Month: November 2020

Trump’s Asymmetrical Attack


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarer

A lot is going on right now. Trump is literally going to exhaust every possible autocratic attack on the process to stay in power before he totally flips out, pardons himself and flies to Moscow.

Or, put another way, the Republican Party is doing the heavy authoritarian lifting that Trump is way too lazy to do when it’s needed. As such, all they need is one — 1 — asymmetrical attack to work and Trump stays in office pretty much for as long as he likes. If he manages to pull this coup off, he will soon enough demand a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” It will go rogue and we’ll quite literally be just like Putin’s Russia on a political level.

The interesting thing will be if Trump gets his coup, there is a violent reaction in the streets then he invokes the Insurrection Act…and he has no idea what he wants to do once he “wins.” He has no ideology other than the grift, so we could go through a civil war and in the end realize it was nothing more than Trump pushing the issue because he didn’t want to go to prison.

Remember, it will be extremely easy for Trump to give talking points to 1/2 of the country should he pull off a coup of some sort. They have already started talking about “legal” votes. So those “legal” votes could be everything from MAGA Electors selected by Pennsylvania to Electors intimidated into voting for Trump because they don’t want spend the rest of their lives in the Witness Protection Program.

The real bonkers point of all of this even if we magically avoid a civil war after Trump gets his “legal votes” and they still don’t put him over the top, Trump could very well simply destroy as much as he can on the way out. The country go pretty much grinds to a halt because Trump fired thousands of government officials in January right before he pardoned himself and bounced to Moscow on AF1.

I wish I was kidding.

Our 3 Upcoming Trump Post-Election Crises


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The ironic thing is what’s going on right now is much like what happened in 2016, without, of course, the pretty good chance of a fucking civil war. At each step along the way in 2016, angry Clinton supporters deluded themselves into thinking they had a chance to stop Trump from winning.

Flash forward 4 years and holy shit. The country is split 50/50 and all Trump needs is a way to figure out how to stage a coup in such a way that MAGA people can own libs on Twitter by saying Trump won the “legal” votes. That’s it, that’s all the want. And they are doing this as if it’s totally value free and there will be no consequences.

Before I continue, some context. These three events will be happening in the context of Bill Barr using the same media narrative management techniques he used with the Mueller Report AND the very real threat that something totally unexpected happens that gives Trump his long-sought after “Reichstag Fire.” It could be an Oklahoma City type explosion in a Blue State, a shocking murder of a major political leader or a war with the DPRK or Iran. Anything to take our attention away from the election so Trump can simply never leave.

  1. Certification Crisis
    This is already happening. In theory, state legislatures have the ability to name their own elections without any regard to the will of the people. The last time this actually happened, I think, was the election of 1876. There might be a lot of practical problems to prevent this from actually happening, but Republicans are so enraged that the dear leader might actually lose, that they will be willing to move heaven and earth to get as close as possible to Trump winning as they possibly can. It’s all about building momentum and changing the media narrative. That’s it. And, of course, “owning the libs.”
  2. The Elector Intimidation Crisis
    For all their talk about “legal votes,” this may be what Republicans are really talking about. The only “legal votes” that are cast for president are those of the Electors. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where Trump doxes all the Electors on Twitter and “jokes” to MAGA to “remind them of the power of the 2nd Amendment.” They are human beings, after all, and the prospect of having to join the Witness Protection Program for the rest of their life if they don’t vote for Trump might give a few of them pause for thought. Especially if a few of them have already been murdered by some deranged MAGA person. This could really happen.
  3. Trump’s January Freak Out
    If we somehow manage to get past 1 and 2, then we face the worst of all of these — it beginning to sink in to Trump that he’s actually going to leave office. He has solid month or so to snap and finally freak the fuck out. This is when he will grow extremely unpredictable as it begins to sink in that he may actually leave office and face legal jeopardy. It’s possible that the final Republican litmus test will be if they had to be physically removed from office just like the Dear Leader. So it might not be just Trump we have to remove from the White House, it could be Pompeo at State, too. (The list goes on.) Or, Trump could pardon himself, fire half the Federal government and then abscond with AF1 to Moscow or Pyongyang.

