Tag: Autocratic America

America is Careening Towards The Existential Choice of Autocracy Or Civil War In January 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is either just a few years away from descending into full MAGA New Right autocracy or this is a modern antebellum period. Take your pick. You only have those two choices.

Let me state at the beginning that I got a lot — a whole lot — wrong about the Trump Era.

But looking back, most of my errors were miscalculations about what Trump was actually capable of doing. He talked like an autocrat, but he didn’t walk like one. So, I spent all this time thinking up pretty basic autocratic things he could do…and he was just too lazy and stupid to do them. As such, you have a situation where it seemed very easy to me during the 2020 presidential cycle that Trump would steal the election and become an autocrat via a Koch Brothers-inspired Constitutional Convention.

It was a gimme for Trump. All the conditions were there. All the metrics. Everything. All Trump had to do was fire enough people to get someone to indict Joe Biden and have images of him being frog walked at some point leading up to November 2020 and that would be it. What’s more, as late as a few days after the 2020 election, Trump STILL could have stolen the election and he just didn’t have the wherewithal.

So what happened was he panicked. He made a last ditch effort to steal the election by having his angry mob want to “Hang Mike Pence.” But it was always a dumb plan and all it did was give Republicans, on an systemic basis, a heads up as to how to steal future elections.

But back to 2024.

It’s seems a forgone conclusion that in January 2025, either we slip peacefully into some sort of MAGA New Right autocracy because it officially becomes conventional wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become president is if their party controls Congress at the same time or we have a civil war. And my bet is if it happens in 2025, it’s going to be Blue States, not Red States that bounce.

The dead hand of history is on Red States’ side — they have the macro trend momentum — and so when the moment comes and it’s clear we’re going to be an autocracy, there’s a chance that Blue States simply won’t put up with it and we have a civil war.

Of course, there’s one issue I can’t game out: the U.S. Military.

It’s possible that in the end, the military gets over itself and steps in. They depose the MAGA New Right autocrat, form a junta with Jim Mattis at its head and call a Constitutional Convention to fix the problems facing the country. Hopefully, of course, they’ll ensure that it’s not a MAGA dominated convention, but who knows.

All I know is, something’s gotta give. The positions of the two sides are hardening to the point that something’s going to change very soon, within a few years. Things are going to change in a big, historic fashion that a lot of people are simply not prepared to experience.

I can’t predict the future. So I could be wrong — again. But barring something big happening that throws everything out of whack (the LHC is going back online in 2022, so lulz) I just don’t see how we don’t have a pretty massive turning point in American history around January 2025.

AOC & The End Of The Meh Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If the book The Fourth Turning is to be believed, we’re currently in a holding pattern until Something Big happens around 2025. I don’t believe in reveled truth, but that jibes with my personal belief that January 2025 is going to be huge because we’re either going to peacefully drift into an autocracy or, gulp, we’re going to have a civil war.

We’re kind of in a historical holding pattern at the moment. We live in an Era of Meh. But whenever that changes, everything is going to be thrown up in the air. People who currently are just kind of drifting through history may be forced to rise to the occasion.

One person this is very true about is AOC. She’s young, smart and articulate. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where when the crisis of January 2025 happens she is forced into the spotlight in a big way. She might find herself in a Giuliani on 9/11 type situation.

Or, put another way, a side effect of the impending chaos we’re careening towards would be someone like AOC. She’s ripe to be pushed into the next level of our political life for no other reason than she may feel compelled to take a stand that puts her in serious risk.

I have no idea what any of this would entail, but if the country is falling apart because a MAGA controlled Congress refuses to certify a Biden win in January 2025, AOC seems like the type of person who might lead the effort to stop such a tyrannical move.

Anyway. What do I know. Lulz.

The Rise of Trumplandia — The MAGA New Right & Popular American Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just like how Putin’s initial transition of Russia into an autocracy was popular among a large swath of the Russian electorate because it promised to bring “stability,” so, too is the prospect of American autocracy very popular within the MAGA New Right.

Once you establish this, everything begins to make a lot more sense.

