Well, I was right about there being something of a Republican civil war because of Ukraine, with the MAGA base following the lead of Trump and the Republican Establishment wanting to support Ukraine.
And, yet, I suspect it’s never going to come up to the point of a “civil war.” I think there will just be a lot of tension between the two groups. Remember, Trump can always take his scrambled marbles — the base — and go home if the Establishment gets too frisky.
So, ultimately, what will happen is Republicans rather than have any civil war will simply ignore that they’re trying to square the circle in the first place. Trump, his toadies and the base will continue to suck Putin’s cock and the Republican Establishment will continue to support Ukraine against Russia. Because everything is dumb, both things will be true and Republicans won’t event acknowledge this existential conflict.
It looks as though Russia may go after not just the east of Ukraine, but all of it. If they did, in fact, do that, then there are estimates that as many as 5 million Ukrainians might flee that country.
Which, of course, raises the question — where the hell would that many people go?
The obvious answer is Canada. That country already has a sizable Ukrainian population and the addition of a few million more for such an underpopulated country would probably help their economy a great deal. Then, there is the US. This is a lot more problematic given how nativist the America First cocksuckers of MAGA and Fox News are these days.
But it’s not impossible to see a pretty massive migration of Ukrainians from Europe to North America. It could be, in fact, the biggest such forced migration since the end of WW2. Though one has to note that a lot of Hungarians fled to the West after the 1956 uprising there was crushed by the Soviets.
One issue that might soften the blow for the typical American is, of course, race. It’s a lot more difficult for the fucking racists of MAGA and Fox News to shoot blood out of their eyes over letting in a few million people if they’re white. A lot of them would not speak English, but that can be fixed soon enough.
Also greasing their entry into America would be a lot of the Ukrainians would be highly educated and highly trained. In fact, if you wanted to paint the rosiest possible picture of what might might happen if a few million Ukrainians fled to the US, one might suggest that they would really help the American economy in more ways than one.
Because they would be considered “white” by fucking racist cocksuckers on the far Right, if they started to take jobs that no one in America wanted to take as they built a new home in America then, well, maybe some of the nationalist pressure for us to become a Russian-style autocracy might ease. A little bit.
Well, it definitely seems as though H-Hour for a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War is upon us. If it’s going to happen — which I still don’t know for a fact it will — it’s probably going to start between now, Feb 20th and tomorrow, Feb 21. Though there’s a small chance it could be as late as the 22nd.
That was then…
…this is now.
But “tora tora tora” is going to happen either tonight or tomorrow night. I keep hearing weird pings indicating either night. The Biden Administration definitely seems to think it’s going to be tonight. And, yet, a number of top Russian politicians keep saying things which would indicate it’s going to be tomorrow.
Let me be clear — I don’t know anything. You should probably just aggressively ignore my opinion on this matter. But I do have opinions, nonetheless. And it definitely seems as though at least the Biden Administration believes that we have one more sleep until Something Big happens between Ukraine and Russia. Maybe even the biggest war in Europe since WW2. (Though, in all fairness, it’s probably the biggest war since the ’68 crushing of Prague Spring.)
Anyway, it’s at least possible that whatever is going to happen is going to begin just as the Olympics are wrapping up in China tomorrow evening. So, it could be that Sunday, February 20th is D-Day. Or not. I’ve decided that anytime between now and roughly February 22nd would be the “sweetspot” for an attack if it’s going to happen.
Or maybe it’s not going to happen at all.
But it definitely SEEMS as though Something Big and Something Bad is going to happen very, very soon. I still have my doubts that much, if any, of the things we’re all that worried about at the moment will make it through the “vibe shift” that a major land war in Europe would entail.
A number of signs all point towards some sort of major military event happening between Russia and Ukraine on or around February 20th. The Olympics are set to end on that date. The Russians are set to rattle their nuclear sabers around then. And, in general, the Russians waiting until around then would allow the to get everything in place to strike.
Because the issue is — for all the Russian declarations about standing down and everyone going back to base, this is not, in fact happening. All the OSINT that I see on Twitter indicates that rather than standing down, the Russians are aggressively positioning their forces closer and closer to the Ukrainian border.
This is the point where I note that I always get things wrong. Always. So, I would take my prediction with a grain of salt. It could be that for various tactical reasons — the weather, Xi’s request for a week global peace after the Olympics, you name it — that it could be as late as February 26th.
Or it may not happen at all.
I can’t predict the future. But as of right now, the night of February 20th US EST seems about right. Though, the counter argument is the Russians would wait until Monday morning EST to get their maximum bang for their buck when it comes to shocking the American audience.
War At the moment, it seems as though there’s going to be a major war in Europe. It hasn’t happened yet, so it still may not. It’s possible that a huge chunk of Ukraine will be eaten by Russia and a lot of people will die needless deaths. Along the way, the Ukrainian government might collapse.
