The Curious Case Of Marie Yovanovitch, Donald Trump & Some Ukrainian Goons


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


One of the lingering questions of the enormous clusterufck that was the Trump Administration is how much Trump knew in advance about the physical risk Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch faced when she abruptly bugged out of Kiev. If you could prove that Trump knew exactly what was going on and was cool with it, then you got yourself a pretty big scandal.

If you could get to the next step of proving Trump not only knew about the goons intentions but approved of them and even maybe directed them, then, well, we’re going to the show.

It’s been a while, so my memory is a bit fuzzy, but just using what we already know about particular situation, it’s enough to send chills down your spine. Trump said, at one point, that Ambassador Yovanovitch was “going to be going through some things” and I seem to recall Trump getting even more explicit to the point where it definitely seemed as though he wanted physical harm to come to her.

Now, too often in the past I’ve thought Trump was going to be dealt a mortal political blow for this or that thing he did and absolutely nothing came of it. So, the case could be made that even if you could prove Trump not only knew but directed the goons who forced Ambassador Yovanovitch to flee Ukraine for her life in the middle of the night…it’s very possible MAGA would see it as a lulz.

But of all the post-presidency things that might, just might kneecap Trump’s chances of being the Republican 2024 nominee….proof that he was active in a plot to murder the American ambassador to Ukraine might(?) be enough to do the trick.

Contemplating A Secession Crisis In 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As always, America’s fate may rest with the actions of a ding-dong. I say this because there is a down low political crisis brewing in Arizona. If Republicans finally manage to “prove” that Trump “won” the state and then other states that Biden won that have deranged Republican legislatures follow suit, there may come a point when we have a severe political crisis on our hands.

And it would happen a lot quicker than you think.

All that would have to happen is just enough states flip from Biden to Trump through the nefarious machinations of Republicans to “prove” that Trump “really did win” and we might get that 2021 civil war way too many people seem interested in.

It’s easy to imagine Trump getting really excited and at the news that he “won” and crowing at every opportunity. (Now, over the years, I’ve come up with many, many, many over-the-top dystopian Trump scenarios and he’s proven himself to be too stupid and lazy to actually do any of them. So this could be another example of this. But hear me out.) This causes the small population lily white states of the Mountain area to call snap state conventions to secede from the Union because, well, lulz, Trump “won” YOLO.

I don’t really think this will happen, but there is a greater-than-zero-chance that it just might…in 2021.

And, yet, if you’re a fucking MAGA cucksucker who wants to murder liberals in cold blood as part of a Second American Civil War…you aren’t really thinking things through. Yes, you can probably get six or so states with very small — and white — populations to “leave” the Union…but what are you going to do about the South, you morons.

You’re so wrapped up in the Glorious Cause of “making America Great again” by having a ding-dong president for life, that you are completely missing the issue of race. Race and a Southern secession crisis is not something you just wave your Miller Lite at and mumble something about how you’re figure that out when you get to it. The moment MAGA legislatures in the South attempt to leave the Union so they can suck Donald Trump’s political cock, you got yourself a race war.

Race relations in the United States are pretty shitty as it is. Throw in MAGA Nazis wanting to put African Americans under their jackboot in the South and…oh boy. That is not going to go well.

But given how idiotic MAGA people are on this subject — they really, really want a fucking civil war — I would suggest there are a few milestones to look for in the coming days. If these things begin to happen, then, yes, you can spooge in your AR-15 then clean it off and start thinking how you can murder people like me in cold blood because of cancel culture.

  1. Trump “wins” because Biden’s wins in a number of states are overturned by MAGA legislatures.
  2. Trump goes nuts and runs around saying he won and is actually still president. He won’t shut up about it and the fucking cocksucker MAGA people start to listen
  3. A number of MAGA Nazi state legislatures call secessionist conventions to leave the Union because, lulz, Trump is “really” president.
  4. The secession crisis smacks into the South and African Americans begin to freak the fuck out and something akin to a race war erupts.
  5. Average people begin to vote with their feet, with Red people in Blue states and Blue people in Red states fleeing their states because they fear for their lives simply because of a difference in political views with people around them in their neighborhoods.
  6. The two sides differences harden because of this political consolidation and the U.S. Military even begins to have problems with people leaving their ranks to side with the secessionists.
  7. Trump forms some sort of “shadow government” and calls up troops from the states that have “left” the Union.
  8. All hells breaks loose. There’s a civil war. A lot of people die. But at least Mary Sue won’t have to worry about being canceled after she yelled at a African American clerk for getting her order wrong.

