Long Answer: How long do you have? If you look at the chatter among the MAGA people interested in the subject of the Cyber Ninjas audit, you will see that they can’t bear to bring themselves to say what they believe: if Cyber Ninjas “prove” Trump “won” Arizona, they want a violent overthrow of the government.
They have come to combine the Cyber Ninjas bullshit with The Durham Report which is sort of the last vestiges of Trump’s attempt to get back at all the people connected to the Mueller Report.
So, if the Cyber Ninjas report ever is released and they uphold their end of the bargain and “prove” that Trump “won” Arizona then this would greatly destabilize the United States to the point that there might be decertification conventions, which become nullification conventions which become secession conventions.
Or, put another way, the conditions are there, yes, for a civil war because of the Cyber Ninjas bullshit audit. But at the moment, it seems as though they’re choking big time. They’re blowing it, which is good for the sake of the long-term stability of the country.
And, yet, we have to accept that under the surface the United States is so politically unstable and the MAGA New Right glorifies political violence so much that all we need is a unexpected pressure on the system and the whole thing could come falling down in a rather dramatic fashion.
All the conditions are there.
But, I’m beginning to think it’s not going to happen anytime soon. We’re just going to drift through things until about January 2025. Then all hell will break loose.
As it stands, for a lot of MAGA New Right cocksuckers, the idea of a “civil war” is simply the worst possible thing they can think of. They talk about how liberals are “forcing” them to radicalize and to want a civil war, but all that’s going on is they’re snowflakes and a civil war is just the worst possible thing they can think of that might happen.
They’re politically pouting, in other words.
And, yet, as January 6th showed, there comes a point where overwrought rhetoric causes something to actually happen in the real world. In other words, things continue to be pretty frothy within the MAGA New Right. Even though the majority of establishment Republicans have moved on to Ron DeSantis, Trump continues to have an absolute lock on his personality death cult. They can’t wrap their minds around the very liberal democracy concept of if you don’t get enough votes, you don’t get to have power, so they suck their own cock thinking up ways that Trump “really” won.
Where things get dangerous is when things in the real world begin to have a momentum out of the control of the establishment that just wants to sit back enjoy that plutocrat tax cut and young hack MAGA judges and think about how they’re going to finally strangle American democracy and rule as a minority.
So, in a sense, Trump is now a lingering, festering political problem that Republicans would rather just use an ointment on. He just won’t go away. And if he runs again in 2024, he’s going to win the nomination either by co-opting DeSantis or destroying him.
If Trump can just get out of the way, America is going to peacefully transition into an “lite touch” autocracy that is at first is an autocracy because the disconnect between the will of the people and who actually runs the country will be so enormous that all this talk about “don’t boo, vote” will be looked back upon as quaint. Voting will be meaningless and Republicans will so rig the system that they always win, no matter what.
People will stop voting and we become an autocracy.
Of course, as I keep “hysterically” saying, there are two things to consider with my “doom shit.” One is, this process could be bungled — probably because Trump tries to be the one to finish the transition into autocracy — or form follows function like it always does and the fascists of the MAGA New Right will become…fascists. They’ll realize they now have absolutely no checks on their power and they’ll start to knock heads –specifically, probably mine.
(Thankfully, I have a passport again, but, lulz.)
Anyway, let’s pause for a moment to ruminate on how “hysterical” I’m being. The type of person who calls me “hysterical,” probably is a traditional conservative who is so worried about “woke corporations” that they simply want to nullify any political argument they don’t like. They can’t comphrend my “doom shit” happening in the United States, so, by definition, it can’t happen.
Lulz!
And, in a sense, they know they won’t have anything to worry about if a MAGA New Right autocracy is established — they always follow the rules — so it’s all an abstract. They have a job and kids and a mortgage to worry about. For me, however, since I won’t fucking shut up about what a fucking cocksuckers our new autocratic overlords are, I have some very concrete things I have to worry about.
And, in general, given what I keep seeing actually happening, people who claim my belief that we have the existential choice of autocracy or civil war ahead of us is “doom shit” are living a delusion. Soon enough, either we accept that Republicans have established white Christian minority rule, or we don’t. Either the transition into autocracy is peaceful and long-lasting, or it’s not.
I hate violence, but we definitely need to start thinking about what happens if the MAGA New Right either bungles what should be a peaceful transition into autocracy or they start to believe their own press about how great and wonderful a civil war would be. (Ugh.)
Anyway, every day I see evidence I’m not being “hysterical” and my “doom shit” is just reality. Now what.
Let’s look at what — apparently — the two sides fear when it comes to our political future.
