Category: Tsar-A-Largo

When Might A Russo-Ukrainian War Begin?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m beginning to think I was wrong — AGAIN — to even contemplate Russia invading Ukraine anytime soon. But, I will note in passing that Putin has something of a deadline at the moment if he wants to lean into the symbolism of Christmas Eve – Christmas Day timeframe

The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan on Christmas Eve, 1979. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union officially dissolved at noon on Christmas Day, 1991. So, if Putin wants to change the narrative from “30 years since the end of the Soviet Union” to “Holy shit, the Russians have invaded Ukraine” they need to do it, like RIGHT NOW.

If it were to happen, Something Big would probably begin to happen mid-to-late afternoon EST. If we make it to Christmas Eve evening EST without a major Russian cyber attack against Ukraine or any number of other hostile actions, then, lulz, we’ve passed the “twofer” moment.

After that, it could be anytime between now and either Orthodox Christmas or Orthodox New Year’s that the Russo-Ukrainian War might begin. I’m beginning to think that, thankfully, for the near term, things are going to be a dud.

It may happen, just not immediately.

A Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Could Begin Any Moment (Or Not)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still very reluctant to believe a major war between Russia and Ukraine is about to break out, but there are some interesting metrics to look at of late. For me, the chief issue is exactly when that paratrooper drop is supposed to happen today.

If it happens in broad daylight, then, lulz, we can take it at face value.

But if it happens after dark, then I’m going to grow really nervous. And the later is happens at night, the more ominous its meaning would become. Because it would be a lot more difficult to track exactly where the drop happened. So, what if instead of Crimea and just to the east of Donbas, the airdrop was in Ukraine proper and the whole thing is a setup for a full blown invasion tomorrow, Christmas Eve?

There is so much I don’t know. Wouldn’t there be a lot of alarming scurrying be seen around Ukraine as everyone turned their tank on and started racing towards the border? Seems like that, unto itself, would take time. Enough time that it wouldn’t be Christmas Eve, but rather something closer to New Year’s. But what do I know?

All I know is the next 24 to 48 hours are critical. If we can get past that time, then I think we’ve passed an immediate danger. And invasion might still happen, but once you get pass starting a major war on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the end of the Soviet Union, then, lulz. You can pretty much do it anytime you want.

I’m always wrong, so I’m not prepared to say a war is actually going to start anytime soon — if ever — but it is something to keep an eye on for the next few days.

Mulling A Russo-Ukrainian War Starting On Christmas Eve


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, Putin loves to fuck with the West when it comes to his military plans. He always does things in such a way that it’s all very nebulous and up to interpretation until it isn’t.

So, when I heard that there were going to be paratrooper drops around Ukraine today and it was all a “drill” I took it at face value until something occurred to me — a likely first step of any invasion of Ukraine by Russia would be….large-scale paratrooper drops.

As such it’s at least possible that all those paratroopers are going to accidently on purpose fall not in Russian controlled territory but…whoopsie…inside Ukraine.

They would prep the way for a large scale invasion on Christmas Eve and away we go. I am still don’t believe any such thing is going to happen, but it is at least…possible.

That Report Of A Christmas Eve Start To A Russo-Ukrainian War Is Probably An Intelligence Op


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more I think the idea that the Daily Star, of all papers, would get a scoop on the beginning of a war between Russia and Ukraine was released as something of a psyop. It was released to them not because it’s not true, but MI5 or MI6 didn’t feel like sticking its neck out on something it could not absolutely prove.

So, it arranged to release what it did know to one of the least credible news sources in Great Britain, knowing that Americans wouldn’t know how dubious the source was and would just hear, “Russia to attack on Dec. 24th.” That way, if the attack DIDN’T come, then, it’s a lulz.

But if it did happen, then everyone would be so busy being aghast at what we were seeing on our TV screens to think about where we first heard that it might actually happen.

I still am very dubious about there being any war at all, but we’ll see I guess.

A Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Starting Christmas Eve May Help Trump Escape Accountability, Again


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If, as is currently being suggested, Russia is going to attack Ukraine in a major way on Christmas Eve, it’s very possible that all of Trump’s political and criminal concerns will simply fade away. Such a huge war in Europe would suck up all the attention in the United States and dramatically change the domestic media narrative.

Instead of things like COVID19 and Trump being a seditious piece of shit, all those scary images of war in Europe and the prospect of WW3 will be what everyone will be talking about. I still think there is a decent chance that Trump and Putin still talk to each other and Trump knows it’s not the 2022 mid-terms that will save him, but rather Putin invading Ukraine this year that will save him.

The fucking Patriot Party flag. Cocksuckers.

By the time we come to grips with what is going on with Ukraine, three crucial months may have elapsed. We’ll wake up from our daze to discover, mysteriously, that Trump has gotten off scot free and is well on his way to becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.

Or, put another way, on paper at least, Trump’s historical work isn’t done quite yet. He still has to finish the job he started. And even if he somehow doesn’t become president again, someone else is going to murder American democracy. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat and either we slip peacefully into autocracy or we have a civil war.

