by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It definitely feels like we’re in the montage leading up to the United States either turning into a full-blown autocracy or…having a “National Divorce,” and, as such a civil war. To me, it’s clear that should there be a National Divorce, it will be Blue, not Red, states that serve the papers. Reds are ascendant and they’re getting everything they could possibly want through a combination of politics and a corrupt SCOTUS.
But, let’s suppose a civil war happens and Blues are successful in their war aims of leaving the Union and establishing an independent Blue United States. What would this strange new world look like?
The key thing to ponder is — which side got which states? There are a number of states that have a real difference between the governed and the government. The upper old midwest, “the Rust Belt,” is a prime example of this .There are a number of states there that would probably be flash points for a civil war. I mean, Michigan almost had a coup in 2020 and we were no where near to a civil war like we may be in 2024. And that doesn’t begin to address places like Texas which are politically shifting Blue in a macro way but are being held back by the autocratic politics of the Texas Republican Party. And, what’s more, states like Virginia are two states, one Red, one Blue, fused together who hate each other and would probably be the site of significant bloodshed if a National Divorce happend.
But, let’s imagine a time 10 years from now when all that is sorted out. After a violent collapse of the country, we have two nations where the United States once stood — the rump state of Trumplandia (USA) and some sort of Blue State, maybe the United States of Canada? What would life be like there?
On paper, the United States of Canada in 2032 would be a prosperous, forward looking nation. It would be a part of NATO and would be a part of whatever New World Order was established after the entire world went tits up during WW3 that happend as a result of the Second American Civil War. The USC Constitution would likely be much like Trumplandia’s but for things like the ERA being in it as well as the abolition of the Electoral College. There might be something akin to National Service. Abortion rights would be protected. Plutocrats would be expected to pay their fair share and there might have been an overall reform of the tax system. In fact, a whole host of much-needed reforms would likely have been enacted in the USC — including a rewriting or elimination of the 2nd Amendment.
I could see on July 4th, 2032 that one of the biggest issues facing the USC would be immigration — from Trumplandia. Or, even worse, the could be a lot of concern about the fate of African Americans in the Deep South as Trumplandia grows more racist and radical on the issue of race. It could get so bad, in fact, that either there’s something akin to a race war in the Deep South that would cause the conflict between the USC and the USA to linger, or millions of African Americans would be forced to emigrate to the USC.
One interesting thing is where all the useless Twitter liberals would be. Would they be still be smug in their big cities or when they left the country to its own devices during the National Divorce, did they say in the south of France to drink white Russians and smell their own farts? I think by 2032 they would have returned, still as useless as ever.
Once the USC got rid of the Electoral College, the Democratic Party would devolve into its component parts and there might even be an actual Social Democrat Party that was a serious contender. It’s possible that there might also be a Green Party that would force the other main parties to take global climate change even more seriously than they already were.
Meanwhile, in Trumplandia, things would be getting very dark indeed. Without any counterweight from Blue States, the USA would become very inward looking and the worse tendencies of MAGA would become enshrined in law. In fact, as I mentioned, things would suck so bad that Trumplandia’s large African American population might revolt on a regular basis, leading to renewed conflict between Blue and Red. I don’t think we give this element of the clusterfuck that would be a National Divorce enough thought.
Trumplandia would align with other autocracies like Russia, Turkey and Hungary. As I mentioned — any world where the United States has been split into two would be dramatically different because the transition would be very violent and very disruptive. A few billion people could have died in WW3 because of starvation caused by a few regional wars going nuclear.
And, of course, there is a real chance that WMD would have been used by both Blue and Red as part of any National Divorce and, as such, both the USC and the USA in 2032 would be recovering from that massive destruction.
Because of the issue of race, specifically in the Deep South, I fear any National Divorce would not be nearly as clean cut as either side would prefer. In fact, it’s even possible that during any Second American Civil War, Blue war aims could drift from simple independence to reuniting the country into something closer to the United States of North America.
It would be horrific. Millions would die. If it became an apocalyptic rock fight to the end between Blue and Red to see who got the USA “brand” then all bets are off. It could be that the United States could go from the wealthiest, most powerful nation in the world to something closer to modern day Afghanistan. It could take generations for the USNA to fully recover from such a colossal clusterfuck.
But one thing is for sure — in 2032 we either celebrate as Red and Blue, or we celebrate as an autocratic MAGA Trumplandia over the entire country. There is no middle ground. Something’s gotta give. Get ready. Pick a side, or a side will be chosen for you.