It’s difficult to talk to someone about politics in a liberal democracy when their personal political views are based on the goal of…destroying the liberal democracy you both currently live in. That’s why Trump remains so popular long after any other politician in a similar position would have been destroyed. He’s so out there that we lose sight that the “idea” of Trump is so popular because the “idea” the he represents is autocracy.

Or, put another way, people wanted an old fashion autocrat when they elected him in 2016 (with the help of the Russians) and, in a sense, we kind of dodged a bullet when he turned out just to be a malicious idiot. So, Trump could very well be seen as more a transitional character that the guy who gets the job done. But the thing about Trump is for all his autocratic, disruptive leanings he’s all talk — or just really lazy.

That’s why you have the situation where he telegraphed in exact detail his intentions of being an American Hitler…only not to be able to produce the goods. So center-Left people like me who screamed that Trump was an autocrat who was going to destroy America…were right. We were right given the metrics we had at the time.

What we got wrong was Trump’s actual ability to do all the things he said he wanted to do. I mean, if he was anywhere near as effective as he would have us believe he would have EASILY stolen the 2020 election, pulled out of NATO the moment he was re-elected and began to rant about how we needed a Constitutional Convention. And this would have been popular enough that absolutely nothing was done to prevent it.

Donald Trump

But, surprise, Trump is all hot air. He’s a lazy racist piece of shit who talks a good game but can’t in any way do any of the autocratic things he so desperately wants to do. This, even though he had the entire power of the Federal government at his disposal and a entire political party at his beck and call.

It takes a lot of talent to screw up your autocratic dreams with all that going for you.

And, yet, Trump managed to do just that.

The point of all of this is two fold. One, don’t get your hopes up if we figure out the direct link between Trump, “R. Congressmen” and the January 6th Insurrection. We could know for an absolute fact that Trump personally was involved in the direction of that violent event and STILL nothing would happen to him. There are just too many people who not-so-tacitly support his dream of an autocratic America — too many people inside the Republican Party wanted the goal of that particular conspiracy to be successful.

The issue is Trump is such a ding-bat that if history AGAIN gives him the power to finally transition us into an autocracy, there’s a good chance we’re going to have a civil war. He’s just too big a doofus to be able to pull it off without the Blue States, in some manner, fighting back on the field of battle.

So, Trump’s personal laziness and incompetency would be the specific reason why the civil war that so many MAGA New Right fucktards want so bad finally happens. It would probably happen at some point around the certification of Trump’s “winning” the 2024 election because a MAGA Congress nullifies Biden’s win. Good times!

Lastly, there is one huge piece of the puzzle that way, way, way too many are oblivious to — they’re so busy hating on Trump that they forget all of this bullshit is a systemic problem. Trump is just an avatar. There are probably a dozen talented Republican elected officials who are positioning themselves to be America’s Putin.

They will get into office and never leave. An entire generation — or two! of Americans will grow up with President Pompeo, or Hawley, or Cotton or Noam or DeSantis…or you name it. And, as much as it pains me to say this, the only way this will NOT happen is if the transition to autocracy is somehow bungled and we have a very tragic civil war that will pretty much cause WW3 and the potential death of billions around the globe.

So, take your pick, folks.

Autocracy or civil war. Autocracy or civil fucking war.

De Agony And De Ecstasy Of Ron DeSantis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If this was the pre-Trump Era, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be well on his way to being a run-of-the-mill Republican president. He might even be a tick or two better than idiot George W. Bush.

But this is the POST Trump presidency era, and, as such, things are fucking bonkers. Instead of just a run of the mill Republican president, DeSantis, if elected would be more like an American Augustus — the first autocrat of our new post-democracy America.

Ron DeSantis

All the hysterical, dystopian things I’ve been ranting about would happen during his presidency instead of ding-dong Trump’s. DeSantis is young, competent and not only knows how to weld the levers of power, but also how to be Trump without Trump. And, as such, he’s extremely dangerous.

DeSantis could turn into an American Putin and simply never leave office. There is already a well-organized move afoot to get a Constitutional Convention called and given how its members would be selected — via state legislatures — it’s a gimmie that it would codify MAGA “blood and soil” concepts into the Constitution.

And that would be it.