I still don’t know which one it will be, but I’m leaning towards a peaceful transition into autocracy. I will have a better sense of things in 2023, once we find out if Trump is going to be named speaker or not.

Holy Shit, Is Russia Going To Attack Ukraine Christmas Eve?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

According to somewhat dubious reports in the British press, British intelligence believes there is a “strong possibility” that Russia will invade Ukraine on Christmas Eve.

Now, I’m of the opinion that this isn’t going to happen for a lot of reasons, chief among them being Ukraine is going to blink and give Russia whatever it wants. But if a huge war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, it would definitely be enough to throw American domestic politics into chaos.

I say this because Trump is such a Putin knob polisher that just Trump blabbing about how Ukraine “isn’t a real country” could be enough to cause something of a civil war between MAGA and the Republican Establishment. Or not. Trump has such absolute power over Republicans that could be a moot issue.

And, as I understand it, there are two historical issues that would lead Putin to attack on Christmas Eve. One, that is same day the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and, two, it would change the narrative about the 30th anniversary of the demise of the Soviet Union.

It would also change the media narrative in the US. It’s possible that the January 6th investigation will fade into oblivion because we’ll all be glued to our TVs watching the Russians start a massive war in Europe that might be compared to WW3. I still believe Trump may know this and he knows that all his political problems will fade away as everyone’s attention turns to Russia-Ukraine.

But we still don’t know yet.

Stay tuned.

Future History: The Omega Variant


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My fear at the moment is we’re not looking at the COVID19 pandemic in the right way. In fact, we need to readjust what we think the endgame may be. What if, in a sense, we’re all lulled into a false sense of security by COVID19 gradually being considered endemic.

And then, a year or two years from now, largely because of people refusing to vaccinated, it’s possible that really, really deadly version of COVID19 — the Omega Variant — might pop out. So, while everyone keeps taking about how “next time” will be a lot worse, it could be the Fire Next Time is nothing more than the Fire This Time rebooted.

So, not only could this be The New Normal, but it’s also possible that all of this is the set up for a far darker situation at some point in the future. And should the Omega Variant happen, it would happen with no notice. We would just wake up one day to news that the number of people dying from COVID has jumped from 2,000 a day to 10,000 (or more) a day.

And away we go.

If we were talking 10,000+ people dying a day in the United States of a COVID19 variant, it would freak everyone out and greatly change the political equation. Now, a lot of this would obviously depend on vaccines and therapeutics not working. If vaccines were really working and it was 10,000+ UNvaccinated people dying a day…oh boy.

Anyway, I suggest we reflect on what’s going on and COVID19 and maybe change our expectations some.

Please, Gonzo Texas Mercenaries, Descend On Ukraine — They Need You


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love Ukraine because, as a nation, they’ve been shit on by the Russians, then Soviets, then the Nazis, then the Soviets again and have managed to maintain their culture and honor. In fact, Ukraine is somewhere I would love to live long-term at some point just to drink a huge amount of vodka and trade stories about stupid shit we’ve all done while drunk.

Anyway, the point is — it’s my impression that there is this amorphous blob of Texas-based mercenaries who go to hot spots all over the globe and kick ass. Now, for political reasons, most of these guys (and gals?) would probably hate my guts, but on a personal basis, I think we would get along pretty well. I’ve had plenty of bonkers MAGA people as friends in the past. (I will note that this was before Trump became president, but, lulz.)

The point is — I hope some of those Texas cowboys are in Ukraine right now. Things could get desperate for the people of Ukraine if, say, 175,000 Russians crash into the country and it sure would help if a few thousand highly trained Texans were to go First Blood on the Russians in eastern Ukraine as they try to consolidate power.

Let’s rock.

Some ‘What’s The Craic?’ #Podcast Episodes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Some of my recent podcasts.

How The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War Might Play Out


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a nobody. I don’t know anything. But I like to run scenarios. And I know enough about what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine to get myself in trouble. So, here goes.

Stage 1
I imagine what would happen is there would be a huge artillery barrage to soften up the front line. The footage of this happening would scare the shit out of the domestic American audience and be the thing that pushed everything else off the front page for a few days (months? forever?)

Stage 2
This is would be make or break for Ukraine. If after 24-48 hours of artillery attack they weren’t able to prove their mettle in the first encounters with the Russians, it’s possible the Russians might make a break for Kiev. The logic would be — capture Kiev and force the Ukrainians to sue for peace. If, however, the Ukrainians do a good job, then, Russians probably will settle for a smash-and-grab operation that has far more modest objectives.

Stage 3
Now we come to the stage where long term, the Russians just can’t win and makes you wonder what the fuck they’re up to. History and human nature tells us that even if the Russians get all of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and all of Novorossiya as part of a comprehensive peace treaty after taking Kiev, there’s a good chance that there would be a long term pitched battle on a massive scale. It would be just like Afghanistan in the 80s, only with a huge population in a far more strategic location.

I’m at a loss as to why Putin can’t see the implications of Stage 3. It’s a mystery.