by Shelt Garner
Some scenarios for the day after tomorrow:
- Trump Loses — gives up
It’s a real possibility that all the wet dreams of earnest, well meaning liberals like Mueller, She Wrote will come true and lulz, not only does Trump lose, but he just gives up. The “Good Guys” win and that’s it. We punt our structural problems down the road another four years.
- Trump Loses — demands a National Divorce
In this scenario, Trump loses, but instead of just slinking away, he frantically demands a National Divorce. A lot — A LOT — would depend on, say, Texas in this scenario. There is a greater-than-zero chance that Texas could very well call up a Secessionist Convention if Trump demanded a National Divorce. This would, in turn, cause a civil war.
- Too Close to call (1876 / 2000 endgame)
If this happens, then, holy shit are we in trouble. The country would collapse into civil war and revolution. If we just didn’t know who the next president was going to be…whoa buddy. Chaos. Violence. Collapse. Fourth Turning.
- Biden Loses — It’s a Lulz
If Biden loses and 1 million smug Twitter liberals leave the country ASAP, then, lulz, we turn into an autocracy and that’s that. We wake up in a few years and President-for-Life Trump is invading Canada for some dumb reason.
- Biden Loses — Glorious Revolution
In this scenario, Trump wins but goes full Tyrant in such a way that Blues stand their ground and organize things like a General Strike and or a Women’s Strike. The U.S. Military, rather than being Trump’s SA goons, stands down and maybe uses the guise of the 14th Amendment to overthrow Trump and we have President James Mattis for a few months until a Constitutional Convention can be called up.
- The 1872 Election Endgame
Look it up. It’s bad
Oh boy. Now that it is clear to me that Trump is so fucking stupid that he wants he thinks he can get away with imposing an actual military dictatorship on the United States…yikes.
It would take a next level amount of stupidity on his part to try to do such a thing. But here we are, with the idea that that is exactly what Trump might try to do. Any other Republican and I would tell you to prepare for a garden variety autocracy.
But Trump’s fascination with the Insurrection Act is very, very troubling. If he actually tries to establish a military dictatorship because his abstract thinking ability is too weak to think of the power plays of an autocrat, we are all in A LOT of trouble.
And, yet, as I keep saying, I can’t fucking predict the future. There are plenty — plenty — of known unknowns that might allow us to punt all of our structural problems down the road. But if Trump goes full tyrant not as an autocrat, but as a would-be military dictator…you got me.
There just would be no viable endgame.
We would be going beyond just “bad optics” to the type of tyrannical behavior that might even make Traditionalists who just want brown children in cages again….to sit up and take notice.
Radical Moderates are found in William Safire’s novel “Freedom.”
If that were to happen, then a group of people not seen since the American Civil War might appear in American politics — Radical Moderates. These are people who are usually Traditionalists, but, for a very brief amount of time are willing to adopt otherwise radical measures because of tectonic forces of political history.
But maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe Trump will lose. Or something. We still have a year of stewing in our political juices to find out one way or another.