No one is going to save us. But there is a real possibility that the Congress’ January 6th investigation into the Trump’s involvement in the conspiracy surrounding that day might but a dent in his political viability.
But before you get too excited, let me explain.
First, but for the fact that we’re an anocracy and not a democracy, Trump would be already be a washed up has been. But we’re an anocracy where MAGA has absolute fidelity to their Dear Leader, Trump. But there is a small-ish chance that if Congress can prove Trump’s personal involvement with what happened on January 6th that the 100,000 or so people across 5 battle ground states that decide elections might no longer be convinced to vote for him.
And, yet, Trump is such a vessel for all the rot within the core of American politics and that that could be a lulz.
I read the new Watergate history and the same dynamic that happened with the investigation into the that conspiracy is at play with the January 6th conspiracy. There is a very compelling narrative and people who might not otherwise be all that interested in it — some of them are that are the 100,00 people who decide elections — that in the end, someone like DeSantis might swoop in and eat Trump’s political lunch.
But, remember, DeSantis would be a far more effective autocrat than Trump ever could be. The Republican Party is fascist now and, by definition, hates democracy and wants (openly) white autocratic minority rule. The Traditionalists in my family tell me point blank: America is not a democracy and fuck you, lib.
This is very unnerving, to say the least. That people I am related to don’t believe in democracy and don’t realize what they’re saying — they’re putting my life in jeopardy long term because if America becomes an autocracy there’s no way I don’t endup crossing our new autocratic regime because I’m a loud mouth crank who will eventually get drunk and in a public fashion tell President DeSantis to fuck off.
And, yet, MAGA is such a cancer that even if we cauterize the Trump wound, we still have to deal with it. And it would just be a question of who our autocrat is going to be. If it’s not Trump then it’s DeSantis. If it’s not DeSantis then….it could be anyone of a dozen other Republicans who see a life president in the mirror when they shave in the morning.
Remember two key things — one, there is a greater than zero sum chance that all of this is negated and we have a civil war instead and two, Trump could screw DeSantis over by picking someone like Mike Flynn as his veep should he continue to be politically viable after the results of the January 6 committee.
Anyway, once Roe is overturned, we’re going to have our first sense of what’s going to happen next. If there is any real violence in the streets because of that, then the chance that we’re going to have a civil war instead of an autocracy increases. But if nothing happens…we’re probably going to just slouch into autocracy.
So, I saw this on Twitter today and was immediately taken aback because now “normal” people are beginning to contemplate what I have for some time now: Trump is a transitional figure that will either cause a civil war or give us our first true autocrat.
I’m not saying this will happen, but if Rupert Murdoch decides to abandon Donald Trump that’s going to be a major opportunity for someone else in the GOP (desantis?) who could be theoretically even worse. Hard to imagine but this could end up being a nightmare scenario
The point is, as I’ve repeatedly written and otherwise ranted about, Trump is too stupid and lazy to be an autocrat. He’s all talk. Yes, should he become POTUS again in 2025, he will cause a lot of trouble and problems, but, in the end, it will probably be his Republican successor who is the real death knell for American democracy.
And, remember, Trump could very well just as start a civil war by being himself and “saying the quiet part outloud” as he could do anything else. In fact, I would say that’s the bigger Trump risk at the moment — he starts a civil war in 2024 – 2025 and we endup with some sort of National Divorce. (This could happen even sooner if Trump becomes Speaker in 2023 and he goes transactional on Truth Social, demanding Red states leave the Union in a ploy to pressure the Senate to convict Biden and Harris when they’re impeached.)
But back to the point — Trump doesn’t really matter anymore. DeSantis is the most obvious person to be our first American Autocrat, there are literally a dozen other would-be autocrats within the Republican ranks, waiting for their opportunity to do what Trump is too stupid and too lazy to do — end American democracy.
This is it. Within a few days Roe will be officially overturned and we’ll get our first sense of if we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy or if we’re going to have a “national divorce” of some sort.
I still honestly don’t know which one it will be.
A lot depends on California. If the theft of the 2024 election by MAGA Republicans is just too much for California and they decide to secede, then we’re going to the show. But, at the same time, it’s possible that there just isn’t the leadership within Blue States for there to be any sort of “national divorce.” The New Slave Power of MAGA will finally put its knee on the neck of Blue States and that will be that.
I don’t want any violence — I certainly don’t want a civil war — but we have to accept that 2020 might be looked back upon as the last free and fair election in our history. Or, at least, the last one in modern antebellum America.
I have no idea what is going to happen. Things could go either way. But enjoy these last few days of peace and “normal” American life while you can.
If there is a Truth And Reconciliation Commission in post-Second American Civil War America, among the people who will be brought before it by the victorious Blues will be Matt Schlapp.
He has got to be the absolute worst of “people who should know better.” He’s the leader of CPAC which is a bunch of fascists who want white minority rule in the United States. His dream is my nightmare, etc. But there’s no ready answer or solution to this particular problem.
Schlapp and CPAC are very organized and popular on the not-so-far-Right. They are mostly a group — as I understand it — of well heeled white people who aghast at the demographic changes in America and they see the “Great Awoking” as an opportunity to lean into the idea that the United States is a Constitutional Republic not a democracy.
And, well, they’re also fascists.
Should we slip peacefully into autocracy instead of have any sort of “national divorce” I could see Schlapp eventually having a very high level and conspicuous role in the new regime.
All I know is — Schlapp represents everything I hate in the Republican Party at the moment.
