Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The Phony Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are very surreal right now. The reason — what should have happened after the election, hasn’t happened yet. What SHOULD have happened, given the metrics of the moment is a Second American Civil War.

Trump SHOULD have struck in some way before the race was called, Blue States SHOULD have reacted violently, Trump SHOULD have used the Insurrection Act and then the United States SHOULD have imploded into a full blown civil war.

But, thankfully, that’s not at all what happened.

It feels like everyone has put their affairs in order for a civil war….and nothing has happened. So, in a sense, many of us are kind of looking around in a daze, wondering why we still have lights and ready access to food. Everything is there, right now, for a violent civil war in the United States and yet the country continues to miraculously run on fumes.

So, in a sense, America is extremely lucky — to date — because the specific person who would otherwise destroy the United States, Donald John Fucking Trunp — is such a lazy opportunist that he just hasn’t done what many, many, many people in the Republican Party are begging him to do — take “total control.”

It’s a very surreal situation.

So, either something unexpected happens pretty quick, or we simply punt this problem down the road a few years. The traitors who hate America — the Republican Party — will continue to be a cancer on our politics, but not enough to start any violence. Until, of course, something changes and what SHOULD have happened in the Winter of 2020 finally happens.

But we’re not out of the woods yet.

America is on edge and pretty much all it will take is something, anything that puts a little bit of extra pressure on our political system and the rolling political violence that would be the first stage of the country’s implosion will happen.

But it could be the fall and winter of 2024 that that happens.

Just be thankful we apparently have managed to escape our destruction for the time being.

Why A Second American Civil War Hasn’t Started (Yet)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All things being equal, the United States is on the cusp of a hot civil war after a decade of a cold civil war. And, yet, to date, while it definitely feels like a civil war is about to happen, it has not, in fact happened. How come?

For a civil war to happen, Trump would have to finally bump up against in stark terms how Americans perceive themselves. To date, he’s simply been too much of a lazy opportunist to do something so brazen as to cause the country to implode.

And, yet, he is such a ding-dong that it’s easy to imagine a situation where as he grows more desperate to stay in office, he sort of stumbles to an act that people who voted for Biden simply can’t brook. But remember, we’re entering the Upside Down of American politics right now — if Trump doesn’t act pretty quick, he simply won’t be able to have any thin veneer of legality to lean on when he wants to use the Insurrection Act on people who oppose him.

Or, put another way, it’s growing close enough to January 20th that the U.S. Military might simply slow-walk any effort on Trump’s to take “total control.” In fact, he Trump doesn’t act by Monday when the Electors vote, the window of opportunity for him to do anything too brazen may, in fact, be closed. The American Military could easily simply ignore Trump if he went nuts on the grounds that now that the Electors have voted, they are even MORE reluctant to follow an order that might be seen, in hindsight as illegal, or at least bending the rules.

So, one could argue that if we’re going to have a Second American Civil War NOW, rather than, say, at some point in the next four years, it will happen because something really random and extraordinary happens. And, what’s more, Trump will be in the position of leading a rebellion. The moment Trump takes up arms against the Republic, then, well, that’s a pretty easy moral situation for the U.S. Military. MAGA Rebels –> BAD.

One thing that might happen is Trump and Pompeo finally manage to box Iran into a war with Israel, then they use THAT as an excuse for Trump to take “total control” while we’re all distracted. But even that is fraught with problems — the American Military, unlike the American public, can walk and chew gum and if Trump simply ignored the Constitution because we were fighting a major regional war against Iran (and maybe the DPRK, too?) they would simply depose him while it was going on.

Another reason why we haven’t had a hot civil war yet is while there has been plenty of hot air on the part of MAGA, they haven’t — to date — been willing to back it up. They would have to start blowing shit up pretty quick for it to make a difference. Though I could see, maybe, Biden’s first 100 days having significant political violence. And, yet, thankfully, MAGA-Qanon-Proud Boys have proven themselves to be just loud mouth punks.

That may change, it may not. Who knows.

It’s very possible that we’ll just drift in the Biden Administration peacefully with a sizable chunk of the Republican Party having a wait-and-see approach to if they want to destroy the United States or not.

The Dead Hand Of History: ‘A Do The Right Thing’ Ending For America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. But it definitely seems as though the Dead Hand of History is about to strike the United States at some point between now and, say, March 2021. The black goo of destruction is there, waiting to be used. All the conditions for a civil war or a revolution exist in the United States right now and it’s just a matter of some hot head somewhere flipping the switch.

