Tag: Second American Revolution

The Rise of Trumplandia — The MAGA New Right & Popular American Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just like how Putin’s initial transition of Russia into an autocracy was popular among a large swath of the Russian electorate because it promised to bring “stability,” so, too is the prospect of American autocracy very popular within the MAGA New Right.

Once you establish this, everything begins to make a lot more sense.

It’s difficult to talk to someone about politics in a liberal democracy when their personal political views are based on the goal of…destroying the liberal democracy you both currently live in. That’s why Trump remains so popular long after any other politician in a similar position would have been destroyed. He’s so out there that we lose sight that the “idea” of Trump is so popular because the “idea” the he represents is autocracy.

Or, put another way, people wanted an old fashion autocrat when they elected him in 2016 (with the help of the Russians) and, in a sense, we kind of dodged a bullet when he turned out just to be a malicious idiot. So, Trump could very well be seen as more a transitional character that the guy who gets the job done. But the thing about Trump is for all his autocratic, disruptive leanings he’s all talk — or just really lazy.

That’s why you have the situation where he telegraphed in exact detail his intentions of being an American Hitler…only not to be able to produce the goods. So center-Left people like me who screamed that Trump was an autocrat who was going to destroy America…were right. We were right given the metrics we had at the time.

What we got wrong was Trump’s actual ability to do all the things he said he wanted to do. I mean, if he was anywhere near as effective as he would have us believe he would have EASILY stolen the 2020 election, pulled out of NATO the moment he was re-elected and began to rant about how we needed a Constitutional Convention. And this would have been popular enough that absolutely nothing was done to prevent it.

Donald Trump

But, surprise, Trump is all hot air. He’s a lazy racist piece of shit who talks a good game but can’t in any way do any of the autocratic things he so desperately wants to do. This, even though he had the entire power of the Federal government at his disposal and a entire political party at his beck and call.

It takes a lot of talent to screw up your autocratic dreams with all that going for you.

And, yet, Trump managed to do just that.

The point of all of this is two fold. One, don’t get your hopes up if we figure out the direct link between Trump, “R. Congressmen” and the January 6th Insurrection. We could know for an absolute fact that Trump personally was involved in the direction of that violent event and STILL nothing would happen to him. There are just too many people who not-so-tacitly support his dream of an autocratic America — too many people inside the Republican Party wanted the goal of that particular conspiracy to be successful.

The issue is Trump is such a ding-bat that if history AGAIN gives him the power to finally transition us into an autocracy, there’s a good chance we’re going to have a civil war. He’s just too big a doofus to be able to pull it off without the Blue States, in some manner, fighting back on the field of battle.

So, Trump’s personal laziness and incompetency would be the specific reason why the civil war that so many MAGA New Right fucktards want so bad finally happens. It would probably happen at some point around the certification of Trump’s “winning” the 2024 election because a MAGA Congress nullifies Biden’s win. Good times!

Lastly, there is one huge piece of the puzzle that way, way, way too many are oblivious to — they’re so busy hating on Trump that they forget all of this bullshit is a systemic problem. Trump is just an avatar. There are probably a dozen talented Republican elected officials who are positioning themselves to be America’s Putin.

They will get into office and never leave. An entire generation — or two! of Americans will grow up with President Pompeo, or Hawley, or Cotton or Noam or DeSantis…or you name it. And, as much as it pains me to say this, the only way this will NOT happen is if the transition to autocracy is somehow bungled and we have a very tragic civil war that will pretty much cause WW3 and the potential death of billions around the globe.

So, take your pick, folks.

Autocracy or civil war. Autocracy or civil fucking war.

States Are Now The Laboratories Of Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be, the famous quip about the states was that they were the “laboratories of democracy.” Sadly, the opposite is now true — in MAGA state after state, would-be autocrats are testing out different autocratic measures in an hope of catching the attention of the MAGA faithful.

Because of the fundimental anti-democratic nature of the modern MAGA Republican Party, by definition, if you want to make a name for yourself as a would-be Republican nominee, you have to think up new and creative ways of strangling democracy on a state level. From Texas, to South Dakota to Florida, governor after governor has made it clear that their goal is to strangle American democracy in the name of “making America great again.”

And, I think, that’s the crux of what a lot of people are missing about what’s going on in the United States right now — Trump has always been nothing more than an avatar. As such, even if we magically took Trump out of the equation there are many, many men and women chomping at the bit to finish the transition to autocracy that Trump began.

So, in a sense, we’re pretty much fucked. Totally, and completely, fucked.