    Good luck.

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Gambit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is truly the dumbest timeline. All signs point to some sort of extra-political move on Trump’s part, and, yet, at the same time for the moment there seems to be an element of throw everything possible at the wall and see what sticks. In other words, Trump refuses to give up, no matter what. To the point that he’s willing to stumble into a coup for no other reason than he simply can’t process actually losing the presidency.

So, it’s possible that Trump is actively doing everything in his power to destroy evidence of criminal activity on his part AND setting up an extra-political move AND preparing for his post-presidency all at the same time.

Remember, we have about a month until the certification of votes and the Electors vote. That gives Bill Barr more than enough time to pull something out of his butt so neither one of those events happen without them being corrupted and attacked.

This could happen to the extent that Trump sort of accidently-on-purpose stages a coup and then when there’s a massive backlash in the streets to this, he uses to Insurrection Act…all without himself knowing what the endgame is. He could do it on strictly a tactical basis –there would be no grand, overarching strategy over than just not leaving office. He could very well drag the whole Republican Party in to a coup without really having any point to it other than he doesn’t want his feelings hurt.

In a sense, 240 years of American liberal democracy is at risk because Trump is a snowflake who doesn’t want his fee-fees hurt. Let that sink in for a moment.

Or, put another way, we’re probably going to have a Vote Certification Crisis and an Elector Intimidation Crisis over and above any ratfucking Barr does with the Justice Department. The more difficult it is for Trump to stay in power, the more ham handed and radical he will become and the Republican Party won’t say a word.

Trump, in desperation, could dox all the Electors on Twitter and “joke” that they need to be reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment by MAGA. It’s a value free thing for him to do. Either he just scares the shit out of everyone or he wins and in both cases — fuck you lib.

And remember, I haven’t even mentioned the various Reichstag Fire scenarios ranging from Wag The Dog wars with the DPRK or Iran or one of his own followers blowing up 30 Rock in NYC in an effort to impress The Dear Leader with his devotion to the cause. Any of those type of unexpected events would be enough for Trump to take “told control,” thinking by the time everything was sorted out he would be in his second term.

I still contend that our absolute best case scenario is somehow we get past the Vote Certification Crisis and the Elector Intimidation Crisis and Trump STILL hasn’t “not lost” and he freaks out, pardons himself and flies AF1 to either Pyongyang or Moscow and spends all his time banging whores and rambling about all the aliens at Area 51.

So, it’s at least possible that either there is a coup, it works because of the Insurrection Act but once they actually try to consolidate power it all falls apart because they’re a bunch of incompetent morons who want all the power but none of the responsibility. They destroy every possible thing in hopes of staying in power forever, but they don’t have the wherewithal to do it and so on January 20th, Biden is sworn in and they just wonder around in a daze.

That’s the absolute best case scenario.

More likely there really is going to be a coup.

Coup Predictions


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still don’t know exactly how it’s going to happen, but very soon Trump is mysteriously going to “not lose” the 2020 Election and all hell is going to break loose. All the miscalculations, assumptions, infrastructure and momentum are there for it to happen any moment now.

It may take a little bit longer than I expect for logistical reasons, but in the end the result will be the same: Trump will “not lose.”

In quick succession, we can expect Biden supporters to (rightfully) flip the fuck out. And in just as quick succession, Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act. He will have the legal right to order the U.S. Military to knock heads. Then 50% of the population will think a coup is happening (it will be) and 50% of the population will relieved that the Dear Leader will stay in office to protect them from being canceled by AOC+3. The same talking points that were used against the protestors in Portland will be used at this point, as well. The Right will chant “law and order” and as such, well, we’re all very much fucked.

As I have said repeatedly in the past, my prediction is that at this point, political violence across the country will be such that there will be significant consolidation of Red and Blue States with massive numbers of domestic political refugees springing up. We can expect a rather abrupt purging of the media as well, probably after angry New Yorkers storm Trump Tower and or Fox News.

