MTG Keeps Proving My Theory Of The Case About The Nature Of A Second American Civil War Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner

I can’t predict the future, but I have for years now written about how I believe if there is an actual civil war, it won’t be some sort of mass freak out by AR-15 toting MAGA morons. It’s going to be a proper old school civil war with a secession crisis and the whole she-bang.

Just look at this tweet by Marjorie Taylor Greene:

The above words definitely seem to indicate that Republicans have secession on the brain if they don’t get what they want. And I still think that if there is a Secession Crisis in late 2024, early 2025 because Trump loses that Texas will be the first state to call up a secessionist convention.

Though I suppose it’s possible that Texas might defer to South Carolina out of a sense of historical symmetry. Of course, given the large African American population in South Carolina secession MIGHT be a hard sell in that state, even though apparently most of the Republicans in that state think “the South Shall Rise Again.”

But we’re still too far out — I just don’t know the specifics of any so-called “Fourth Turning.” The issue I just can’t predict is how serious Republicans are about leave the Union in a National Divorce if Trump doesn’t win. It could be all talk, even if Trump is going to be ranting at the top of his lungs that there should be a National Divorce so he doesn’t have to go to prison.

All I can tell you is — any National Divorce or subsequent 2ACW is going to be very, very, very messy and will probably prompt World War 3 while it’s at it. Hold on tight, things might be bumpy starting in late 2024, early 2025.

‘None Dare Call It Treason,’ MTG Edition

by Shelt Garner

I’ve given up trying to grok what the hell is going on within far Right circles where they are so partisan that they actively embrason treason if it fits their narrative. I suppose it all has something to do with how Trump is, at least in “vibe” terms a traitor so they feel they have to defend him via proxy whenever they can.

All of this is even more bonkers in the context of the legacy of Ronald Reagan. The fact that MAGA fascists would be “hard” on “wokeness” and amazingly soft of on treason and espionage is simply flabbergasting. Not only is it all very difficult to process, but if our partisan divide has gotten that bad, then it’s just a short jaunt to a National Divorce.

Now, remember, some — maybe most — of MTG’s bullshit is performative. She’s so craven that she’ll say whatever necessary to “own the libs” and stoke the base. I do think that she has the means, motive and opportunity to be America’s true autocrat by way of being ding-dong Trump’s second term Veep. She’s an idiot, but she’s definitely not so dumb that she couldn’t become what is marketed as America’s “Iron Lady” when the time comes.

There are about a dozen would-be autocrat waiting in the wings to do the final consolidation of power once Trump is out of the way. I still wonder if the tradition to autocracy will be peaceful or not. It really could go either way. The point is –we’re entering a very unstable moment in America’s political history. MAGA Republicans, on a systemic basis are chomping at the bit to establish permanent white Christian rule and the only question is if Blues bend a knee when they strike or if they bounce out of the Union in protest.

But, let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen.

How Worried Should We Be About Another Jan 6th-Like Event In NYC On Tuesday?

by Shelt Garner

Well. The conditions, at least, for something pretty fucking dramatic on Tuesday are beginning to develop in NYC. MTG is set to have a protest in NYC as Trump is being arraigned, so…could she incite the crowd to march down to the courthouse to cause a ruckus?

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Dalton, Ga., on Jan. 4, 2021.

I honestly don’t know.

It could be an example of an example of me just thinking up a dark, hysterical scenario to make myself feel better. Or it could be that something pretty messy and tragic is about to happen AGAIN, only this time in NYC.

In general, I just don’t like the idea of MTG being in New York City with an angry MAGA crowd in front of her. At the moment, at least, it definitely seems that the actual booking will be historic, but rather mundate.

Only time will tell.

There’s A Lot To Unpack There, MTG

by Shelt Garner

The thing about MTG is she’s a lot more dangerous than you might think. Unlike malignant ding-dong Trump, she’s young and focused and, given the opportunity, would be able to make her fascist dreams actually come true. This tweet on her part is pure projection.

MTG is downlow one of the most dangerous pols in modern American political life. All that has to happen is she become Trump’s second term veep, before you know it, we’re all talking about living under the “Velvet Fist” of an autocratic state.

We’d all spin it by saying she’s an American “Iron Lady,” when in fact she’s just a regular old fascist. She’s not just frothy, she’s a lot more radical on a practical basis than Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer Ron DeSantis.

The whole thing is very frightening. The United States continues to careen towards a the so-called “Fourth Turning” of a choice between autocracy or civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025.

How ‘Vibes’ Are Causing America To Careen Towards A Dark, Turbulent Future

by Shelt Garner

I’ve given up when it comes to trying to change the minds of the Traditionalists in my life. The sides are set. I love them and it’s time to just accept that one way or another we’re going to be on opposite ends of a great cleaving in the United States.

