by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The case could be made that but for how racism and misogyny are warping American political life, Trump would lose in a rather historic manner. Trump is just a bad candidate.
But the thing you have to accept, though, is because of the MAGA permission structure created by Fox News, et al, is that even though Trump is a weak candidate on a persona level — he could still win.
That’s why it’s so difficult for me to game out what might happen later this year. And that doesn’t even begin to address the very real possibility of a Black Swan event that will throw everything in the air.
So, there are two different forces at work. There are the macro forces that continue to give Trump the Idea momentum and there are the tactical problems with Trump that make him a very, very weak candidate. As such, I dunno. It could go either way.
And, what’s more, there is a real possibility that no matter what happens there could be severe political violence in late 2024, early 2025 because either Trump loses and there’s a civil war or he wins and he causes a Blue Revolution.
So…pray?
