If Trump Cancels National Elections, There Will Be A Revolution Or Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t care what Trump thinks, barring something truly extraordinary like a few nukes blowing up across the USA, Trump simply can not cancel elections. Remember, the USA had elections during the middle of a civil war.

So, if Trump used what may be WW3 as a pretext to “cancel” elections, there will b hell to pay. I would even go so far as to say if Trump fucked with elections so they were clearly no longer free and fair, then, that, too might be enough to cause some sort of mass revolt on the part of the American people.

AND, something similar would happen if Trump ran for an illegal third term.

Anyway, I’ve frequently been accused of “hysterical doom shit” so maybe all of this is a lulz.

I am, however, unnerved by the prospect of some sort major terrorist attack in the USA sooner rather than later because of the dumb war Trump has started with Iran for seemingly no damn reason.

Potentially Watching the Opening Act of World War 3

I want to be clear: I don’t think we’re in World War 3 yet. But I do think we’ve entered one of the most genuinely destabilized moments in modern geopolitical history — and the distance between “very dangerous” and “catastrophic” is shrinking.

The two flashpoints I keep coming back to are Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

China’s posture toward Taiwan has grown increasingly assertive, and the window for a forced reunification attempt — whether through blockade, gray-zone pressure, or outright invasion — is a real strategic consideration among analysts, not just speculation. Xi Jinping has tied his legacy to the Taiwan question in ways that make backing down politically costly. If that move comes, it almost certainly draws in the United States, Japan, and potentially Australia, triggering a conflict that would dwarf anything we’ve seen since 1945.

Then there’s North Korea, which has gone conspicuously quiet. That’s not necessarily reassuring. The DPRK has spent the last several years dramatically advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, and silence from Pyongyang sometimes precedes provocation rather than signaling restraint. A miscalculation on the Korean Peninsula — or a deliberate escalation — could ignite a second front almost simultaneously.

What would it mean if several of these regional conflicts metastasized at once? At some point, the international community would have to reckon with the label: World War 3.

And here’s the domestic question that keeps nagging at me. If that label became unavoidable — if the U.S. were actively drawn into multiple simultaneous conflicts — would it create the political conditions for something unthinkable at home? Emergency powers have been expanded and abused before, even in democracies. The scenario where a president uses wartime crisis as justification to delay or suspend elections is not fantasy; it’s a documented playbook from history, and one that American institutions have never actually been stress-tested against at this scale.

I’m hopeful we don’t get there. I genuinely am. But hope isn’t a strategy, and the architecture of the current moment deserves to be taken seriously.

Only time will tell — and lately, time hasn’t been especially reassuring.

If We Appease Trump On Greenland, Canada Is Next

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to accept that we are in a new age, a new era. America is now run by a mad king, an America Caligula, and as such we have to look at things in a different way.

If we just lulz Greenland and let Trump seize it, then Canada will be next. And given the fact that Trump is, like, the Foundation series’ The Mule, he probably will get away with it. He probably will invade Canada, destroy all that and while there will be a lot of upheaval in the USA because of it, it’s not like he’ll be impeached and convicted.

Trump is, for the moment at least, not only a mad king, but a god-king. There’s just nothing we can do about the situation. Or, at least, there’s nothing we’re willing to do about the situation.

The US democratic political system is going to implode and it definitely looks as though China, the USA and Russia will divide the globe up into different spheres of influence.

Thankfully, Russia has an economy the size of Italy, so it can only do so much trouble in Europe unless it uses nukes — which is highly unlikely.

As for the USA, my fears about either dying in a camp or being thrown out a window by an ICE agent are growing…more possible, if not probable.

I’m Worried That Mad King Trump Will Demand A Constitutional Convent

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have a long, long, long three years ahead of us when it comes to Trump. And, as such, there are any number of ways that he could really screw things up. Given his love of besmirching anything that anyone holds sacred, it seems logical that Trump would inevitably go after the Constitution.

There are a few excuses I could imagine him using to do such a thing. One, the most obvious one, is so he can run for a third term. The second, less obvious, but equally potent to the MAGA base would be to pass a balanced budge amendment.

I say all of this in the context of a growing suspicion on my part that Trump is a Russian agent of some sort. Putin notoriously pass through a series of constitutional changes in Russia as he was consolidating power. It would make a lot of sense if Trump did too, because, lulz, form follows function.

As such, Trump has such an absolute hold on the American political system that once he broached the subject of a Constitutional Convention, there would be no stopping it happening.

And, as I understand it, there’s no avoiding the very real possibility that any such convention would be populated primarily with MAGA participants so Trump would, at last, make America Trumplandia once and for all on an existential basis.

Of Trump & Canada

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I didn’t entitle this “Will Trump Invade Canada?” because I am doing anti-SEO. I don’t want a wave to anxious Canadians coming to this site looking for answers that I just can’t give.

All I have is my opinion. As an American.

Now that we’re in a new normal where Trump is actively remaking the world in his own image, yes, I do think it’s possible that Trump could order an invasion of Canada.

There’s not a high probability, but it exists.

And that probability increases if there is any sort of skirmish between Canada and the US over…ugh…Greenland.

The issue is, I can’t tell you that there is anything or anyone in the US political system at the moment that would stop Trump from invading Canada. Things are so fucked up that Trump literally could invade Canada and Republicans would be silent and Democrats powerless.

There would be a wave of revulsion in the USA population that it happened, but it still would happen. And Trump would, in fact, demand that the entire fucking nation of Canada be the “51st state.”

And the really unnerving thing about the whole situation is because Canada isn’t some uniform block of people, there would be a lot of Canadians (as I understand it) would, after the shock wore off, at least want to negotiate some sort of peaceful assumption of power by the States over Canada.

