Are We Going To Have A Civil War?

by Shelt Garner

First, it is highly unlikely that the United States will have a civil war. And, what’s more, if we have one, it’s probably going to be because Trump is the Republican nominee and that, unto itself, forces Blue States out of the Union.

But, let’s speculate on what all the MAGA Republican cocksuckers are obsessed with — the idea that MAGA is going to demand a National Divorce and, as such, cause a Second American Civil War.

It’s kind of difficult for me to even imagine how this might happen, given how politically ascendant MAGA is at the moment, but, for the sake of argument, let’s try it.

The most obvious straight line scenario is Biden wins re-election and that, unto itself, causes states to leave the Union — probably starting with either Texas or South Carolina. I still struggle to imagine any scenario whereby we have the long-hoped for “MAGA Revolution” whereby good olde boys, en masse, pick up their AR-15s and start shooting, “every liberal they see.”

I still believe, at least at the moment, that any Second American Civil War we have will happen at the state level, just like the first one.

But there are some high-level complications to such a clear-cut scenario. One is, Biden — and Trump — are both so old that that potentially throws some curveballs into any future history predictions. I could see if something happens to Biden between Election Day and Certification Day that might be the type of complication that leads to a civil war.

Another possibility is DeSantis gets the Republican nomination and Trump leaves the party, splitting the Republican vote. That is another way that I could see Red — rather than Blue — states leaving the Union and starting a civil war. That would give us a replay of 1860’s election where Slave Power was so divided that they they lost against Lincoln.

But, again, I just don’t see Reds starting a civil war because I just don’t see MAGA allowing any Democrat winning the presidential election in 2024. It seems as though the most likely endgame is DeSantis is the nominee, Trump backs him and DeSantis is America’s Putin.

And, yet, MAGA Republicans have a huge boner for a National Divorce where they serve the papers, so I will talk about it some more.

The key is Trump.

Trump is not a historical Great Man, but MAGA Republicans are so frothy these days with their rhetoric that it seems as though Red States are primed and ready to leave the Union given the proper excuse.

I still don’t believe there will be a Second American Civil War. You may want to leave the country, yes, but it won’t be because of violence.

‘Flying Blind’

I continue to be puzzled by what is going on with the United States. The latest bonkers thing is Marjorie Taylor Greene calling for a National Divorce and, as such, a civil war. It was inevitable that she would take things to the next obvious stage in the nation’s continuing lurch towards autocracy or civil war.

The key reason why I just don’t see there being a civil war is modern American temperament. Someone I know who is really smart continues to tell me that the First American Civil War happened pretty much exclusively for economic reasons and there the battle over being “woke” is not an economic problem and as such, lulz — no Second American Civil War.

And, yet, there’s a first for everything

It could be possible that the United States will be the first nation in world history to destroy itself because of “vibes.” And, to be fair, there is an economic element to what’s going on in the United States. The fact that white Christians are so freaked out about the white Christian baby “birth dearth” that they want to ban birth control entirely is, at its heart, an economic issue.

But, in general, we’re still too far out from 2024 – 2025 to know for sure one way or another what is going to happen. I will be, however, totally shocked if its Red States who leave the Union if push comes to shove. Red States have no reason to leave the Union — they’re politically ascendant. All they have to do is be patient.

Meanwhile, if there’s going to be a National Divorce, it’s going to be because Blue States refuse to “bend a knee” to autocratic MAGA fascism.

I just don’t see that happening, though. We are, if anything, going to slip peacefully into a MAGA autocracy and that will be that.

Taking MTG’s Call For A ‘National Divorce’ Seriously

by Shelt Garner

The great irony regarding Marjorie Taylor Greene’s demand for a “National Divorce” is, of course, that if such a thing happened it’s going to be Blues who serve the papers.


I say this because MAGA is politically ascendant to the point that all they have to do is be patient and they’ll get the autocratic fascist state that they want so bad soon enough. By definition, our next Republican president will be the nation’s first autocrat. So, there’s really no reason for MAGA to want a “National Divorce.”

Meanwhile, it will be Blues in late 2024, early 2025 who have to make an existential decision about if they’re going to bend a knee to MAGA autocratic fascism or not. At the moment, I think it’s all going to be a lulz and we’ll just wake up in 20 years with the same Republican POTUS and wonder why we’re invading Canada.

In fact, I can’t think of any scenario where Red States leave the Union as part of a National Divorce. I suppose it’s possible that if A Democrat wins in 2024 that that, unto itself could cause Reds to leave the Union but given how craven Reds are, I just don’t see them allowing a Blue to win even if they win.

I suppose it’s possible that if we don’t know who POTUS is long after election day that that could spark a civil war, though I think in the end the U.S. Military would step in for a bit until passions cooled down. That sounds fantastical now, but stranger things have happened.

Of Marjorie Taylor Greene & The Potential For A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner

I continue to be alarmed by the political rise of Marjorie Taylor Greene because she’s just the type of person who Trump would pick as his second term Veep. What is so worrisome about her is she is it could be her, not someone like DeSantis, who is able to be the younger, more focused Trump.


Now, some context — I believe that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee that the risk of a Second American Civil War increases dramatically. He is so stupid and yet so popular within the ever-radicalizing MAGA Republican ranks that he could, unto himself, push Blue States out of the Union in late 2024, early 2025.

Or something. Something bad could happen.