    Ugh.

‘Civil War 2021’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Come on, people. While I’ll give you that a Second American Civil War is one of two options we face in 2024, something pretty big would have to happen for a civil war to happen this year.

In fact, there’s only one scenario I can think of using existing information that might lead to a civil war: recount efforts in states that Trump lost pick up steam after Republicans in Arizona finally get the result they crave ( a Trump win) and that leads to such instability that something akin to a civil war happens before the end of the year.

That’s it. That’s all I got. Otherwise, all you good old boys smoking a doobie on the back parch in deepest Alabama who think dem dar libtards need to get murdered in cold blood ’cause of cancel culture are just going to have to wait until the 2024-2025 time frame to quench your bloodlust.

Also — fuck you, you fucking redneck, by the way.

Anyway, I am now getting a constant stream of people using keywords “civil war 2021” or “civil war in 2021?” or “revolution in 2021?” Chill out you fucking idiots. That Red fucktwads would be so excited about the prospect of a Second American Civil War is, in itself, a metric that should cause alarm.

The thing that bothers me the most is Twitter liberals are simply not taking the glorification of political violence on the part of the Right seriously. They are so busy thinking they can somehow magically make D.C. a state that they are totally oblivious to how a portion of the Right is chomping at the bit to start murdering people for their politics.

There are no easy answers to any of this, I’m afraid. Just get ready for it to get worse, a lot worse. In 2024, as I keep saying, we’re going to face a very stark choice — autocracy at the hands of MAGA or civil war. Everyone will have to pick a side.

An Illuminative Conversation That May Portend A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I had a very interesting conversation with a very conservative relative recently. It was very illuminative about what’s going on with the Right until I got really angry and it abruptly ended. At the end of the conversation I got really, really mad because my interlocutor refused to acknowledge that Trump was the direct cause of the January 6th Capitol Insurrection. This, after we all saw Trump incite the revolt on TV. And, what’s more, the person I was talking to agreed with me right after the event!

But he had changed his mind, apparently, since then.

The interesting thing about talking to someone from the Right, especially someone who is smart and well educated is that many of their views are the exact opposite of mine. But it was interesting that there was one issue that he believed but could not support — he believed that it would be Leftists, not MAGA, who would attempt to establish an autocracy.

I pressed him on why he believed this, and he just blinked a few times until we moved on.

It’s how conversations like this one cause people to stop talking about politics altogether that indicate MAGA cocksuckers are going to get their long-sought after Second American Civil War soon enough. The bolts are popping of our political discourse in an alarming rate and soon enough, just like slave power in 1861, MAGA Republicans (in probably 2025) are going to come to believe that if they can’t get an autocracy that their only recourse is a civil war.

When two people from opposite ends of the political spectrum simply give up talking about politics because things grow too heated, then the whole system is going to collapse one way or another. Either you get an autocracy where half of the electorate has given up or you get a civil war where both sides believe politics is no longer a viable option to enact policy change.

So, my chief take away from the conversation I had recently is America is a powder keg. At some point — probably in the 2024-2025 timeframe — we will be presented with a very, very stark choice: civil war or a MAGA autocracy. The Right has already established the ideological framework for a civil war and, in fact, they crave it.

You can only rant about how much you hate “libtards” and because they love open boarders and “want to kill babies” before you organize in a collective manner to “end” that particular “problem” once an for all. As I keep saying, MAGA forgoing politics for political violence is very, very dumb for a number of reasons.

But it definitely seems — at least if my Webstats are any indication — that good old boys all over America want to murder people like me once they get the chance. How successful they will ultimately be is anyone’s guess.

Second American Civil War 2021: The Growing Arizona Recount Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Almost all of this blog’s traffic now comes from people nervous about a Second American Civil War or revolution sometime soon. Given where most of these people are from, it definitely seems as though a bunch of MAGA good old boys search for this subject while drinking Millar Lites on the back porch of their cabin with a good buddy.