Red (MAGA New Right) From what I can tell, when the autocracy comes most of the MAGA New Right will either be oblivious or not give a shit. After all, an autocracy ensures they get what they want for the foreseeable future. Reds are, however, touchy about the idea that people like me will be able to point to the autocracy and say, “I was right. We have an autocracy.” So, in a sense, they want it both ways — they want to destroy America and establish permanent white minority rule, but they don’t want anyone to talk about it. (Which, I guess, is natural for an autocracy run by a minority.)
Also, Reds have a severe abstract fear of being canceled. They think, by definition, that being conservative risks having their lives destroyed by not following the evil Blue-Liberal-Progressive Media Narrative.
I’m a fact-based person and there is some validity to this fear. But to believe that we have more to fear from woke corporations than from a future MAGA New Right autocratic government is a huge stretch.
It all boils down to traditional conservatives on a basic level hate anything and I mean ANYTHING that doesn’t fit THEIR media narrative generated, at its heart, by News Corp’s bullshit. They usually won’t admit that their talking points come from FOX News or the WSJ Editorial Page – they can get really worked up about that, in fact — but those talking points are just that, talking points. Regardless of where they came from.
Or, put another way, traditional not-MAGA conservatives feel, becuase of negative polarization, that they don’t have anywhere to turn other than the fascist MAGA New Right and so, in the end, they’ll just be Good Germans while people like me who won’t shut up will get a bullet to the head by an ICE agent.
Whenever I mention this, I’m called hysterical. Conservatives are just not willing to give any credence to my very concrete fears that because I won’t fucking shut up no matter WHO tells me to do so “for the sake of the family” that in the end they’re going to weigh their personal blood connection to me with the demands of a MAGA autocratic state.
By the time they get around to figuring out which thing is more important, I’m dead in a ditch somewhere not being “hysterical” anymore because I’m fucking dead.
And, yet, because those are Blue abstract fears, the Reds I know lulz them all.
Blue Now, the issue is, I’m not all that liberal-progressive. But I am extremely anti-MAGA New Right. Even though I burn with a white hot rage against the MAGA New Right, on a practical level, I see conservatism as a perfectly legitimate political force in the United States.
What I can’t stand, however, is the MAGA New Right’s coy embrace of fascism that they sell to conservatives by telling them their lives are going to be destroyed by Cancel Culture or that their children will hate them because they were taught Critical Race Theory.
The MAGA New Right is based on a lie that, at its heart, is inspired by conservative white people on a macro basis being afraid of losing power as America grows more and more brown. (Oh my God, have I discovered Critical Race Theory?)
The interesting thing about the attack on Critical Race Theory on the part of the MAGA New Right is they want to make ANY discussion of the influence of race on American politics soooooo fucking loaded and touchy that you can’t even have a conversation about it with someone who doesn’t politically agree with you. Remember, the more traditional “tolerant democracy” politics locks up, the more power the MAGA New Right gets.
So while conservatives are freaking the fuck out about “woke corporations” the MAGA New Right is destroying the very basic fabric of the democracy we’ve enjoyed for 240 years and, by the way, America is a republic not a democracy so fuck you, lib.
I have repeatedly admitted that I was wrong about Trump — not that that has mattered any. Libs are always wrong and they’re going to hell, to, so lulz. I was wrong about Trump because he talked like an autocrat but in the end could not follow through.
But, on an systemic level, the Republican Party is now autocratic so, lulz, the moment they have power again — no matter how they get it — they will make it so they never fucking ever leave power again. When every election you have is existential, that’s not a great sign for your republic — or democracy.
In the end, what I think is going to happen is a lot of anti-MAGA thinkers (both liberal-progressives and #NeverTrumpers) are going to grow hysterical as we slip peacefully into autocracy. And that will be that. The media will be purged, I will be “right” but in the end because the personal lives of the conservaives I know won’t change — in fact, they’ll be happier — then, well, that’s it.
They might grow alarmed when I get “disappeared ” buy they tried to tell me near the end that things had changed and…I just wouldn’t shut up about how President DeSantis is a fucking cocksucker. What else did I expect was going to happen?
Compromise Is Weakness This is a very corrosive development that has caused the effective death of American politics, full stop. When you realize that any effort at political comity is a waste of time, then, lulz, what’s the point of talking about politics in the first place. When you realize that any political debate will turn in a screaming match, what’s the point?
Conservatives Have Permission Structure To Be MAGA Even bedrock conservatives who claim to not like the excesses of MAGA vote for MAGA now on a regular basis. They have an extensive permission structure to vote for MAGA — and, soon, Trump without Trump — and so the rise of fascism in the United States is now an immutable law of American political history –we’re fucked.