In fact, I would say we’re so fucked that the other option before us, civil war, might, in a sense be the better one because even though it would be a horrific tragedy, at least there would be the possibility that we would come out on the other side with a stronger democracy.

That’s kind of dark and I don’t like to think about that, but, yikes is autocracy bearing down on us.

What Are Trump, Mark Meadows & Their Merry Band Of Seditious Idiots Up To?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The core group of people who surrounded Mad King Trump fling off so much bullshit at any one moment that it’s very difficult to figure out what the fuck they’re talking about sometimes. But, just recently, former Trump COS Mark Meadows make it sound like Trump was plotting some sort of return sooner rather than later.

I struggle to figure out what’s going on.

Either it’s all bullshit meant to make Trump feel better, or they’re actively planning to take advantage of the potential instability caused by Cyber Ninjas “proving” that Trump “won” Arizona. If it’s the latter, then they’re actively stetting the stage for a national version of January 6th.

Here’s how it would go down.

Sometime soon — in August, maybe? — Cyber Ninjas comes out with a preliminary report that says Trump won Arizona. Trump spooges his pants and won’t shut the fuck up about how this PROVES he won the 2020 election, even if it’s just one state. This sets of a cascading set of events where Red State legislatures across the country decide to hold “Decertification Conventions” meant to appease the MAGA base. Of course, soon enough, because of Trump screaming at them, these conventions turn into “Nullification Conventions” and, soon enough, once they realize that you can’t really nullify the results of a presidential election — Secessionist Conventions.

Then Trump really does do the ultimate ask the elected members of his violent personality cult — are you going to join my new Trumplandia government?

That is kind of the absolute, absolute worst case scenario.

More likely, all of this bullshit would be used to as part of a greater media narrative for the 2022 mid-terms. They might tell the MAGA base to vote so Trump the “real” president could become Speaker and, as such, be put into the line of secession to cause who knows mischief.

The point is — the moment Cyber Ninjas comes out with their preliminary report, all hell might break loose. Or not. Everything is very much up in the air at this point.

Pretty much anything might happen. The key issue is, could Trump unto himself, be catalyst enough to force a secession crisis if he isn’t “re-instated.”

The New Normal: Life In The Time Of A Criminal Ex-President


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump is a cold, hard criminal. And an idiot. And very lazy. And, tragically, a still-popular ex-president. So, what are we going to do about him?

Well, there’s a pretty wide spectrum out endgames for this particular orange ding-dong. On one end, we have him finally meeting some sort of reckoning. In its most extreme, Trump would be “locked up” and we wouldn’t have to worry about him anymore.

Lulz. Then, on the OTHER end of the spectrum is reality — civil war or autocracy.

Now what.

Despite his best efforts, Trump was not able to destroy the United States. But as long as he’s got breath in his lungs and greed in his heart, he’s going to keep trying. So, I just don’t see anything ever happening to Trump, no matter what we learn about him.

We could have absolute proof that he coordinated the January 6th Insurrection with Congressional Republican leadership. We could have proof that he literally was using American foreign policy as a cash cow. The fucking list goes on. Once Mueller chocked at the behest of Barr and gave Trump a political pardon, that was it. Trump is now politically above the law. We just don’t have the political will to do anything about the fucking asshole.

America has reached a singularity of derp when it comes to dipshit Trump. The Republican Party is now a fascist, violent personality cult and there’s no going back. Because of a combination of racism, misogyny, and macro historical trends that are severely warping our politics, Trump is now something of the God King of Dune of American politics. We just don’t have any political will when it comes to him.

Look at it this way — in my personal experience, my relatives who are far more conservative than I am hate, in an abstract manner, liberal progressives so fucking much that they are prepared to let me be throw into a Trump branded ICE camp rather than form a united front with me and people like me to defeat Trumpism — even though they don’t like Trump!

The inability to get conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA to put aside abstract negative polarization long enough to destroy the cancer that is MAGA is very depressing on a political basis. It’s because of this that we continue to careen towards civil war or autocracy.

Those are our choices by no later than January 2025: autocracy or civil war.

MAGA has gone septic. Our political system is warped. The country is far more unstable than Twitter liberals are willing to admit

What’s the endgame? I dunno.

You tell me.

American Politics Is Dead


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, American Twitter Liberals are oblivious to how dire things are on a practical level political in the United States. Traditional politics have collapsed.

Politically, I’m the only center-Left person in my immediate family and it’s now officially impossible for me to talk politics with my far more conservative siblings. They either freak out on me or they are so consumed with recursive thinking brought on by negative polarization that it’s a moot point.