Mike Pence is a coward. There is no excuse for him not to testify as to what he knows to the Congressional January 6th Committee. He has the means, motive and opportunity to change history by becoming the John Dean of the Trump Era.
And, yet, here we are.
What are Pence’s options?
If he doesn’t change sides, he’s always going to be a hasbeen. He’s going to simply drift into political nothingness. He is never going to become president unless he does something truly dramatic and drastic. And the only thing I can think of for him to do is to testify at length about what he knows about Trump and MAGA.
I mean, at the core of MAGA now is the rage directed at Mike “Hang Mike Pence” Pence that he would not do the autocratic thing and hand the 2020 election to Trump despite everything.
Why would Pence want to even want to be a part of a movement that literally wants him dead? And, let me be clear — Liz Cheney has not had to change one policy belief other than turn on MAGA and people are beginning to talk about her as a presidential candidate.
So, it’s within the realm of possibility that all Mike Pence has to do is become the John Dean of MAGA and he would be thrown back into the ring as a possible POTUS — just not as a Republican. Or, if he is a Republican still, he would be as part of a Unity Ticket — maybe with AOC as his veep?
Anyway, in a way, Pence’s situation is untenable if he wants to be a viable POTUS candidate. The question is, will he get woke in time or not — for him and for us.
It seems to me that the only unknown aspect of how American democracy dies is if it happens peacefully or violently. But how, exactly, would it happen? It would happen something like this — if we do manage to get past the weakest part of the whole situation which would be the transition from anocracy to autocracy.
It would happen rather subtly.
It would just become conventional wisdom that a Democrat can’t become president unless Democrats not just control the House and Senate but they control the actual number of delegations to the House. The thing that makes all of this possible is aggressive gerrymandering and voter suppression.
And, according to the conservative Traditionalists in my life, they specifically believe that the United States is not a democracy and they will support whatever is necessary to establish white (autocratic) minority rule. How do you shame people for not believing in democracy when they tell you point blank that they don’t believe in democracy?
The only question is — do we transition into autocracy peacefully or do we have a “national divorce” with the Red States getting their autocracy via some sort of Trumplandia and Blue States getting, I don’t know, some sort of United States of Canada?
At the moment, I think it will all happen peacefully. People will just give up on voting and because things won’t really change at first, lulz, what was the question? But there is, a greater than zero sum possibility that there really will be some sort of “national divorce” instead of the entirety of the United States slipping into autocracy.
But only time will tell. I can’t predict the future.
The issue is not that the January 6th hearings won’t be compelling or that they won’t lay out what happened in a cogent manner, they will. The problem is 38% of the population supports fascism and, as such, they won’t care what it laid out, no matter how compelling.
The structural and systemic problems that we face aren’t going anywhere. And, what’s more, as I keep saying, even if we magically get rid of Trump, there are a dozen would-be fascist autocrats waiting to take his place.
We’re doomed. We’re fucked. Get ready. Figure out what you believe in because the next few years are going to be very, very bump and there’s nothing we can do to stop it.
The Republican Party is a fascist party and all politics is national. What’s more, Republicans now actively hate on the idea of the US being a democracy in the first place — they want white autocratic minority rule.
As such, 60% of the population could be stunned by what we learn from the coming January 6th hearings but, lulz, it won’t matter because the ascendant white 40% will actively and willfully ignore what is found out.
How do you fix THAT problem.
Anyway, we’re fucked. The Republican Party grows more and more fascist by the day and they are absolutely determined to seize power and never, ever let it go again peacefully. Our democracy is in its twilight “anocracy” phase and we either have a civil war or we turn into a Russian style autocracy.
There are no other choices.
That’s it. We’re totally, completely fucked no matter what happens. Get ready.
First, a “National Divorce” would be a civil war and, as such, a lot — maybe millions — of people would die. If you want that because it would give you an excuse to murder liberals for political reasons: fuck you.
Anyway, a “National Divorce” is a complicated thing to imagine for a number of reasons because there are so many different scenarios and variables to work with. Here are the two main scenarios:
Blue States leave the Union (or try to) in late 2024 – early 2025 because fascist MAGA Republicans steal the election
Red States, at the behest of a Speaker Trump in 2023, attempt to leave the Union when one of several attempts to impeach both Biden and Harris don’t work out the way they think they will. (In other words, the “National Divorce” would probably start off as an attempt to intimidate Senate Democrats and then just gets out of hand.
Here is something I’ve already written about just the general Idea a “civil war” between Blue and Red.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
There are no simple answers to what ills the United States. We face strategic, titanic forces that will either see us become an autocracy or descend into the “national divorce” of civil war. There is no middle ground. This is it. Pick a side. We’re in the twilight of the America that we’ve known for about 250 years.
Pick a side, or a side will be chosen for you.
At the moment, I think we’re just going to become an autocracy. President DeSantis — or whomever — will take the reigns of power and just never let them go. Gradually at first, then more rapidly, the vise grip of autocracy will strangle America’s freedoms and we’ll be no different than Russia.
In about 20 years, we’ll be talking about President DeSantis invading Canada for this or that reason — form follows function.
Anyway, we’re fucked. Because if we don’t turn into an autocracy, we’re going to have a civil war. Probably more of an extremely violent “national divorce” that will redraw the political map of North America. It will be so horrible that by the time it’s over millions of people will have become political refugees. The United States of Canada will be born and Trumplandia (rump USA) will be born and it will be very, very poor and hostile to the modern world — and especially the USC.
I still think we’re just going to become an autocracy. Good luck.
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