Category: The Resistance

How The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Might Play Out


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a nobody. I don’t know anything. But I like to run scenarios. And I know enough about what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine to get myself in trouble. So, here goes.

Stage 1
I imagine what would happen is there would be a huge artillery barrage to soften up the front line. The footage of this happening would scare the shit out of the domestic American audience and be the thing that pushed everything else off the front page for a few days (months? forever?)

Stage 2
This is would be make or break for Ukraine. If after 24-48 hours of artillery attack they weren’t able to prove their mettle in the first encounters with the Russians, it’s possible the Russians might make a break for Kiev. The logic would be — capture Kiev and force the Ukrainians to sue for peace. If, however, the Ukrainians do a good job, then, Russians probably will settle for a smash-and-grab operation that has far more modest objectives.

Stage 3
Now we come to the stage where long term, the Russians just can’t win and makes you wonder what the fuck they’re up to. History and human nature tells us that even if the Russians get all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and all of Novorossiya as part of a comprehensive peace treaty after taking Kiev, there’s a good chance that there would be a long term pitched battle on a massive scale. It would be just like Afghanistan in the 80s, only with a huge population in a far more strategic location.

I’m at a loss as to why Putin can’t see the implications of Stage 3. It’s a mystery.

Better Dead Than … Red … Er … Blue?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I used to think that Republicans have some sort of huge civil war between its MAGA base and the pro-Ukraine Establishment. But, now, oh boy. It appears that what I thought was going to be a civil war may turn out to be more of just a drunken scuffle.

It seems as though the vast majority of Republicans are going to go all-in with their support for Putin. So, should there be a war between Russia and Ukraine the lines of domestic American politics will be pretty clear — Democrats support Ukraine and Republican support Russia.

If that doesn’t make your head spin, I don’t know what will. After 70 years of ranting about how Russia was a threat to the American way, Republicans are going to collectively throw in the towel because of a fail reality TV star. But, as iI keep saying, all of this is the macro trends associated with a declining empire paying themselves out.

Something like this was going to happen the moment Obama won a second term and white people began to freak out about their imminent loss of power within American society. (Something about Obama’s *second* term freaked white people out the way his first term did not.)

So, now, have a potential situation where the vast majority of Republicans side with America’s historic geopolitical adversary because their presumptive 2024 nominee has such a tight bond to the white conservative volk that they can’t dare cross him, even though his support for Putin is comically unseemly.

I honestly don’t know what to tell you. It’s going to be really weird. But that seems to be the direction we’re going. If there are a number of miscalculations across the board, it could be that it’s THAT that costs Republicans Congress in 2022. (Though, let’s be honest, Republicans have so rigged the system at this point that they’re going to win, even if they don’t win. Or, they’re not going to lose, as is always the cause with autocrats.)

It could be that not even something marketed as WW3 can prevent our decent into autocracy or civil war and, in the end, our civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe only makes a bad WW3 situation worse because we’re going to vaporize ourselves into the Stone Age.

Dec 7th — The Day Putin Could Be A Real Dick


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know anything. I’m a nobody. But it seems at least possible that President Biden’s phone call with Putin tomorrow, Dec. 7th, is something of a trap.

Here’s how it would go: the two men have a phone call and it ends. Almost immediately, things begin to change dramatically on the ground in Ukraine. The Russians are in a hurry to attack for some reason.

Joe Rogan would be surprised.

They attack so it’s still Dec. 7th USA time and everyone blames Biden for screwing up the phone call on Dec. 7th, the anniversary of Pearl Harbor.

But that is just one possibility. More likely, the whole thing will be a lulz and we can move on to welcoming 2022.

What’s The Fucking Patriot Front Up To?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Man, oh, man, am I nobody. I got a bum ankle, warm laptop and Internet access. That’s all I got at the moment. But I do have something else — I’m good at scenarios. So, I’m rather alarmed with the recent shenanigans of the fucking paramilitary group The Patriot Front and want to game out what their long term goals may be.

The Patriot Party Flag

I’m not an expert, but I do know enough from what I can see with my own two eyes to figure out some sense of what their danger is. Here’s what we know about them. They are well organized. They work in the shadows and with stealth. They have an infrastructure built out enough to swoop into a hostile Blue city like DC or Philadelphia and get out safely before they get their asses beat.

