Tag: Second American Revolution

American Nobody


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear from the beginning that I’m a nobody. I’m an anonymous rando. I could literally drop off the face of the earth at this point and my absence wouldn’t be noticed by anyone outside of my immediate family.

And, yet, I often say that if the apocalypse happened, I’d either be the first person to die or the person who brought back civilization. Well, I hate to break it to you, but we’re on the precipice of a fucking political apocalypse. The reason why I say this is TrumpBarr — even in the face of a landslide at the polls — will never, ever, EVER FUCKING LEAVE OFFICE.

So, therein lies the makings of a historic clusterfuck.

I hope I’m wrong. I really do hope I’m wrong. And, really, it’s not like I have any credibility to lose if I am. But there’s a greater-than-zero-sum chance that not only will the United States implode in a matter of months, I’m going to be driven from my home because of my politics.

I’m going to become just another of the thousands of Blue citizens in Red areas that have to flee in the wake of political violence. If that tragically does happen to me, I’m heading north to NYC. I often say if could crash on a couch in NYC in a home with access to the subway system that within six months I’d be a minor celebrity in the city.

Throw me into what would be, essentially, revolutionary NYC, and I’d have a pretty good chance of finding myself in some rather surreal situations for no other reason than I have the skillset of someone who thrives in the chaos of a country on the brink. I’m good at abstract thought. I’m good in a crisis. And I’m good at the strategic thought associated with mapping out scenarios.

Let me be very clear — I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But if things have gotten so bad that I’m driven from my home because I’m a libtard, well, my fate my be foisted upon me. You can’t be a hero unless fate gives you the opportunity to be one.

But, again, all that sounds “delusional and stupid.” And it is. And, yet, I also know that about 90% of the people who should take the lead in such a situation don’t because they’re scared of the risk associated with such a dramatic situation or they have too much to lose.

I really hope I can just finish this novel I’m working on. That’s all I want. I have no desire to do anything but that at this point. But I’m not going to sit on my hands if The Big Ugly comes. I’m going to do something, anything to make the lives of my fellow Americans better.

I just want the liberal democracy of my youth back. That’s all I want.

TrumpBarr’s Coming ‘Political 9/11’ Strike


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The biggest historical catastrophes happen when, given the available information, something happens and things don’t work out the way they were expected to. Contrary to “The Guns of August,” the European powers wanted war in 1914 because, for lack of a better phrase, thought it would be “cool.”

So, here we are in October 2020 and TrumpBarr is laying in wait to strike at some point between now and whenever it becomes apparent that Trump may not win outright. (I still think he will because the Russians are going to directly fuck with our election systems, but, lulz.)

Using the full power of the U.S.. Government, TrumpBarr will, essentially, attempt a coup. The more difficult it is for them to simply using media messaging control to steal the election after the fact, the more radical they will become. Their ultimate fall-back is, of course, a 5-4 or 6-3 victory at SCOTUS.

This is where things get tricky.

If, on a political level, Biden wins in a landslide and TrumpBarr STILL try to steal the election, then, well, we got a problem. But, then again, do we? Are people really prepared to risk what’s important to them in the real world to force TrumpBarr out of power?

I honestly don’t think so.

The only thing that would force #MoscowMitch to be Barry Goldwater 1974 would be if a General Strike crashed the American economy to such an extent that out of absolute sheer desperation he felt he was forced to do so. He would have to think the very existence of the Republican Party was at stake to do such a thing. Otherwise, lulz. Those young hack MAGA judges aren’t going to appoint themselves, now are they?

So, it seems to me that America 2021 is going to look identical to Belarus 2021 — at least on a political level. Americans would have to fuck some shit up on a pretty near-revolutionary level for the Republicans not to simply clutch Trump tighter in the face of any prospective crisis.

And I just don’t see that happening.

As such, the bad guys have won. The Republic has fallen. We’re already Putin’s America. I’m going to get either pushed out a window or snatched off the street within 18 months by some ICE goon because of all my ranting online about Mad King Trump I’s tyranny.

Oh well. Fuck those guys.

The Big Ugly: American Balkanization, Canada & Reshaping North America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate it when I accidently slip into giving our dystopian future some sort of all’s well that ends well narrative like some sort of sanguin liberal-progressive Turner Diaries. With the Turner Diaries it was — as I understand it — a far Right fever dream that involved a race war.

With my narrative, it’s The Big Ugly happens but in the end, my liberal-progressive dreams come true because we found a new nation based on the ideals of California.

But that’s really me stroking one out to something that may not happen.

It may be that when The Big Ugly happens, the United States — if it doesn’t become a full-blown autocracy — simply implodes. A form of balkanization happens in the US. And that’s it. There’s no more United States. California successfully leaves the Union and the rest of the Blue States are under the MAGA-Federal jackboot via the Insurrection Act.

And that will be that.

I guess the point of that is The Big Ugly is going to suck should it happen.

