Author: Shelton Bumgarner

I am the Editor & Publisher of The Trumplandia Report

Historical Determinism Suggests The United States Is Fucked One Way Or Another


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is fucked. In the future, the events that led to Biden winning the presidency may be seen as having huge significance on the broad sweep of political history. The reason is — but for Biden winning in 2020, the United States was well on its way to becoming an autocracy. What would have likely happened is Trump wouldn’t have made it through his second term — he is old as fuck, you know — and after a caretaker Pence administration a real American autocrat would have taken power.

Or, put another way, at some point in his second term, Trump would have demanded a Constitutional Convention and would have been allowed to run for a third term. It would actually be his THIRD term that he wouldn’t make it through and Trump’s new veep Mike Flynn (or whomever) would be the one to seize “total control” and turn the United States into Trumplandia.

But none of that happened.

So, as I keep saying, the United States right now is an autocracy without an autocrat. All the conditions are there for an autocracy, but Biden is a pretty modern, norm-following president so he doesn’t flip a switch and get ICE to push me out of a window.

But this idyllic political situation isn’t going to last forever. There’s going to come a point where we face an existential choice of civil war or autocracy. When Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley inevitably becomes president and we have one last gasp of traditional democracy in America do we “bow before lord Zod” or do we have a civil war?

For the moment, I think we’re just going to drift peacefully into autocracy. When it happens, a lot of thought leaders on the Left are going to scream bloody murder, but the average person won’t even notice any change in their every day life. Then, in fits an starts, it will become conventional wisdom that you have to be careful what you say or you’ll get snatched by ICE. Or whatever.

Within a generation, the United States will be a nation of “blood and soil” and Good Americans will keep their heads down and enjoy the tax cuts and really fucking conservative Federal bench that ensures that they will never, ever be “canceled.”

I think this because any kind of civil war in the United States would be so scary and horrific that the Powers That Be have every reason to just tell everyone to accept the New Normal of living in an autocracy. It would require MAGA somehow bungling the transition to autocracy for any civil war to happen.

I could see, maybe, this transition bungle happening sooner rather than later if Trump flips out should Cyber Ninjas “prove” he “won” Arizona. That might cause a mini-civil war that is quickly ended because, lulz, MAGA will have struck too soon.

Anyway. What do I know.

Mulling Places To Take My Writer’s Retreat



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s July 4th weekend and I have four novel outlines to flesh out before I start writing again sometime early next week. I like to take the occasional personal writer’s retreat to distract myself while I try to figure out major problems with the novel(s) I’m working on. Here are my options at the moment.

New York City
This would be ideal, but it’s just not practical to do very often given where I am right now. I can still do it, but it’s a serious pain in the butt. So, no.
Charlottesville
I go to this option all the time and I’m looking for somewhere different. I actually have a bit extra money than usual — but less time — so it’s unlikely I’ll go to this option.
Washington, DC
This may be the sweetspot option because it’s not too far, it’s interesting and I can probably afford just one night. I don’t know how much I want to go through all that traffic — especially on July 4th weekend — so, I don’t know. All I’m going to do is just chill out for about 24 hours. I would prefer to just find somewhere quiet, low stress and stare at the ceiling for a few hours while I have a slight buzz.
Myrtle Beach
This would be cool. It’s the perfect distance and probably would be fairly low stress, but given that it’s the July 4th weekend, it’s probably extremely expensive and / or sold out for the weekend, anyway.
Somewhere Vaguely West Of Me
It would be fun, on an abstract basis, to just head west and see what happened. But, in all honesty, there isn’t a lot going on west of me, at least until I run into another state.
Somewhere Vaguely South Of Me
This is appealing. There are a number of smaller places south of me that might fit my needs — cheap, nearby and low stress.

I still don’t know what I’m going to do.

The Curious Appeal Of Joe Rogan


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ah, Joe Rogan. The thing about Rogan is how he’s a representation of the hypermodern media landscape. Rogan believes he can say anything as long as he hides behind his earnest masculinity. He’s appealing to a lot of young men who feel unrepresented and disenfranchise.

For the most part he, himself, is harmless. He’s a decent interviewer and I do find him often interesting in what he has to say. But. And there’s a big but, there’s a meta element to his popularity that is downright sinister. And that meta element is he is a gateway to the Alt Right and Incel movements in the sense that a lot of young men start the path to radicalization by watching his show.

It’s not really Rogan’s fault that this is the case. And if the United States wasn’t tearing itself a part at the moment, the whole thing would be a lulz. What I find the most irritating about Rogan is often frames his arguments in such a way that you feel like an idiot if you don’t agree with what are essentially alt-Right talking points.

Thankfully, Rogan has no (apparent) desire to run for office. He, like Tucker Carlson have all the makings of a popular modern politician. The larger point is our democracy is undead. The era we live in is the last gasp of traditional American democracy before we either turn into an autocracy or we have a civil war.

There are no easy answers.

America’s Politics: A Status Check


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Some rando on Twitter told me to “calm down” today after I said my usual thing about how America faces the choice of autocracy or civil war in the near, near term.

