The Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to take the idea of Trump going “full tyrant” in 2025 seriously. To make a long scenario pretty short, if Trump did go nuts in the early days of 2025, I think a General Strike by people in Blue States MIGHT be enough to convince the U.S. Military to depose Trump.

This, in turn, would of course cause a civil war because Red States would begin to leave the Union.

There you go, that’s how WW3 happens in 2025.

Well, This Will Be Fun

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a pretty good chance that there will be a political Fourth Turning at the same time we have something akin to a Petite Singularity. Nothing is for certain, but there is a pretty good chance that just as the USA buckles we will see AI take off in an unexpected way.

I have been messing with AI a lot of late and I’ve been stunned at how good an unexpected it is at times. It’s *possible* that the first use of LLMs in androids will be in some sort of dystopian American Civil War / Revolution that happens in conjunction with a global WW3.

Oh boy!

Or not. What do I know.

I do know that the CONDITIONS are there for some pretty fucked up shit to happen starting in a few months. I just don’t see how we make it through the 2024 election in any form of peaceful existance.

American Ancien Regime: ‘Keep Passing Those Open Windows’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The American Constitution now has a pretty profound logic-trap built into it. If a president has immunity for “official acts,” what’s to stop him or her from engaging in a lot of defenestration towards anyone who gets in his / her way — including SCOTUS?

Now, obviously, a lot — A LOT — of people a lot smarter than I am are probably writing 10,000 word New Yorker pieces about this very thing as we speak. But the fact remains — we’re fucked.

And I stand by my prediction that given how stupid Trump is that we what might happen is he is deposed in early 2025 — if he wins — then there is a civil war. I only say this because Trump just doesn’t have the nuance of a Putin who turned Russia into a very legalistic autocracy. Trump is a very dumb, very lazy thug with a poor sense of the consequences of his actions and statements. What’s to stop Seal Team Six from murdering some person Trump doesn’t like when he tweets something along the lines of, “Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?”

Wouldn’t that be an “official act?”

And couldn’t Trump just pardon Seal Team Six for murdering Tom Nichols or Tim Miller or Rich Wilson whomever the fuck Trump doesn’t like? This is no longer a theoretical — this is a very real future the US faces if and when Trump becomes POTUS again.

I say there would be a civil war in such a situation because Trump could be such a dumb thug that he’s deposed in some way — maybe through a General Strike? — then Red States leave the Union….and there’s a civil war and WW3 happens with about 2 billion dead.

I don’t know what I’m going to do. I think it’s inevitable that some sort of MAGA secret police will throw ME out a window. I’m just too much of a loudmouth crank. Oh well. So long and thanks for all the fish.

Adults Are Speaking

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, someone from Washington D.C. looked at this blog. This alarms me to no end because it could be someone with the Federal government who thinks I’m some sort of dangerous lunatic, given all my ranting over the years about how much I hate MAGA.

I stand by my ranting, but the context is — I was simply processing some macro trends.

Now, well, lulz.

I’m fine. I’m just going to have to figure out what I’m going to do going forward. Given how my politics don’t fit where I live, there’s a good chance I’m going to become a political refugee at some point starting in late 2024.

Or, maybe not.

Maybe, I don’t know, we’ll just drift into MAGA fascism in a way that I, personally, won’t be affected. But I *am* a loud mouth crank. So, if things get as bad as I fear, I’m inevitably going to piss off the MAGA secret police soon enough and they’ll murder me in cold blood.

Hopefully not. Hopefully, they’ll just leave me alone because no one listens to me because they think I’m nuts.

Tyrant Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am very blasé, in real terms, about how the USA is now has an elected monarch with today’s SCOTUS decision. Whatever. I have a novel to work on. And I’m well aware that if anyone actually listened to any of my past rantings about this particular situation they probably would grow alarmed.

There’s no reason to be alarmed! All my past ranting was just me struggling to accept the fact that MAGA on a macro basis is determined to turn us into a fascist state. I have a passport. If all else fails, I can just leave the country as part of the America diaspora that will begin when Tyrant Trump becomes POTUS.

I’m very harmless. I really am. Very, very harmless. I’m a man of ideas. A man of peace.

But I think we have to accept that this is it. Late 2024, early 2025 could see some of the most profound events not just in American history, but human history. If the USA buckles, as many as 2 billion people could die because of limited nuclear exchanges across the globe.

Yet there is nothing I can do. I suppose if the absolute worst happened I might be able to help feed people in my neighborhood, but given that I’m Blue in a Red part of Virginia — I’m going to have to flee North, probably.

