by Shelt Garner
First, it is highly unlikely that the United States will have a civil war. And, what’s more, if we have one, it’s probably going to be because Trump is the Republican nominee and that, unto itself, forces Blue States out of the Union.
But, let’s speculate on what all the MAGA Republican cocksuckers are obsessed with — the idea that MAGA is going to demand a National Divorce and, as such, cause a Second American Civil War.
It’s kind of difficult for me to even imagine how this might happen, given how politically ascendant MAGA is at the moment, but, for the sake of argument, let’s try it.
The most obvious straight line scenario is Biden wins re-election and that, unto itself, causes states to leave the Union — probably starting with either Texas or South Carolina. I still struggle to imagine any scenario whereby we have the long-hoped for “MAGA Revolution” whereby good olde boys, en masse, pick up their AR-15s and start shooting, “every liberal they see.”
I still believe, at least at the moment, that any Second American Civil War we have will happen at the state level, just like the first one.
But there are some high-level complications to such a clear-cut scenario. One is, Biden — and Trump — are both so old that that potentially throws some curveballs into any future history predictions. I could see if something happens to Biden between Election Day and Certification Day that might be the type of complication that leads to a civil war.
Another possibility is DeSantis gets the Republican nomination and Trump leaves the party, splitting the Republican vote. That is another way that I could see Red — rather than Blue — states leaving the Union and starting a civil war. That would give us a replay of 1860’s election where Slave Power was so divided that they they lost against Lincoln.
But, again, I just don’t see Reds starting a civil war because I just don’t see MAGA allowing any Democrat winning the presidential election in 2024. It seems as though the most likely endgame is DeSantis is the nominee, Trump backs him and DeSantis is America’s Putin.
And, yet, MAGA Republicans have a huge boner for a National Divorce where they serve the papers, so I will talk about it some more.
The key is Trump.
Trump is not a historical Great Man, but MAGA Republicans are so frothy these days with their rhetoric that it seems as though Red States are primed and ready to leave the Union given the proper excuse.
I still don’t believe there will be a Second American Civil War. You may want to leave the country, yes, but it won’t be because of violence.
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