Category: Trumplandia

The Longest Month


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have, as I understand it, about a month before two critical things happen — the state legislatures certify the vote and then, soon after, Electors vote. Now, on a strictly political level, Interior Minister Bill Barr really has his work cut out for him if he plans to make sure our tinpot tyrant “doesn’t lose.”

But, lulz, he doesn’t care. The same logic that allowed the Republicans to quickie-confirm Amy Coney Barrett to SCOTUS will allow Barr to take his chances on staging a coup (in some way) between now and about Dec 12th. I don’t know what he’s got up his sleeve, but I will be flabbergasted if Moscow Mitch doesn’t get on the Senate floor and tell us all that “legal” votes have been counted and Trump is going to get a second term.

Of course, this would mark not only the end of the First Republic, but likely the beginning of some sort of civil war / revolution — what I call The Big Ugly. One thing is clear, no matter what — it appears as though should Trump actually be physically removed from the White House (probably after pardoning himself) the Republican Party is going to be made up entirely of Trump deadenders. Either you believe that Trump is STILL president and have to be forcibly removed from your job, or you’re not a Republican.

But wait, there’s more — Trump also has a month to start a war in an effort to distract us all while he steal the election. It’s very easy to imagine the DPRK shooting off an ICBM or testing a H-bomb and Trump mysteriously changing his views on Little Rocket Man so there’s a war. By the time we figure out what happened, Trump is ensconced in the White House for another four years and fuck you, lib.

There are plenty of pretty dark scenarios. Somehow the vote isn’t certified, it gets through into Congress and then thrown to SCOTUS where Trump wins. Trump gets desperate and doxes all the Democratic Electors, telling the Proud Boys to remind them of “the power of the Second Amendment.” The moment it really, truly begins to sink in Trump that he isn’t going to be president anymore, there is absolutely nothing he might not attempt.

He could very well destroy the entire country for the sole purpose of not having his feelings hurt. Good luck, guys.

Can This Union Be Saved?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I fear something really bad and really violent is going to happen in the United States very, very soon (2020-2024-ish) for a number of reasons. The extreme negative polarization going on in the United States right now is very alarming. I have repeatedly caught myself thinking about how horrible negative polarization is in MAGA land, only to realize I was doing the same Goddamn thing.

Though, to be fair, if you look at Donald Trump and really would like four more of years of that if your other option is middle of the road Joe Biden, I don’t know what to do with you.

But the issue is, MAGA isn’t going anywhere. MAGA’s dream is my nightmare. They want the very autocracy that I fear. I know I rant a lot about identity politics hurting art, but MAGA people take it to the next level by not only getting mad about identity politics, but wallowing it in themselves. What is MAGA but identity politics for….white people?

If this was a novel — which it isn’t — whatever needless, tragic violence that might happen in the United States would happen NOW, not somewhere between now and 2024. We think we’ve managed to punt this particular problem of MAGA down the road, when there are plenty — PLENTY — of ways this could go wrong almost immediately.

I don’t want any violence. I’m not advocating any violence. All I’m saying is, the Right and the Left are receding from having any form of shared reality at an alarming rate. To such an extent that it almost becomes difficult to NOT think of a scenario where Americans don’t start murdering each other for political reasons in numbers not seen since the Civil War.

I hope I’m wrong. I often am. But we’re not out of the woods yet.

MAGA As ‘Mind Virus’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have been exposed to the MAGA mind virus way too much the last few days. I fear I’m really beginning to understand how Nazism was able to consume Germany.

The first way it happens is when the center-Left and the center-Right can neither agree on facts nor agree on the interpretation of facts. This lets someone like Trump swoop in and seize control. Once you’re post-factual, then you really begin to work on the basis of faith, not facts.

Also, when you reach a point where all you do is think about The Dear Leader, you don’t have time to remember that, duh, someone like Biden — who is extremely middle of the road — isn’t REALLY a pawn of “AOC+3.”

Then, of course, there is just the issue of nullification, confirmation basis and denialism. You have an absolute abstract fear of being “canceled” simply for being conservative and so when you point out that there’s some serious racism, bigotry and misogyny going on, the person just waves it off and says they know what Trump “really” means.

But we have to never forget that MAGA is American Nazism. We can’t let our guard down. The moment we do, they will figure out away to make Trump’s nightmare dream a reality.