What’s worse, DeSantis is actively killing his own electorate at the moment by denying science when it comes to COVID19 in an effort to curry favor with those sweet, sweet MAGA base votes. We’ve reached the point where MAGA New Right voters are so absolute in their need to “own the libs” because of their abstract fears over Cancel Culture and Critical Race Theory that they would LITERALLY RATHER DIE than see COVID19 for what it is — a lingering national health crisis.

There is one other potential obstacle to DeSantis getting his opportunity to be the founding autocrat of Trumplandia — a 300 lb tub of lard who thinks HE should be the founding autocrat of Trumplandia. Trump is so fucking deranged and unwilling to let go of either power or the spotlight that it’s very easy to imagine him politically shiving DeSantis so he can run again in 2024.

Now, logically, Trump would pick DeSantis as his new veep, paving the way for Trump to put DeSantis in the position of being his autocratic successor. But Trump is a craven idiot who thinks in such a short-term, so it could be we end up with Vice President Michael Flynn instead of Vice President Ron DeSantis.

Anyway, the point is — Trump is such a political history disrupter that he could bend the nature progression of our history simply because he’s self-serving dick head. Or not. Who knows what that guy.

I will note, however, that DeSantis is extremely fucking popular with conservatives in general. But even if everything breaks his way, there are going to be a dozen other would-be autocrats stalking him in an effort to get him to trip up.

And, lastly, don’t forget the real possibility of some sort of civil war should DeSantis win the presidency only via the skullduggery of a MAGA Congress.

States Are Now The Laboratories Of Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be, the famous quip about the states was that they were the “laboratories of democracy.” Sadly, the opposite is now true — in MAGA state after state, would-be autocrats are testing out different autocratic measures in an hope of catching the attention of the MAGA faithful.

Because of the fundimental anti-democratic nature of the modern MAGA Republican Party, by definition, if you want to make a name for yourself as a would-be Republican nominee, you have to think up new and creative ways of strangling democracy on a state level. From Texas, to South Dakota to Florida, governor after governor has made it clear that their goal is to strangle American democracy in the name of “making America great again.”

And, I think, that’s the crux of what a lot of people are missing about what’s going on in the United States right now — Trump has always been nothing more than an avatar. As such, even if we magically took Trump out of the equation there are many, many men and women chomping at the bit to finish the transition to autocracy that Trump began.

So, in a sense, we’re pretty much fucked. Totally, and completely, fucked.

In fact, I would say we’re so fucked that the other option before us, civil war, might, in a sense be the better one because even though it would be a horrific tragedy, at least there would be the possibility that we would come out on the other side with a stronger democracy.

That’s kind of dark and I don’t like to think about that, but, yikes is autocracy bearing down on us.

What Are Trump, Mark Meadows & Their Merry Band Of Seditious Idiots Up To?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The core group of people who surrounded Mad King Trump fling off so much bullshit at any one moment that it’s very difficult to figure out what the fuck they’re talking about sometimes. But, just recently, former Trump COS Mark Meadows make it sound like Trump was plotting some sort of return sooner rather than later.

I struggle to figure out what’s going on.

Either it’s all bullshit meant to make Trump feel better, or they’re actively planning to take advantage of the potential instability caused by Cyber Ninjas “proving” that Trump “won” Arizona. If it’s the latter, then they’re actively stetting the stage for a national version of January 6th.

Here’s how it would go down.

Sometime soon — in August, maybe? — Cyber Ninjas comes out with a preliminary report that says Trump won Arizona. Trump spooges his pants and won’t shut the fuck up about how this PROVES he won the 2020 election, even if it’s just one state. This sets of a cascading set of events where Red State legislatures across the country decide to hold “Decertification Conventions” meant to appease the MAGA base. Of course, soon enough, because of Trump screaming at them, these conventions turn into “Nullification Conventions” and, soon enough, once they realize that you can’t really nullify the results of a presidential election — Secessionist Conventions.

Then Trump really does do the ultimate ask the elected members of his violent personality cult — are you going to join my new Trumplandia government?

That is kind of the absolute, absolute worst case scenario.