Let’s do a back of the envelope status check on American politics. I’m not getting paid to do this and the people of VOX think I’m a crank, so lulz, you get what you pay for.

What makes doing this so difficult is, while in general terms I know we’re fucked, those fears a pretty much abstract. Going forward, it’s difficult to figure out what is important and what isn’t. But let’s have a go.

The first thing that comes to the forefront of my mind is the Republican Party is now fascist. It has been completely consumed by the rancid populism of MAGA. The Republican Party is dead and now is the Trump Party in everything but name. It has no ideology other than what whatever Trump wants at any particular moment.

As such, the question is, will it be Trump or one of his would-be successors who push us to the breaking point where we face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. For the time being, Trump is in complete control of the Republican Party and any success or failure the party has in its objectives will be the direct result of Trump’s personal ability to achieve those goals. So, it’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump being lazy and stupid is handed power AGAIN through some sort of nullification crisis in January 2025 and he’s just too stupid to shepherd the country peacefully through what would otherwise be an inevitable transition to autocracy.

So, we have a civil war and bomb each other into oblivion because MAGA can’t bear to even think of the word “liberal.” Who wins in that situation, I have no idea.

If it’s not Trump, but someone like Tom Cotton, Mike Pompeo or Josh Hawley, then I doubt we’ll have a civil war because they’re politically adept enough to avoid one. The media will be purged, ICE’s camp infrastructure weaponized and I get pushed out a window because I refuse to fucking shut up about how much I fucking hate MAGA.

There are other things floating around our undead political system that are unnerving. The glorification of political violence by MAGA along with the rise of paramilitary groups is not exactly the sign of a healthy political system. The interesting thing about this is Trump — to date — hasn’t had the guts to go transactional. So, in that regard, Trump is definitely no Hitler. What Trump loves to do is dog whistle violent acts that he would like, but he simply has never been direct about it.

But if, say, Cyber Ninjas gets his hopes up by “proving” he “won” Arizona, that might change. He might go transactional and tell MAGA’s paramilitary arm to start doing specific things to facilitate his “reinstatement.” Or not. It’s possible he’ll continue to be a big old wussy (on a political basis.)

Yet, the issue is, what does this mean going forward? Do I need to “calm down” or am I right that we face an existential choice of autocracy or civil war at some point between now and January 2025.

Nothing is set in stone, however. It’s possible that we’ll drift into some sort of “lite touch” autocracy where it’s just Conventional Wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if Democrats also control Congress. Liberals will vent in the media while MAGA welds hard power and that will be that for a few cycles until someone like President Mike Pompeo finally has had enough and goes full autocrat because there’s no one to stop him anymore.

2012: The Year Everything Changed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be that there were all these predictions about how the Mayan calendar predicted the End Of The World in 2012 for some reason. Well, that obviously didn’t happen, but something did happen – 2012 was the year that white people in America began to reach a tipping point with their abstract fears about the changing nature of the country.

So, let’s think about what, exactly, happened in 2012 that caused the political hellscape that we currently enjoy. The most obvious thing is, duh, Obama won a second term. And I think the reason why there was a cascading effect from that event was a lot of Republicans thought Obama was some sort of political fluke caused by the perfect timing of the Great Recession right before the 2008 election.

When it became clear that Obama was actually the first wave of what everyone knew was coming — the advent of America being a minority majority nation, a lot of white people freaked the fuck out. It was the 2012 election that was the last election where Republicans were willing to work within the democratic norms that we all have come to enjoy for the last 240 odd years.

Something about what happened in Obama’s second term facilitated the rise of Trump, MAGA and the Republican Party becoming fascist. It was the high speed social transformation of Obama’s second term that really caused the Republican Party to pretty much be accurately represented by Trump.

If I was, like, smart and stuff, I would be able to give you a itemized deep dive of the specific events that caused conservative white people to freak out and fall into the arms of ding-dong Trump. But, I’m not that smart — and, as such, will never write for VOX, natch.

But it is curious. I think what may have happened is at some point between 2012 and 2016 Republicans realized they had lost the culture wars and, as such, they had to strike back with someone who was a “fighter.” After that happened, the rest took care of itself. Trump was a deranged lunatic, but the Establishment eventually realized he was not only hugely popular with the base, but he could win the 2016 election. So they lulzed everything for young hack MAGA judges and a plutocrat tax cut.

I love alternative history, so I often struggle to think up a way whereby we could have avoided the rise of MAGA and Trump. All I can think up is Al Gore winning the 2000 election. Even then, Obama is such a singular figure in our nation’s political history that it’s easy to imagine him winning anyway and causing MAGA to arise in response.

If you read the book The Fourth Turning, you would say that Someone Like Trump was going to pop up at some point between 2016 and, say, 2024. The demographic trends were going to cause someone like Obama to get elected and then, in turn, someone like Trump would get elected in reaction.

One last thing I think we don’t really appricate is how the introduction of the iPhone may have also sealed our fate. Once social media was no longer tied to our PCs, then things like “cancel culture” and the mainlining of things once seen as freaky was going to happen one way or another.

Anyway, the ultimate end game of this clusterfuck is a complete mystery to me. I have no idea what happens. I do know, however, that we’re going to face a choice of either MAGA autocracy or a civil war. Which one we will pick, I don’t know for the time being.