Another thing is — if The Big Ugly happens, I just don’t see any way Canada doesn’t get drawn into it. And it won’t be some sort of liberal-progressive circle jerk where Blue States form the United States of Canada with Canada, either. Things may get violent. Canadian worst nightmares about Americans coming after their “resources” may come true.

Or, at least, the entire political map of North American may change in a rather sudden, dramatic fashion. Some sort of force-union between some Blue States and Canada might happen. Or MAGA-USA invades Canada because it meddles in TrumpBarr’s attempts to turn us into Putin’s America.

What I’m saying is — the next four months could really, really fucking suck. A lot of people may die tragic, needless deaths simply because fucking Trump is a demagogic moron who is afraid to go to jail.

I just want a liberal democracy. That should not be so controversal.

The Glorious American Revolution Of 2021



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m reading the big, new U.S. Grant biography and it’s really good. It’s extremely timely on a number of levels. It definitely feels like Something Big is about to happen in the United States just like in the late 1850s for no other reason than two absolutes are careening towards each other — Barr is never going to let Trump lose and it definitely looks as though (at the moment) that’s exactly what’s going to happen to Trump on a political level.

So, that’s the setup for Something Big in what is, in real terms, a matter of days.If there is some sort of Soviet Union August 1991 event in the United States, it’s likely to happen because of some sort of extra-political 9/11 event. Or, put another way, some sort of miscalculation on the part of Barr. It might not even be a miscalculation — given what he has available, the idea that through sheer media manipulation and fucking with the law and norms that he really can hand Mad King Trump his ill-gotten second term.

The reason why things might blow up in TrumpBarr’s face is the average person sees what’s going on for what it is — a coup — then all bets are off. And, as I keep saying, the key type of person to think about it the “conservative-but-not-MAGA” person. If you can somehow, someway, get them to stop thinking about “cancel culture” long enough to notice the fucking coup going on around them, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to stop it.

If that type of person joins with the traditional center-Left opposition to Trump, the whole country comes to a grinding halt. At that point, either there’s a civil war, a revolution or both. The conservative-but-not-MAGA person is pretty much the bedrock of the American political system. If they feel TrumpBarr has forced the issue and they’ve lost “The Mandate of Heaven” then the United States — in its present form — could very well go the way of the Soviet Union in late 1991.

One way of doing it.

I’m not joking.

Let’s layout why this is. The big thing that’s different about the United States in 2020 and the Soviet Union in 1991 is economic — the United States’ fundamentals are fine. What we have is a fucking insane political problem where fucking fascists like TrumpBarr use the resentment of rural areas to tell secular metropolitan areas what to do.

The most surreal aspect of all of this — at least to me — is fucking cocksucker MAGA people hating on the media. Oh, come on you shitheads. You fucking morons. You keep talking about “cancel culture” when such a culture didn’t exactly stop Trump from becoming president, now did it?

I still think if you’re a MAGA fucktard you’re a fucking idiot if you want a civil war. You. Are. A. Fucking. Moron. You’re getting everything through what’s left of politics. Why would you want to turn things existential and risk turing those soyboys you think so little of into Rambo?

Who will play the part of these guys?

What one might compare the coming instability in the United States to is England’s Glorious Revolution. Their ruler lost the Mandate of Heaven, so he was replaced. So, in a sense, any “revolution” in the United States would be a personal revolt against TrumpBarr.

I really hate that my fucking novel may become moot if any of my dire predictions become a reality. I really like this novel. It’s a really great idea. I am also unhappy that given my personal skillset and my natural inclination to race towards danger, not away from it, that fate my put me in some pretty surreal situations sooner rather than later.

Though, with my luck, I’ll probably get murdered by some crazed MAGA person on the first day of an revolution or civil war. Ugh.

Our Coming Political 9/11


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the purposes of the media is to help construct reality. They make it so there’s an ebb and flow to life. It’s when something so jarring, so astonishing happens that they can’t do their job of making us just accept things that you have a crisis on your hands.

Two things are true right now: Biden is doing well politically. Trump is going to use extra-political means to “win” the election.

So, as such, the question is — are we careening towards a “political 9/11” in which CNN’s Anderson Cooper has to look at us and say, “For the first, time, the United States is in the midst of an attempted coup.”

It will really get that bad. Trump and Barr are going to try to steal the election through extra-political means post election no matter what. Even if Biden somehow wins the popular vote by a landslide, Barr is going to use the full weight of the United States to prevent Biden from actually taking office.

If you throw in batshit insane MAGA-Qanon people running around blowing shit up and murdering people in cold blood for political reasons, well, you got the beginning of a civil war or a revolution. Something bad, to say the least.

So, I would suggest you buckle up. Get ready like you did for COVID19. We’re either going to turn into a Russian-style managed democracy or there’s going to be a civil war – revolution. There’s no middle ground, tragically.