What’s worse, Trump is beginning to make noise that if he doesn’t win in 2024, that THAT will be cause for Reds to start a civil war. The key issue when it comes to a potential civil war is it’s most likely to happen if we can’t figure out who POTUS is by January 20th, 2025. If that is still up in the air for any number of reasons, then the one institution that would otherwise stay out of the political fray — the U.S. Military — may be forced to step in for a little while to force cooler heads to prevail.

As such, as I keep saying, there are three possible Bad Things that could happen in 2024 – 2025: autocracy, civil war or military junta.

Anyway, back to MTG.

She’s such a curious mixture of craven buffoonery and political ambition that she definitely reminds me of Hitler. All she has to do is become Trump’s second term veep and she suddenly becomes a potential POTUS. I think everything we fear Trump would do in a second term but might be too stupid to pull off, she would actually be able to do.

Yes, she comes across as an ignorant moron, but she is very, very politically craven from what I can tell. So we need to be weary of her. She’s not going away and she could very well become POTUS.

One thing that is absolutely clear to me — we are careening towards a massive turning point in American history and any number of people we don’t really think about could suddenly become huge historical figures because of an unprecedented political crisis.

MTG: Trump, Part Duh

by Shelt Garner

I’m growing more and more alarmed that everything we were afraid malignant ding-dong Trump was going to do, malignant ding-dong Marjorie Taylor Greene will actually do. I’m beginning to think that given the dynamics of modern American politics that it’s not Ron DeSantis we have to worry about, but MTG.

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Dalton, Ga., on Jan. 4, 2021.

A lot of conservatives — especially my Traditionalists conservative relatives — love the *idea* of DeSantis. But, from all the accounts I’ve seen, DeSantis doesn’t have much personality. He’s all thug and no fun. It’s just not very entertaining to the great unwashed masses. MTG, meanwhile, is just like Trump only younger and just enough more focused to be really, really dangerous. She’s got a craven nature to her that is alarming. She wants power and once she gets it, she could very well know how to weld it in a way that lazy, stupid Trump never could.

It’s easy to imagine Trump picking MTG as his veep, him winning in 2024 — if he doesn’t manage to start a civil war along the way — and because he’s so fucking fat and old that he shuffles off this mortal coil and MTG becomes POTUS.

So, I think we should definitely take the threat of MTG seriously. The same metrics and corruption in our system that put Trump into the presidency could very well do the same thing with her. If it happened, all everyone will talk about is how much it’s just like Trumplandia, only worse because MTG knows what’s she doing and has the energy to implement her dystopian vision.

America is in big trouble and I have no ready answer as to how to avoid autocracy or civil war between now and, say, spring 2025. Good luck.

MTG’s ‘Velvet Fist?’

by Shelt Garner

I really don’t know what to make of Marjorie Taylor Greene. If there was ever a ping from an extremely dark future, it is the rise of MTG on the political scene. Apparently, MTG has Speaker McCarthy by the short ones and he is something of her plaything.

The thing about MTG is she seems just a tick or two away from being just as bonkers as Trump. And, yet, she also far more focused and power hungry in an actionable way than Trump. While Trump pretty much just flails around, not really doing anything, it seem as though given actual power that MTG might be actually be the autocrat that Trump wants to be.

As I have often said, the issue of the moment is not so much Trump as who he will pick to be his veep in 2024. Trump is so old and fat that if he manages to become POTUS again without causing a fucking civil war, then whomever is his veep could very well be on the fast track to becoming POTUS.

As such, I’m growing more and more alarmed with MTG. It could be her, not Trump or DeSantis who will be our first autocrat. But she would have to win the veepstakes first. There are any number of fucking would-be autocrats who Trump could pick. Everyone from Pompeo to Hawley are chomping at the bit to be Trump’s veep and, as such, our first autocrat.

I don’t think people really appricate who primed and ready the United States is for the type of legalistic autocracy that Russia has. In my mind, by definition, our next Republican president will be our first autocrat. A sizeable chunk of the American population — mostly white Christian men, natch — are all-in on the idea of autocratic MAGA fascism. They may not really articulate it that way, but from my conversations with my Traditionalist relatives — they want autocratic MAGA fascism.

What’s so comical about all of this is, of course, that when you press them on the consequences of what they want — that I would inevitably run afoul of the autocrat they want so much — they get really upset. They don’t seem able to connect the fact that while they would be Good Germans under the Fourth Reich, I, alas, am such a drunk loudmouth crank that it is inevitable that I would endup with an ICE bullet in the back of my head.

Anyway. What do I know.

The Ascendant MTG

by Shelt Garner

I don’t know what to make of Marjorie Taylor Greene because on one hand, she’s just another deranged MAGA moron and on the other she seems to want to be a real player in Washington. The only reason why this is both alarming and unnerving is she not only has incoming Speaker Kevin McCarthy over a barrel, making all these demands of him, but she’s also apparently in the running to be Trump’s 2024 veep.


Oh boy.

So, there there is a good chance that we may trade ding-dong Trump for ding-dong MTG at some point after 2025. Should she — gulp — become president either she would be a far more effective version of Trump or she would name someone like fat fuck Mike Pompeo to be her veep and he would would behind the throne. I call this the “Velvet Fist” scenario.

I just don’t know. While I do think it is very, very possible that MTG could become POTUS by being Trump’s veep, her actual ability to turn America into some sort of MAGA hellscape is debatable. But anything is possible, I guess.

I will note, however, that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee, the likelihood that America will have a Second American Civil War increases significantly. Let that marinate in your mind whenever thinking of MTG as POTUS one day.