by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I have pontificated so much on the possibility of a civil war or revolution to the point that it’s kind of silly for me to talk about it. But, let’s do it anyway.
I just don’t think there will be a civil war in the United States in 2026. Americans are not French and, as such, they are very, very docile. It takes a lot — A LOT — to rile them up.
The only possible way I could maybe, just maybe see a civil war (or revolution) in the USA this year is if Trump actively fucked with the 2026 midterms to the point that he invoked the Insurrection Act or even declared martial law. If he declared martial law and tried to actually cancel the 2026 midterms, then, yes, we will have a civil war in the second half of this year.
But, otherwise, I just don’t see it.
Now, while we’re on the subject, I do think that if Trump ran for an illegal third term in 2028, then, yeah, that would cause a civil war or revolution. Big time. But, at the same time, I think Trump’s personal historical reason to exist on a macro basis is to destroy the existing Constitutional order to the point that we may have to convene a Constitutional Convention to fix things once he finally, finally leaves the stage.
But all of that is very, very speculative.
I will note that I have long thought that if there’s a civil war, it will because Blues have had enough, not because of Reds — why would Reds want a civil war, they’re politically ascendant.
Anyway, I can’t predict the future.