American Implosion 2021: Is Texas ‘American’ or ‘Southern’ or ‘Texan?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we careen towards a possible implosion –> revolution — > civil war type scenario here in the United States, I find myself wondering about Texas. The thing about Texas is it’s something of a trans-purple state. It’s not there yet, but it’s working on it.

So, it’s possible if the country goes tits up on a national level that Texas as a polity will also collapse as the it can’t figure out if its the Texas of Ted Cruz or Beto O’Rourke. Or, it might be something like Kansas right before the civil war – it’s both and only through the force of arms does it figure it out.

Texas has a tradition of both being an independent republic and a part of the CSA.So, it’s possible it might just bounce altogether and take a wait-and-see approach if the Federal government collapses in some way. As I keep saying, if the United States imploded, there would be, maybe, five polities that would find themselves with a lot more power than they ever otherwise would.

But Texas is a crucial player in any revolutionary America. It’s a lot easy to put the Union back together if you have both Texas and California on your side to do it.

And, yet, maybe this is just me being hysterical. It’s very possible. I hope I’m wrong. I hope we punt all this down the political history road for another four years.

How The United States Implodes


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States, much like France before the 1789 revolution, dominates global politics. And, yet, the only thing that holds it all together is a shared idea of what it means to be American –and maybe the U.S. Military.

I propose that even if Biden decisively wins in November, that Barr is going to try to steal the election anyway, because, lulz. As such, my scenario of Red States absolutely thinking Trump is president and Blue States absolutely thinking Biden is president will happen and the whole rotting structure will collapse rather abruptly.

I still think it might not be a civil war we have to worry about, but a fucking revolution. I say this because no institution will escape unchanged. The Civil War was, in a sense, a revolution — for the South — but it actually made a lot of institutions far, far stronger. There’s a reason why Lincoln went from calling the United States “these United States” in 1861 to “the United States” in 1865.

But if the whole thing goes tits up, we really need to look at California. California simply leaving the Union is not only a massive self-own, it’s also a huge fucking cop-out. Why leave the Union to tyranny, when you could join up with other Blue States and re-imagine the whole thing? Only California has the population and economy to be a political cornerstone to a Renew American Covenant.

I guess the point of all of this is I’m a traditional Unionist by nature and I want to save the Union rather than give up. It’s just if my choice is between tyranny and the riskier (and more destructive) implosion, I want to at least want to know where California stands in all of this. I love America and simply want “a more perfect Union.”

As I keep saying, I’m being so hysterical for no other reason than it at least makes my fears concreate. I refuse to live under the tyranny of abstract fears and uncertainties.

But I do think we have to take the idea that the United States — the most powerful, most stable nation in the world — maybe isn’t so stable after all. We could actually have something akin to a revolution. If we’re lucky, it’ll be a Glorious Revolution.

If we’re not, well, glup.

How Blue States Could Win A Second American Civil War / Revolution

Excuse the hostage letter level technology.


By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am growing very irritated with fucking Proud Boys and Boogaloos stroking one out to the idea of a second civil war or revolution. So the above is my attempt to prove a point — if they face an existential threat, Blue States have a lot going for them.

Be Careful What You Wish For, Putin


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As the Russians can attest, sometimes wishing existential ill-will on your geopolitical foes can come back to bite you in the ass. The Germans sent Lenin to Russia in a sealed train at the advent of the Russian Revolution and their plan of knocking the Russians out of WW1 worked like a charm.

At least in the short term.

So, the argument could be made that Putin might get his short-term geopolitical goes should Trump cause the United States to collapse into civil war or revolution, long term, well, is a different story.

But, really, I think such speculation says more about my personal hopes for this impending clusterfuck. It’s very possible that we’ll just slip into autocracy, ally with Russia and that will be that. That definitely seems to be our fate as of right now.

Trump is never, ever leaving office for any reason. If we let him win using soft power post-election, then, well, I guess we deserve the fate we get.

Things Don’t Happen In A Vacuum


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the reasons why I feel the United States is careening towards an implosion is the Republicans are making a number of significant political misjudgements. They are acting as though their numerous provocative actions are happening in a political vacuum.

They seem to think that if they get their wish of overturning the ACA and Roe V. Wade that there won’t be any political consequences for them. Or, if there is, so what, fuck you.

So, either we turn into an autocracy or, more likely, we implode.

What I mean by this is, the United States will become so divided into Red and Blue that some sort of major violence will break out across the country. This will probably happen after many, many people become domestic political refugees as the two sides consolidate. Then some sort of Fort Sumter happens and a way we go.

It sounds really, really bonkers now. And maybe it is. I would like to make my abstract fears about the future concrete so they’re easier to manage, however. But it will be interesting to see if the “red line” for conservative-but-not-MAGA people is Trump staging a real-life coup. That will be interesting.

If you take my theory that Trump is “Gorbachev in reverse,” then, well, we’re fucked.