A house divided against itself cannot stand. I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing, or all the other. — Abraham Lincoln
by Shelt Garner
The above quote from Lincoln sums up my current view on the fate of the United States between now and January 2025. The difference between the two sides has grown so extreme that we’re either going to entirely MAGA or we have a civil war that leads to the destruction of one of the two sides and we’re unified that way.
Though, I have to note that it’s very unlikely that in this modern world that any Second American Civil War would have an ending as pat as the first. What’s more likely to happen if there is a 2ACW is a permanent division of the United States into, say, the United States of Canada and Trumplandia.
I say this because of what the war aims of the Blue States would be — simply to leave the Union and not have to worry about living under the MAGA jackboot. It would be MAGA that would want to control the entire territory of the United States. So, in a sense, the dynamic of the First American Civil War would be switched with the center-Left simply wanting to leave the Union while the center-Right wanting to keep the Union together.
But a lot would depend what type of leadership bubbled up to the surface as we progressed towards making our final decision of autocracy or civil war. I still think that the “radical moderates” of the #NeverTrumper movement will be the leadership of Blue States. I mean, Goddamn, is Liz Cheney the type of Margaret Thatcher type leader that Blue States would need should the shit hit the fan.
The Red States, meanwhile, have a shit ton of leaders to draw upon. I can think of a dozen really strong MAGA Republicans who could populate the leadership of the rump USA should there be a secession crisis that leads to a civil war. But one thing is clear — if you think there can be a peaceful National Divorce, you’re a fool or full of shit.
Any “national divorce” would, by definition, be extremely violent and involve weapons of mass destruction.
Anyway, the point is — things are very unstable in the United States right now. Things could go either way. We could simply shrug and become a Russian-style autocracy, or we could have a violent “national divorce” that will directly and indirectly lead to the death of millions.