violent attempt to murder people with Blue Lives Matter Flags and Old Glory part — was actually a combination of Antifa, the FBI and BLM. Meanwhile, once the blood sport portion of the event ended, the people who went into the Capitol itself, THOSE people were just tourists who wanted to peacefully look around without an appointment. Though, given all the agitation that Trump et al were directly responsible for the idea that these, perfectly peaceful people’s agenda was just to hang out and talk to their Congress member is…dubious?

That doesn’t even begin to address the “Welcome To The New Right” part of all of this in the sense that there may come a point when the never-ending drift towards fascism on the part of the Republican Party will force all conservatives to embrace and extend what happened. You see some of this already in how they’re trying to turn Ashli Babbitt into some sort of MAGA martyr. This is another aspect of this rhetorical clusterfuck that is difficult to understand.

So, the violent part of what happened was a False Flag operation. And Ms. Babbitt is a martyr who was just minding her own business — EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE FOOTAGE OF EXACTLY WHAT SHE WAS DOING THAT CAUSED HER DEATH. Had she not been shot, there’s a good chance that that “the False Flag operation” that was going on all around her would have ended in the death of a number of elected officials. UGH.

I suppose the point of all this bullshit is to simply address the outrage of normal, non-MAGA people in an a la carte manner. If MAGA’s defenses for what happened are contradictory and make no sense, so what. Libs. Owned.

And the thing we need right now — for the January 6th Insurrection to pry traditional conservatives away from MAGA just isn’t going to happen. That’s why Mitch McConnell et al are acting the way they are now. Trump is still very popular within conservative circles. The base is drifting closer and closer to totally embracing fascism and white nationalism. So, lulz, so what.

I don’t have any easy answers for you. It’s not like I write for VOX or anything.

Negative Polarization Based On Abstract Fears Is A Hell Of A Drug


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is now impossible to talk about politics with my far more conservative relatives. This is disheartening for a number of reasons, chief among them being — oh boy — when the autocracy comes I’m beginning to think they’re going to be Good Germans and let me meet my fate alone when ICE comes knocking.

The thing I struggle with is — why are things like this?

There’s something warping the American political system to its breaking point. In short, the politics of our 240 year old liberal democracy have frozen up in a way not seen since before the Civil War. Outside of the fringe NeverTrump movement on Twitter, to be an American conservative is to be MAGA, even if you don’t perceive yourself as MAGA.

The vast majority of all American conservatives are now effectively anti-democratic MAGA people to the point that they will welcome the autocracy with open arms when it arrives. Or, worst yet, they won’t even see it as an autocracy when it happens. People like me and Norm Ornstein will hysterically scream autocracy, while my conservative relatives simply won’t notice or care.

Or, even worse, if a civil war breaks out, I won’t be able to turn to them for succor. I’m going to be on my own. Oh boy.

And, yet, I continue to wonder what, specifically, is causing this weird warping of the American political system. What, specifically is causing otherwise normal, educated conservatives to defend the “cruelty is the point” element of MAGA? There simply is nothing that MAGA believes or wants that the conservatives I know believe is too much. They were upset about the insurrection but I know damn well that because of negative polarization they’ll vote for Trump in 2024 because of the extensive permission structure they’ll have at their disposal.

All I got when it comes to the addictive nature of negative polarization is a number of macro trends all came to a head around 2016. Republicans lost the culture wars. It became clear that demographic trends were NOT in white America’s favor. College became so expensive that it was not a part of the American Dream of upward mobility for the salt of the earth.

Add to this the Fox News bullshit echo chamber and you have the makings of people who know something isn’t right in America anymore, but they just don’t quite know what it is. They have a general feeling that liberals have something to do it. (Even though, of course, most of the excesses that conservatives hate so much come from Leftists, not liberals.)

So, as I mentioned before, the thing that really bothers me is my conservative relatives — not matter what happens — will never make common cause with me in opposing the rise of fascism in the United States. Never. I’m on my own. It’s a real struggle for me because I know on a personal level fascism isn’t something they agree with.

And, yet, their abstract fears over Cancel Culture, “safe spaces,” “microaggressions,” and Critical Race Theory are soooooooooooo fucking absolute that they effectively support Trump and MAGA’s worse excesses.

So, lulz, now what.