America is, on a macro basis, set to either become a fascist state in 2025, or buckle in a rather profound manner. Only time will tell which choice we will make.

I Hate This

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really hate thinking about shit like this, but here we are. I hate the idea that I have to think about the possibility of Trump going full tyrant in 2025. And, what’s more, even if Trump loses in the fall, there may be a civil war.

Things have come to a head one way or another.

Our only chance at this point is that there is not only a clear-cut Trump loss, but when he starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce, no one listens to him.

That’s all I got, folks.

There Is A Non-Zero Chance That Trump Will Be Deposed If Elected — And A Civil War Will Happen

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have written at great length about all of this over the years, but, in general, the reason why I think Trump is in danger of somehow being deposed if elected is simple: he’s an idiot. If he was a “Great Man” of history, he would gradually consolidate power and at some point between 2025 and 2029 call a Constitutional Convention that would rewrite the document to suit his needs (or whatever.)

But, no.

What’s probably going to happen is mass chaos in the guise of an aggressive implementation of Project 2025.

It’s easy to game out a scenario where the country buckles because of this. All of this is, of course, very speculative, but either there is a snap coup of some sort by the U.S. Military or we go straight to civil war where there is a “National Divorce” — probably prompted by Blue states — that would be more about who gets the USA “brand” that any sort of “secession” in real terms.

Or something like that.

The key take away is Trump is a chaos agent — and a dumb one. He is so ham handed and idiotic that he will bungle a historical gimmie, which would be transitioning the USA into a Hungary-style autocratic state.

The Trump ‘Historical NPC’ Proxy

Anything to do with Trump is too controversial for LLMs, so I used a proxy to talk about him. Here is what I got.
what might distinguish a “historical NPC” from a Great Man? the historical NPC has a huge influence on history, but rather than change it simply is a vessel for it ebb and flow

Some answers:

ChatGPT:

The concept of a “historical NPC” (Non-Player Character) versus a “Great Man” in history can be distinguished through several characteristics and roles they play in shaping historical events. Here’s how you might differentiate them:

Historical NPC

  1. Contextual Influence:
  • A historical NPC plays a significant role within the context of their time and environment but does not necessarily initiate or drive major changes. They are often seen as a product of their circumstances, reacting to the forces around them.
  1. Execution over Innovation:
  • They excel in executing existing ideas, policies, or movements rather than originating them. Their impact comes from their ability to implement, manage, or carry forward what others have initiated.
  1. Representative Role:
  • Historical NPCs often represent the broader trends, movements, or sentiments of their era. They may be leaders or key figures, but their actions and decisions are closely aligned with the prevailing currents of their time.
  1. Limited Agency:
  • Their actions and choices are heavily constrained by the historical, social, and political context in which they operate. They navigate within the boundaries set by these constraints rather than breaking new ground.
  1. Supporting Impact:
  • Their contributions, while significant, often support and reinforce the changes driven by others. They are essential in maintaining continuity and stability during periods of transition.

Great Man

  1. Innovative Influence:
  • A Great Man is often seen as an agent of change, initiating significant shifts in history. They possess a visionary quality that allows them to alter the course of events through their actions and ideas.
  1. Creation and Transformation:
  • They are creators and innovators, introducing new ideas, policies, or movements. Their influence stems from their ability to think and act beyond the established norms of their time.
  1. Individual Agency:
  • Great Men have a high degree of personal agency and autonomy. Their decisions and actions are not merely responses to existing circumstances but are proactive steps that reshape the historical landscape.
  1. Defining Moments:
  • Their impact is often associated with pivotal moments or turning points in history. They leave a lasting legacy that defines an era or initiates a new phase in historical development.
  1. Central Role:
  • They are central figures whose leadership and vision drive major historical events. Their contributions are seen as crucial and transformative, often setting the direction for future developments.

Examples

  • Historical NPC:
  • George III of England: Played a significant role during the American Revolution but is largely seen as a product of his time, reacting to the forces of colonial unrest rather than driving them.
  • Franz Ferdinand: His assassination sparked World War I, but he himself did not drive the course of history; instead, he became a catalyst for existing tensions.
  • Great Man:
  • Napoleon Bonaparte: His military and political innovations significantly altered the course of European history.
  • Martin Luther King Jr.: His leadership in the Civil Rights Movement brought about significant social change through his vision and actions.

Conclusion

The distinction between a historical NPC and a Great Man lies in their relationship with the historical forces of their time. While historical NPCs play crucial roles within the boundaries set by their context, Great Men are those who step beyond these boundaries, driving change through their vision, leadership, and innovative actions. Both are essential to the tapestry of history, but their impacts are felt and remembered in fundamentally different ways.