Once the purge of the media takes place there will be a moment of truth for a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people who vote for Trump because they feel they have no alterative. I refuse to give them the benefit of the doubt, however, so we’re just going to have to assume whatever happens is going to be a 50/50 split.

Also at this point, because of the dynamics of such historic events, a number of people’s lives will be radically changed forever. Heros will be made and cowards will be shamed, as I like to say. Once people who thrive in stability (read: normal successful people) are faced with a crisis beyond their imagination and ability to process, they may very well just choke. They will panic because they simply don’t do well in a crisis.

We can also expect the U.S. Military to begin to implode. Even though Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act allows him to be a tyrant legally, there may be large numbers of the military who just can’t kill innocent civilians no matter the reason and they will join up with the provisional Blue State government.

I honestly can’t came out the endgame of this shitshow. The two sides may be so equally matched that it’s a draw and the United States splits into two countries — Trumplandia and Bluedoian (or whatever.) Or it could be that because of unexpected leadership and, well, dumb luck — just like in the original Civil War — the Blue States will win and renew the American Covenant. Or, MAGA wins and they start murdering people like me in cold blood.

If you want to get really dark about such things — we may be in for about four years (the usual length of a major war) of a massive clusterfuck. WMD may be used by both sides on each other. Foreign powers may get involved in some way. WW3 may happen. The entire political geography of North America may be re-drawn.

But one thing is for sure — we’re in a new era. All bets are off. It’s up to us what happens next.

TrumpBarr Coup Preflight & Triage


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I have long predicted, TrumpBarr is staging a coup. Now what? Well, while absolutely no one listens to me, let’s see where things stand. We have to assume the moment TrumpBarr strikes, there will be significant violence on the part of Biden supporters. And that, in itself, will be enough for TrumpBarr to invoke the Insurrection Act.

That’s just a given.

Remember, it is going to be extremely easy for TrumpBarr to convince 50% of the population that Trump is the “legal” president after all the “legal” votes have been counted. In fact, I don’t even think MAGA-Qanon people will even care how brazen the lie is. They want the autocrat to stay in power and cry more, lib.

The invoking of the Insurrection Act is going to be a bodyblow, but not a knockout one. At least, not if we assume that’s happening no matter what. Unlike some of the nattering nabobs of negativism on Twitter, I am not completely oblivious to human nature and simply accept that there will be significant protests when TrumpBarr stages its coup. That’s just a given.

What TrumpBarr wants to do is sucker punch Biden supporters through it’s control of SCOTUS, the government and the military (via the Insurrection Act.) They want to, in essence, to do a political 9/11 on the First Republic from within. Since most people, now that the election has been called, assume Biden is going to be president, they are going to have the element of surprise.

But once the Insurrection Act is invoked, what do we do?

We’re going to have to start thinking existential. Once the Insurrection Act is used, we have to accept that the First Republic is dead. The best we can hope for is to renew the American Covenant by founding a Second Republic. This will be extremely painful for a number of reasons, but to think the First Republic exists once someone as deranged as Trump can use the military to knock heads is delusional.

We need to start thinking about First Principles and how we might fight back. Now, the following is abstract — at least to me. I’m not advocating any form of violence, but I am, in an abstract manner, noodling different ways we could counter-attack against MAGA-Qanon. I hate violence and I’m a man of peace. So when TrumpBarr’s sham People’s Court tries me for sedition, at least I will have made it clear I wasn’t actually advocating anything. (Not that it will matter by that point.)

The first thing we have to do is keep California in the Union. Another thing might be to figure out where the Second Republic’s provisional seat of power might be. New York City makes the most since, but on a strictly macro political level, you might want somewhere in California.

Also, I think we need to take a hard look at what is really going on with the United States. The key strength of the Blue States is they have a lot of population in a small geographical area. This is good because you don’t have as much area to defend. Yes, for the moment Blue States aren’t contiguous but that could potentially be fixed rather easily — I mean, if things really get bad, who’s going to stop a blitzkrieg through Idaho? I know there are plenty of survivalists there who have been waiting for this moment for 40 years, but, still, come on.

