Tag: United Kingdom

How America Would React To Our Best Geopolitical Bud Great Britain Collapsing


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Americans think of Great Britain as our far older, posh relative that swings by every once in a while to hand out Fleabag DVDs. The United States is so big that we only have a hazy understanding of the outside world. Canada, cold. Mexico, hot. Great Britain — King George III was an asshole, Churchill was cool.

I’m not in any way suggesting I have any bead on the slow-motion collapse of Great Britain, but anyone paying attention to the goings on there will have to admit that the United Kingdom of 2021 has a very 1918 Austro-Hungarian vibe to it.

Or, to put a more fine point on it, a closer historical approximation might be Czechoslovakia. The two nations that made up that multi-ethnic state just gave up and split because they no longer had the energy to stay together.

The same thing with Great Britain, in that it definitely seems as though the very concept of being “British” is beginning to evaporate. Just look at how worked up the English got when they faced Italy on the football pitch recently. The English team didn’t go into that sports battle as British, they went into it as English.

This leads to the question, “How would America react if Great Britain finally buckled and ceased to exist?”

Well, ironically the United States is, uh, going through somethings right now itself. The United States is suffering a similar disunity momentum as Great Britain is. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say at some point between now and when the US is likely to go tits up (2024-2025) the UK beats us to it.

First, there would be earth shattering shock that the Union Jack was no longer applicable. The idea that once the Scots bounce out of the UK that the Union Jack would be moot would be something the poor old American brain could not comprehend. It’s a simple thing to grasp and a lot of people who don’t care about geopolitics would gasp.

Then, as the whole country pealed away with the departure of Wales and the unification of Ireland, Americans would start to make comparisons to the other big collapse of the last century — the Soviet Union.

But the dissolution of the UK would be one of those rare occasions when the United States would sit up and take notice that there was an Outside World beyond our boarders. Comparisons would also, likely be make to the shock of the 1940 Fall of France.

There would even be a bit of a question as to how difficult it would be to make the rump state of England a US state. (This would happen in some of the more bonkers portions of MAGA because, well, white people.)

We just would not be able to process any of it at first.

Until, of course, we had our own civil war and then everyone would say, “Fuck, both major Anglophone nations collapsed within years of each other.”

The Anglophone Crisis Of The 21 Century


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The Roman Empire had its Crisis of The Third Century and it appears as though the Anglophone world has it’s own political crisis in the 21 Century. Three of the five major English speaking democracies currently have very fucked up political systems. Two out of the five — the United States and Great Britain — definitely seem to be careening towards some sot of potential breakup.

If I was smarter — and, maybe, wrote for Vox or Foreign Affairs — I could give you a lengthy explanation of why this is the case. But I’m just some hayseed rube in the rural part of a flyover state, so lulz, I don’t know. I have no idea what is wrong with Australia, but I do have some sense of what’s wrong with the UK and especially the US.

The UK’s problem seems just as existential as the problems the United States faces. The UK is pretty much the lone multi-ethnic state in Europe and it current has a very late Austro-Hungarian Empire vibe to it. It’s very easy to imagine the country breaking up into its constituent states and that will be that.

The US, meanwhile, is a bit more complicated. The US has the choice of autocracy or civil war before it and we just haven’t gotten to the point in that particular process where I can game out which one is going to happen. I have the general sense that the US is going to drift peacefully into some sort of “lite touch” autocracy until we elect an autocrat who is a bit too power hungry for their own good and then we either have a popular revolt or things get really, really dark.

Anyway, the point is — outside of New Zealand and Canada, the entire Anglophone world is in far more turmoil than one might think. The English speaking world is in a simmering, long-term political crisis with no ready solution.

The US and the UK, specifically, are in serious trouble. All I can say is the next few years may be far, far more dramatic on a geopolitical level than we could possibly imagine.

The Crisis Of Anglo-America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love worst case scenarios because at least, then, I can prepare myself for the worst in some sort of concrete fashion. To me, the worst fear is an abstract fear because you don’t even know what you’re really afraid of.

Anyway, the conditions are there, at least for the two leading English speaking nations to completely implode this winter. The United States could implode if TrumpBarr attempts some sort of Very American Coup. The United Kingdom could implode if Hard Brexit happens on January 1st and it’s such a clusterfuck that Scotland bounces because it wants to remain a part of the EU.

I’m only dealing in conditions. It’s very possible that in the United States either Biden wins in a landslide or if Trump does win all that happens is there are a lot of angry Twitter threads and Tik-Tok videos from Claudia Conway. Otherwise, it’s a lulz. With the UK, it could be as an American I have no idea what I’m talking about and you should just, as always, ignore me with extreme prejudice.

The only reason why I think this worse case scenario is even possible is the United States and the United Kingdom have a tendency to follow each other politically on a macro level. This has happened to an eerie extent from when Margaret Thatcher won in the UK which was a prelude to the Reagan Revolution to the modern day. Who is Boris Johnson but just would-be British Donald Trump? In fact, the rise of Trump and the whole Brexit clusterfuck happened at just about the same time for similar reasons.

So, it would make sense that both those shit shows would wrap up at just about the same time, as well. Though, in the United States, if what I call “The Big Ugly” happens this fall-winter, it would be just the beginning of our problems, not the end of it.

No matter what, the Winter of 2020 is going to be a massive crisis for both the United States and the United Kingdom with no obvious endgame. We could possibly see a civil war / revolution in the United States and the simple dissolution of Europe’s last multi-ethnic state within days of each other. It could really get that deep.

One thing we all need to remember is in times of great upheaval things really don’t go in a straight line. There will be battles won and lost. Mistakes will be made for dumb reasons. And it may repeatedly look as though the forces of tyranny will win.

But in the United States, at least, I’m of the opinion that should the fucking fucktard MAGA-Qanon shitheads get their “civil war” they’re so eager to have, that the Blue States just might make them regret that wish. Or not. There’s no obvious endgame.

All I know is things are going to be lit.