Or, put another way, Canada would probably implode into parts that wanted to be American and parts that didn’t. (I think, I’m an American, but that seems to be the state of play on the ground in Canada at the moment.)

Anyway, I can’t predict WHEN this will happen, just that it MIGHT. We still have (at least) three years of Trump to go and he’s growing so bonkers that it literally could happen at any time or at no time.

Only time will tell.

The New Normal Of Trumplandia

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is no going back when it comes to Trump. Congress simply will not, can not do its job and so Trump as the Mad Emperor has free reign to reshape the world in its own image.

As such, we just have to accept that it’s possible that Trump will declare martial law, try to cancel elections and destroy NATO at some point. And, what’s more, he could very well run for an illegal third term just to finish off the old Constitutional order once and for all.

And there’s just nothing we can do about it, at least under the constraints of our existing political system. If I had any faith in the American people, I would believe it was at least possible that there might be a General Strike to bring down the Trump regime.

But, lulz, that’s just never going to happen.

Americans are simply too distracted and blasé about the world. The people who could do something about this particular issue — traditional conservatives — are now just “Good Germans” who are happy their taxes are lower and brown people are being locked up.

So, I don’t know what to tell you. This is it, guys. We’re finally living in Trumplandia.

The Only Possible Solutions

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


There are some severe macro problems facing the United States at the moment and there are only three solutions that I can see going forward.

  1. Full Blown Autocracy
    Right now, the USA is in a murky liminal political state where we are lurching towards a “hard” autocracy, but we’re not quite there yet. If we did become a real Russian-style autocracy, then that would solve a lot of our problems because, well, lulz. The plutocrats could push through even more radical transformations of the US without having to worry about their toadies in Congress getting voted out because there would be no free and fair elections. And Trump I could just be president for the rest of his life. This is the solution I think we’re going to get, but it’s not the only possible one.
  2. Civil War
    I think if we do somehow manage to keep voting free and fair and MAGA loses at the polls in a big way, that we’ll have a civil war. We almost had one in 2024, but for Trump winning. So, if MAGA loses, MAGA states will begin to leave the Union rather than face the possibility of any sort of center-Left government.
  3. Revolution
    The US is so big and diverse, I don’t know how, exactly this would happen, but I do think a center-Left revolution (which would lead to a civil war) is, at least, possible if we somehow don’t turn into a full blown militaristic autocratic state.

America May Be Finally Felled By…Vibes?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The issue of the moment is how the vibes are off in America, no matter how well the economy is actually doing. People are just unhappy and grumpy. It makes you wonder what the fuck is going on in America, why this is the case.

It definitely seems as though we’re going to vote malignant ding-dong Donald Trump back into office because we have just given up because of bad vibes. And, yet, as I have said before, I think maybe we should not fear this particular situation, but embrace it.

I say this because — we’re fucked.

Because of long term macro demographic changes in the United States, the Republican Party is now a pure, uncut fascist party. And, really, it’s just a matter of time that because of the ebb and flow of any semi-functioning democracy that one of the two major parties will get power again.

As such, of all the people to attempt to transition us into a fascist autocracy, Trump is probably the “best” of the available options. And, given how bad he will be in his tyranny, maybe….the good guys will win sooner rather than later?

I’m not advocating anything, but if I had to organize an General Strike against a American tyrant, I should would rather do it against Red King Trump I than anyone else who might be available.

But, hopefully, it won’t come to that.

Hard MAGA Power Vs. Soft Woke Power

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve gleaned from talking to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — is their abject fear of some future tyranny coming not from the hard power of the state but the soft power of “woke corporations.”

Of course, they’re complicit in the rise of the American fascist corporate state because not only do they not take the looming fascism of MAGA seriously, but they because they, in general, agree with that fascism it would all be a lulz.

Not until the hard power of the MAGA fascist state is used to not only deport 20 million undocumented people — which they want — but to also murder me in cold blood — which they don’t want — will they take notice of how there is a definite difference between hard and soft power.

So, what happens is, conservatives would far rather conflate issues and get REALLY WORKED UP over the “abuses” of the woke than they would have to give serious answers to questions like, “What happens when the massive infrastructure built out to deport 20 million people is used to murder people you love?”

They usually either don’t answer, make a joked to change the subject or piviot to the latest conservative talking point.

It can be very, very frustrating.

The rise of a MAGA fascist state in the US is not an abstract to me — I’m really beginning to worry that if Trump becomes POTUS again that I’m going to be murdered in cold blood by an ICE agent — or whatever — because I simply will not, can not shut the fuck up about how I think Trump is a fat fuck cocksucker.

But my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — just lulz all this. As long is those brown families are torn asunder at the border they’ll be content. As long as a stray trans person doesn’t get a free can of But Light, they will be content. As long as the social safety net is gutted and only fools and poors pay taxes, they will be content.

The list goes on.

It will be interesting to see what my fate is. If I’m lucky, I will be able to escape the country should Trump win re-election later this year.

A Darkness At Noon: What If Trump Goes Full Tyrant in 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. So there’s every reason to believe that Trump will lose later this year and we’ll punt our problems down the road another four years.

And, yet.

I like to make my abstract fears concrete, so, I worry. I worry a lot. Specifically, I worry about what is going to happen if Trump wins and then goes “fully tyrant” in 2025. Will there be any reaction at all if Trump is literally snatching his opponents off the street in broad daylight?

That, specifically, is the thing I just can’t game out. It could be that nothing happens and it could be that Trump will be so ham-handed in his autocracy that he single-handedly causes those rarest of American political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” to pop out.

Radical Moderates only appear in times of great crisis — like the Civil War, The Great Depression or WW2. And usually they don’t last long. The calm down and go back to being just regular old centrists.

I just don’t know. I have no idea what to tell you about events going forward.