More likely, all of this bullshit would be used to as part of a greater media narrative for the 2022 mid-terms. They might tell the MAGA base to vote so Trump the “real” president could become Speaker and, as such, be put into the line of secession to cause who knows mischief.

The point is — the moment Cyber Ninjas comes out with their preliminary report, all hell might break loose. Or not. Everything is very much up in the air at this point.

Pretty much anything might happen. The key issue is, could Trump unto himself, be catalyst enough to force a secession crisis if he isn’t “re-instated.”

Struggling To Parse Out The MAGA Narrative Of The Jan. 6th Capitol Insurrection


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

MAGA hates it when something makes them look bad, despite their “Fuck your feelings” rhetoric. Also, remember, Trump lives in his own surreal Upside Down and demands otherwise sane people to tow the line, so they end up tying themselves into rhetorical knots to explain his erratic statements.

But, here goes.

Apparently, the parts MAGA doesn’t like — the violent attempt to murder people with Blue Lives Matter Flags and Old Glory part — was actually a combination of Antifa, the FBI and BLM. Meanwhile, once the blood sport portion of the event ended, the people who went into the Capitol itself, THOSE people were just tourists who wanted to peacefully look around without an appointment. Though, given all the agitation that Trump et al were directly responsible for the idea that these, perfectly peaceful people’s agenda was just to hang out and talk to their Congress member is…dubious?

That doesn’t even begin to address the “Welcome To The New Right” part of all of this in the sense that there may come a point when the never-ending drift towards fascism on the part of the Republican Party will force all conservatives to embrace and extend what happened. You see some of this already in how they’re trying to turn Ashli Babbitt into some sort of MAGA martyr. This is another aspect of this rhetorical clusterfuck that is difficult to understand.

So, the violent part of what happened was a False Flag operation. And Ms. Babbitt is a martyr who was just minding her own business — EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE FOOTAGE OF EXACTLY WHAT SHE WAS DOING THAT CAUSED HER DEATH. Had she not been shot, there’s a good chance that that “the False Flag operation” that was going on all around her would have ended in the death of a number of elected officials. UGH.

I suppose the point of all this bullshit is to simply address the outrage of normal, non-MAGA people in an a la carte manner. If MAGA’s defenses for what happened are contradictory and make no sense, so what. Libs. Owned.

And the thing we need right now — for the January 6th Insurrection to pry traditional conservatives away from MAGA just isn’t going to happen. That’s why Mitch McConnell et al are acting the way they are now. Trump is still very popular within conservative circles. The base is drifting closer and closer to totally embracing fascism and white nationalism. So, lulz, so what.

I don’t have any easy answers for you. It’s not like I write for VOX or anything.

Negative Polarization Based On Abstract Fears Is A Hell Of A Drug


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is now impossible to talk about politics with my far more conservative relatives. This is disheartening for a number of reasons, chief among them being — oh boy — when the autocracy comes I’m beginning to think they’re going to be Good Germans and let me meet my fate alone when ICE comes knocking.

The thing I struggle with is — why are things like this?

There’s something warping the American political system to its breaking point. In short, the politics of our 240 year old liberal democracy have frozen up in a way not seen since before the Civil War. Outside of the fringe NeverTrump movement on Twitter, to be an American conservative is to be MAGA, even if you don’t perceive yourself as MAGA.

The vast majority of all American conservatives are now effectively anti-democratic MAGA people to the point that they will welcome the autocracy with open arms when it arrives. Or, worst yet, they won’t even see it as an autocracy when it happens. People like me and Norm Ornstein will hysterically scream autocracy, while my conservative relatives simply won’t notice or care.

Or, even worse, if a civil war breaks out, I won’t be able to turn to them for succor. I’m going to be on my own. Oh boy.

And, yet, I continue to wonder what, specifically, is causing this weird warping of the American political system. What, specifically is causing otherwise normal, educated conservatives to defend the “cruelty is the point” element of MAGA? There simply is nothing that MAGA believes or wants that the conservatives I know believe is too much. They were upset about the insurrection but I know damn well that because of negative polarization they’ll vote for Trump in 2024 because of the extensive permission structure they’ll have at their disposal.