Gemini Advanced:

Here’s a breakdown of the key distinctions between a “historical NPC” (Non-Player Character) and a “Great Man,” as well as some nuances to consider:

Historical NPC:

  • Role: A facilitator or catalyst for historical events, but not the primary driver.
  • Agency: Limited ability to shape events independently. Their actions are often dictated by circumstances or larger historical forces.
  • Legacy: Significant, but often tied to a specific event or era. They may be remembered as a symbol or figurehead, rather than a transformative leader.
  • Example: Pontius Pilate, the Roman governor who presided over Jesus’s trial. His decision was pivotal, but his personal motivations were secondary to the religious and political tensions of the time.

Great Man:

  • Role: An active agent of change who significantly alters the course of history.
  • Agency: Possesses unique qualities (charisma, intellect, leadership) that enable them to exert influence and make decisions that shape events.
  • Legacy: Enduring and transformative. They are remembered for their individual achievements and the lasting impact they had on society.
  • Example: Julius Caesar, whose military conquests and political reforms reshaped the Roman Republic and paved the way for the Roman Empire.

Nuances:

  • Subjectivity: The distinction between an NPC and a Great Man can be subjective and depend on interpretation. Historians may debate the degree of agency individuals possessed and the extent to which their actions were shaped by external factors.
  • Historical Context: The same individual might be viewed as an NPC in one context and a Great Man in another. A military leader who wins a crucial battle might be seen as a Great Man, while their role in a larger war might be more of an NPC.
  • Complexity: Most historical figures likely fall somewhere on a spectrum between NPC and Great Man, with varying degrees of agency and influence.

In Summary:

While both historical NPCs and Great Men play important roles in history, the key difference lies in their agency and the extent to which they actively shape events. NPCs are more reactive and bound by circumstance, while Great Men possess the ability to drive change and leave a lasting legacy.

I hope this helps! Let me know if you’d like to explore specific examples or delve deeper into this concept.

Claude LLM:

This is an intriguing question that touches on different perspectives in historical analysis and philosophy of history. Let me break down the key distinctions as I see them:

  1. Agency vs. Conduit:
  • A “Great Man” is typically seen as having significant personal agency, making deliberate choices that alter the course of history.
  • A “historical NPC” (Non-Player Character), as you describe, acts more as a conduit for historical forces, embodying or catalyzing changes without necessarily directing them.
  1. Intentionality:
  • Great Men are often portrayed as having a vision or intention to change history.
  • The “historical NPC” might not intend to have a large impact, but ends up doing so due to circumstances.
  1. Recognition:
  • Great Men are usually well-known and celebrated in historical narratives.
  • “Historical NPCs” might be less recognized, despite their significant impact.
  1. Historical interpretation:
  • The Great Man theory views history as shaped by exceptional individuals.
  • The “historical NPC” concept aligns more with structural or materialist views of history, where broader forces are seen as primary drivers.
  1. Uniqueness:
  • Great Men are often considered irreplaceable; the idea is that without them, history would have unfolded differently.
  • “Historical NPCs” might be seen as more interchangeable; if not this specific person, someone else might have filled a similar role.
  1. Scope of influence:
  • Great Men are typically credited with broad, sweeping changes.
  • “Historical NPCs” might have huge influence in specific areas or moments, without necessarily reshaping the entire historical narrative.

An example might help illustrate: Gavrilo Princip, who assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand, could be seen as a “historical NPC.” His action had enormous consequences, leading to World War I, but he didn’t shape the broader forces of nationalism and imperial rivalry that made the war possible.

This concept raises interesting questions about how we interpret historical causality and attribute significance to individual actors versus broader social, economic, and cultural forces.

Would you like me to elaborate on any specific aspect of this distinction?

Trump As Historical NPC

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is there just isn’t much going on there. He is just an empty vessel. Trump just drifts through history.

There are no easy answers. I have no idea what will happen.

Three Scenarios

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America faces three scenarios this fall:

  1. Trump Loses (No Civil War)
    In this scenario, Trump loses and he just rants about how he won and no one listens to him.
  2. Trump Loses (Civil War)
    In this scenario, he loses, and he rants about how he won and MAGA Red states begin to pull out of the Union.
  3. Trump Wins (Revolution, Then Civil War)
    In this scenario, Trump wins, goes full tyrant, is deposed and as such, a civil war happens because MAGA Red States want Trump to stay POTUS.