Additionally, we don’t know if the U.S. Military, in real terms, is going to continue as a institution. It’s possible, not probably, that much like the first Civil War, the U.S. Military will implode and there will be two different armies going at it.

One thing is important — if this dystopian hellscape scenario actually took place we would need leaders, an agenda and demands. Or, in short — vision. We would have to know what we were fighting for. In fact, I would say that’s the biggest weakness Biden forces have going into this clusterfuck.

MAGA-Qanon know what they’re fighting for — the glory of the Dear Leader. So, they think they can suckerpunch Biden forces and that will be that. And, tragically, they’re probably right.

But who knows. The South in 1861 had every reason to believe they could suckerpunch the North out of the war and we all know how that worked out. I guess what I’m saying is — don’t take anything for granted. The Bad Guys can actually win. But, just as equally, can the Good Guys. Good luck.

How Soon Is Now? Twitter Liberals Need To Get Woke to A Possible Brewing Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Twitter liberals right now are completely fucking useless. They are so busy scoring points on Twitter and preening about their latest piece in The Atlantic that they are quaintly assuming the traditional rules of politics apply to the shitshow brewing right now.


Sadly, 50% of the population knows what is obvious: politics is dead in America right now. We’ve left the realm of politics and now we are dealing with realpolitik. Things like can we keep California in the Union, can Blue State governors call up militia legally are the things we have to worry about now. This sounds hysterical, I know. And I will be so grateful if I’m proven wrong. I have a novel to finish, afterall.

You now who Twitter liberals remind me of? Horace Greeley. He was the publisher of The New York Tribune and ran for president (then died) in 1872. He was famous for saying in 1861, “Wayward sisters, part in peace.” He was the OG Internet crank, too. He was a real pain in the but for Lincoln for a variety of reasons.

Anyway, just like Greeley, Twitter liberals are completely clueless about what’s going on and how to deal with it. There are no assurances the Good Guys will win. In fact, we may have a pretty dystopian future ahead of us for the next, well, long time. About 50% of the population is cool with autocracy and spare me your “oh, that would never happen.”

Or, put another way, it definitely seems as though 2020 is it — about 50 years of macro trends are reaching a tipping point, just as I have repeatedly written on this blog.

This could be it. This could be the end of the United States’ First Republic. I have no idea what is going to happen. There’s no obvious endgame. No fate but what we make, as they say at the end of Terminator 2.

It Can Happen Here — Pre-Coup Planning


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In hindsight, it’s so obvious this was going to happen. I was thrown off by Trump not striking before the election was called by the media. I think that has more to do with how much in denial Trump has been more than anything else. But, now, he’s slowly bouncing back. He’s going to attack every weakness, every step, every norm, every law that stands between him and “not losing.”

He has SCOTUS and the entire Republican Party willing to facilitate that aim.

The old saying goes both love and war are easily started and difficult to end and that seems very applicable to our current situation. Going into this, Barr thinks he can sucker punch Biden forces so they’re so stunned that by the time they figure out what’s happening, Trump is being sworn in for a second term. His thinking is — it worked in 2000 and it worked with the Mueller Report, why won’t it work now?

I guess my only form of solace is if you looked at the state of play in 1861, 1914 or 1939 / 41, you might not have been very quick to assume the outcome that ultimately happened. So, yeah, it’s very possibly that TrumpBarr will succeed in their coup attempt and some sort of MAGA Reconstruction of Blue States will take place soon enough.

But great risk brings great opportunity. I’ve already made it clear that if the country implodes I’m heading to NYC. Though, only in the context of being one of thousands of other domestic political refugees. It’s not like I’m just going to go North alone. Things will have gotten pretty bad for me to simply head North and see what happens.

More likely, I’m going to just provide a warm body for any type of protests that might happen in DC.