All I got when it comes to the addictive nature of negative polarization is a number of macro trends all came to a head around 2016. Republicans lost the culture wars. It became clear that demographic trends were NOT in white America’s favor. College became so expensive that it was not a part of the American Dream of upward mobility for the salt of the earth.

Add to this the Fox News bullshit echo chamber and you have the makings of people who know something isn’t right in America anymore, but they just don’t quite know what it is. They have a general feeling that liberals have something to do it. (Even though, of course, most of the excesses that conservatives hate so much come from Leftists, not liberals.)

So, as I mentioned before, the thing that really bothers me is my conservative relatives — not matter what happens — will never make common cause with me in opposing the rise of fascism in the United States. Never. I’m on my own. It’s a real struggle for me because I know on a personal level fascism isn’t something they agree with.

And, yet, their abstract fears over Cancel Culture, “safe spaces,” “microaggressions,” and Critical Race Theory are soooooooooooo fucking absolute that they effectively support Trump and MAGA’s worse excesses.

So, lulz, now what.

The New Normal: Life In The Time Of A Criminal Ex-President


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump is a cold, hard criminal. And an idiot. And very lazy. And, tragically, a still-popular ex-president. So, what are we going to do about him?

Well, there’s a pretty wide spectrum out endgames for this particular orange ding-dong. On one end, we have him finally meeting some sort of reckoning. In its most extreme, Trump would be “locked up” and we wouldn’t have to worry about him anymore.

Lulz. Then, on the OTHER end of the spectrum is reality — civil war or autocracy.

Now what.

Despite his best efforts, Trump was not able to destroy the United States. But as long as he’s got breath in his lungs and greed in his heart, he’s going to keep trying. So, I just don’t see anything ever happening to Trump, no matter what we learn about him.

We could have absolute proof that he coordinated the January 6th Insurrection with Congressional Republican leadership. We could have proof that he literally was using American foreign policy as a cash cow. The fucking list goes on. Once Mueller chocked at the behest of Barr and gave Trump a political pardon, that was it. Trump is now politically above the law. We just don’t have the political will to do anything about the fucking asshole.

America has reached a singularity of derp when it comes to dipshit Trump. The Republican Party is now a fascist, violent personality cult and there’s no going back. Because of a combination of racism, misogyny, and macro historical trends that are severely warping our politics, Trump is now something of the God King of Dune of American politics. We just don’t have any political will when it comes to him.

Look at it this way — in my personal experience, my relatives who are far more conservative than I am hate, in an abstract manner, liberal progressives so fucking much that they are prepared to let me be throw into a Trump branded ICE camp rather than form a united front with me and people like me to defeat Trumpism — even though they don’t like Trump!

The inability to get conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA to put aside abstract negative polarization long enough to destroy the cancer that is MAGA is very depressing on a political basis. It’s because of this that we continue to careen towards civil war or autocracy.

Those are our choices by no later than January 2025: autocracy or civil war.

MAGA has gone septic. Our political system is warped. The country is far more unstable than Twitter liberals are willing to admit

What’s the endgame? I dunno.

You tell me.

American Politics Is Dead


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, American Twitter Liberals are oblivious to how dire things are on a practical level political in the United States. Traditional politics have collapsed.

Politically, I’m the only center-Left person in my immediate family and it’s now officially impossible for me to talk politics with my far more conservative siblings. They either freak out on me or they are so consumed with recursive thinking brought on by negative polarization that it’s a moot point.

This is not great!

The fact that America is now so divided by partisan politics that you can’t have just a casual conversation about politics with people you disagree with means we’re a lot further down the road to the existential choice of civil war or autocracy than Twitter liberals would have us believe.

People are beginning to make fun of me for how much I talk about this, but I don’t know what I can do — all the metrics definitely indicate to me that that existential choice is hurtling towards us at an alarming rate. If it doesn’t happen it will be because of something that no one — not even I — can predict.

I think some of all of this stems from some people simply can’t process the concept that the United States is either going to transition into a Russian style autocracy or have a civil war. They’re so busy living their lives and raising their kids that the idea that something so dramatic would happen is just not something they can process.