Category: Cold Civil War

The Big Punt


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve long talked about “A Big Ugly” happening if Trump mysteriously — especially now — “doesn’t lose.” Well, it’s at least possible that a unique set of political circumstances we’re just going to punt the consequences of the existential rot facing America down the road a few years.

Or maybe not.

I still can’t imagine Interior Minister Bill Barr just giving up and letting Trump actually lose. It makes no sense. But if somehow Barr DOESN’T pull something of his butt to keep Trump in power, then it’s very possible that for about 50% of the population the Biden Era will simply be a House Trump Interregnum. And either they try to violently end that interregnum, or they win in 2024 and force the hand of the OTHERSIDE and all my nightmare scenarios happen that way.

Or, put another way, seeing a MAGA rally face-to-face this weekend was a real wakeup call. MAGA isn’t going anywhere and their devotion to Trump is so absolute that it’s inevitable that they’re going to destroy the United States one way or another.

Hopefully I’m wrong. I often (obviously) am.

Bill Barr’s Coming(?) Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason why I’m beginning to wonder if Bill Barr is going to stage a coup or not is, well, politically the decision has been made — Trump lost. And, yet, it would also make a huge amount of sense for Barr to pull something out of his butt so The Dear Leader mysteriously gets a second term.

Though, one has to note that such a legal coup would not happen in a vacuum. A civil war or revolution would almost certainly erupt even if Barr managed to pull it off. Or, put another way, while on paper TrumpBarr has every reason to believe they could successfully pull off a coup by fucking around with the “legal” votes, there would be consequences.

But what, exactly, might Barr do?

I dunno. I don’t know enough about this particular subject to be able to tell you. Maybe sue the states so the vote isn’t certified, it goes to Congress, then SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose?”

All I know is, Barr still has about a month to pull something out of his butt. Autocrats never lose. So, it makes sense that Barr is just plotting right now and will spring out of his hole at some point between now and when the votes are certified and the Electors vote.

‘The Trump Party’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It would make a lot of sense for the Republican Party to die and transform itself into, simply, The Trump Party. It would do away with any misunderstanding — the Republican Party is Trump and Trump is the Republican Party.

The upside to this would be there would be a sizable number of Republicans who would balk at this and, for maybe one presidential election cycle, the Right would be split. But soon enough the rump Republican Party would wither away, leaving a transformed Republican Party in the guise of a Trump Party that would have Nazi levels of devotion to Trump.

It would be far, far easier, than, for Trump to be an actual autocrat because any Trump Party elected official or government employee would do whatever the Dear Leader needed them to do. At last, there would be no issue regarding a Republican being a “RINO.” By definition, if you were in the Trump Party, you would have absolute devon to the Leader.

And that would be how America really did turn into the Weimar Republic. So, maybe it’s a good thing that there’s still a Republican Party that’s simply dominated and terroized by House Trump, not totally controlled by it?

Cancel Thanksgiving


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All things being equal, we need to cancel 2020’s Thanksgiving. I’m not an expert on viral transmission, so please ignore me with extreme prejudice, but it makes sense that Thanksgiving would be national superspreader event waiting to happen.

We’re already projected, as I understand, to reach 2,000-3,000 daily deaths by mid-December, so having a bunch of people — many of them elderly — cooped up in a home together without masks for a long weekend doesn’t seem like all that great an idea.

But, of course, since we have a deranged moron as our president at least until January 20th, there’s a good chance we will have zero national leadership on this subject. Any “canceling” of Thanksgiving will happen in fits and starts and according to where you sit on the political spectrum.

So, we really are going to have a “dark winter.” By January 20th, 2021, we may have a daily COVID19 death toll reaching something close to 10,000. It definitely seems as though at a minimum we,we are going to reach the 600,000 dead of the 1918 – 1920 Spanish flu very, very soon.

