A Continued Sense Of Unease

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continued to have a sense of unease about this fall and winter. I know I’ve been writing for years about this moment in time, but that doesn’t make it any easier to process.

It definitely seems as though this maybe be it. We’re going to find out, one way or another, if the USA is going to collapse in to civil war and / or revolution because of Trump or if his election in 2016 was something of a fluke and the high water mark of fascism in the country.

I just don’t know the answer at the moment, which is the source of all of my unease. I can already see it in my mind — Trump loses, demands a National Divorce and my state, Virginia, collapses into an intra-state civil war. I have to leave my home and, before you know it, I’m living in a refugee camp in up state New York or something.

Ugh.

Or, alternately, Trump *wins* and things get so bad that I have to figure out a way to get out of the country. This is a bit tricker because, well, I have no money. But maybe there will develop some sort of “Underground Railroad” for Blues who need to get out of the country or something.

Something like that.

I just don’t know. The whole thing puts me on edge. But, I suppose, we will all learn soon enough one way or another.

I Don’t Know What To Tell You About The 2024 Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing about the 2024 election is, because of the Electoral College, the fact that we have a collection of anti-MAGA interest groups going against a fascist party is hidden. As such, I just don’t know what to tell you — if Trump wins, this could be it — American democracy as we know it could be over.

Now, of course, MAGA shitheads will say I suffer from “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” The reason this is so dumb is “TDS” is more about hand waving on the part of MAGA cocksuckers than it is about having an honest political debate about anything.

Anyway, the point is — if Trump wins the key issue is how bad things might get. If Trump “autocrat-lite” like Orban in Hungary, then he can found an autocratic state in the United States pretty easily. We won’t have free and fair elections anymore — but we will have elections.

The fear is, of course, that Trump is so stupid that he will attempt to end elections all together — then we have a problem. A big problem. I just don’t see the American populace accepting something so dictatorial. There’s one thing for such tyrannical behavior to be abstract and yet another for to actually happen in the concrete.

So, I just don’t know. It will be interesting to see what happens. I hope Trump loses, but we have to prepare for him to win.

We’re Not Taking Trump’s Ranting About Deporting 20 Million People Serious Enough

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even though Kamala Harris is beginning to look like she might win, I’m still very uneasy about the consequences of a Trump victory. We have to take seriously the idea that Trump may very well make good on his vow to deport 20 million people.

I talk to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and they seem either eager for the deportations to begin or simply blasé and non-committal about it all. They wave their hands and mutter something about “both sides.”

Anyway, if Trump does somehow win, I still am uneasy that he may go “full tyrant” and, as such, somehow be deposed. I have no idea how such a thing would happen, but if he really did go full tyrant…some pretty shocking and historic things could happen one way or another.

I don’t want such things to happen, but I like to think in the macro and it seems if Trump tried to deport 20 million people overnight someone, somewhere in the United States might take notice of such a shocking thing.

But, who knows. No one listens to me. And they probably shouldn’t.

The Autumn of Our Discontent

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue for me at the moment is, if Trump loses, will he demand a National Divorce and will people listen to him if he does. I think, on a state basis, Texas really would agree to leaving the Union.

That will cause the country to buckle.

Now, obvious, Trump could win and then, lulz, we have to deal with him going full tyrant. But, I dunno. If he loses, we’re so close to the country buckling already that it seems like if Trump starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce that it might really happen.

Then I have to figure out what the fuck I’m going to do. I still think my best is to head North, once some sort of infrastructure for domestic political refugees has been built out.

Watch Me Be Paranoid: ‘Live Free or Die Hard’ & Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I’m prone to “magical thinking.” That is, thinking that really doesn’t have much connection to reality. It’s the type of weird thinking that caused people to think that they could cure COVID by….drinking bleach?

But given improvements in AI video technology, I have an unease about what might happen in the near, near future. The plot of Live Free or Die Hard revolves around some huge terrorist attack being faked via the use of deep fake technology (or something.)

I just worry…what if something like that happened as part of us careening towards civil war / revolution in late 2024, early 2025? I worry.

Is It Possible That People Are … Listening To Me?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Generally, absolutely no one listens to me. I live in oblivion. But I have been ranting and ranting and ranting AND RANTING for years now that late 2024, early 2025 could be a Holy Shit moment in our nation’s history.

I only mention this because someone in Milwaukee*, where the RNC took place recently, looked at what of my hysterical posts from late 2020 where I had all these crazy ideas as to how Trump could stay in power. None of them, I will note, mentioned anything about him inciting an insurrection, natch.

But it does make me wonder — given how fucking much I’ve ranted about the possibility of a civil war / revolution….is it possible someone, somewhere is actually now, at last paying attention to me?