Systemic Republican Radicalization On a basic, systemic basis, the Republican Party is growing ever-more radical to the point that by 2024 white nationalism and political violence will be seen as a lulz. They will do whatever necessary to take and keep power forever. Prove me wrong, people who think I’m “hysterical” with my “doom shit.” What do I get if I’m right? A prize? Or a bullet in the back of the head from a ICE agent. If you “play by the rules” and are a Good German, you have nothing to worry about. But I’m a loudmouth who will never shut up about what a fucking cocksucker the autocratic of the moment is, so….I might have a little bit more to worry about then the “personal responsibility” rule followers who everyone seems to love?
Negative Polarization is All-Powerful As part of the aforementioned permission structure, negative polarization is so all powerful now that it’s impossible to make common cause with conservatives who claim they aren’t MAGA. What they don’t like is Trump — they love MAGA to the point that they totally embrace the “cruelty is the point” nature of the movement in general. I think this is the main difference between MAGA and the New Right.
Personal Political Interactions Have Broken Down I’ve completely stopped talking about politics with my far more conservative relatives because the risk that either they’re freak out on me or we’ll start screaming at each other is too high. This. Is. Not. Good. This is how the “bad guys” win. You’re just a brief jaunt away from a civil war if your individual, personal politics have locked up that much.
For some reason Rep. Paul Gosar has flipped out on Twitter because someone alleged that he’s a white nationalist. Given where the Republican Party is going at the moment, his freak out on this subject is very strange indeed.
It’s easy imagine a Republican Party by 2024 that IS white nationalist. Maybe because of how loaded the term is they will still get upset when someone calls them white nationalists, but everything they believe will BE white nationalist. The party is already there, in a sense with its embrace of “replacement theory” and it’s only going to get worse.
I guess, maybe Gosar wanted to make an example of someone so people would shut up about his connections to white nationalism. But by 2024 the Republican Party is going to be a full-on white nationalist fascist party. To be a Republican will mean to be a white nationalist.
At the moment, not so great. There are a few scenarios I can come up with where there would be, before the end of this year 2021 some sort of rolling, unorganized political violence…but an actual Second American Civil War? Nah.
But I could see the odds of a Second American Civil War increasing significantly in the 2023-2025 timeframe. So, in a sense, one could see this as the quiet before the storm.
Or, to put it even another way — the macro trends that are leading to a possible Second American Civil War are still there. It’s just they will all come to a head no later than January, 2025. Some reasons why we might have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
And, yet, the United States is far more politically unstable than one might currently think and so at any particular moment right now the possibility of a civil war breaking out is, in fact, greater than zero. But it won’t be until after 2023 — at least — before the possibility of a civil war reaches 50%.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
The idea of a Second America Civil War has provoked a growing fascination because negative polarization within MAGA New Right ranks has grow so absolute, so extreme that an organized attempt to physically hurt liberals seems “inevitable” to them.
I’ve seen a lot New Right cocksuckers essentially blame liberals for “forcing” them to radicalize. To date, all the movement towards some sort of needless tragedy on the level of a Second American Civil War is abstract. MAGA New Right cocksuckers know, in general terms that dem dar damn liberals are “forcing” them to to ahead to an “inevitable” civil war.
But how close, exactly, is the United States to a civil war?
For the time being, we’re about four years away from a civil war, if it’s going to happen. There is always the chance that some unexpected event that I can’t game out will happen before January 2025, but I am growing more confident that we’ll survive until that point. Some reasons why we might have a civil war:
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
What’s more, a civil war would be one of three options within a spectrum of political outcomes, with autocracy and military junta also being possibilities. Some of why people are so interested in a modern American civil war comes from the sense that a lot Americans have that the country is collapsing around them and they are struggling to understand if they should prepare for a civil war.
So, in that respect, things are still pretty abstract.
And, remember, for the type of civil war that the MAGA New Right expects to happen, to happen, something would have to knock the U.S. Military out of commission on a systemic level. Because such an event would be pretty astonishing, I think it’s safe to say that if we reach the brink of civil war that the U.S. Military will step in, establish a temporary military junta and that’s how we’ll solve the existential problems of the day.
Anyway, I have no idea about anything. Don’t listen to me.
I did get my passport yesterday, though.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
In general, the endgame of the bullshit Cyber Ninjas “audit” of the 2020 presidential election in Arizona seems to be come out swinging then walk it all back gradually as they’re forced to produce fact to backup their claims that “#TrumpWon.”
As of this writing, the audit’s results haven’t come out yet, but I will be flabbergasted if the Cyber Ninjas report doesn’t makes it clear that #TrumpWon, at least in their eyes.
The question is — then what?
If you keep an eye on the Twitter search for this subject, the usual suspects are growing hysterical…but they don’t seem to have any clear answer to, “and then what?” I’m assuming they think they can somehow magically decertify Biden’s win in at least Arizona with an eye to the whole thing.
Even though none of that is legally possible, that’s what they’re hoping for.