Trump’s Three Pronged Coup: Media Narrative Management, SCOTUS & Insurrection Act


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot going on right now. Trump is using the Spaghetti Gambit to see how far he can get towards an actual coup. Is still may not happen, but we’re going to get the shit scared out of us at least twice between now and January 20th: certification of votes and the actual voting of the Electors.

Here are the three methods Trump is going to use to at least come within shouting distance of an actual, God’s honest coup.

  1. Media Narrative Management
    Trump really, really screwed up when he didn’t strike before the media called the election. But now that he’s getting his wits about him again, he’s going to use an “army” of online trolls (probably all bought and paid for by Putin) to make to seem — at least in the media’s view — “inevitable” that Trump will win one way or another.
  2. SCOTUS
    This is important because if there are any questions about Electors voting or their naming (or whatever) Trump knows he will absolutely win at SCOTUS, no matter what. It’s his fail safe.
  3. Insurrection Act
    Should there be any political violence — even violence that his own followers incite — he will invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.” The only upside for us is he’s such an idiot that once he does take “total control” then he’s tipped his hand and it’s going to be a whole lot harder for him to actually keep it. Not saying he won’t be able to, but it will be far more difficult because Twitter liberals are going to, at last, realize they have to risk real things in the real world.

The Trump Coup That Wasn’t (But Was)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is so divided right now, that it’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump stages some sort of coup and only half the population sees it for what it is. The other half will look at Trump ratfucking of the usual procedures and say, “I thought a coup was supposed to be extra-political?”

Now, that’s what Republicans are thinking going into whatever coup attempt they settle on. It worked for them with the 2000 election, it worked with The Mueller Report and it work with the snap nomination and confirmation of Amey Coney Barrett. Why wouldn’t think they could pull off a coup if only 50% of the population thought one happened?

We have a whole month for Barr it pull something out of his ass or for Republicans to bully the Republican controlled legislatures of various swing states until they just throw up their hands and nullify it all, asking Congress and SCOTUS to sort things out.

The law on all of this is so bad that Trump wins because it goes to SCOTUS and, duh, they rule in his favor. Then half the country things there’s a coup and half doesn’t and, well, something bad is going to happen. Especially if you factor in Trump probably invoking the Insurrection Act.

Given how slipshod and disorganize the Trump Administration is, it’s easy to imagine they stage a coup, it works at first (because of the Insurrection Act) but in the end it all collapses on them because they can’t figure out what to do next. But the endgame would be the same — the United States would be would collapse.

What happens next would be up to us.

Trump’s Asymmetrical Attack


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarer

A lot is going on right now. Trump is literally going to exhaust every possible autocratic attack on the process to stay in power before he totally flips out, pardons himself and flies to Moscow.

Or, put another way, the Republican Party is doing the heavy authoritarian lifting that Trump is way too lazy to do when it’s needed. As such, all they need is one — 1 — asymmetrical attack to work and Trump stays in office pretty much for as long as he likes. If he manages to pull this coup off, he will soon enough demand a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” It will go rogue and we’ll quite literally be just like Putin’s Russia on a political level.

The interesting thing will be if Trump gets his coup, there is a violent reaction in the streets then he invokes the Insurrection Act…and he has no idea what he wants to do once he “wins.” He has no ideology other than the grift, so we could go through a civil war and in the end realize it was nothing more than Trump pushing the issue because he didn’t want to go to prison.

Remember, it will be extremely easy for Trump to give talking points to 1/2 of the country should he pull off a coup of some sort. They have already started talking about “legal” votes. So those “legal” votes could be everything from MAGA Electors selected by Pennsylvania to Electors intimidated into voting for Trump because they don’t want spend the rest of their lives in the Witness Protection Program.

The real bonkers point of all of this even if we magically avoid a civil war after Trump gets his “legal votes” and they still don’t put him over the top, Trump could very well simply destroy as much as he can on the way out. The country go pretty much grinds to a halt because Trump fired thousands of government officials in January right before he pardoned himself and bounced to Moscow on AF1.

I wish I was kidding.