If they are, I don’t quite know what to make of such a thing. It would be totally out of the ordinary for my living-in-oblivion life. I have also caught the attention of someone who was apparently in the NYC area and now is in the DC area.

That would usually make me ecstatic — someone of note gives a shit about me! — but I’m also worried that he / she is an FBI or Secret Service agent worried I’m going to freak out and hurt someone. UGH. I hate that. I hate the idea that just because I’m a kook and have strong opinions about politics I have to worry that I’m on some sort of fucking watch list.

I’m totally, completely fucking harmless. Totally. I hate guns. I hate conflict. I am, I will admit, a kook. But that’s it. I really, really, REALY fucking hate guns.

Let’s see if anyone listens to me about that part.

*I doubled checked – it was Waunakee. Ooopse.

I’m Severely Worried

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No matter what happens this fall, there is a real risk of domestic political violence in the United States at a level not seen since the end of the Civil War. There is a non-zero chance that the most powerful nation the world has ever seen could buckle because of some pretty dumb shit.

What’s worse, the state I live in — Virginia — is two states, one Red, one Blue, fused together who hate each other. So if the absolute worst happens, there’s a good chance that I will become a domestic political refugee.

I wish I was joking, but I’m not. I could literally have to make good on all my quips about “heading North.” And I’m sure — sure — that somehow I’m going to endup in some sort of waystation in Maryland before I being shipped to a bigger refugee camp somewhere like upstate New York or maybe Maine.

But we have to start to buckle down and game out, on a personal basis, what the fuck we’re going to do should the absolute worst happen. I’m not smart enough to tell you what you should do, but I can tell you that you need to take all of this seriously.

We could be seriously f u c k e d no matter what happens. If Trump wins, he could go full tyrant and be deposed, which would cause a civil war when Red States leave the Union. If he loses, he could demand a National Divorce and…civil war.

But I am known for magical (over) thinking and so…maybe nothing will happen? Maybe Project 2025 will happen, about 1 million smug Twitter liberals will leave the country….and that’s it? About 20 million people will be put into camps, God-only-knows-what will happen to them and it will be just a Big Meh?

I just don’t know what is going to happen. No one does. But I would definitely accept that This Could Be It.

What A Strange Turn Of Events

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What the fuck is going on with Jason Calacanis? He is far more wealthy and successful than I will ever be, but recently he’s become a uhhh….beta? A mid? When it comes to his politics.

He’s all-in (pardon the pun) with Trump and I can only assume he’s doing so at the behest of his best-bud Elon Musk. It seems very…beta of him. Have some self-respect, man.

But here we are, with @Jason on Twitter sucking Trump’s political cock — and urging everyone else to do the same thing in a very conspicuous way. Industrialists are never wrong, are they? ARE THEY?

Industrialists have never, ever picked a candidate for short term gain that ultimately destroyed everything….have they? HAVE THEY?

We Need A Brokered Democratic Convention

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea what’s going on with Biden, but all things being equal, he should drop out of the race and let an open, brokered Democratic convention take place. Then all this weird angst going on within the highest ranks of the party can have some catharsis.

The goal would be, of course, that after all the yelling — and amazing TV — that the party would be far more united against Trump and the forces of tyranny and fascism that he leads. But, I don’t know what to tell you. I’m getting a strong 1872 American election mixed with 1933 Germany election vibe with this current election.

Biden is so old, it’s very, very easy to imagine him shuffling off this mortal coil at, like, the absolute worst moment — which would be any time after election day. But I’m known to be really paranoid about such things. And I am prone to magical thinking.

So, I dunno. I do think that Biden has lost the collective Mandate of Heaven when it comes to the leadership of the Democratic Party and, as such, he should step aside, even if he continues to have a lot of support with the base. I’m kind of indifferent.

I still support Biden and think he can win, but, it definitely seems as though that’s kind of moot at this point. The momentum is there for him to drop out and, well, there you go.

The Nuts & Bolts Of Collapse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still can’t game out what is going with the United States at the moment, it makes you think about the nuts-and-bolts of collapse. There is a great book that goes into this some by David French called Divided We Fall.

But let’s talk about other things — if things actually got as bad as I fear, how would we distinguish between Blue forces and Red Forces? We both can’t use Old Glory.

A would, of course, depend on what specific nature of the division would be. My fear, of course, is that Trump wins, gets deposed then the country collapses because Reds freak out and their states begin to leave the Union.

That’s the fear.

But we’ll see. It will be interesting to see if someone comes up with a flag Blue forces to use. I think the Reds will either use an all-red flag, or maybe one with some sort of stylized lion on it. It will be interesting to see — if such a dystopian thing happens — if the Reds call themselves Trumplandia during the middle of the catastrophe.

I really, really, REALLY don’t want ANY of my dystopian hellscape fears to come true. But I can’t help myself. I keep worrying about how, exactly, the USA might collapse.