So, where does that leave us?

It seems as though they are plotting the ability to do some sort of attack in a major city in the Eastern Corridor at the time and place of their choosing. What might trigger such an attack is anyone’s guess. But probably it would be done in the context of the country descending into mass chaos. Although, you make the case that The Patriot Front is auditioning for something akin to the SS, should we become a true autocracy which would find a modern SS quite handy.

Anyway, I’m probably going to write a lot more about this in the future. Stay tuned.

Well, WW3 Starting Soon Would Be One Way To Prevent America’s Decent Into Autocracy Or Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still smarting over how poorly I predicted the 2020 presidential cycle. So, I keep looking for reasons why my current personal conventional wisdom of us slipping peacefully into autocracy (with a high risk of civil war) could possibly be wrong.

Right now, the only thing I got is WW3.

WW3, which would be a series of major non-nuclear regional wars (Russia – Ukraine, China-Taiwan) happening at the same time, would be the only thing that could potentially give Biden the ooph necessary to get across the finish line fair and square. All other options have either Steve K. Bannon stealing the 2024 election successfully, we simply vote for autocracy with our eyes wide open or we have a civil war.

I’m not saying I want WW3 — it could too easily turn into The Day After type situation — but it is, in fact, one way our democracy might live to fight for at least another four years.

Otherwise, oh boy. Get a passport.

A Major Russian War Against Ukraine Would End The Covid19 Pandemic Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m not predicting that people will stop dying of COVID should there be a major war between Russia and Ukraine, I am suggesting that our perception of COVID19 will change dramatically.

But one big caveat — I don’t think there’s going to be a war between the Russians and Ukrainians. Or, at least, not a big one. All of this is just another very expensive power play on Putin’s part to get a summit with Biden. He’s getting that summit on Tuesday and so, lulz, everything should calm down after that.

And, yet, let’s imagine that didn’t happen.

Let’s imagine that a huge war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine. We need to appreciate that it’s possible that COVID19 would go from being seeing a unique pandemic to a regular part of life — or endemic. A lot of this would depend on how big the war was, how long it lasted and what it’s endgame turned out to be.

But there is a finite amount of media attention. If the eyes of the world are on a big chunk of Ukraine being eaten by Russia, it’s inevitable that the sexxy COVID19 pandemic would be seen as simply endemic and something we have to put up with from here on out.

The only way this would change in the future would be if a REALLY BAD new variant of COVID popped out and we were talking about millions, not thousands dying from it at any particular moment.

I guess the whole point of this is — a major regional war in Europe would jiggle everything in a big way. Everything from the January 6th insurrection investigation to all of the other Trump crimes we’re looking into to the COVID19 pandemic would be pushed off the front page in favor of a huge war.

But none of that has happened yet. We’ll have to wait and see if it does.

A Cold Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a huge fan of David Rothkopf — even though I fear he’s come to think I’m an Internet crank — but I have to disagree with him on what’s going on in the United States at the moment.

He wrote about the “cold civil war” going on in the United States at the moment, and, from what I could tell, he seems to think this is a potentially long-term solution. He just can’t come out and say what growing numbers of people — especially those few who read my writing know I believe — that the United States could very well be living in a modern day antebellum period.

It’s actually possible that the world’s first hyperpower is on the cusp of willingly bombing itself into oblivion. And if that doesn’t happen, then we’re going to slide peacefully into autocracy.

Or, to be more succinct — America is careening towards the two existential choices of civil war or autocracy. Either we play the high stakes game of who has the best military or we simply let an autocrat “make America great again.”

And there are no quick fixes to this problem. No “boom” is going to save us. No, “this is big” Twitter thread. And we just don’t have the political will to take down TrumpWorld using the legal system.

So, in essence, we’re fuuuuuucked.

Why am I so sure about this? Well, all the metrics point in one of those two directions. A huge swath of America no longer believes in democracy. While another group of MAGA is bloodthirsty enough that they could very well start a civil war just because they want the opportunity to hurt people like me on a physical level for my political beliefs.

Anyway. You have a few years. I would say, if we’re lucky, we’re living in 1857 right now. Slave Power will either take over the whole country or we start a civil war around 1860 – 1861. Good luck.