If you think about it, this is similar to the logic of January 6th where the MAGA New Right pinned all its hopes on Pence not doing the thing that he had to do, even if he didn’t want to: certify the vote.
The logic on the part of the MAGA New Right is so similar to what happened on January 6th that it’s enough to make one at least a little uneasy. Once the inevitable Cyber Ninjas “proof” comes out, then Trump is going to demand as many states that will listen “decertify” Biden’s win.
Then what?
When Trump isn’t magically re-instated, then they’re going to start talking about nullification or secession. The point of all of this is we could be careening towards a sharp, sudden and severe political crisis in the next few days.
And, yet, it could be that January 6th was a very specific set of circumstances — Trump was president at the time, afterall — and, lulz, it could be this bullshit just becomes another quiver in the #TrumpWon talking point list of things to say whenever a piviot is needed.
I’ve given it some thought, and it seems the point of the Cyber Ninjas bullshit is this — they put out a bullshit report today that “proves” Trump “won” Arizona, then they have a month to back up the results of their findings. Everything can fall apart, they can walkback the findings to the point of meaninglessness, but the fact will remain: for the MAGA New Right they will now have a talking point to piviot to whenever we findout Trump was selling human babies to ETs for experimentation. (I’m joking, I hope.)
So, both the bonkers idiots of MAGA will have what they want and normal fact base people will have what THEY want. It’s a win-win.
But there is a very real risk that just like with January 6th’s certification crisis in DC, we could have a national DECERTIFICATION crisis once Cyber Ninjas release their bullshit report today. (I guess there’s a chance they might actually lulz everything and admit that Trump didn’t win, but that would only cause someone else within the MAGA New Right to try AGAIN to prove Trump won. They’re not stopping until they get that fucking talking point.)
The interesting thing will be to see how quickly the call to “decertify” Biden’s win will happen. It will happen starting the moment the report comes out, I bet. It won’t matter that this is meaningless and idiotic, we live in an age of “gesture politics” and so the GOP wants images of “brave” Arizona law makers giving long speeches about how #TrumpWon and then they unanimously vote to decertify Biden’s win in the state.
Where thing goes from that point who knows. It could be that some sort of momentum builds and other states get all excited and decertify Biden’s win just because it makes the base feel better — this is what Trump wants, obviously — or it could be they will invite Cyber Ninjas into their state to pull the same bullshit.
The fact that a month from now Cyber Ninjas will release the “evidence” to support their bullshit findings and it turns out to be the sham that we all know it is, won’t matter. For Republicans, to be Republican means to believe #TrumpWon, no matter what they have to destroy, or break to prove that “fact.”
Are we going to have a civil war over this bullshit? I don’t know. The moment that bullshit report comes out and “proves” Trump “won” then, yes, the conditions will be there. But it could be I’m way ahead of myself and, thankfully, everything is going to be a big old dud.
Apparently, tomorrow, Monday, August 23, Cyber Ninjas is supposed to come out with its report on its “forensic audit” of the 2020 presidential vote in Arizona. The whole fucking point of this clusterfuck is — at a minimum — give the MAGA New Right a talking point they can piviot to whenever this or that horrific thing that Trump did while in office comes up.
Uh oh.
But the actual goal of this fucking sham “audit” is to force the hand of Republicans in Arizona to press for “decertification” of Biden’s win in the state. The logic on their part is this would force other states that Trump lost fair and square to do the same thing — they might even skip the Cyber Ninjas part. All that will matter is Republicans have it within their power to decertify the vote and there will then be talk of “nullifying” the Biden Administration altogether.
Then we would have a January 6th (but on a national scale) type situation where Trump eggs loons on for profit and the next thing you know, we have not just a decertification or nullification crisis, we have a secessionist crisis. But there are so pretty huge “ifs” involved in all of my dystopian hellscape pontificatining.
You would have to have some sort of momentum started by the obvious lie that this whole bullshit “audit” is a part of. People with something to lose would have to, well, lose their minds. But it could very well happen in the heat of the moment. We saw it with Trump’s slow, rolling soft coup attempt after the election was called for Biden in late 2020.
But, for the time being, I think while there is likely to be a shit tone of frothy discussion about GOP-controlled states “nullifying” the Biden Administration, all of this fucking bullshit is probably just going to be a MAGA New Right talking point. It’ll be the stuff of tweets that are spammed into MAGA New Right Twitter and never make it to the “Top” page of that particular search.
Yet, there’s something we have to keep at the forefront of our minds. And that is — when Cyber Ninjas’ “proof” of a Trump “win” in Arizona inevitable falls apart, it won’t matter. The talking point will exist within the MAGA New Right until the sun goes dark, no matter what.
I just can’t, at the moment, game out if the Cyber Ninjas bullshit is, in itself, enough to force us into something akin to a Second American Civil War.
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