I would guess this happens because of this or that perceived slight on the part of “libtards” get them so worked up they start to think a Second American Civil War is bound to happen any moment now.

I’m growing alarmed by events in Arizona. It definitely seems as though the Arizona Republican Party is absolutely determined to do as many recounts of their presidential votes as necessary to prove that Trump won. This go round, they’ve gone so far as to pick a brand name in the “Stop The Steal” movement to be among those conducting the recount. And, from what I can tell, security isn’t so great where their doing the recount. AND, Trump has demanded the National Guard be called in to monitor the recount.

So, much fear is, after yet another recount, Arizona Republicans will “prove” that Trump “won” and, as such, this will set off a chain reaction. Trump will first run around crowing that he won Arizona after all. It will become gospel among Republicans that Trump won Arizona. It will be come a talking point that Republicans pivot to whenever there is a discussion of the 2020 election. Another thing that might happen is other states that Trump feels he should have won will do the exact same thing and before you know it, the country will become very, very unstable.

Could it be Second American Civil War in 2021 unstable? Unclear. It’s possible, but not probably. So, I guess if you want to fuck your gun, you can think about Arizona while you sodomize your AR-15 or something. But if Arizona Republicans manage to flip their state to Trump — even if it’s debunked — then we really are careening towards civil war or autocracy in 2024-2025.

As for 2021, I’m reluctant to think we’re going to have a civil war so early.

2024 Is Going To Be A Dark Year


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t think that Twitter liberals really appreciate how fucked the United States is in 2024. All the macro metrics point to something rather catastrophic happening one way or another — either we become an autocratic managed democracy or we have a civil war.

The reason why Twitter liberals are so blasé about all of this is they simply refuse to take MAGA’s glorification of political violence seriously. But a sizable portion of the American electorate has bought into the Trump Big Lie and we simply aren’t going to make it through the passions of another presidential cycle. The goal, of course, of Republicans in 2024 is sucker punch us by convincing the average voter that the only way a Democrat can become president is if Democrats control Congress. They’ve already conditioned us to accept a massive difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College as well as Republicans blocking any SCOTUS nominee that they have the power to block.

It’s just a brief jaunt to Republicans saying, “If we control Congress, we will nullify any Electoral College vote we don’t like.”

That will be the moment of truth. Either we shrug and accept this to be the case and Republicans simply run the country for generations to come because we’ve given up — or there’s a tragic and violent civil war. I would like for there to be some sort of middle ground, but we punted the problem of MAGA down the road in 2020 because of a very curious, very specific set of circumstances and it’s not going to happen again.

Everyone will face a stark, existential choice.

I guess there are a few less startling scenarios — like a MAGA Republican winning fair and square and then being content to have “hard power” while the center-Left has “soft power,” but that may be wishful thinking. Republicans no longer see liberal democracy as a legitimate form of government. They only see it as a means to an end: getting or keeping power.

You can only be hysterical about how much you hate CNN and MSNBC for so long before people take you both seriously and literally and decide to do something about them. So, it’s very easy to imagine some fascist MAGA POTUS starting off slow with clamping down on dissent, then growing more more brazen because form follows function if nothing else.

Then before the next presidential election rolls around, we’ve had a Constitutional Convention designed specifically to “root out woke cancel culture” once an for all. It will likely be marketed as some sort of “Second Bill of Rights” but, in fact, it will be a massive power grab meant to turn the United States into a white Christian ethno state.

But let me stress, again — I’m often wrong. I’m just sketching out what seems likely given macro metrics as of early 2021 and then extrapolating forward four years. Anything can happen.

Republicans Will Attempt To Nullify A 2024 Democratic Win


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Enjoy the next two years of normal life, is all I gotta say. The moment Republicans take control of the House (and Senate) things are going to be lit. The first thing they’re going to do, of course, is try to impeach Biden for Not Being Trump. It doesn’t matter what it is. Just if Biden is Not Trump, that’s enough to get him impeached.