Or, to put it another way — as I understand it, at the end of the movie Do The Right Thing, Mookie simply out of the blue throws a trashcan through a window, starting a riot. The same with the United States right now — something random could happen out of the blue and cause the United States to buckle in a rather spectacular fashion.

It will be a quantum leap beyond what happened with 9/11 because the center will not hold, as they say. Whatever it is, will cause political violence to roll across the country. Red people in Blue states and Blue people in Red states won’t feel safe anymore and they will flee their home. The two sides will, in turn, not only hard their political views, but grow more radical.

I could see Trump Tower — and FOX News — being seized and gutted in New York City and maybe even a Free State of NYC being established. Or something. Something whereby you have to risk your life and sacred honor specific on your political views — do you support Trump or Biden? You could die if you don’t answer correctly at the right time.

And, really, either the U.S. Military at last has to step in or even they won’t be able to do anything about it because the officers go Blue and the enlisted go Red, or even more dramatic than that with the entire U.S. Military imploding much like it did during the original Civil War.

Regardless, the point is — if we manage to punt this crisis down the road, the corrosive conditions that created this crisis aren’t going anywhere. We will simply kind of be a zombie Republic until Trump comes back in 2024 and finishes the job he started. Or it will be Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo. Or whomever.

Or, put another way — either we address the existential problems we face now, or we face the later. But there’s no escaping them.

American Tribulation


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing a lot of Twitter Liberals are oblivious about is how dire things are right now. They keep pontificating about the rise of fascism in the United States as if it’s a process that hasn’t happened yet — get woke, we are a fascist state NOW.

MAGA 2020.

Or, more specifically, we WOULD be a fascist state but for what a ding-dong our autocrat is. For me, all of this is very surreal because it’s like everything is there, waiting for Trump to go full autocrat….and he’s doing nothing. I can still think of a half a dozen ways he could seize “total control” RIGHT NOW…and…yet it appears as if he’s going to let Electors vote on Monday without even trying to get the Proud Boys to scare the shit out of them — or worse.

So, we lurch close and closer to a Biden getting sworn in and about half the electorate thinking he’s illegitimate. I will note something — the moment the Texas case came out of nowhere, I knew the Dead Hand of History was doing its thing. I have repeatedly said we’ve boxed ourselves into a civil war mindset and the Texas case is a prime example of that. Someone, somewhere with the ability to hand Trump his coup stepped up to the plate for no other reason than that’s where the momentum is right now.

Uh oh.

And, yet, again, Trump hasn’t done squat in real terms to attempt to seize “total control” even though many, many MAGA cocksuckers are begging him to do just that. I can only begin to believe that either Trump is going to allow a very surreal transfer of power actually happen, he’s going to go completely insane in some way, or, in the end, he’s going to finally go transactional and willfully destroy the United States after the point when we think we’ve managed to dodge a bullet.

Trump is so unpredictable, I can’t figure out what he’s going to do. In no small measure that comes from how difficult it is to figure out his motives at this point. Is it all about fundraising? Is it all about just not going to jail in NYS? If I could pin down is actual motives, then I could figure out his next course of action.

It seems more likely than not someone, or something is going to happen in a rather dramatic fashion between now and Jan. 20th….or a little bit afterwards. Let’s say Biden’s first 100 days. If we can actually get past, say, the Ides of March 2021, then things will have claimed down enough that we can all sigh a huge sigh of relief.

I feel you.

It just doesn’t seem like history is on our side right now. Electors could still get doxed, or murdered, or whatever. Trump could still get his Reichstag Fire with the help of the Proud Boys. Or Iran or the DPRK could give him cover to try to pull a Constitutional fast one on us while we’re distracted.

Let me make this clear — as a student of history, by every metric the United States is on the cusp of a historic and shocking implosion. I’m talking France 1940 or France 1789 type of shock. That the otherwise most stable, most powerful and arguably wealthiest nation in the world turn in on itself because of, what, white men without a college degree can’t get laid, is going to be one of the biggest shocks of the last 500 years.

America, 2020.

I’m wrong all the time. Hopefully, I’ll be wrong this time, too.

Eve Of Destruction


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is it, guys. Something between now and January 20th is going to happen that brings the United States to its knees. We’ve crossed the Rubicon. No going back.

It’s just a matter of what it is.

I can’t predict the future, so there’s about a 10% chance we punt this problem down the road. But I don’t see that happening. A sizable portion of the population has a blind rage against liberals and have such absolute fidelity to the Dear Leader they would rather destroy the country they claim to love than brook the possibility of him leaving office.

