Category: Tsar-A-Largo

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I do not want a civil war. I do not want a revolution. But everyone else seems to have these potential events on the brain, so let’s contemplate some “problem areas.”

The first thing to remember is if things get really bad, and it seems like there is going to be a civil war or revolution, many, many, many people are going to flee their homes so where they actually live fits their politics better. This is going to be not only scary, but the first real sign that the USA is going to implode soon.

And, remember, the nastiness thing about civil war or revolution is all those Blue cities in Red states will be flashpoints for some pretty horrible, horrific events. Many people will die. It’s even possible that crazed rural people will “empty” a city and murder its residents in Kill Fields-like cold blood.

Yikes.

Here are some areas around the country that will be real problems in the event of a civil war or revolution.

1. Virginia
   This is an obvious problem area. Virginia is two states, one Red, one Blue fused together who hate each other with growing rage. If the country implodes then the state will implode into intra-state political violence. It’s going to be like the Balkans in Virginia with very messy attempts to unite the state one way or another. A lot — A LOT — of people will die needlessly for a very dumb reason
2. Oregon
   This state also is kind of two states fused together. I don’t know the intra-state politics of Oregon very well, but it’s my impression that its coast is liberal and its interior is conservative. I could see the state imploding like Virginia and a there being a real attempt by the Reds to take Portland out of spite, if nothing else.
3. Ohio
   This is not as obvious, but Ohio is very much like, say, Poland. It’s got high population density and it’s strategic. It’s also very Red and I could see if Blues somehow got to the point where they were re-uniting the nation under their standard that Ohio would probably be a bloodbath the likes of which have not been seen since WW2.
   
   And, lastly, remember that if there is a revolution or civil war that WMD will be used by both sides AND there could be a race war in the South. So, there you go. Hopefully we won’t have to think about any of this in any serious way in the real world — ever.

The American Century is over. Full stop. We’ve got a clown in the White House, and whether by accident or design, he’s doing a remarkable job of tearing the country apart. Some days it’s hard not to wonder if Trump is secretly working for Moscow.

If we were being honest with ourselves, we’d face reality: it’s time to “bring the boys home.” Slash the defense budget. Pull the troops back. Admit we can’t afford to be the world’s policeman anymore—especially when our own social safety net has been gutted under the same excuse of “saving money.” The logical move would be to embrace Fortress America. The world might collapse into chaos, but at least we’d be honest about who we are and what we’re willing (or unwilling) to do.

There is, oddly enough, one possible silver lining: if we stop spending trillions overseas, maybe we could finally afford something like Universal Basic Income. Maybe. But let’s be real—our leaders have shown us who they are. If there’s extra cash lying around, they’d rather chase trillionaire status than fix inequality.

And inequality is the elephant in the room. The gap between the haves and have-nots is now so obscene that it feels unstable. I don’t think revolution or civil war is likely, but I can imagine a scenario where tech upheaval—AI, automation, the looming Singularity—pushes the poor and working class past their breaking point.

Do I think it’ll happen? No. But am I worried enough to keep one eye on the possibility? Yeah.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Unless something really, really, really unexpected happens, we’re totally fucked in regards to MAGA going forward. Or, put another way, there seems to be a spectrum when it comes to MAGA: either we go full blown autocracy or there’s a civil war / revolution.

I just don’t see us having a civil war / revolution, so autocracy it is. Though, I will admit that we have something of a slow cold civil war going on at the moment. The country is being torn apart by macro forces beyond anyone’s control.

There are all sorts of solutions had Democrats gotten there act together, say, in 2015, but we were all so busy assuming the good times would last forever that we didn’t realize how important it would when Biden decided NOT to run in 2016.

And, yet, because Trump is such a both weird and inevitable historical character, he, or someone much like him, was inevitable in American political history starting around 2016. Something about the social progress that happened during Obama’s second term really cracked the minds of conservative white Americans. As such, I fear someone like Trump was going to arise as an reaction.

But, the point is — it’s over. The America I knew and loved is no more. The plum of autocratic smoke from Mt. Trump has reached the horizon, to use an extended metaphor. Even under the best of circumstances, it would take a generation to fix all the fucking damage that Trump and MAGA have done to the country.

So, America is going to grow weaker, have more income inequality and probably eventually align itself with other autocratic states. And that doesn’t even begin to address what the fuck is going to happen when the technological Singularity finally happens.

Anyway. It’s over, folks. Good luck.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All of this is very speculative, but if you take Trump’s expressed desires to their logical conclusion, it seem inevitable there will be some sort of “New World Order” established by him soon.

What I imagine it would look like is something like this — the USA will destroy NATO and, instead, align itself with Russia, Hungary and Turkey. It will begin to pull troops out of nations across the globe, the better to police the streets of an ever-more-militarized America.

All of this will happen in the context of taxes being cut and cut and cut for the wealthy — probably to zero, the rise of AI / androids and maybe, just maybe the replacement of the entire social safety net with a very weak and low UBI. And there probably will be a 30% VAT.

That, my dear friends, seems to be our “day after tomorrow” future.

The only potential “zag” that might happen is, well, some sort of revolution / civil war. If that happened, it would be very, very nasty. I could definitely see a race war happening in the USA as well as the use of WMD throughout the country by both sides.

Anyway. That seems like one potential future for us going forward.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can tell you from person experience that the wheels are beginning to fly off the United States government. Things that should be perfunctory are just not happening the way they should be. It’s enough to give one pause for thought.

The thing I keep thinking is — is Trump a Russian agent?

All the bullshit that Trump and his toadies are doing are just the type of things that a Russian agent POTUS would do. Wreck the economy. Wreak the post-WW2 liberal order. Abolish American soft power. You name it, Trump (and Must) it’s being done.

And, yet, here we are. Even if could *prove* Trump was a traitor, he would still have a rock solid approval rating of about 37%. That’s why there are a few ways this goes — Blue revolution then civil war, autocracy, or something on the spectrum between the two.

But…I just don’t see Blues having the guts to depose Trump. He’s proven that there are no guard rails and, lulz, nothing matters. We’re totally fuck, folks.