I would note, however, that a lot of the strength of TrumpBarr right now is Biden people assuming the rules of politics still apply. The moment TrumpBarr make it clear that is not the case, then MAGA might find things are bit more nasty than they expected.

The key thing for me is unity. If we can get, say, California to stay and fight then we’re in a pretty good position to win any civil war / revolution that a coup might incite. I’ve written about all of this at great length on this site before.

Anyway. I’m often wrong. Hopefully this is just another instance of me being hysterical. We’ll see.

State Of Pre-Coup Play


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here’s the state of play before we have a potential coup. On one hand, Biden forces believe they’ve won. The race has been called by the media and Biden is quite literally measuring the drapes in the Oval Office.

Meanwhile, the shock is beginning to wear off for House Trump and they’re slowly beginning to form a plan for a coup. Or, an extra-political act that only about 50% of the population will think is a coup.

Really, it seems as though they’re using the spaghetti gambit right now — throw everything at the wall and see what sticks. But one thing is clear — the more difficult is for Trump to stay in power, the more radical, brazen and craven TrumpBarr’s anti-democratic tactics will become.

If it’s not denying Biden the certification of votes in state legislatures, then it will be directly threatening the lives of Electors. Twitter liberals REALLY need to get woke to what may be about to happen. As it stands, they’re completely oblivious to how dangerous things are now and how dark and dire they may be about to become.

It seems we’re in for something of a suckerpunch. The first strike will be something like the refusal to certify votes. Something, anything, to throw things up in the air so they go to SCOTUS where Republicans know, absolutely know, they will win.

All they need is a thin veer of legality so the MAGA base can “own the libs” on Twitter again. That’s all they need and all they want. And, what’s more when the 50% of the population that sees this for what it is — a coup — freaks the fuck out, then Trump can invoke the Insurrection Act. Game over.

So it definitely seems as though I was right all along — we’re in the twilight day of the American First Republic. The question is, of course, do we have it in us to found the Second Republic?

I have no idea what the endgame is. Maybe I’m wrong about all of this. I can’t predict the future. But I do generally know Trump’s nature and he DID say he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose a vote. Replace a person with a Republic and, well, here we are.

Subscribe to my Soundcloud. (Wink.)

It Appears Possible Some Sort of Coup Is About To Occur


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are dark things afoot. And it’s still very possible that I’m completely misunderstanding the exact nature of some of the events of the last 24 hours. But there’s a non-zero chance that I have it just about right — some sort of coup is being plotted by Republicans.

My current theory is they’re going to attack certification of the votes. Through media narrative management, they want Republicans in crucial states to do a form of “jury nullification.” They just won’t certify the vote because fuck you, lib. The point of this would be to throw it to SCOTUS in some manner where they know they will win — Trump doesn’t lose.

Now, remember, while Republicans really don’t give a fuck what you think, this would not happen in a political vacuum. The moment they allowed the media to call the election, they made their job far more difficult — but not impossible. But the likelihood that the average person who doesn’t really think about politics might sit up and take notice of this coup is far more likely with the election called.

Or put another way, Barr thinks the difference between his victory with the Mueller Report and stealing the election is simply a matter of degree. That, at least, may be his thinking going into this. He has SCOTUS and he has the entire Republican Party. Having those two institutions going into a coup such as this puts him on safe enough ground that he will feel comfortable striking.

And, really, if there is any reaction to this coup, it’s the perfect excuse for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act. That would give him the legal ability to give the military orders that might otherwise be illegal.

All of that is just one of a variety of different possible coup scenarios. We also have the possibility that if they fail at certification, they directly attack the Electors on a personal level.

I have said for some time now that every step they fail to successfully attack or corrupt will lead TrumpBarr to grow more radical. Remember, TrumpBarr has the total support of just under 50% of the population. The same logic that allowed them to rush the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett is the same logic that will cause them to stage such a coup (or something like it.)

