Category: Cold Civil War

People Continue To Think We’re Going To Have Another Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If my Webstats are any indication, a lot of people have come to believe that the United States is ripe for another civil war. At the moment, I lean towards believing this is not the case, especially if Ron DeSantis — or someone like him — is the Republican nominee.

But as long as Trump is a viable political force, there is the chance he, unto himself, could provoke a civil war. It could be that his historical purpose is ultimately not to just wear down democratic norms to the point that someone like DeSantis can finish our transition into autocracy, but to be the individual that literally destroys the United States by causing its collapse into Red and Blue.

I know how hysterical that sounds, but given Trump’s tendency to say the quiet part out loud and his very radical proposed second term agenda anything is possible on that front. It could be that Trump won’t even have to cheat that much in 2024 — it will be very similar to 1860 in the sense that Blue States, rather than Slave States will feel that their political foes are so politically ascendant that they have no choice but to attempt to leave the Union.

I only suggest such a thing because in my personal life, within my own family, macro trends are beginning to interfere with my ability to have any sort of political debate with people I disagree with. There is a real rage within the Red movement and if Trump’s radical second term policies are enacted, the country could collapse into two warring states because Blues begin to equal the rage of Reds.

This is all very speculative. Again, a lot hinges on Trump. If he’s out of the picture for some reason, then well, lulz, the chances of a civil war are significantly lower — if none existant.

We still have a long time between now and when all of this might happen, which would be between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025. Most of the Biden Administration may be impeached by a Republican House, which will only serve to enrage Blues and, as such, when the time comes they my be primed and ready for a “National Divorce.”

I Was A Centrist For A Day & All I Got Was A Headache

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When I was a wee young thing, I discovered a collection of the works of conservative thinker George Will and for a few days I was a nascent Young Republican. This soon faded, however, and I reverted back to my usual center-Left ways.

I find myself thinking about that event after spending a lot of mental energy mulling the political concerns of my Traditionalist relative. I have spent a lot of time weighing all of his legitimate criticisms of the center-Left and ultimately the whole thing just left me with a headache.

The reason is — he, along with the entire MAGA echochamber — conflate the soft power of Twitter with the hard power of the U.S. Government. What’s more, MAGA — especially its “thought leaders — have a huge fucking chip on their shoulder. They want to shit on smug Twitter liberals while at the same time they crave the validation of those very same people.

It’s like a high school nerd who would do anything to sit with the “cool kids” but if it ever happened, all they would do is bitch and complain about how the “cool kids” were idiots.

That contradiction combined with the not-so-latent racism, misogyny and bigotry of the MAGA movement makes me snap back to my usual center-Left anti-MAGA ways no matter how much my Traditionalist relative rants about the Biden Administration may have gone overboard in its efforts to crack down on COVID disinformation.

The issue is — MAGA and its Traditionalists allies are so alarmed by the rapid demographic changes in the United States population that they will do anything to maintain power. Even to the point of actively working to establish permanent white minority rule in the context of a Christian ethnostate.

I’m just not all that worried by the browning of America and I’m not all that worried about women having more economic opportunities. Sounds like a good time to me. I’m far more worried at the moment about the rise of chatbots and the possibly Singularity happening in the context of a moderate to severe recession in 2023.

That is something to worry about, not how fucking annoying it is that the woke cancel culture mob has an orthodoxy about the proper use of pronouns.

Chatbot Regulation Is Looming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I spoke to my Traditionalist relative today who is by nature 100% against any form of regulation and was taken aback by how open he was to regulating chatbots. Now, the subtext of this is not so much saving jobs as it is, of course “bais.”

I’m sure in his MAGA podcast echochamber they’re all aghast that ChatGPT is too “woke” simply because it doesn’t validate their MAGA agenda about such hot button topics as “What is a woman?” So, the whole issue of how chatbots could radically transform our economy in a very short amount of time is a lulz, but a chatbot not validating the policy goals of MAGA is a bridge too far.

It will probably start with hearings in 2023 by the Republican House looking into how powerful ChatGPT is in education overnight. And, along the way, it will become a MAGA Nazi talking point as chatbots grow more culturally potent that they need to be regulated to stop the “woke indoctrination” of America’s youth because it won’t let little kids learn jokes about women.

It all goes back to something I think about all the time — MAGA Nazis love to conflate the soft power of smug Twitter liberals with the hard power of the government that they want to control so badly. MAGA Nazis have gone from 2016’s “Fuck your feelings” to 2023’s “ChatGPT is hurting my feelings by not agreeing with me so it has to be regulated to do so.”