This is not great!

The fact that America is now so divided by partisan politics that you can’t have just a casual conversation about politics with people you disagree with means we’re a lot further down the road to the existential choice of civil war or autocracy than Twitter liberals would have us believe.

People are beginning to make fun of me for how much I talk about this, but I don’t know what I can do — all the metrics definitely indicate to me that that existential choice is hurtling towards us at an alarming rate. If it doesn’t happen it will be because of something that no one — not even I — can predict.

I think some of all of this stems from some people simply can’t process the concept that the United States is either going to transition into a Russian style autocracy or have a civil war. They’re so busy living their lives and raising their kids that the idea that something so dramatic would happen is just not something they can process.

Virginia’s January 2025 Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Virginia is really two states, at least. You have the high density, liberal crescent that starts in NOVA, goes through Richmond and ends in Hampton Roads — and everywhere else. The “everywhere else” is extremely fucking conservative to the point that should the opportunity come, its population will warmly embrace whatever autocratic rule may arrive.

As such, Virginia even more unstable than the greater United States. We also have a off-year election coming up and it’s very easy to see the little Trumpkin who wants to be governor winning. This would set up a situation where should the United States buckle in the fall of 2024 because of a severe political crisis surrounding the 2024 election that Virginia is going to collapse.

This touches on something that is not very obvious at the moment. Because of the precedent set by the first Civil War, we all assume it will be conservatives that force the issue and (attempt to) leave the Union. But this are spinning out of control so badly — and Republican MAGA New Right people are so fucking politically bloodthirsty — that it’s also possible that they’re going to sucker punch Blue States.

And it’s Blue States that attempt to leave the Union, not Red States.

I mention this because it’s easy to see Virginia’s MAGA New Right governor going all-in with the Congressional nullification of a Biden re-election and the urban centers of Virginia — including the capital of Richmond — having none of it and overthrowing the state government in support of the rightful winner of the election Biden.

I’m making the assumption, obviously, that Biden wins outright and it’s nullification we have to worry about it. It could be that we don’t get that far because Republicans simply make it so fucking difficult to vote that no Democrat ever wins election again.

Anyway!

The point is — don’t sleep on Republicans “catching the car” of transitioning us into a Russian-style autocracy, only to bungle the “last mile” and it’s Blue States that bounce. And states like Virginia collapse altogether when the more populace Blue portions of the state revolt against the MAGA New Right govenor.

He hasn’t won yet, but I think he has a very good shot of winning for no other reason than any functioning liberal democracy has an ebb and flow to it. It’s inevitable that a fascist MAGA New Right candidate is going to win.

Now, I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what’s going to happen. I’m just using the available metrics I have around me, then extrapolating from them to sketch out what might happen in a few years. I will note that it’s possible that it could be either now, because of the Cyber Ninjas clusterfuck or 2022 -2023 because we can’t handle the passions of even a mid-term election that all my dystopian hellscapes happen.

Who knows. All I know is, thing’s are great right now when it comes to our liberal democracy.

America On The Brink: Our Dangerous Modern Political Dynamic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The conditions exist for something dramatic to happen in the United States, all that is missing is some sort of catalyst. Autocracy is very popular with the MAGA New Right Republican base, to the point that if some unexpected event happens the country could face a serious secession crisis almost totally out of the blue.

When people on the right think of the term “liberal” as so loaded that they can’t bare to even say it in the context of “liberal democracy” — you got a problem. Also, when your standard bedrock conservatives — usually the foundation of any stable liberal democracy — are all-in with fascist talking points, you got a problem.

Most of the American Right is so consumed with “owning the libs” and negative polarization that their first reaction to the most egregious excesses of the fascist MAGA New Right is to say, “Sounds good to me.” We’ve reached a point where the country is so absolutely divided that should something put unexpected added pressure on our political system who the fuck knows what will happen.

In other words, the United States is a powder keg waiting for someone to drop a match.

Near term, there are two things I can think of that would be that match — Cyber Ninjas giving Trump the “win” in Arizona he craves. Meanwhile, if there was some sort of organized terrorist attack (by either side) that would also be enough to cause some sort of severe political crisis. I’m not prepared to say we’ll have some sort of good old boy MAGA New Right “revolution” that people keep searching for and ending up at this blog, but it’s possible some sort of secession crisis MIGHT Happen.

Longer term, I’m beginning to think that the country is so fucking fragile on a political basis that it could be the passions of the 2022 mid-terms that are enough to cause a secession crisis. Things really are that dire. But we’re definitely going to face a severe political crisis of some sort in late 2024 to early 2025.