Weimar America: The Patriot Front Threat


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was astonished to see the footage tonight of the fascist paramilitary group the Patriot Front swooping into D.C. then leaving as quickly as they came. This is very disturbing for a number of reason, among them being that usually when a democracy is in its death spiral, paramilitary groups like the Patriot Front begin to pop up.

So, my general belief that we’ll in the beginning stages of a very bumpy few years is beginning to hold water. If hundreds of far Right nut jobs can spirit themselves into the capital without anyone knowing about it, then this is a dry run for something far more nefarious.

Because it takes an extensive infrastructure and logistical command to pull of such a thing. You don’t just get that many people into a hostile center-Left Blue city in broad day light just for the lulz of taking some tourist pictures.

These guys are plotting long-term.

But, what?

There are any number of things that they could be up to. I think they’re going through their paces in the lead up to something Really Big at some point as we grow closer to the potentially very turbulent 2024 – 2025 timeframe. When they feel they can make a difference in the control of the government, they strike. But they know they have a few years where they can do dry run after dry run after run in preparation of that.

Or, put another way, this is another macro metric that is difficult for us to understand the context of. Is the Patriot Front doing shit like this a ping from a dark future, or is it value free? Or is it both? I honestly don’t know. But it doesn’t exactly make me feel any better.

Of NATO, Ukraine & Putin’s Metrics For Invasion


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One theory floating around Twitter is Putin is about to engage in a massive, risky war against Ukraine because he wants to stop the country from joining NATO.

I struggle to imagine this being true, for a lot of reasons.

The biggest is — if all Putin wants to do is ensure that Ukraine doesn’t join NATO, all he has to do is a modest smash-and-grab operation connecting Donbass to Odessa. Have enough of a lingering “frozen conflict” endgame to it that NATO just doesn’t want to risk letting Ukraine join.

And all of the other metrics presented to me can be swatted away. Putin is old, they say. And I say, so what. Putin is an autocrat and all autocrats think they’re going to live forever. The list goes on.

You can’t escape some cold hard facts. It’s sexy to think of a big war between Ukraine and Russia, but you can’t escape how small Russia’s economy is. You can’t escape the stress such a huge, potentially long-term, war against Ukraine that has a fair sized population would have on Russia’s economy and overall stability.

The point is — what metrics is Putin using that would cause him to believe a general war against Ukraine would be a good idea? What the hell is he thinking? Because it would make a lot more sense if this was all just a very expensive bit of saber rattling meant to get a face-to-face sit down IRL with Biden.

And he can do that because he’s an autocrat. So, for the time being, that’s what I think is happening. When something changes, I’ll revise my assessment.

TrumpRussia 2.0


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is really bonkers. But it’s entertaining to mull this possibility, so here we go. We all know how much Trump loves to suck Putin’s cock, so it would make a lot of sense if those two guys continue to chat like school girls. And we know that Trump never met a quid pro quo that he didn’t like.

So, what if Putin told Trump — hey, it’s not the House flipping you have to slow walk January 6th things in the courts to, it’s a point this December.

Trump wouldn’t know when, exactly, but he would know that the eyes of the world would turn rather abruptly to Ukraine soon. So much so, that we would wake up in six months and look at each other, shocked that Congress’ January 6th investigation has mysteriously faded into nothingness.

Now, obviously, this kooky idea falls part after this because the Republican Party could very well collapse into two waring camps if Putin misjudges the willingness of Ukrainians to fight for their nation. The longer the war lasts, the more Putin-loving Trump will begin to tear away from the rest of the Republican Party.

But Trump, obviously, doesn’t have the mental ability to do that second and third level political thinking — he’s more of a grunt kind of guy –so, it’s possible this informal quid pro quo might happen.

Or not. I have no proof and it sounds kind of bonkers even to me.

I note that The Washington Post is reporting that evidence suggests that Russia may attack Ukraine early next year with 175,000 troops.

So, if there is any discussion between TrumpWorld and Putin that would mean the there are any number of other, less nefarious explanations for why they’re slow walking everything — that’s just Trump people do. The whole Russia thing could very well be happening totally independent of what’s going on in the States with Trump and January 6th.

But the war starts early, like, say between now and Dec. 16, then, that would be really spook, because December 16th is the date TrumpWorld lawyer Jeff Clark pushed his Congressional testimony to.