But the issue at hand is this — while I understand that typically civil wars start because of economic issues, it definitely seems as though there’s a good chance that the Second American Civil War could happen because of, well, vibes.

This is a prime example of what I’m talking about. The differences in how Red and Blue view things like our epidemic of gun violence boiled down to one bigoted tweet.

While people like me are outraged that YET ANOTHER mass shooting has taken place, Reds have managed to fuse to things they hate — Trans people and gun control — into one hateful message. And, what’s more, unless the mainstream media screams at the top of their lungs that the shooter was Trans, the entire Right wing bullshit echochamber will grow apoplectic…because of vibes.

They will demand that the moment Reds have control of the hard power levers of the State that, I don’t know, we’re all forced to have a chatbot implanted into a skulls that screams “anti-woke” ” propaganda into our mind at all times. I wish I was kidding.

But that’s what Republicans want. Republicans are very much like middle school nerds who get upset that the “cool kids” won’t let them sit with them at lunch. Their entire political movement is based on grievance to the point that they are willing to burn the United States to the ground — one way or another — unless they get what they want.

In short, America is being terrorized by thin-skinned crybabies who are upset with combination of the browning of America, its trending towards secularism and women having economy agency. The question for me is — do we just gradually shift into a MAGA Nazi autocracy….or do we have a civil war?

Still don’t know which one will happen yet.

Are We Going To Have A Civil War?

by Shelt Garner

First, it is highly unlikely that the United States will have a civil war. And, what’s more, if we have one, it’s probably going to be because Trump is the Republican nominee and that, unto itself, forces Blue States out of the Union.

But, let’s speculate on what all the MAGA Republican cocksuckers are obsessed with — the idea that MAGA is going to demand a National Divorce and, as such, cause a Second American Civil War.

It’s kind of difficult for me to even imagine how this might happen, given how politically ascendant MAGA is at the moment, but, for the sake of argument, let’s try it.

The most obvious straight line scenario is Biden wins re-election and that, unto itself, causes states to leave the Union — probably starting with either Texas or South Carolina. I still struggle to imagine any scenario whereby we have the long-hoped for “MAGA Revolution” whereby good olde boys, en masse, pick up their AR-15s and start shooting, “every liberal they see.”

I still believe, at least at the moment, that any Second American Civil War we have will happen at the state level, just like the first one.

But there are some high-level complications to such a clear-cut scenario. One is, Biden — and Trump — are both so old that that potentially throws some curveballs into any future history predictions. I could see if something happens to Biden between Election Day and Certification Day that might be the type of complication that leads to a civil war.

Another possibility is DeSantis gets the Republican nomination and Trump leaves the party, splitting the Republican vote. That is another way that I could see Red — rather than Blue — states leaving the Union and starting a civil war. That would give us a replay of 1860’s election where Slave Power was so divided that they they lost against Lincoln.

But, again, I just don’t see Reds starting a civil war because I just don’t see MAGA allowing any Democrat winning the presidential election in 2024. It seems as though the most likely endgame is DeSantis is the nominee, Trump backs him and DeSantis is America’s Putin.

And, yet, MAGA Republicans have a huge boner for a National Divorce where they serve the papers, so I will talk about it some more.

The key is Trump.

Trump is not a historical Great Man, but MAGA Republicans are so frothy these days with their rhetoric that it seems as though Red States are primed and ready to leave the Union given the proper excuse.

I still don’t believe there will be a Second American Civil War. You may want to leave the country, yes, but it won’t be because of violence.

‘Flying Blind’

I continue to be puzzled by what is going on with the United States. The latest bonkers thing is Marjorie Taylor Greene calling for a National Divorce and, as such, a civil war. It was inevitable that she would take things to the next obvious stage in the nation’s continuing lurch towards autocracy or civil war.

The key reason why I just don’t see there being a civil war is modern American temperament. Someone I know who is really smart continues to tell me that the First American Civil War happened pretty much exclusively for economic reasons and there the battle over being “woke” is not an economic problem and as such, lulz — no Second American Civil War.

And, yet, there’s a first for everything

It could be possible that the United States will be the first nation in world history to destroy itself because of “vibes.” And, to be fair, there is an economic element to what’s going on in the United States. The fact that white Christians are so freaked out about the white Christian baby “birth dearth” that they want to ban birth control entirely is, at its heart, an economic issue.

But, in general, we’re still too far out from 2024 – 2025 to know for sure one way or another what is going to happen. I will be, however, totally shocked if its Red States who leave the Union if push comes to shove. Red States have no reason to leave the Union — they’re politically ascendant. All they have to do is be patient.

Meanwhile, if there’s going to be a National Divorce, it’s going to be because Blue States refuse to “bend a knee” to autocratic MAGA fascism.