Our 3 Upcoming Trump Post-Election Crises


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The ironic thing is what’s going on right now is much like what happened in 2016, without, of course, the pretty good chance of a fucking civil war. At each step along the way in 2016, angry Clinton supporters deluded themselves into thinking they had a chance to stop Trump from winning.

Flash forward 4 years and holy shit. The country is split 50/50 and all Trump needs is a way to figure out how to stage a coup in such a way that MAGA people can own libs on Twitter by saying Trump won the “legal” votes. That’s it, that’s all the want. And they are doing this as if it’s totally value free and there will be no consequences.

Before I continue, some context. These three events will be happening in the context of Bill Barr using the same media narrative management techniques he used with the Mueller Report AND the very real threat that something totally unexpected happens that gives Trump his long-sought after “Reichstag Fire.” It could be an Oklahoma City type explosion in a Blue State, a shocking murder of a major political leader or a war with the DPRK or Iran. Anything to take our attention away from the election so Trump can simply never leave.

  1. Certification Crisis
    This is already happening. In theory, state legislatures have the ability to name their own elections without any regard to the will of the people. The last time this actually happened, I think, was the election of 1876. There might be a lot of practical problems to prevent this from actually happening, but Republicans are so enraged that the dear leader might actually lose, that they will be willing to move heaven and earth to get as close as possible to Trump winning as they possibly can. It’s all about building momentum and changing the media narrative. That’s it. And, of course, “owning the libs.”
  2. The Elector Intimidation Crisis
    For all their talk about “legal votes,” this may be what Republicans are really talking about. The only “legal votes” that are cast for president are those of the Electors. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where Trump doxes all the Electors on Twitter and “jokes” to MAGA to “remind them of the power of the 2nd Amendment.” They are human beings, after all, and the prospect of having to join the Witness Protection Program for the rest of their life if they don’t vote for Trump might give a few of them pause for thought. Especially if a few of them have already been murdered by some deranged MAGA person. This could really happen.
  3. Trump’s January Freak Out
    If we somehow manage to get past 1 and 2, then we face the worst of all of these — it beginning to sink in to Trump that he’s actually going to leave office. He has solid month or so to snap and finally freak the fuck out. This is when he will grow extremely unpredictable as it begins to sink in that he may actually leave office and face legal jeopardy. It’s possible that the final Republican litmus test will be if they had to be physically removed from office just like the Dear Leader. So it might not be just Trump we have to remove from the White House, it could be Pompeo at State, too. (The list goes on.) Or, Trump could pardon himself, fire half the Federal government and then abscond with AF1 to Moscow or Pyongyang.

    Good luck.

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Gambit’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is truly the dumbest timeline. All signs point to some sort of extra-political move on Trump’s part, and, yet, at the same time for the moment there seems to be an element of throw everything possible at the wall and see what sticks. In other words, Trump refuses to give up, no matter what. To the point that he’s willing to stumble into a coup for no other reason than he simply can’t process actually losing the presidency.

So, it’s possible that Trump is actively doing everything in his power to destroy evidence of criminal activity on his part AND setting up an extra-political move AND preparing for his post-presidency all at the same time.

Remember, we have about a month until the certification of votes and the Electors vote. That gives Bill Barr more than enough time to pull something out of his butt so neither one of those events happen without them being corrupted and attacked.

This could happen to the extent that Trump sort of accidently-on-purpose stages a coup and then when there’s a massive backlash in the streets to this, he uses to Insurrection Act…all without himself knowing what the endgame is. He could do it on strictly a tactical basis –there would be no grand, overarching strategy over than just not leaving office. He could very well drag the whole Republican Party in to a coup without really having any point to it other than he doesn’t want his feelings hurt.

In a sense, 240 years of American liberal democracy is at risk because Trump is a snowflake who doesn’t want his fee-fees hurt. Let that sink in for a moment.

Or, put another way, we’re probably going to have a Vote Certification Crisis and an Elector Intimidation Crisis over and above any ratfucking Barr does with the Justice Department. The more difficult it is for Trump to stay in power, the more ham handed and radical he will become and the Republican Party won’t say a word.

