Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Will A Republican House Impeach Biden?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong. Always. Though, to be fair, I did get Trump running for POTUS again right. (Although, as of this writing, he hasn’t OFFICIALLY announced.) Anyway, it seems inevitable that the Republican House will impeach any number of Biden Administration officials. And here’s my humble opinion why.

Here’s a back-of-the-envelope prediction about all the potential impeachments we should expect in 2023 if Republicans do, in fact, take the House.

President Biden
It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”

There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.

At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.

Veep Harris
I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.

DHS Secretary Mayorkas
As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.

HHS Secretary Becerra 
This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?

Education Secretary Cardona
This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.

FBI Director Wray
If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.

Attorney General Garland
This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.

There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.

The first issue is for all the talk about how the narrow the House Republicans’ control of the House is — all they have to unite them is impeachment, which would be a part of the broader culture wars. So, it’s easy to imagine the Freedom Caucus, through sheer force of will, browbeating the more moderate(?) members of the Republican House Caucus into impeaching at least Biden, if not a few other people.

It would be one of those, “Might as well score those political points why we have the power to do so” type of things. They want to do all these baseless investigations and the end will be already written — impeachment. I get why some people think that these so-called “moderate” Republicans won’t go along with impeachment, but I call bullshit.

Being a “moderate” House Republican at this point is like being a “moderate” member of the NSDAP in 1933. A fucking fascist is a fucking fascist, no matter how “moderate” they may come across to clueless access journalists like Maggie Haberman.

So, I believe my predictions to date on the whole impeachment front will turn out to be correct. It’s in the nature of Republicans to get so wrapped up in the idea of punishing their perceived political enemies — despite the broader political costs.

I’m Growing Alarmed Over What’s Going On With The Arizona Governor’s Race

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea how exactly it would go down, but once bitten twice shy as the old saying goes and, as such, I’m growing more and more alarmed about what’s going on with the Arizona Governor’s race.

The thing about what happened on January 6th was there was some build up. It didn’t happen overnight. It was only after a few months of a slow-moving coup and a lot of preperation that the events of January 6th occured.

But the thing to remember about what’s going on in Arizona is that state — or at least its Republican Party — is one of the more bonkers of the Union. So, in a sense, it’s a perfect storm. If another January 6th-type event is going to happen, it’s probably going to happen somewhere like Arizona.

I have no idea exactly how it would go down, however. I suppose if you really wanted to wallow in MAGA delusion, you might even suggest that the type of “spontaneous” rolling political violence that Barbara F. Walter wrote a book about might happen because of what’s going on in Arizona at the moment.

The point is — keep an eye on Arizona. It could get pretty dicey — and violent — a lot sooner than you might otherwise think. I just don’t have any details as to what might happen specifically. Maybe a new Brooks Brothers’ Riot? Or just some sort of general violence on the part of MAGA cocksuckers wanting to get their point across?

Watch this space.

Trump’s The Hundred Days (as Speaker?)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Steve Bannon has suggested that Trump just become Speaker of the House, but only for 100 days. What would that be like? It would, of course, be a massive, catastrophic clusterfuck.

My fear if it happened is that Trump would end up dangling Red States secession over the heads of reluctant Senators when they had to sit as jurists in the inevitable impeachments of Biden and Harris. And that doesn’t even begin to address all the insane things that might happen because the MAGA faithful would want to “speed up the process” of getting Trump back into the White House.

In other words, there would be a lot of coup attempts — even if the whole disaster only lasted for 100 days.

But there is one key thing to remember about the Trump-as-Speaker scenario: on paper it makes way too much sense. I mean, what is all the leadership battles happening in the House about but who can properly suck up to Trump? Why not cut out the middle man and let Trump be Trump.

What more hateful, delicious revenge for Trump than for him to take the Speaker’s gavel directly from Nancy Pelosi herself? I’m very conflicted about this possibility because on one hand it might destroy MAGA once and for all, but on the other we would risk Trump getting REALLY LUCKY and becoming POTUS in 2023 – 2024 instead of 2025.

Anyway, I get the sense that, thankfully, we’re not going to have to worry about a Speaker Trump, even though we’re going to head a growing chorus of insane fucking MAGA cocksuckers who think it would be a GREAT idea. Fuck MAGA.

MAGA’s Moment Of Truth

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to dwell on the possibility that MAGA might, just might, not be the overarching popular fascist movement that I thought it was. Or, if nothing else, the context is a lot different than I thought.

