Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The Coming Elector Intimidation Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, TrumpBarr blew it when they didn’t strike before the media called the election. That was a political act and, as such, they were dealt a significant blow.

So now we enter the a far more dangerous moment post – election when House Trump begins its extra-political attempts to stay in power. I keep saying that autocrats never lose and, well, this isn’t over yet. But the issue is — the only reason why Trump got himself into this situation is he’s so deranged and incompetent that he didn’t lay the groundwork to “not lose” in a far less conspicuous manner.

Two things stick out for me.

One is, this has the same dynamic as the Whitewater investigation that ultimately led to Bill Clinton being impeached. It’s building. It’s happening in the far right’s bullshit echochamber, but it’s building. And just like they say someone goes bankrupt “gradually then all at once,” so, too, is this crisis going to build and then pop out in a rather astonishing fashion.

The other is, what’s going on right now is exactly what happened in 2016, only this time there’s an actual chance this stress test on the Constitution might work, and, as such, cause significant political violence. Trump has said that he won’t leave power until he’s exhausted every possible option. What he means by that is, every step along the way to Biden becoming president, he’s going to attack and corrupt the process in a hysterical, vicious manner.

So, it seems pretty obvious that as I have long said, we’re going to have an Elector Crisis. As the shock wears off and MAGA begins to think about its options, Electors — the weakest link in the Constitution — will begin to grow in significance. They will whip themselves into a crazed frenzy at the idea that if they can just get enough faithless Electors they can win. Probably what will happen is some MAGA shithead is going to kill an Elector as a reminder to them what they should do. Then, to make matters worse, Trump will dox them all on Twitter and we’re going to have a massive, existential crisis as we all worry about what the Electoral College is going to do. To the point that all 300 million of us know the personalities of the Electors way, way, more well than we ever possible imagine.

But hopefully this will pass and we’ll go to whatever the next step in the process is and Trump will attack THAT. Then, probably, he probably is going to fucking lose his mind and salt the earth in a rather dramatic fashion. He may also pardon himself and flee the country.

In a sense, that’s a best case scenario.

The worse case scenario is there’s a civil war / revolution as Trump grows so radical that he simply seizes “total control’ and fuck you, lib. If that happens, I honestly don’t know what the endgame would be. Though I have said the dead hand of history would suggest Trump will win and we’re all fucked.

But I was wrong before — because Trump is too incompetent to be an effective autocrat — and so it’s possible we’re going to have a civil war / revolution and in the end, after a lot of needless, tragic deaths, things will go back to “normal” in some way. But the whole thing is going to suck so bad.

Just like with all such shitty historical situations, we will give it value and a narrative after the fact in an effort to make ourselves feel better for what we did to ourselves.

A Very American Coup at This Late Date?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, we can all take a deep breath and relax for a moment. On a political level, we’re officially in a new era — the Biden Era. But it ain’t over yet. We have three months of not only Trump having zero accountability, but his continued craven desire to stay in office and an entire Republican Party willing to facilitate those desires.

We’ve officially gone past the point of no return — any extra-political attempt on the part of Trump to stay in power will be seen for what it is: a coup. Or, put another way, while Republicans have shown a willingness to destroy every aspect of our liberal democracy to stay in power if they start fucking with the election at this late date there will be severe, historical political consequences. Maybe even existential for the modern Republican Party.

There are plenty — plenty — absolute worst case scenarios one could imagine in the coming days. Everything from the Republicans figuring out a way to get SCOTUS to define “legal” votes so narrowly that Trump “wins” (doesn’t lose) to Trump doxing individual Electors on Twitter. The list goes on.

I think the thing we have to really appreciate is Trump is in shock right now. And once that shock wears off, he may freak the fuck out and go full autocrat on us in an effort to stay in power no matter what. I thought he might have the wherewithal to do that before the election was officially called, but I guess we were lucky. His incompetent delusional nature was simply stronger than his autocratic nature.

So, in a sense, relative to what a more competent autocrat would do — he blew it.

But once the shock wears off, it’s very possible Trump will go full autocrat with the full support of Interior Minister Barr. He really could dox individual Electors on Twitter in hopes of getting them to vote for him. That could really happen. Or he might offer to bribe them. I mean, the man has absolutely no accountability at this point, what we going to do? Impeach him? Use the 25 Amendment? All he — and the Republican Party — cares about is power.

Once he is sworn in again — no matter how he gets to do it — I doubt there would be enough votes to convict him in the Senate. Let that sink in for a moment.

