by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It just occurred me today why there might be a Second American Civil War starting sometime around Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025: the same reason why the First Civil War happened.
The First Civil War happened because Slave Power got so wrapped up its own paranoia that they felt that their age-old “right” to own other people would be put in jeopardy no matter what once the Republican Abraham Lincoln became POTUS.
Ok, flash forward to 2024 – 2025 and what is going on — Blue States have every right to believe that the newly re-elected Trump will actively abridge various hard-earned rights no matter what they do. Add to this how brazen Trump was in stealing the 2024 election via Bannon’s corruption of the administration of elections and you have a recipe for a Second American Civil War.
And, despite Barbara F. Walter’s insistence that it will be Reds who start a “Troubles” like civil war, it will be a Civil War based on states. If a Second American Civil War does happen, it’s likely to begin with California leaving the Union, which will spark a cascading series of events that will cause sister Blue States to leave the Union as well.
Or at least try to.
This is where things get murky in my future history — what happens with the U.S. Military?
The officer corp of the U.S. Military will be extremely empathetic to the alarm of the Blue States, but as an institution, the U.S. Military will never brook Blue States breaking the law and leaving the Union.
So, I don’t know.
Either there’s some sort of last-ditch military coup in hopes of keeping the country together long enough for a Constitutional Convention (Hello, acting President James Mattis) or we see something even more fucked up — even the U.S. Military buckles. This would involve, just like with the original Civil War, people who supported the Blue States joining the military of the Blue American Republic.
Now, there’s something to keep in the back of your mind about all of this — with the United States pre-occupied with a Second American Civil War, there would likely be a WW3.
A series of regional wars would flare up for no other reason than the United States simply couldn’t do anything about them. So, you would see the DPRK attack South Korea. India and Pakistan blow each other up. Israel and Iran blow each other up. And God only knows what Russia might think up.
And if things got as bad as I fear, you would have NATO nations supporting Blue States in an active way, just like the West is now supporting Ukraine.
A Second American Civil War would not be an overnight affair, either. It would likely last for the rest of the decade. And, what’s more, there would be no assurances that there would even be a nice and tidy endgame to any of it.
The United States could simply balkanize into a post-civil war hellscape, with Trumplandia’s radicalized government murdering POC in numbers not seen since WW2.
But, as I keep saying, I may be overthinking all of this.
We could, in fact, simply slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy.
You have a few years. Get a passport.