What I mean is — not only was it something of a fluke that Trump won in 2016, but once he gave Republicans the red met of young hack MAGA judges and a plutocrat tax cut…the clock was ticking. So, when Trump, being a lazy dingus totally and completely blew what should have been an easy re-election bid to steal…he was on his way to broader defeat.

I’m not prepared to count Trump out just yet — he is still very, very popular for a would-be fascist autocrat relative to general American history. And, yet, the case could be made that if he has any political relevance left he’s going to have to fight for it. And, as we all know, Trump is both lazy and stupid. AND lacks any serious meta-abstract cognitive abilities.

He is, and has always been just a political grunt in macro terms. Rather than being a Great Man, Trump is just a vessel, an avatar for white Christian rage. If he wants to be POTUS again, he’s going to have to fight for it. If he had any abstract cognitive abilities he would realize that his best bet to be POTUS again is by becoming Speaker of the House and then impeaching both Biden and Harris…and maybe dangling the idea of Reds seceding from the Union over the heads of Senators.

But that’s a very devious and dialogical plot that, thankfully, Trump is just way, way, way too stupid and lazy to implement. At best, he might be drafted into being Speaker…but he would just thrash around, get Biden and Harris impeached….and that would be that…it would die in the Senate.

As such, there’s a real that Trump might — just might — be about to meet his political Waterloo. Someone like Ron “Too Short” DeSantis might win the GQP nomination instead of Trump — but that would be a very brutal fight if it happened. And, what’s more, Trump has such little allegience to Republicans that it’s very easy to imagine him simply bouncing to the Patriot Party out of spite…punting America’s otherwise inevitable transition into autocracy one more election cycle.

Logically, Trump Should Be The Next Speaker of The House

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A Ploy to Convict Biden / Harris in the Senate
In this scenario, it’s 2023 and Republicans have gone nuts. They have impeached both Biden and Harris out of spite. Now, for Trump to actively be trying to destroy the country, he would, of course, need to have some personal investment in it. So, this one only really works if he is the Speaker of the House and he thinks he can become POTUS again early. So, in a bid to scare the living shit out of the Senate, he, as Speaker, begins to demand Red States leave the Union in order to get what he wants. He says this just as a rhetorical flourish, but MAGA legislatures take him seriously and states, probably beginning with Texas, begin to convene Secessionist Conventions. And away we go.

I wrote that scenario up some time ago and as Republicans begin a massive power struggle over who will be Speaker of the House, it begins to become more and more relevant. Any back of the envelope study of the current Republican struggle over who will be Speaker of the House tells you that, all things being equal, Trump should be the next Republican Speak of the House.

All the sturm and drang going on about the Speakership is battle over who will be Trump’s proxy in the House. So, the logical way to end that struggle is to cut the Gordian Knot by simply naming Trump to the Speakership. Trump is the one person that the entire House caucus could unite behind.

What’s more, it would also unite the Republican House caucus because it would put Trump in line of succession. House Republicans are going to impeach Biden and Harris anyway, they should be at least be intellectually honest for once and make it clear what they’re up to — a coup.

But it is very easy to imagine Trump becoming Speaker, impeaching both Biden and Harris and then inciting violence on the part of the MAGA New Right to such an extent that Senate Democrats feel forced to convict them “for the sake of the nation.”

Then Trump comes back early and we’re right back where we started from in January 2021, with Trump demanding to stay in office forever because of “lost time.”

But — and this a huge but — Trump is not a Great Man. He’s just very lucky, very lazy idiot. As such, I would be shocked if he was able to pull himself away from running again in 2024 to be Speaker for, say, 100 days as Steve Bannon has suggested.

Trump just doesn’t have the abstract mental capacity necessary to be Speaker. But there’s another big unknown — what happens if a big chunk of the Republican House caucus drafts Trump to be Speaker? Would that be enough to entice him to do it for the specific purpose of leading the impeachment of both Biden and Harris?

At this point, this seems like just another daydream. But….it is an interesting scenario.

Trump Is Such A National Embarrassment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are so many reasons why we need to indict Trump at this point. But, as is always the case with Trump, there is a huge complication — by definition, to indict Trump is to make him a MAGA martyr that is 100% assured to play the victim card all the way to the 2024 Republican nomination.

So, I don’t know what to tell you. It’s a bad situation either way. I suppose what is going to happen is the Biden Administration will name a Special Prosecutor then walk away. This will, in a way, slice the boil when it comes to what to do about Trump.