Of ‘Cancel Culture’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just like poor people don’t understand marginal tax rates so they frightened of the “socialism” of the progressive tax rate, so, too, do a lot of people who will never, ever be “canceled” fear that horrific fate.

Before I continue, let me be clear — it would very, very easy for me to be “canceled” should the opportunity arise. My views — and my actions — often don’t fit the media narrative and, well, lulz. But, in general, the absolute abstract fear that many average people have about being “canceled” gets on my nerves so badly I’m willing to tempte fate.

The issue about “cancel culture” is how rare it actually works. So, so very many monstrous people who definitely deserve to be “canceled” (especially on the Right) go about their business as if nothing happened. In fact, the bigger the grift, the bigger the monstrous behavior, the more popular they become (see, also, Donald Trump.)

But the fear of being “canceled” is REALLY POWERFUL in that most critical of electoral subgroups — the conservative-who-isn’t-MAGA. I’ve tried to be as empathetic as possible to these fears and I think what’s going on is something like this: it’s a wedge issue that is actually more a fear about the general accelerated social changes in America than it is an actual fear of being “canceled.”

Conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA are really freaked out by some of the rhetoric coming from “AOC+3” that is being articulated just as they’re barely processing gay marriage, #MeToo and the growing acceptance of critical race theory. It’s just that of all those abstract fears “cancel culture” is the one that (I guess?) has a grain of truth to it….but not for the average conservative in their practical everyday life.

Or, put another way, if you live within the Fox News bullshit echochamber and accept their cultural short hand and touchstones, then, yes, you probably have a litany of “average people” who have been canceled ranging from “angry Google engineer” to Bari Weiss. There’s a certain amount of confirmation basis going on — you want to believe these people’s careers tanked because they were “canceled,” so that’s what happened.

And, yet, I find the passion that conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA have over their fear of being “canceled,” well, kind of weird. We have (at least until January 20th) a raging madman monster as president who definitely hasn’t been canceled and probably will come back in 2024 stronger than ever. (I still doubt he’s ever leaving office for any reason.)

Regardless, the abstract notion of being “canceled” (essentially) for simply being conservative in a progressive society is I guess what the real fear is. But the whole thing seems a bit contrived for the specific purpose of “owning libs” on Twitter and wallowing in the hate of MAGA. Or, to put it another way, I would rather risk being canceled than hand the keys to the nation over to an insane moron like Donald Trump for another four years.

The Big Punt


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve long talked about “A Big Ugly” happening if Trump mysteriously — especially now — “doesn’t lose.” Well, it’s at least possible that a unique set of political circumstances we’re just going to punt the consequences of the existential rot facing America down the road a few years.

Or maybe not.

I still can’t imagine Interior Minister Bill Barr just giving up and letting Trump actually lose. It makes no sense. But if somehow Barr DOESN’T pull something of his butt to keep Trump in power, then it’s very possible that for about 50% of the population the Biden Era will simply be a House Trump Interregnum. And either they try to violently end that interregnum, or they win in 2024 and force the hand of the OTHERSIDE and all my nightmare scenarios happen that way.

Or, put another way, seeing a MAGA rally face-to-face this weekend was a real wakeup call. MAGA isn’t going anywhere and their devotion to Trump is so absolute that it’s inevitable that they’re going to destroy the United States one way or another.

Hopefully I’m wrong. I often (obviously) am.

Bill Barr’s Coming(?) Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason why I’m beginning to wonder if Bill Barr is going to stage a coup or not is, well, politically the decision has been made — Trump lost. And, yet, it would also make a huge amount of sense for Barr to pull something out of his butt so The Dear Leader mysteriously gets a second term.

Though, one has to note that such a legal coup would not happen in a vacuum. A civil war or revolution would almost certainly erupt even if Barr managed to pull it off. Or, put another way, while on paper TrumpBarr has every reason to believe they could successfully pull off a coup by fucking around with the “legal” votes, there would be consequences.

But what, exactly, might Barr do?

I dunno. I don’t know enough about this particular subject to be able to tell you. Maybe sue the states so the vote isn’t certified, it goes to Congress, then SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose?”

All I know is, Barr still has about a month to pull something out of his butt. Autocrats never lose. So, it makes sense that Barr is just plotting right now and will spring out of his hole at some point between now and when the votes are certified and the Electors vote.