And Republicans are going to demand as many witnesses as possible and probably pull in Hunter Biden along the way. But that’s just the prelude to the made event: in 2024, Republicans — if they can — will nullify any Biden win. Their hope in doing so will be people will assume that a Democrat can never become president unless Congress is controlled by Democrats. Then people just stop voting altogether and America’s decent into an autocratic managed democracy like they have in Russia will be complete.

What anyone who is not MAGA has to understand is Republicans live in a completely different political universe than we do. They live in the Upside Down which is full of surreal, paranoid conspiracies and a hate of POC and women with sexual agency to such an extent that they’re more than willing to accept tyranny. That’s why it’s so difficult to talk to MAGA people — the very thing I fear as a nightmare, they look forward to.

You can’t bring up systemic racism, because they don’t believe it exists. And pretty much anything you might bring up that’s based in fact that goes against their media narrative, they dismiss as “woke cancel culture.”

As such, that’s why we’re careening towards a “reset” of sorts in the United States in the 2024-2025 time frame. Shit is going to get real, as they say. The United States is either going to become a Republican-controlled autocracy or we’re going to have a violent, cataclysmic second American civil war. One so bad that the basics of modern American life will be in short supply. Electricity, the Internet, free press and freedom of movement — not to mention assembly — will no longer be things we can assume will be there.

And it’s all going to start as early as late 2024 or as late as early 2025. In fact, we may have a replay of the January 6th, 2021 capitol insurrection, only a quantum leap worse in severity. I can’t even tell you which side will be in rebellion. It could very well be the center-Left if, as I fear, Republicans in Congress simply refuse to allow Biden a second term because they no longer see anyone in power who is not a Republican as legitimate.

As I keep saying, I can’t predict the future. I have no idea if my dystopian predictions are anywhere near being close to what might happen. But I do know that on a macro level the conditions are there for the United States to either become a Russia clone or buckle and have a new civil war. A sizable minority of Republicans already glorify political violence. They’re chomping at the bit to have the opportunity to run around murdering center-Left people like me.

At least we have a few years of peace and quiet to prepare.

2024: Second American War Aims In Red & Blue


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. I have no reveled truth. But as I keep saying, in the 2024-2025 timeframe it’s very, very, very likely that either the United States turns into a Russian style managed democracy run by white minority Republicans for generations to come — or there’s a civil war.

But I suspect it might be more of a spectrum, with civil war at one end and autocracy at the other. A lot depends on the specifics of what happens from the moment the Republican nominee is decided until someone is sworn in on January 20th, 2025. Let’s assume, however, that there is a Second American Civil War. What would be the war aims of the two sides?

One thing you have to understand is things are so spinning out of control that in the end, it could be either side that sparks a civil war, depending on how close the election is and how brazen the Republicans are in nullifying any outcome they don’t like. In a sense, the issue is who gets the USA “brand.” Republicans have already made the mental preparations necessary to start running around murdering people for political reasons and by 2024 they will be on a hair trigger to do just that.

I struggle to understand what Reds would want via a civil war when if they were just patient, they could get everything they want through politics. What they want is to turn the United States into Russia with them on top forever.

They are already well on their way to achieving that via gerrymandering, voter suppression and the existence of the Senate. No need to murder anyone for political reasons.

But the issue is — Republicans are impatient and because of the rot within the American political system on a macro level, they’re probably going to just nullify any 2024 election outcome they don’t like. And that will be the thing that sparks a Second American Civil War.

What makes predicting war aims for Red and Blue so difficult at this point is I don’t know who will be the US and who will be the Rebels. It literally could be either side. If Biden wins and manages to overcome Republican nullification attempts, then a number of Red states will attempt to bounce. Or they will simply try to take over the entire country and impose their will on Blue States. I guess their war aims would be to murder all liberals and ensure that white people are in control of the country no matter what.

If Biden loses or “doesn’t win” because Republicans nullify his election, then it will be Blue states who are the Rebels who either try to leave the Union or attempt to get the right to use the USA brand. At this point, for the Blues, everything would hinge on if California wanted to stay in the Union or not. California is so big on an economic and population scale, that it could be the engine for any successful re-imagining of the United States using Blue ideals. Without California, then Reds would have both Texas and Florida to draw upon and would probably successfully win any Second American Civil War. Though, Texas might not be all that stable because it’s shifting towards being a Blue state and it has a big enough minority population that it might just implode before it could help Republicans do much of anything.