Yet I, to date, have been proven very, very wrong. So wrong, in fact, that you probably should aggressively ignore anything I have to say about modern politics. I have, however, repeatedly said that all my pontificating is simply my very conspicuous way of making my abstract fears concrete and, as such, more manageable

It’s possible that Trump will fold and everything will work out. But I am concerned at the silence of the vast majority of the Republican Party. It’s as if they’re waiting to see what Trump does. If he goes the full autocrat route, they are going to fully support him and, as such a coup then civil war is almost certain to happen.

We’ve just gone too far. Any attempt to change the definition of “legal” votes by the Republicans at SCOTUS will probably be successful. But as they say, what happens when the dog catches the car? The same thing would happen to Republicans — they would get what they wanted, but they would get what they wanted. The cost of “catching the car” might on a immediate level make them happy, but almost immediately they would face a violent reaction.

I would go so far as to say the U.S. Military might weigh the politics of the situation and tell the Republicans to fuck off. But that’s really pushing it. I have no idea. If Republicans staged a coup in the courts (or the Electoral College) I honestly don’t know what the endgame would be.

A Second American Civil War May Be Inevitable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything seems pretty calm right now, but for one thing — we don’t offically know who won. It’s possible that the moment we do know who won, two things will happen at the same instant — half the country will freak out with joy and half the country will freak out in rage.

Those two things happening at the same time do not make for a stable country.

And, what’s worse, it’s easy to imagine something pretty unexpected — a coordinated series of explosions across the country by far Right groups. I could even see the far Right’s first strike being a series of important assassinations of Democratic leaders. Anything they could do to push the particular situation out of the realm of politics and into simple violence.

If they did such a thing, it’s possible the next step would be two fold. One, a mob of angry New Yorkers might “take” Trump Tower (and Fox News.) Two, the political violence on the ground might grow so significant that we would see a consolidation of sides as there was a rush of domestic political refugees.

This doesn’t even begin to factor in the possibility of some sort of coup on the part of TrumpBarr. There are a wide range of options for TrumpBarr on that front. One of them being TrumpBarr uses any violence — even violence on the part of their supporters — to invoke the Insurrection Act to take “total control.” Trump is a moronic coward, but his supporters may decide to press the issue and he will see this as an opportunity.

I’m definitely not advocating any of this, but I don’t think we appricate the absolute devotion to The Dear Leader that MAGA-Qanon people have and the passions that the election has stirred up.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong — I often am.

It’s just something to think about going forward.

Autocrats Never Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, two facts are heading towards each other. On one hand, it definitely seems as though we may see unprecedented numbers of people vote in this election. On the other hand — autocrats never lose.

Add to this my personal belief that Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo with Trump for him removing 1/3 of our troops from German, and you have the makings of a massive clusterfuck — The Big Ugly.

Or, put another way, come January 20th, 2021, Trump is getting sworn in for a second term, no matter what. Even if it means we have dueling swearing in ceremonies and the country implodes. Even if Trump loses in a landslide, he’s going to sue everything and everyone in the way of his victory and he will win 5-4 or 6-3 at SCOTUS.

This is going to happen even if a sizable chunk of the Republican Establishment publically tells Trump to cool it and to leave office.

It’s just not going to happen.

I say this because Trump knows he’s probably got a real risk of being indicted if he ever leaves office. And the Russians have him by the short ones, so he has every reason to destroy the country before leaving office. And he has Bill Barr to make sure all this troubles go away.

The more difficult it becomes for TrumpBarr to stay in power, the more radical they will become. We could very well have A Very American Coup before it’s over with to the point that it’s seen as something of a political 9/11 — not even The New York Times will be able to “both sides” this — they’re going to have to admit that a coup is taking place.

The question, of course, is what the reaction of the average person will be to this Very American Coup. There’s something of a spectrum in my opinion — either there’s a lot of gnashing of teeth on Twitter but nothing really happens i the real world, or we careening towards The Big Ugly of some sort of civil war / revolution.

Of course, there is the “Trump Salts The Earth” scenario where Trump, after quickly bringing the country to the edge of The Big Ugly abruptly gives up, but tries to destroy as much as possible on his way out. He fires people, he pardons people — including himself! Or he won’t leave office unless he can quit and get Pence to pardon him.

The darkest scenario is Trump holds up in the White House and just rants on Twitter all day and we have to physically remove him from the Oval Office while a mob of angry MAGA shitheads surround the building to defend the Dear Leader.