So, we’re on the eve of destruction. There’s going to be a civil war / revolution in the context World War 3 happening as a number of regional conflicts explode into hot conflict — with nuclear wepons.

And any civil war in the United States is going to be horrific. Just off the top of my head, I could see 10 to 30 million die in the United States civil war because of the frequent use of WMD that would be seized by both sides. Then I would estimate close to 1 billion might die outside the United States as Pakistan – India, China – India, DPRK – ROK, China – ROC, Israel – Iran, Russia – Ukraine all go after each other at the same time.

Of note — no way Trump stays in power beyond serving the purpose of his Russian handles — we see you Gen Mike Flynn! –of starting the civil war. He’s just too big a ding-dong to lead the Red States into a civil war. Someone like Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo would stage a coup against HIM and then things grow extremely violent and radical. Pompeo, in particular might simply make Trump a figure head so he can do a rain dance every morning in hopes of bringing Jesus back. (Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and, as such, if the “Tribulation” happens, Jesus is SURE to come back, right, Mike?)

But America will be made great again, I guess? Liberals will be owned>?

Trump’s Dangerous Game of Political Expectations


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, the United States is collectively boxing itself into a mental state where there HAS to be a civil war. It’s as if we’ve given up with politics at last. MAGA wants to kill liberals and liberals have resigned themselves to significant political violence.

Right now, Trump is doing everything in his power to make his true believers think he can still win. And, in a sense, he can — all he needs is one of his various asymmetrical attacks to work and he “doesn’t lose.”

But Trump being Trump, there’s zero strategic thought involved. He just doesn’t want to lose. If he was some sort of brilliant pol, he would take the L and wait until 2024 to make his comeback.

Yet Trump is a vicious ding-dong and so here we are.

The question is — what happens once it becomes clear that Trump isn’t going to win? Will MAGA simply freak out and start blowing shit up and murdering people? That’s kind of the question of the day right now. And if, say, the Texaas case at SCOTUS now goes Trump’s way, then it will be the other side that starts blowing shit up. I’ll be amazed if a honest-to-God civil war doesn’t erupt in the United States between now and Jan. 20th.

Trump is actively trying to destroy the United States because he wants to stay in power forever. So, the conditions are there now for that to happen.

If the United States descends into civil war / revolution then WW3 happens pretty quickly afterwards and millions die.

So, yeah, is America great again?

America Is Boxing Itself Into A Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve seen enough — we’ve lurched perilously close to an actual civil war, not just a cold civil war like we have now. The United States is one unexpected event away from imploding, taking the entire world order with it.

It could be anything at this point — a SCOTUS decision, an assassination, an Oklahoma City-type bombing (or two) or some combination of all those things. Or, put another way, our chances of civil war / revolution have grown significantly worse in just the last few days.

It’s like we’re boxing ourselves into a situation where one has to happen one way or another. On a psychological basis, at least, we’ve cross the Rubicon on this issue.

Americans are going to start killing each other for political reasons. To the point that WMD might be used and / or the U.S. Military implodes as individual members go Blue or Red.

Let me note two things — I don’t want this. And two, I’m wrong all the time.

So, it could be we escape and punt the consequences of the collapse of our political system down the road one more presidential cycle — or we don’t.

There Will Be Blood Because Trump Is Not A Political Genius


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I have often mentioned, Romans hated kings. They REALLY hated kings. So, they never had a monarch. They had plenty of Emperors, but no Kings after the first few mythical ones.

So, for 240 odd years, Americans have had a lot of pride in living in a free country with the peaceful transfer of power via a Constitution. And, now, because of a very lazy ding-dong, we’re careening towards American self-perception being rattled in a very brazen, very disturbing fashion.

Republicans are so caught up in their personality death cult, that they are completely oblivious to strategic implications of Trump’s coup. If it’s successful there will be blood, as they say.

And I say this as a man of peace and ideas.

I hate violence of any sort. I hate guns. I hate conflict. I just want to live in a liberal democracy.

Anyway, the point is — if Trump was some sort of fucking political genius like The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman would have us believe, then he would have struck before the press called the election.

Now, if he somehow magically wins at SCOTUS — or scares the shit out of Electors so they vote for him — there will be blood. Real people with real lives, families and careers are going to get hurt.

So, in a sense, it’s because of Trump being a huge old ding-dong that we’re in this situation to begin with. If Trump really was playing 8-dimensional chess he would be smooth enough to do all of this without the risk of, well, the entire nation convulsing and descending into anarchy with a lot of guns and potentially WMD.

But what do I know. Maggie Haberman is the star reporter, not me.