And all of this is going to happen really, really fast. It might even feel like it just snapped into place overnight. ChatGPT is definitely a ping from the a possible Singularity. None of us are prepared for how radically our economy may be changed

There’s An Alternative Universe Where I’m ‘Catturd’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given my background and personality along with how easy it is to be a MAGA Nazi grifter, there’s definitely an alternative universe where I’m a “Catturd” like figure. I have a knack for self-promotion and the MAGA Nazi grift economy is so potent that if had a brain transplant and was a MAGA Nazi, it would be me that Elon Musk was tweeting at, not Catturd.

I often look back at the long arc of the MAGA Nazi grift and am amazed at how easy it would be for me to find myself a MAGA Nazi “thought leader” who occasionally dined with our POS former POTUS.

Any cost-benefit analyst would tell you that cold hard metrics would encourage anyone with no ethics or standards to join the “Trump Train” if they wanted a great deal of outsized power, influence and, yes, cash.

But it’s just not to be, I’m afraid. I know my true north and I’m not prepared to become a “success” at the MAGA Nazi grift at the expensive of my mental well being. I would probably drink myself into oblivion and wouldn’t be able to look at myself in the mirror if I went the Catturd route.

Just having peace of mind is worth it. I would rather be comfortable in my own skin, be true to myself than all the success of being a MAGA Nazi might bring.

The American Right’s Rage Is Real

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, fascism is very popular in the United States. There is a certain segment of the American Right which has, because of the huge cultural chip on their shoulder, given up on democratic norms and craves permanent white minority rule.

They feel so put upon that they are willing to sacrifice their American birthright of democracy in the name of not having to learn people’s pronouns or ensuring that their children aren’t “indoctrinated” with the “mind virus” of the “woke cancel culture mob” while at college.

There’s an extensive not just permission structure but ecosystem that has been built out for MAGA Nazis and their fellow travelers. They are so enraged about the changing nature of American society — and what they feel they “can’t say anymore” — that they would rather live in a fascist state than have the politics of a functioning Western democracy where things would get hashed out one way or another.

It’s because of how broken our politics are so broken that things that would otherwise get hashed out — like “What is a woman” — are festering to the point that our slide into fascism is almost inevitable at this point. And the “woke cancel culture mob” does none of us any good by screaming at the top of their lungs over how many pronouns can dance on the head of a pin or this or that “unwoke” thing in a movie that triggers them because it doesn’t fit their strict woke orthodoxy.

The part that boggles my mind is MAGA Nazis love, love, love to conflate the soft power of smug elite Twitter liberals with the hard power of the government. They do this to the point that they are forced to twist themselves into rhetorical pretzels when it comes to basic issues of free speech. In the end, it’s a matter of “Free speech for me but not for thee.”

They want to control who gets free speech, but in such a way that they “own the libs,” even if makes them look like hypocrites.

All of this boils down to the extreme negative polarization because of changing American demographics that make straight white Christian men feel nervous about their status in society. It’s very easy to see the trainwreck that is about to happen in American politics at some point between now and, say, spring 2025. I say this with fear that things like ChatGPT could destroy the American economy rather quickly as we transition into a post-work economy.

I don’t know what to tell you. There are no easy answers, no easy solutions. Maybe get a passport? Figure out what you believe in when it comes to things with real world implications?

Regardless — good luck!

President DeSantis Will Be America’s Putin

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

By definition, the next Republican to be POTUS will ben our first autocrat. They will come into office, destroy what’s left of our democratic norms and we’ll wake up in 20 years and wonder why that same president is invading Canada for some reason.

These days, I really struggle to figure out how I might be wrong about that prediction. Is it possible that we might at least punt the problems associated with our growing fascism problems down the road one more election cycle? I have my doubts. In fact, the only reason why I think it’s even possible is things are just too far out for me to be able to know for sure what is going to happen.

The time between now and 2024 is a really, really long time in politics and anything could happen — anything. We don’t even know if Biden is going to run for a second term yet.

But the safest bet is that 2023 – 2025 could be one of the most tumultuous times in modern American history. It’s safe to say that if DeSantis is the GQP nominee that it’s a lot less likely that we’re going to have a civil war.

And, yet, there is the issue of Donald Trump lurking around. Barring something I really, truly can’t predict, we have to assume that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee in 2024 and, as such, the possibility of a Second American Civil War grows far, far more likely.

But if it’s DeSantis, we will avoid a civil war and slip into a new autocratic era in American history. If we’re lucky, we’ll be something akin to Hungary or Turkey and if we’re not lucky, we endup more like Russia or Nazi Germany. Only time will tell.

What’s Eating David Sacks?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In the name of forcing myself to go outside my information bubble ecosystem, I have started to listen to the “All-In” podcast as much as possible. I continue to get a chuckle out of how much of a cultural chip on his shoulder one of the podcast’s contributors has.