All I know is things could get violent. Really violent. We could have dueling presidents with equal claim to the right to tell the military what to do. There may be a secession crisis. Blue States, out of desperation may call up their own militias for the specific purpose of defending themselves from the U.S. Military. Or, the U.S. Military itself could, in fact, implode so they won’t even be able to make a decision.

What’s more, the U.S. Military is the backbone of the post World War 2 liberal order. If it buckles, then you could see a number of regional wars grow hot in something that might be marketed as World War 3.

I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. But all of this is something to think about. There’s no obvious endgame. This wouldn’t be a video game. Real people with real lives would die. And you thought COVID19 was bad, just wait until there’s absolutely no food at the grocery store because you live in a Blue State (or Red State) and you’re being blockaded.

Again, I hope I’m wrong. Trump is really incompetent, but he definitely seems to be waking up from the shock of losing the election. And, as we know, autocrats never lose.

It’s Comical How Badly House Trump Screwed Up By Not Striking Before The Election Was Called


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trumplandia, we have a problem. While we are now entering the most dangerous political crisis in American history since the fall of 1860, there is something of note we have to talk about: how badly House Trump screwed up by not striking before the election was called.

I have been ranting about how “autocrats never lose” and this is still the case. And it’s still the case that Trump is an autocrat and, by definition, will “not lose.”

And, yet, now that the election has been called there will be severe consequences for that “not losing.” Trump is going to try to use the bully pulpit of the presidency to do exactly what he could have done before the election was called — frame the post-election battle in a way that the average person won’t mind if he mysteriously “doesn’t lose” like all autocrats.

Now that the election has been called, the average person who doesn’t really pay that much attention to politics is going to be shocked when Trump stages a coup — whatever it may ultimately look like — to stay in power. It’s just not as easy for Maggie Haberman to explain Trump’s coup in hushed tones as a stroke of political genius after the election has been called.

But once the shock of political defeat wears off, Trump is probably going to come roaring back and attempt to use all his usual Stormy Daniels tricks to reframe the debate. Rudy will yell on CNN for an hour on a regular basis. The Right Wing bullshit echo chamber will attempt to bend the mainstream media to their will. You, know, the usual media narrative management that has been so successful for House Trump for five years.

And, yet, now that the political act of the election being called by the media has happened, if they try extra-political methods to stay in power — which they will — there’s going to be a civil war / revolution. But as can be seen in how Republicans handled the RBG SCOTUS opening — they really don’t give a fuck. They are so completely blinded by their MAGA ideology that they are oblivious to how they’re going to destroy the United States — or at least the First Republic — if they “catch the car” of keeping Trump in power.

The country is just too polarized right down the middle 50/50 for them to be able to pull it off now without a lot — A LOT — of people dying tragic, needless deaths. But, sadly, the more difficult it is for them to stage a coup, the more radical they will become. They’re going to grow so hysterical that that, in itself, may be what pushes us into a second civil war / second revolution.

MAGA is such a bunch of easily triggered snowflake crybabies that when the shoe is on the other foot, they’re going to what to blow shit up rather than face the cold, hard, fact that the dear leader is going to have to leave office. Given that Trump is probably going to grow more insane and hysterical himself as well, no good will come of any of this.

Our best case scenario right now is Trump attacks and corrupts every single step between now and January 20th and STILL can’t stay in office. Then he totally flips the fuck out and aggressively salts the earth on his way out, pardening dozens — if not hundreds — of his cronies. He fires everyone he hates — even if he can’t legally do so — and gets FBI director Rudy to frogwalk Biden in an attempt to protect his own sorry ass.

If all else fails, he pardons himself and flies AF1 to Pyongyang where he spends the rest of his life snorting coke off hookers’ assholes and telling Kim Jung Un all our secrets.

That’s our best case scenario.

Worse case scenario is Trump and MAGA single-handed force the issue and everyone has to take sides — even if they don’t want to. Then the United States’ First Republic collapses and we spend a few years killing each other.

There is no narrative. There is no value. We will imbue this particular avoidable tragedy with those elements after the fact in a desperate attempt to make ourselves feel better.