Coup State Of Play — Rudy Strikes Back


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I hate being right. Especially about shit like this. But Rudy has struck again with his Stormy Daniels Disinformation Playbook. While Twitter liberals were gloating about his farting and melting, Rudy has keep this bullshit in the public eye.

So, here we are.

Rudy has pretty much boxed SCOTUS into just the corner he wanted to.

But, not quite. He’s boxed SCOTUS into a corner in the eyes of 48% of the population. Not so much for 52%. And now Trump is putting all his chips on SCOTUS for them to overturn the election in his favor.

This is exactly — EXACTLY — what I’ve been ranting about for months and months now. All the conditions are there for Trump, Rudy and his merry band of idiots to “catch the car.” ‘

It would be the biggest event in American history since 9/11. It would be, as I have often called it, a “political 9/11.”

We would all walk around in a daze for a few hours at the implications that an actual fucking coup took place in the United States. The reason why it seems clear that a revolution / civil war would happen at that point is the States is so divided that while half the electorate was spooging its pants at the news, the other half would start protesting, rioting and saying, “THIS WILL NOT STAND.”

Shit would get lit pretty quick.

The Storming of Trump Tower, Winter 2020.

And once Trump had his thin veneer of legality to hide behind, he would use the Insurrection Act to stay in power as long as he liked. Or, put another way, he would strangle the Constitution right in front of us all with even realizing what he had done.

As I have written repeatedly, what would probably happen is initially is there would be rolling political violence such that Blue people in Red States and Red people in Blue States would flee, making the difference in the two sides more clear. This would lead to radicalization.

It’s even possible that both the Far Right and the Far Left would size power here and there on a state and local level and form Revolutionary governments. I could see this happening in, say, New York City. And definitely in some parts of my state of Virginia.

It’s even possible that the U.S. Military itself could implode as things progressed. Then you have the potential for Balkanization in among the States and pretty much World War 3 happening around the world as suddenly the United States isn’t there to stop Iran from bombing Israel or the DPRK from bombing South Korea.

And don’t get me started about the DPRK deciding to strike the US homeland itself just out of spite.

Anyway, we have to take this seriously. We’ve entered the valley of the shadow of death.

What happens next is anyone’s guess.

Incels, MAGA & Undead American Democracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue to understand is American Democracy as we know it is dead. About half the population wants an autocracy pretty much because they can’t get laid. Technology has made it so blue collar men without a college education can no longer afford to get married and raise a family.

Everything else is just rationalization.

As such, at its core, the racism, misogyny and bigotry of MAGA is pretty much just men angry with blue balls. Or put another way, the idea of the “incel” is far more significant than one might think when it comes to how fucked up American politics is.

If you think you’re being forced to be celibate, then you’re probably going to be open to the ideas of the Proud Boys, or other forms of extremism. I guess what I’m suggesting is under the “resource” theory of history, a big chunk of men hate women and minorities because they lack the means to acquire the “resource” of sex.

The point of all of this is Trump has about half the population begging him to be an autocrat, to kill American democracy once and for all and, in a sense, he can’t get it up. To date, at least, he’s all talk. He gave Republicans hundreds of young hack MAGA judges and a huge plutocrat tax cut….but he can’t be bothered to take the final step of killing American democracy. This, even though a huge swath of the population wants him to do it. Like I said, in fact, people like Lou Dobbs and Gen. Mike Flynn are literally BEGGING him to do it.

And he can’t do it.

This is not to say America isn’t still in a very dangerous situation. Trump could still do something really, really crazy in a last ditch effort to stay in office, no matter what. He could very well snap in some way and destroy the country out of spite — and a fear of going to jail in New York State.

I have no idea what is in store for America at this point.

A lot depends on the economy and people like Tom Cotton. If Cotton manages to become president in 2025 or 2029, then that’s it, we’re an autocracy. The United States will be little more than Belarus.

And, yet, that’s kind of our best case scenario, given macro trends. The worst case scenario is there will be an organized effort to give Trump his Reichstag Fire NOW, so he can stay in power. It is easy to imagine a situation where there are a series of Oklahoma City bombings across the country in major Blue State cities between now and January 20th.

Or there’s a war with the DPRK or Iran.

You name it. What otherwise might happen gradually between now and 2029 might happen violently between now and January 20, 2021. You can dog whistle the need for violence for only so long before someone, somewhere is going to take you up on it.

And we haven’t even gotten to the part where Trump doxes Electors.

So if we manage to punt this particular autocratic problem down the road one election cycle because, in the end, Trump really is just an empty suit, no an autocrat, well, I don’t know if I’m supposed to laugh or cry.