Mulling Having Working On A Screenplay As A Side Project


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m quite content with the four novels I’m working on. And, yet, I still find myself creatively restless. It would be fun to have the side project of a Hollywood screenplay to tinker on if I ever get too frustrated with this huge series I’m working on.

But there are problems. A lot of them.

One, I would risk simply throwing myself into a whole different writing endeavor after three years of working on novels. Second, I would have to invest in book and software for this whole new thing. And, third, I would be starting at even below the current level of likelihood of actually being a success than I am now with these novels. It’s not like I live anywhere near LA, after all.

So, I think I’m going to wait until I reach some major milestone with these four novels I’m working on — maybe four first drafts?

But all this thinking about doing something interesting indicates I need to really start reading books that I haven’t read before and watchin TV shows and movies I’ve never seen. Something, anything to distract myself from the over all project I’m working on at the moment.

My Decision To Develop & Write Four Novels Instead of Two Is Working Out Well


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

They key reason why my decision to double the books in this initial group of novels has worked out so well is it allows me to do something different when the mood strikes and still stay in-universe.

I have all these great, great ideas rolling around in my mind these days and now I have an outlet to do something different while moving the overall project I’ve been working on for the last few years forward.

One thing that’s interesting is the prequels allow me to figure out how to tell a story that isn’t completely fueled by my white hot, center-of-the-sun rage against MAGA. These two prequel stories are a lot more character driven and very personal.

Anyway, I have a massive amount of work ahead of me. I feel a lot more need to just write something, anything sooner rather than later — when I finish the outlines to these four novels.

That should happen pretty soon, at least on a preliminary basis. I’m shooting for the end of July 4th weekend.

The NSA Reading Your Emails Is So Cheugy, Tucker — You Need To Rant About Big Tech Reading Our Minds


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When it comes to the idea that Big Tech can “read our minds,” I think of what we know and don’t know about UFOs right now. We know something weird is going on in our skies, but we don’t know what. The same with my unease about any possibility of Big Tech to read my mind. I know they have a very, very spooky ability to know extremely-specific-to-me things that have be rolling around in my mind, but I don’t know how.

So, if Tucker Carlson is going to lie about cheugy shit like the NSA reading his emails, of all things, at least he could up his game and lie about Big Tech being able to read our minds. That would make the Deep State sit up and take notice, now wouldn’t it. Wink.

I’ll even go on Tucker’s show to talk about my fears. Now THAT would be interesting. I promise I won’t say “babba booy” once. Of course, there’s a very easy way to check this out — have three different people use Tik-Tok, for a few hours, then switch phones and have them think about something REALLY HARD to see if they get pushed content relative to what they thought about.

But, let me be clear — I don’t really think Big Tech can read our minds. I do think, however, that something spooky is going on that is difficult to understand given what is known. I would even go so far as to say something akin to a “Soft Singularity” may have occurred in the last few years and Big Tech is keeping this information to themselves.

Lulz no one listens to me.

Oh My God, What The Fuck Happened To Chvrches?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, there I was, thinking of my old favorite, Chvrches. I pulled them up on Spotify, thinking they were still doing their really unique synth-pop-rock brand of music.

The first, most recent, song of theirs I listened to left me cold, to say the least. It was very much pretty much standard Modern Music. Apparently, the song in question, Here With Me, was a huge hit for them. Surreal.

So, I guess pour one out (again) for good music.

Axis Of Red Pill Derp — Joe Rogan Interviews Quentin Tarantino


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a huge Tarantino fan. I think he’s one of the last great auteurs out there, but he can also sometimes be tone deft when it comes to cultural issues. I haven’t watched all of his interview with Alt Right Lite hero Joe Rogan, but what I have seen is very interesting.

As expected, there was a lot of Red Pill derp going on between these two guys. I don’t think the average person appreciates how a huge swath of the young adult male population has grown alienated from the existing media narrative. In fact, on YouTube, there’s an entire on-boarding system designed to hook such individuals into getting “Red Pilled.”

So, while in Tarantino’s mind, he was just dropping truth bombs in the context of how he’s one of the last great Hollywood directors, a lot of young men see his interview as validation for their “women and minorities control everything” narrative.

Thing about all of this that is so aggravating is how difficult it is to pin down in concrete terms what things like “cancel culture” even mean. One person’s “cancel culture” is another person’s “well, we live in a new age where audiences really aren’t as accepting of the gratuitous sex and violence that Tarantino is know for.”

Red Pilled young men are a lot like most MAGA people — they are spooked by abstract changes in modern American society. Both groups can’t really articulate what bothers them, they just know they hate liberals. Red Pilled young men hate things like Kathleen Kennedy and love the earnest masculinity of Joe Rogan.

A lot of the problems in American culture are so nebulous and abstract and yet so powerful that they’re even more intractable than they would be otherwise. As such, I suspect they’re only going to be solved when the United States finally becomes a MAGA autocracy — or we have a civil war.

Either way, a lot of difficult-to-pin-down fears that people on both the center-Right and center-Left may have will become very, very moot.