I just don’t see that happening, though. We are, if anything, going to slip peacefully into a MAGA autocracy and that will be that.

Taking MTG’s Call For A ‘National Divorce’ Seriously

by Shelt Garner

The great irony regarding Marjorie Taylor Greene’s demand for a “National Divorce” is, of course, that if such a thing happened it’s going to be Blues who serve the papers.


I say this because MAGA is politically ascendant to the point that all they have to do is be patient and they’ll get the autocratic fascist state that they want so bad soon enough. By definition, our next Republican president will be the nation’s first autocrat. So, there’s really no reason for MAGA to want a “National Divorce.”

Meanwhile, it will be Blues in late 2024, early 2025 who have to make an existential decision about if they’re going to bend a knee to MAGA autocratic fascism or not. At the moment, I think it’s all going to be a lulz and we’ll just wake up in 20 years with the same Republican POTUS and wonder why we’re invading Canada.

In fact, I can’t think of any scenario where Red States leave the Union as part of a National Divorce. I suppose it’s possible that if A Democrat wins in 2024 that that, unto itself could cause Reds to leave the Union but given how craven Reds are, I just don’t see them allowing a Blue to win even if they win.

I suppose it’s possible that if we don’t know who POTUS is long after election day that that could spark a civil war, though I think in the end the U.S. Military would step in for a bit until passions cooled down. That sounds fantastical now, but stranger things have happened.

Of Marjorie Taylor Greene & The Potential For A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner

I continue to be alarmed by the political rise of Marjorie Taylor Greene because she’s just the type of person who Trump would pick as his second term Veep. What is so worrisome about her is she is it could be her, not someone like DeSantis, who is able to be the younger, more focused Trump.


Now, some context — I believe that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee that the risk of a Second American Civil War increases dramatically. He is so stupid and yet so popular within the ever-radicalizing MAGA Republican ranks that he could, unto himself, push Blue States out of the Union in late 2024, early 2025.

Or something. Something bad could happen.

What’s worse, Trump is beginning to make noise that if he doesn’t win in 2024, that THAT will be cause for Reds to start a civil war. The key issue when it comes to a potential civil war is it’s most likely to happen if we can’t figure out who POTUS is by January 20th, 2025. If that is still up in the air for any number of reasons, then the one institution that would otherwise stay out of the political fray — the U.S. Military — may be forced to step in for a little while to force cooler heads to prevail.

As such, as I keep saying, there are three possible Bad Things that could happen in 2024 – 2025: autocracy, civil war or military junta.

Anyway, back to MTG.

She’s such a curious mixture of craven buffoonery and political ambition that she definitely reminds me of Hitler. All she has to do is become Trump’s second term veep and she suddenly becomes a potential POTUS. I think everything we fear Trump would do in a second term but might be too stupid to pull off, she would actually be able to do.

Yes, she comes across as an ignorant moron, but she is very, very politically craven from what I can tell. So we need to be weary of her. She’s not going away and she could very well become POTUS.

One thing that is absolutely clear to me — we are careening towards a massive turning point in American history and any number of people we don’t really think about could suddenly become huge historical figures because of an unprecedented political crisis.

MTG: Trump, Part Duh

by Shelt Garner

I’m growing more and more alarmed that everything we were afraid malignant ding-dong Trump was going to do, malignant ding-dong Marjorie Taylor Greene will actually do. I’m beginning to think that given the dynamics of modern American politics that it’s not Ron DeSantis we have to worry about, but MTG.

Marjorie Taylor Greene and Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Dalton, Ga., on Jan. 4, 2021.

A lot of conservatives — especially my Traditionalists conservative relatives — love the *idea* of DeSantis. But, from all the accounts I’ve seen, DeSantis doesn’t have much personality. He’s all thug and no fun. It’s just not very entertaining to the great unwashed masses. MTG, meanwhile, is just like Trump only younger and just enough more focused to be really, really dangerous. She’s got a craven nature to her that is alarming. She wants power and once she gets it, she could very well know how to weld it in a way that lazy, stupid Trump never could.

It’s easy to imagine Trump picking MTG as his veep, him winning in 2024 — if he doesn’t manage to start a civil war along the way — and because he’s so fucking fat and old that he shuffles off this mortal coil and MTG becomes POTUS.

So, I think we should definitely take the threat of MTG seriously. The same metrics and corruption in our system that put Trump into the presidency could very well do the same thing with her. If it happened, all everyone will talk about is how much it’s just like Trumplandia, only worse because MTG knows what’s she doing and has the energy to implement her dystopian vision.

America is in big trouble and I have no ready answer as to how to avoid autocracy or civil war between now and, say, spring 2025. Good luck.