‘The Trump Party’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It would make a lot of sense for the Republican Party to die and transform itself into, simply, The Trump Party. It would do away with any misunderstanding — the Republican Party is Trump and Trump is the Republican Party.

The upside to this would be there would be a sizable number of Republicans who would balk at this and, for maybe one presidential election cycle, the Right would be split. But soon enough the rump Republican Party would wither away, leaving a transformed Republican Party in the guise of a Trump Party that would have Nazi levels of devotion to Trump.

It would be far, far easier, than, for Trump to be an actual autocrat because any Trump Party elected official or government employee would do whatever the Dear Leader needed them to do. At last, there would be no issue regarding a Republican being a “RINO.” By definition, if you were in the Trump Party, you would have absolute devon to the Leader.

And that would be how America really did turn into the Weimar Republic. So, maybe it’s a good thing that there’s still a Republican Party that’s simply dominated and terroized by House Trump, not totally controlled by it?

Cancel Thanksgiving


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All things being equal, we need to cancel 2020’s Thanksgiving. I’m not an expert on viral transmission, so please ignore me with extreme prejudice, but it makes sense that Thanksgiving would be national superspreader event waiting to happen.

We’re already projected, as I understand, to reach 2,000-3,000 daily deaths by mid-December, so having a bunch of people — many of them elderly — cooped up in a home together without masks for a long weekend doesn’t seem like all that great an idea.

But, of course, since we have a deranged moron as our president at least until January 20th, there’s a good chance we will have zero national leadership on this subject. Any “canceling” of Thanksgiving will happen in fits and starts and according to where you sit on the political spectrum.

So, we really are going to have a “dark winter.” By January 20th, 2021, we may have a daily COVID19 death toll reaching something close to 10,000. It definitely seems as though at a minimum we,we are going to reach the 600,000 dead of the 1918 – 1920 Spanish flu very, very soon.

Trump’s Three Pronged Coup: Media Narrative Management, SCOTUS & Insurrection Act


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot going on right now. Trump is using the Spaghetti Gambit to see how far he can get towards an actual coup. Is still may not happen, but we’re going to get the shit scared out of us at least twice between now and January 20th: certification of votes and the actual voting of the Electors.

Here are the three methods Trump is going to use to at least come within shouting distance of an actual, God’s honest coup.

  1. Media Narrative Management
    Trump really, really screwed up when he didn’t strike before the media called the election. But now that he’s getting his wits about him again, he’s going to use an “army” of online trolls (probably all bought and paid for by Putin) to make to seem — at least in the media’s view — “inevitable” that Trump will win one way or another.
  2. SCOTUS
    This is important because if there are any questions about Electors voting or their naming (or whatever) Trump knows he will absolutely win at SCOTUS, no matter what. It’s his fail safe.
  3. Insurrection Act
    Should there be any political violence — even violence that his own followers incite — he will invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.” The only upside for us is he’s such an idiot that once he does take “total control” then he’s tipped his hand and it’s going to be a whole lot harder for him to actually keep it. Not saying he won’t be able to, but it will be far more difficult because Twitter liberals are going to, at last, realize they have to risk real things in the real world.

The Trump Coup That Wasn’t (But Was)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is so divided right now, that it’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump stages some sort of coup and only half the population sees it for what it is. The other half will look at Trump ratfucking of the usual procedures and say, “I thought a coup was supposed to be extra-political?”

Now, that’s what Republicans are thinking going into whatever coup attempt they settle on. It worked for them with the 2000 election, it worked with The Mueller Report and it work with the snap nomination and confirmation of Amey Coney Barrett. Why wouldn’t think they could pull off a coup if only 50% of the population thought one happened?

We have a whole month for Barr it pull something out of his ass or for Republicans to bully the Republican controlled legislatures of various swing states until they just throw up their hands and nullify it all, asking Congress and SCOTUS to sort things out.

The law on all of this is so bad that Trump wins because it goes to SCOTUS and, duh, they rule in his favor. Then half the country things there’s a coup and half doesn’t and, well, something bad is going to happen. Especially if you factor in Trump probably invoking the Insurrection Act.

Given how slipshod and disorganize the Trump Administration is, it’s easy to imagine they stage a coup, it works at first (because of the Insurrection Act) but in the end it all collapses on them because they can’t figure out what to do next. But the endgame would be the same — the United States would be would collapse.

What happens next would be up to us.