MAGA Republicans Are Fascists Because…We’re Too Mean To Them?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometimes, you can’t make this shit up. One of the major slogans of the 2016 campaign on the part of Republicans was “fuck your feelings.” It was meant to convey that MAGA was done being “PC” and just wanted to be “left alone.” Flash forward to today and now it seems that all that MAGA Republicans do is whine about how they’re doubling down on fascism because…they’re getting their fee-fees hurt?

I obviously find this extremely disingenuous. It says more about how the two sides misunderstand each other than it does about how mean people like me are to MAGA. Or, put another way, it says more about how insecure MAGA is growing that it’s at least possible that their transformation of the United States into a white Christian ethno state may, at least, not go in a straight line. (Even though it definitely seems like it’s going to happen — or we have a civil war / miliary junta.)

I have to admit, of course, that the entire Western World continues to careen towards something pretty dark. Call it The Fourth Turning or the Great Reset. But it’s dark. We — and especially the USA — can’t keep punting our problems down the road forever.

Now, let me be clear — I’m probably wrong. I’m always wrong. Or, what might happen is, in the end, our drift into autocracy is initially so subtle that it’s a lulz…until it’s not.

Republicans, Beware — Hell Hath No Fury Like A Trump Scorned

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m no fortune teller, but when you’re dealing with a man who was willing to destroy American democracy for the sake of his own ego, well, if you don’t give him what he wants you’re playing with fire.

I’m speaking, of course, of Donald Trump and the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. There are two outcomes to the growing “Never Trump” sentiment within mainstream Republican ranks — either it fizzles and Trump grows even stronger, putting us on a course that includes civil war or military junta, or it doesn’t and Trump bounces for the Patriot Party.

Barring something unexpected, those are the two options for the Republican Party — either give Trump what he wants, or risk destruction at his hands. Or, if not destruction, at least the lost of the 2024 presidential cycle. If we have fascist version of TD’s Bull Moose Party, then all bets are off. Trump could single-handedly destroy the Republican Party by cleaving it away from its base.

No matter what happens, we’re in for some pretty surreal times in the coming days.

Surprise! Maybe Trump Just Isn’t As Popular As We Thought?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m just not prepared to count dingus Trump out politically yet. And, yet, given how poorly the 2022 midterms have gone for Republicans, the case could be made that Trump just isn’t the political juggernaut that we thought he was. In fact, it’s at least possible that Trump, once he won in 2016, was all smoke and mirrors.

He simply used the Bully Pulpit to further his agenda, without really having any broad-based support. Sure, a lot of Traditional conservatives winced and went along with the ride for young hack MAGA judges and tax cuts…but in a pinch…the number of people who hated Trump simply was greater than those willing to vote for him.

As such, things really began to accelerate downward for him once he lost the 2020 election.

And now, here we are.

But the very concept of autocracy is based on no democracy, so there’s every reason to believe that Trump can come roaring back because of that. Most autocrats are…just…popular enough to stay in office. And Trump would be no different once he secured the nomination and got into office again because Republicans cheat so much.

We’ll see, I guess.

Is American Politics Snapping Back Into Place?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m reluctant to get too excited, there is a chance that now that the Republicans have massively screwed up the 2022 midterms that SOMETHING akin to normal American politics may reappear. For a little while.

There are a lot of problems with having too much glee about the prospect that Trump was some sort of “fluke” that we’re now recovering from. The biggest issue is the core, the base of the Republican Party continues to be enamored with fascism. That’s not gone anywhere.

What might be fading is Trump’s personal, specific brand of fascism. The type that makes it difficult for the more cultured elements of the Republican Party to support the rise of American Fascism. If this is the case, then we can expect pretty much the entire #NeverTrump movement to collapse and things really will snap back into place, to a certain extent.

All the neocons who have become liberal darlings will “come home” to the Republican Party and that will be that. There might some quibbling with the darker, more violent aspects of the post-Trump fascist movement that former #NeverTrumpers might have, but on a strict ideological level they’ll flock back to the GOP.

It will be interesting to see what happens next, all things considered. It could go either way. But one thing is for sure — the rise of American fascism isn’t going anywhere. By definition, to be a Republican is to be a fascist and Trump has simply served his political and historical purpose to the furtherance of that end. The issue if Trump is done would simply be — do we punt our problems down the road one more election cycle, or does someone like DeSantis finally strangle American democracy once and for all?