Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

A Second American Civil War May Be Inevitable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything seems pretty calm right now, but for one thing — we don’t offically know who won. It’s possible that the moment we do know who won, two things will happen at the same instant — half the country will freak out with joy and half the country will freak out in rage.

Those two things happening at the same time do not make for a stable country.

And, what’s worse, it’s easy to imagine something pretty unexpected — a coordinated series of explosions across the country by far Right groups. I could even see the far Right’s first strike being a series of important assassinations of Democratic leaders. Anything they could do to push the particular situation out of the realm of politics and into simple violence.

If they did such a thing, it’s possible the next step would be two fold. One, a mob of angry New Yorkers might “take” Trump Tower (and Fox News.) Two, the political violence on the ground might grow so significant that we would see a consolidation of sides as there was a rush of domestic political refugees.

This doesn’t even begin to factor in the possibility of some sort of coup on the part of TrumpBarr. There are a wide range of options for TrumpBarr on that front. One of them being TrumpBarr uses any violence — even violence on the part of their supporters — to invoke the Insurrection Act to take “total control.” Trump is a moronic coward, but his supporters may decide to press the issue and he will see this as an opportunity.

I’m definitely not advocating any of this, but I don’t think we appricate the absolute devotion to The Dear Leader that MAGA-Qanon people have and the passions that the election has stirred up.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong — I often am.

It’s just something to think about going forward.

Autocrats Never Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, two facts are heading towards each other. On one hand, it definitely seems as though we may see unprecedented numbers of people vote in this election. On the other hand — autocrats never lose.

Add to this my personal belief that Russians are going to hack directly into our election systems as part of a quid pro quo with Trump for him removing 1/3 of our troops from German, and you have the makings of a massive clusterfuck — The Big Ugly.

Or, put another way, come January 20th, 2021, Trump is getting sworn in for a second term, no matter what. Even if it means we have dueling swearing in ceremonies and the country implodes. Even if Trump loses in a landslide, he’s going to sue everything and everyone in the way of his victory and he will win 5-4 or 6-3 at SCOTUS.

This is going to happen even if a sizable chunk of the Republican Establishment publically tells Trump to cool it and to leave office.

It’s just not going to happen.

I say this because Trump knows he’s probably got a real risk of being indicted if he ever leaves office. And the Russians have him by the short ones, so he has every reason to destroy the country before leaving office. And he has Bill Barr to make sure all this troubles go away.

The more difficult it becomes for TrumpBarr to stay in power, the more radical they will become. We could very well have A Very American Coup before it’s over with to the point that it’s seen as something of a political 9/11 — not even The New York Times will be able to “both sides” this — they’re going to have to admit that a coup is taking place.

The question, of course, is what the reaction of the average person will be to this Very American Coup. There’s something of a spectrum in my opinion — either there’s a lot of gnashing of teeth on Twitter but nothing really happens i the real world, or we careening towards The Big Ugly of some sort of civil war / revolution.

Of course, there is the “Trump Salts The Earth” scenario where Trump, after quickly bringing the country to the edge of The Big Ugly abruptly gives up, but tries to destroy as much as possible on his way out. He fires people, he pardons people — including himself! Or he won’t leave office unless he can quit and get Pence to pardon him.

The darkest scenario is Trump holds up in the White House and just rants on Twitter all day and we have to physically remove him from the Oval Office while a mob of angry MAGA shitheads surround the building to defend the Dear Leader.