And, remember, it’s very likely that WMD will be seized by both sides and we’ll just start nuking the hell out of each other until things that I can’t imagine or predict at this point happen and either the country is re-united one way or another or there’s some sort of long-term balkanization of the former United States.

But make no mistake — we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked and the sooner we all start to take this absolute historical inevitability seriously, the better.

America’s Undead Politics & The Risk Of a Second American Civil War in 2024


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States continues to careen towards a very stark choice in 2024: autocracy or civil war. Those will be our only choices. I just don’t see anything happening that will allow us to punt the slow moving political crisis we’re in down the road anymore beyond that.

One big reason I see this being the case is the political talking heads on TV are completely oblivious to what’s really going on with the Republican Party. It’s not dying. It’s not imploding. It’s simply growing more hateful, vicious and autocratic by the moment. It’s nastiness has gone septic and in the end, when push comes to shove, the Republican Party would rather nullify any election they don’t like rather than allow a Democrat to be president.

American politics, American democracy is undead right now. It’s completely non-functioning and it simply will not be able to survive the passions of another presidential cycle. Either we stop being a liberal democracy altogether and become nothing more than an autocratic managed democracy like Russia, or we start murdering each other in cold blood for political reasons.

There is no in-between anymore because the Republican Party knows that because of the browning of America they will either die politically or have to restructure themselves in a pretty massive fashion if we continue to be traditional liberal democracy. Because they’re fucking cowards who love money and power and know they can continue to have both through fear — they are going to destroy the United States one way or another.

So the people on Morning Joe keep grasping for some explanation for why Republicans continue to act and believe the way they do, it’s because they are ignoring the obvious answer: we’re in the quiet before something very, very dramatic happening in our political history in the 2024-2025 timeframe. It’s going to be a massive reset of everything.

Either we fight it out through a civil war of some sort, or we simply turn into an autocracy where we’re governed by a deranged white minority for generations to come. Again, let me stress — there will be no middle ground. Everyone, of every political stripe, will have to pick a side no matter what. It will be an existential choice in the sense that when you make it, you’re going to feel like you’re putting your life, and the lives of everyone you care about, in danger if you pick wrong.

At this point, I still don’t know which path the United States is going to take. But I do know a path will be chosen.

We Have To Take MAGA’s Glorification Of Political Violence Seriously


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate violence. I hate guns. So, MAGA’s growing obsession with the glorification of political violence is surreal to me. But it’s something we have to take seriously — they are. The thing we have to be aware of is the fucked up fascist shit MAGA pulled in 2020 will be a quantum leap worse in 2024. Given four more years to stew in their fetid fascist juices, it’s easy to imagine the 2024 election being so rife with political violence that it’s not free and fair.

And if that doesn’t happen, the period between Election Night 2024 and January 20, 2025 may be simply one huge attempt on the part of every elected Republican official to ensure that Biden isn’t sworn in again. That may, in fact, be the whole point of the 2024 Republican Party — nullify any presidential election result they don’t like. They will have no other policies other than that and embracing political violence.

It’s very possible that Tucker Carlson or Lara Trump may win fair and square and we’ll simply slide into autocracy with a whimper not a bang. If that happens, then we will never have another free and fair election. Putin’s Russia is already beloved by MAGA Republicans. It’s easy to see his style of governance coming to the United States in some form.

The media will be purged. The ICE infrastructure will be weaponized. All the things that Trump wasn’t able to follow through with, his MAGA successor will be able to complete. There will be a moment in time when the Republican president will have hard power and the center-Left leaning media will have soft power and there will be some sort of truce.

For the average person, there won’t be much of a difference in everyday life. That is, of course, until suddenly all the late night TV hosts are abruptly changed and CNN is sold to Fox. Then there will be reports of people being pushed out of windows and, strangely enough, there won’t be any follow up.

It will only get worse from that point.

Republicans will never leave office and American will grow more and more inward looking, ignorant and poor.

Or there’s a civil war and we start running around murdering each other for political reasons. Ugh.