Trump, in desperation, could dox all the Electors on Twitter and “joke” that they need to be reminded of the power of the 2nd Amendment by MAGA. It’s a value free thing for him to do. Either he just scares the shit out of everyone or he wins and in both cases — fuck you lib.

And remember, I haven’t even mentioned the various Reichstag Fire scenarios ranging from Wag The Dog wars with the DPRK or Iran or one of his own followers blowing up 30 Rock in NYC in an effort to impress The Dear Leader with his devotion to the cause. Any of those type of unexpected events would be enough for Trump to take “told control,” thinking by the time everything was sorted out he would be in his second term.

I still contend that our absolute best case scenario is somehow we get past the Vote Certification Crisis and the Elector Intimidation Crisis and Trump STILL hasn’t “not lost” and he freaks out, pardons himself and flies AF1 to either Pyongyang or Moscow and spends all his time banging whores and rambling about all the aliens at Area 51.

So, it’s at least possible that either there is a coup, it works because of the Insurrection Act but once they actually try to consolidate power it all falls apart because they’re a bunch of incompetent morons who want all the power but none of the responsibility. They destroy every possible thing in hopes of staying in power forever, but they don’t have the wherewithal to do it and so on January 20th, Biden is sworn in and they just wonder around in a daze.

That’s the absolute best case scenario.

More likely there really is going to be a coup.

Coup Predictions


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still don’t know exactly how it’s going to happen, but very soon Trump is mysteriously going to “not lose” the 2020 Election and all hell is going to break loose. All the miscalculations, assumptions, infrastructure and momentum are there for it to happen any moment now.

It may take a little bit longer than I expect for logistical reasons, but in the end the result will be the same: Trump will “not lose.”

In quick succession, we can expect Biden supporters to (rightfully) flip the fuck out. And in just as quick succession, Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act. He will have the legal right to order the U.S. Military to knock heads. Then 50% of the population will think a coup is happening (it will be) and 50% of the population will relieved that the Dear Leader will stay in office to protect them from being canceled by AOC+3. The same talking points that were used against the protestors in Portland will be used at this point, as well. The Right will chant “law and order” and as such, well, we’re all very much fucked.

As I have said repeatedly in the past, my prediction is that at this point, political violence across the country will be such that there will be significant consolidation of Red and Blue States with massive numbers of domestic political refugees springing up. We can expect a rather abrupt purging of the media as well, probably after angry New Yorkers storm Trump Tower and or Fox News.

Once the purge of the media takes place there will be a moment of truth for a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people who vote for Trump because they feel they have no alterative. I refuse to give them the benefit of the doubt, however, so we’re just going to have to assume whatever happens is going to be a 50/50 split.

Also at this point, because of the dynamics of such historic events, a number of people’s lives will be radically changed forever. Heros will be made and cowards will be shamed, as I like to say. Once people who thrive in stability (read: normal successful people) are faced with a crisis beyond their imagination and ability to process, they may very well just choke. They will panic because they simply don’t do well in a crisis.

We can also expect the U.S. Military to begin to implode. Even though Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act allows him to be a tyrant legally, there may be large numbers of the military who just can’t kill innocent civilians no matter the reason and they will join up with the provisional Blue State government.

I honestly can’t came out the endgame of this shitshow. The two sides may be so equally matched that it’s a draw and the United States splits into two countries — Trumplandia and Bluedoian (or whatever.) Or it could be that because of unexpected leadership and, well, dumb luck — just like in the original Civil War — the Blue States will win and renew the American Covenant. Or, MAGA wins and they start murdering people like me in cold blood.

If you want to get really dark about such things — we may be in for about four years (the usual length of a major war) of a massive clusterfuck. WMD may be used by both sides on each other. Foreign powers may get involved in some way. WW3 may happen. The entire political geography of North America may be re-drawn.

But one thing is for sure — we’re in a new era. All bets are off. It’s up to us what happens next.