by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I only do this because, well, it is one of the two major existential choices America faces between now and January 2025, so I need to do it to help make my abstract civil war fears concrete.
From what I’ve seen of other people’s ideas of a modern American Civil War, a lot of people have a poor grasp of how one would actually happen. I’m kind of obsessed with history and so I have a pretty good grasp as to how things would actually happen.
The first misconception — found a lot within the bullshit MAGA New Right echo chamber — is the idea that good old boys, fed up with Cancel Culture and Critical Race Theory will rise up and overthrow the Deep State in Washington. While anything is possible, I’ve not seen any indication that good old boys drinking Miller Lite on the back porch of their cabin have the organization and gumption to do such a thing.
It’s all abstract bullshit they say to their friends to make themselves feel better because the idea of a MAGA “revolution” is the worst thing they can think of.
What’s more likely to happen is elected Republicans across the country will make a serious fucking miscalculation about what they can get away with in the lead up to Congress certifying the 2024 election results. They will bungle what would otherwise be a political history gimme — America’s peaceful decent into autocratic white Christian minority rule — and the bolts will finally pop off the Union.
And by bolts, I mean states.
So, it wouldn’t be good old boys taking things into their own hands, it would be establishment Republicans who, after weighing their options, decide to leave the Union on a State level (if they don’t get what they want.) Now, obviously, I think it would go down like THIS: it wouldn’t be Red States that left the union in 2025, it would be Blue States because the dead hand on history is very much moving in Red State favor.
As such, President Pompeo would “legally” be president, but the way he got that legality would be so dubious that Blue States would begin to leave the Union en masse and THAT would be the civil war. (The only way I see Red States leaving the Union would be something connected to the Cyber Ninjas “audit” in Arizona. That would be in the near term and would definitely benefit Team Blue for some very specific reasons.
But I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Republicans are craven and bloodthirsty — and so absolutely fear the abstracts of Cancel Culture and Critical Race Theory — that they will either nullify any Biden win or they’ll fuck with Electors in such a way that no one reaches 270 and the election is thrown into the House (President) and Senate (Veep.) This latter option would take the situation in 2000 to the next level and the same arguments would be made — we’re a republic, not a democracy, lib and what happened was constitutional so shut up.
But it’s possible that they’ll bungle this and Blue States will leave the Union.
Then what?
It all comes down to California. If California joins the Blue States then they have a fighting chance of defeating the forces of Trumplandia USA. If the state simply sees the crisis as an opportunity to gain its independence, things get pretty dark pretty quick.
Not that any modern civil war wouldn’t be dark. I don’t think the fucking idiots who want to experience the glory of a Second American Civil War appreciate how bad the whole thing would suck.
First and foremost, it’s inevitable that WMD would be used by both sides. And the two sides would radicalize as the forces of war began to do their thing. Also, there is a good chance that no matter which side leaves the Union there would be a race war in the South.
You can stroke one out all you want to the idea of having the opportunity to, at last, show dem dar libtards what you really think about them, but the Southern African American community simply is NOT going to brook the “rising again” of the white South. Significant violence would break out throughout the South to the point that all those fucking MAGA New Right people who were so giddy at the idea of a civil war will live to regret it.
There is one potential solution to this impending clusterfuck and that would be that the U.S. Military stepped in an absolutely last ditch effort to keep the Union together. We could endup with an acting President Jim Mattis who would serve as part of a junta just long enough for passions to cool down and maybe some sort of fair and equitable Constitutional Convention to be held.
But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
If we did somehow find ourselves in a civil war, the entire post-WW2 liberal global framework would collapse and there would be WW3 while we were preoccupied. A few billion could die from starvation after India and Pakistan zap each other and cause a mini nuclear winter. UGH.
And the MAGA New Right WANTS that? What is wrong with those people.
A modern American civil war would be bloody, tragic, avoidable and horrific. It would likely rearrange the borders of North America (Goodbye Canada!) and no matter who won millions of Americans could up and leave the country just because they were mad their side didn’t win.
Welcome to the 21st Century?