Peace In Our Time In this scenarios, we barely avert war because the Ukrainians give in to the Russian demands. But folding on the part of the Ukrainian government leads to a popular revolt within the citizenship and…and the government collapses, which given the Russians the excuse they need to…invade Ukraine.
This is All A Flex It’s still possible that Putin is doing all of this just to fuck with us and rather than pulling the trigger one way or the other, he draws down his forces as suddenly as he built them up and we, thankfully, move on to something else.
Welp. Apparently we’ve been given our 48 hour warning for a Russo-Ukrainian Winter War. It’s probably going to happen — if it does happen — at some point between now and no later than February 15 (probably the 14th).
First, we have to prepare ourselves for American civilian expats to come home in body bags. I’m assuming there are too many of them to leave in time. And there’s a chance that the entirety of Ukraine will go tits up soon after any invasion begins. So, there’s that to think about.
And, remember, the moment a war starts, everything in the United States will be thrown up in the air because there is a finite amount of air in the public sphere for attention. So, in a sense, Trump might escape AGAIN simply because we’re so busy thinking about 5 million Ukrainian refugees that we don’t have time to worry about his bullshit.
Or something.
And now, in just the last little bit, we’ve learned there is some confusion coming out the US government as to what, exactly, is going to happen. What I think is happening is Biden told allies he thinks Putin has made up his mind and that promptly leaked out. Meanwhile, the rest of the government is publicly saying Putin HASN’T made up his mind in hopes of preventing the whole thing having an air of inevitability to it.
I would, however, suggest you keep Twitter and CNN / MSNBC close for the next few days. Go time will probably be in the 6:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. EST time frame, whatever day it does — or doesn’t happen.
It takes a lot more than it did for Trump to make me angry. And my Traditionalists relatives think I’m being “hysterical” for thinking Trump is going to run again — especially if he gets into serious legal trouble — so, meh. Their only red line is personal when it comes to Trump — and by personal, I mean me dead in a ditch at the hands of ICE. THEN, and only THEN they will get upset about what an autocrat Trump is.
Then I’ll be dead.
And I won’t be “hysterical” anymore because I’ll be dead.
Fuck that, by the way.
Anyway, the news that Trump did on a massive scale exactly what Hillary Clinton was accused of when it came to classified documents enrages me. Makes me white hot with rage. Makes me pop a gasket with rage. Makes me want to throw myself into the five novels that no one in my family cares about. (That was the point of writing the novels in the first place — to give myself some outlet for my center-of-the-sun-rage over the Trump Administration.)
What makes me so angry is every argument that my Traditionalists relatives would make to knee-jerk defend Trump because they hate my politics could be used to defend Hillary Clinton in 2016. But any argument that I make that works too well is “bogus.”
The thing that makes all of this worse is, in the end, Trump’s eating of classified documents, his flushing them down the toilet, will only last less than one news cycle. So, Hillary’s “but her emails” lasted for months and months and months and Trump doing far, far worse is just a blip on the media scene.
I do have one question — what, exactly, were the nature of the classified documents Trump wanted to keep? Was he stealing specific documents that had to do with Russia, Ukraine, the DPRK or the Saudis? If any of those nations were involved, well, that takes the controversy to the next level.
Then it will be promptly forgotten. Trump runs again, (“No he won’t,” I hear you say.) wins and I get to be hysterical and peddling doom shit again.
Let me begin by saying I’m not an expert on Canadian culture and or politics and this is just a gauzy reflection on what little I know about the place. But the key issue is — the current “Make Canada Great Again” anti-vaccine mandate trucker camp out in Ottawa is dangerous.
I say this because the entire anglophone world is in crisis. And, even more importantly, Canada has such a small population that the whole “5%” of the population rule to make a revolution is even more timely.
So, it’s at least possible to imagine a situation where the truckers spark something that is marketed as a “Right wing revolution” in Canada. This, in turn, would embolden the fucking insane Right wing nutjobs in the United States.
Or, put another way — keep an eye on Canada. It might grow a lot more unstable in the near future than any of us in North America — and beyond — may like.
The thing about any geopolitical issue is you just never know. It’s why any discussion — especially on Twitter — about this or that potential geopolitical hotspot should be left to the experts.
But, lulz, that’s never stopped me before. So, here’s my unfounded speculation about why the US is flying surveillance aircraft at night over Ukraine, which apparently is very rarely, if ever, seen.
REDEYE6 over Ukraine. Looked at southeast Belarus, now heading to look over the border into Russia. Local time 01:37. Again, for what it's worth, this type of aircraft has never been observed flying over Ukraine at this time of day pic.twitter.com/cmrhVtMgdq
So, what does it mean? Why are they doing it now? What has spooked them into doing something so unusual. I honestly have no idea. But I do think we may be in something akin to the “red zone” that will span between now and, say, March 1st.
A lot depends on what Putin and Xi said to each other over the last few days at the Olympics. It could be that Xi gave Putin a greenlight to attack ASAP, or it could be all of this means nothing and we just wait and see.
But I’m going to continue to keep an eye on all of this.
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