The New Normal: Life In The Time Of A Criminal Ex-President


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump is a cold, hard criminal. And an idiot. And very lazy. And, tragically, a still-popular ex-president. So, what are we going to do about him?

Well, there’s a pretty wide spectrum out endgames for this particular orange ding-dong. On one end, we have him finally meeting some sort of reckoning. In its most extreme, Trump would be “locked up” and we wouldn’t have to worry about him anymore.

Lulz. Then, on the OTHER end of the spectrum is reality — civil war or autocracy.

Now what.

Despite his best efforts, Trump was not able to destroy the United States. But as long as he’s got breath in his lungs and greed in his heart, he’s going to keep trying. So, I just don’t see anything ever happening to Trump, no matter what we learn about him.

We could have absolute proof that he coordinated the January 6th Insurrection with Congressional Republican leadership. We could have proof that he literally was using American foreign policy as a cash cow. The fucking list goes on. Once Mueller chocked at the behest of Barr and gave Trump a political pardon, that was it. Trump is now politically above the law. We just don’t have the political will to do anything about the fucking asshole.

America has reached a singularity of derp when it comes to dipshit Trump. The Republican Party is now a fascist, violent personality cult and there’s no going back. Because of a combination of racism, misogyny, and macro historical trends that are severely warping our politics, Trump is now something of the God King of Dune of American politics. We just don’t have any political will when it comes to him.

Look at it this way — in my personal experience, my relatives who are far more conservative than I am hate, in an abstract manner, liberal progressives so fucking much that they are prepared to let me be throw into a Trump branded ICE camp rather than form a united front with me and people like me to defeat Trumpism — even though they don’t like Trump!

The inability to get conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA to put aside abstract negative polarization long enough to destroy the cancer that is MAGA is very depressing on a political basis. It’s because of this that we continue to careen towards civil war or autocracy.

Those are our choices by no later than January 2025: autocracy or civil war.

MAGA has gone septic. Our political system is warped. The country is far more unstable than Twitter liberals are willing to admit

What’s the endgame? I dunno.

You tell me.

American Politics Is Dead


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, American Twitter Liberals are oblivious to how dire things are on a practical level political in the United States. Traditional politics have collapsed.

Politically, I’m the only center-Left person in my immediate family and it’s now officially impossible for me to talk politics with my far more conservative siblings. They either freak out on me or they are so consumed with recursive thinking brought on by negative polarization that it’s a moot point.

This is not great!

The fact that America is now so divided by partisan politics that you can’t have just a casual conversation about politics with people you disagree with means we’re a lot further down the road to the existential choice of civil war or autocracy than Twitter liberals would have us believe.

People are beginning to make fun of me for how much I talk about this, but I don’t know what I can do — all the metrics definitely indicate to me that that existential choice is hurtling towards us at an alarming rate. If it doesn’t happen it will be because of something that no one — not even I — can predict.

I think some of all of this stems from some people simply can’t process the concept that the United States is either going to transition into a Russian style autocracy or have a civil war. They’re so busy living their lives and raising their kids that the idea that something so dramatic would happen is just not something they can process.

Virginia’s January 2025 Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Virginia is really two states, at least. You have the high density, liberal crescent that starts in NOVA, goes through Richmond and ends in Hampton Roads — and everywhere else. The “everywhere else” is extremely fucking conservative to the point that should the opportunity come, its population will warmly embrace whatever autocratic rule may arrive.

As such, Virginia even more unstable than the greater United States. We also have a off-year election coming up and it’s very easy to see the little Trumpkin who wants to be governor winning. This would set up a situation where should the United States buckle in the fall of 2024 because of a severe political crisis surrounding the 2024 election that Virginia is going to collapse.

This touches on something that is not very obvious at the moment. Because of the precedent set by the first Civil War, we all assume it will be conservatives that force the issue and (attempt to) leave the Union. But this are spinning out of control so badly — and Republican MAGA New Right people are so fucking politically bloodthirsty — that it’s also possible that they’re going to sucker punch Blue States.

And it’s Blue States that attempt to leave the Union, not Red States.

I mention this because it’s easy to see Virginia’s MAGA New Right governor going all-in with the Congressional nullification of a Biden re-election and the urban centers of Virginia — including the capital of Richmond — having none of it and overthrowing the state government in support of the rightful winner of the election Biden.