The only we avoid it is if something REALLY FUCKING BIG happens between now and then. Otherwise, we’re fucked.

‘Is America Going To Have A Civil War?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok. Take a deep breath. If you’ve searched for this topic and found yourself here you’re in the right place. I’ve been writing on this topic extensively for months now. But here’s what I think is the answer to your question.

A Second American Civil War is actually one end of a spectrum of fates America faces between now and January 2025 — the other being a MAGA New Right autocracy. It’s possible you’re just so angry with “libtards” that you want a civil war RIGHT NOW. It’s possible — not probable — that you will get your wish sooner rather than later.

If it’s going to happen in months and not years, then either Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” in Arizona and that sets off a chain reaction that leads to a secession crisis, or things get really dark really quick and an important political figure decides to drop dead one way or another and THAT leads to a secession crisis that leads to a civil war. All the hope of some sort of populist MAGA New Right “revolution” RIGHT NOW seems a bit dubious.

You probably want a very simple answer to the real question, of: when do you get to murder people in cold blood for their political views?

I honestly don’t know, my deranged MAGA New Right reader. You’re going to need a catalyst. All the conditions are there, but for there to be a civil war in the United States, something’s gotta give.

I understand why you think that at any moment good old boys are going to murder liberals en mass, but I would be shocked if it happened anytime soon. You need organization and some sort of military for a modern civil war to take place.

So, you’re best best is probably late 2024- early 2025.

THEN you get your civil war (if you don’t get your MAGA New Right autocracy.)

As such, just cool it. We’re not going to have a civil war…just yet.

The Audacity Of The Coming American Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is a lot going on in American politics that seems comical if you’re a Twitter liberal so wrapped up in closing on a Brooklyn walk-up that you don’t have time to take process what’s going on.

But it’s not comical if you realize this: the prospect of autocracy is popular within the MAGA New Right.

Once you establish that for a sizable portion of the electorate the center-Left’s nightmare is their dream then, well, a lot things that seem absurd and comical make a lot of sense.

The MAGA New Right Republicans have political bloodlust at this point. They want to destroy the America we assume we’ll always have and replace it with one of “blood and soil” where people like me get pushed out a window if we refuse to shut up about what a fucking cocksucker President Pompeo is. (This is just a running gag! No griping about me being obsessed with this prospect!)

As such, this is another metric to have rolling around in your head as we continue to march towards January 2025. The next presidential election cycle is shaping up to be the most significant since 1860. It would have been 2020 but for Trump being a lazy idiot and COVID19. Because of those two factors, we managed to punt the civil war or autocracy choice for America down the road four years.

That is, of course, unless Cyber Ninjas manage to start a civil war when they “prove” Trump “won” Arizona.

I guess it’s still possible that we’ll punt this particular problem down the road AGAIN. We did it in 2020, so it’s possible something I just can’t predict will so jiggle the general trends we face that my dystopian hellscape won’t happen. But it would have to be something big, big. Like China invading Taiwan or a regional war in Northeast Asia when the DPRK freaks out for some reason.

Otherwise, buckle up.

The Stage Is Set (For Autocracy Or Civil War)



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The stage is now set for a very dramatic existential choice of autocracy or civil war. The signs of this impending crisis are everywhere. One of the biggest of these signs is that the Republican Party is now a violent personality cult. As such, since it usually takes no more than 5% of a nation’s population to effect a revolution — we’re in a serious crisis going forward!

“Not great Bob,” as they say on Mad Men.

As I keep saying, if I was smart enough to give you some sort of simple explanation as to what to do to prepare for this existential choice I would be writing for VOX not a blog.

All I know is, at some point in the future, probably around January 2025, the United States is either going to become an old fashion autocracy or we’re going to have a very modern civil war.

That’s it. Those are are only choices.

Again — the Republican Party is now a radical, violent personality cult on a systemic level. So, either they get their way and turn us into a nation of “blood and soil” that is under the perpetual minority control of white Christians, or we have a civil war to sort things out, may best the ideology win.

I have no advice for you after painting this pretty dystopian future for us. Just keep your powder dry, I guess? Get a passport? Just don’t sleep how dangerous our future is. No longer will being a “fierce resister” on Twitter mean shit when ICE is knocking heads of anti-MAGA people in the real fucking world.

The only advice is do have is to enjoy these few remaining years of peace and quiet before the Fourth Turning blowing everything up in a ways not seen since WW2.

Good luck