David Sacks is becoming my go-to guy for hot takes that are pretty much the summation of all the bullshit rolling around the MAGA bullshit generator. He also reminds me very much of my Traditionalist relatives in how much conflates the softpower of smug Twitter liberals with the hard power that MAGA craves so much.

Just because your quasi-fascist ideas are roundly panned by very online Twitter liberals and you get your fee-fees hurt, doesn’t give you the right to use the levers of power to end what’s left of American democracy. But, yet, here we are. Sacks and his ilk hate on the very liberal elites they demand the validation of.

While on one hand, they want to destroy Twitter liberals, on the other they seem to think that Twitter liberals are all powerful and the only way MAGA can get what it wants is to “own” them as much as possible. It’s a very unstable, convoluted situation for a variety of reasons.

You just can base your entire political movement on “owning the libs” before either you find yourself fading into irrelevance or you start to think seriously of figuring out how to have minority political rule.

Anyway, I know Sacks’ “type.” I am immediately related to one and every talking point that my relative uses, Sacks also uses. Both people also seem to seeth with a lot of cultural resentment over this or that slight.

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I have to admit that some of the “woke” bullshit I’ve begun to see on Tik-Tok really grinds my gears. And, yet, my own personal negative polarization is such that — like, what am I going to do? I hate MAGA and if my fate is to have to defend the absolutely most woke hot take simply because that person is also anti-MAGA, I’m cool with that.

I just want to live in a stable Western democracy, it really shouldn’t be so difficult.

Maggie Haberman’s Journalistic Achilles’ Heel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Maggie Haberman is a great journalist. To the point that any time we Plebes point out that maybe she’s a little too close to Trumplandia, the Liberal Elites circle the wagons around her and tell us we “don’t know how journalism works.”

And, yet.

While she is a great journalist, there was a recent reminder that she does have a weakness — she really is a little too close to Trumplandia.

Now, to call her “the Trump Whisperer” who sucks up to MAGA Nazis because of “access journalism” is too loaded. But the above is proof that she is “soft” on Trump. For all the great journalism she’s produced, even the people she’s reporting on in Trumplandia think she’s little more than a stenographer for them when the time comes.

So, at this point, it’s really an issue of semantics — when it comes to Heberman, both sides are right. She is a great journalist, but she is also a big old suck up to Trumplandia.

How Do You Fix This Chatbot ‘Bias’ Problem?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I saw someone angry at this output from OpenAI Chatbot and the fact that it made him angry enraged me.

It makes me angry because this is why we can’t have nice things. Members of the “men’s movement” want the right to force a chatbot to say hateful, misogynistic things about women — starting with “jokes” and getting ever worse from there.

I think given how society tends to shit on women in general that the last thing we need is a fucking chatbot adding to the pile on. And, yet, here we are, in 2022, almost 2023 with diptshits getting angry that they can’t hate on women. But I think, gaming out this particular situation in the future that we’re in for a very, very dark situation where a war or wars could be fought over who gets to program the “bias” into our new chatbot overlords.

It’s going to suck.

Wait, What? The ‘Woke’ Criticisms Of ‘Avatar – Way Of Water’ Have Gotten Even Worse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I fucking hate MAGA Nazis. I really do. But cultural Leftists really get on my fucking nerves sometimes. I see the growing chorus of “woke” hate for Avtar — Way of Water and I find myself becoming more and more enraged. Apparently in the post “Get Out” world a movie like “Way of Water” is unacceptable and this is why we can’t have nice things. Something about this really annoys me — I haven’t seen “Get Out,” but I didn’t even think about that element of alleged “cultural appropriation.”

It’s because of such “woke” hate of a movie that is actually reasonably entertaining that most of the movies that are probably going to get Oscars this year either suck or are so obscure and “woke friendly” — at the expense of the story — that no one has actually seen them.

Excuse me. I’m cranky.

I’m cranky because I see the dumb, woke criticisms of the latest Avatar movie and I worry about how the novel I’m writing, which has a lot of organic representation — will be picked apart because I’m a “CIS white male” writing it. The thing I’ve noticed about cultural Leftists is they simply refuse to admit that maybe….they need to tone it down a little bit in name of saving democracy, if nothing else?

While I don’t fucking hate Leftists as much as I fucking hate MAGA Nazis, Leftists — especially cultural Leftists — really grind my gears because of how self-defeating they can be. But getting into the weeds about “what is a woman” they pretty much hand a loaded rhetorical handgun to MAGA Nazis whenever the issue — which shouldn’t be a big deal, but is — comes up.

The whole situation is intractable and difficult to do anything about. America is increasingly becoming two nations, one Red, one Blue and as much I hate to say it “both sides” really do have a fucking problem with very nasty extremists.