I’m making the assumption, obviously, that Biden wins outright and it’s nullification we have to worry about it. It could be that we don’t get that far because Republicans simply make it so fucking difficult to vote that no Democrat ever wins election again.

Anyway!

The point is — don’t sleep on Republicans “catching the car” of transitioning us into a Russian-style autocracy, only to bungle the “last mile” and it’s Blue States that bounce. And states like Virginia collapse altogether when the more populace Blue portions of the state revolt against the MAGA New Right govenor.

He hasn’t won yet, but I think he has a very good shot of winning for no other reason than any functioning liberal democracy has an ebb and flow to it. It’s inevitable that a fascist MAGA New Right candidate is going to win.

Now, I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what’s going to happen. I’m just using the available metrics I have around me, then extrapolating from them to sketch out what might happen in a few years. I will note that it’s possible that it could be either now, because of the Cyber Ninjas clusterfuck or 2022 -2023 because we can’t handle the passions of even a mid-term election that all my dystopian hellscapes happen.

Who knows. All I know is, thing’s are great right now when it comes to our liberal democracy.

America On The Brink: Our Dangerous Modern Political Dynamic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The conditions exist for something dramatic to happen in the United States, all that is missing is some sort of catalyst. Autocracy is very popular with the MAGA New Right Republican base, to the point that if some unexpected event happens the country could face a serious secession crisis almost totally out of the blue.

When people on the right think of the term “liberal” as so loaded that they can’t bare to even say it in the context of “liberal democracy” — you got a problem. Also, when your standard bedrock conservatives — usually the foundation of any stable liberal democracy — are all-in with fascist talking points, you got a problem.

Most of the American Right is so consumed with “owning the libs” and negative polarization that their first reaction to the most egregious excesses of the fascist MAGA New Right is to say, “Sounds good to me.” We’ve reached a point where the country is so absolutely divided that should something put unexpected added pressure on our political system who the fuck knows what will happen.

In other words, the United States is a powder keg waiting for someone to drop a match.

Near term, there are two things I can think of that would be that match — Cyber Ninjas giving Trump the “win” in Arizona he craves. Meanwhile, if there was some sort of organized terrorist attack (by either side) that would also be enough to cause some sort of severe political crisis. I’m not prepared to say we’ll have some sort of good old boy MAGA New Right “revolution” that people keep searching for and ending up at this blog, but it’s possible some sort of secession crisis MIGHT Happen.

Longer term, I’m beginning to think that the country is so fucking fragile on a political basis that it could be the passions of the 2022 mid-terms that are enough to cause a secession crisis. Things really are that dire. But we’re definitely going to face a severe political crisis of some sort in late 2024 to early 2025.

The only we avoid it is if something REALLY FUCKING BIG happens between now and then. Otherwise, we’re fucked.

‘Is America Going To Have A Civil War?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok. Take a deep breath. If you’ve searched for this topic and found yourself here you’re in the right place. I’ve been writing on this topic extensively for months now. But here’s what I think is the answer to your question.

A Second American Civil War is actually one end of a spectrum of fates America faces between now and January 2025 — the other being a MAGA New Right autocracy. It’s possible you’re just so angry with “libtards” that you want a civil war RIGHT NOW. It’s possible — not probable — that you will get your wish sooner rather than later.

If it’s going to happen in months and not years, then either Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” in Arizona and that sets off a chain reaction that leads to a secession crisis, or things get really dark really quick and an important political figure decides to drop dead one way or another and THAT leads to a secession crisis that leads to a civil war. All the hope of some sort of populist MAGA New Right “revolution” RIGHT NOW seems a bit dubious.

You probably want a very simple answer to the real question, of: when do you get to murder people in cold blood for their political views?

I honestly don’t know, my deranged MAGA New Right reader. You’re going to need a catalyst. All the conditions are there, but for there to be a civil war in the United States, something’s gotta give.

I understand why you think that at any moment good old boys are going to murder liberals en mass, but I would be shocked if it happened anytime soon. You need organization and some sort of military for a modern civil war to take place.

So, you’re best best is probably late 2024- early 2025.

THEN you get your civil war (if you don’t get your MAGA New Right autocracy.)

As such, just cool it. We’re not going to have a civil war…just yet.