Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

Pay Attention, People: Rudy Wants Republicans To Nullify The Election Of Joe Biden On An Institutional Level


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are so very fucked. I’m well aware that I overestimate RudyTrumpBar a lot, but Rudy is using on Republicans the same strategy he has used time and again on the American people over the last 4 years. Rudy doesn’t care about court, he cares about media narrative messaging for one specific group: the Republicans who have it within their power to certify the vote.

And that’s just one of several huge crises we have to suffer through. If the certification crisis doesn’t work, then we have the Elector Intemidation crisis to live through. THEN we have the Great Trump January Freak Out crisis to deal with.

Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never fucking lose.

I’m wrong all the fucking time. But it definitely seems as this point either we stumble into an extreme version of the 2000 election or we have a fucking civil war / revolution. Like, one where real people with real lives — like you and fucking me — die for no Goddamn reason.

The “best” case scenario then is we just have lingering political violence after Trump uses the Insurrection Act to manage the country. Worst fucking case scenario is the country implodes and we have an actual, real life fucking civil war with armies and WMD used, the entire collapse of the global order and WW3.

I’m well aware that this sounds extremely hysterical, but Rudy has made it quite clear what his strategy is — he wants to “shame” Republicans into nullifying the election for our very lazy, very deranged autocrat Mad King.

This is our future. Or, at least, the future Rudy is actively attempting to create. What happens when this “political 9/11” happens is up to us.

The MAGA Dog That Hasn’t Bitten Anyone (Yet)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Thankfully, no MAGA cocksucker has taken Trump up on his now near-constant effort to incite political violence. Not that it won’t happen, but it’s eerie that it hasn’t happened to date.

Anyway, all that has to happen is one (or a few) Oklahoma City-style bombings or a major assassination and that could be the cover Trump needs to take ‘total control.”

Or, put another way, we have a very, very, very long few weeks ahead of us. Remember, Rudy being in control of the Trump Campaign’s effort to steal the election has more to do messaging Republican state legislatures than anything else.

It’s easy to imagine a “political 9/11” situation where a number of Republican legislatures all decide at the same time to not certifiy the election. Then it all goes to Congress where the law on all of this is shit. Thus, it goes to SCOTUS and Trump will absolutely win, no matter what.

What’s more, even if we get passed the certification crisis, we still have the Elector intimidation crisis and the January Trump freakout crisis. Good luck.

Why Trump Will Dox Electors On Twitter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m wrong all the time. But here’s something to think about.

  1. Trump is deranged.
    Trump is an autocrat — if a very bad one — and as it grows more obvious that he will be indicted by NYS after leaving office, he’s going to do anything necessary to “not lose.”
  2. It will be value free.
    By the time we get around to impeaching Trump for doing this, we’ll have moved on to the next thing. The intimidated Electors were “legal” votes and fuck you, lib.
  3. He’ll be president, fuck you lib.
    What are you going to do if Trump intimidates Electors to vote for him, impeach and convict him? This is never going to work, especially if Democrats can’t take the Senate. So, in that sense, at a minimum, Interior Minster Barr will believe Trump can get away with a coup. Trump will dox Electors on Twitter, the Proud Boys scare the hell out of them — they vote for Trump. The End. Coup successful. (Though, of course, this would likely cause a civil war / revolution, but #MoscowMitch doesn’t think in those terms. It’s all about power for power’s sake and owning the libs.)

MAGA Is Just Identity Politics For White People


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear, that going to one small MAGA rally in DC does not an expert on the subject make. But it was my first MAGA rally and it made a big impression on me. Then I talked to a relative who is conservative-but-not-MAGA and something occurred to me.

One reason why it’s so fucking hard to deal with MAGA is at its core, it’s identity politics for white people, but you can’t bring that up because they get all defensive and think you’re calling them, personally, racist. What’s more, they don’t even believe in systemic racism — period — so you can’t even bring that up.

Throw in the two sides no longer having a shared reality and, well, you have the makings of a pretty unstable country. And I honestly don’t know how this particular situation fixes itself peacefully. We have about 20 years before the dead hand of demographics finally whittles away at the core of the Republican Party — old people.

What’s more, it’s possible that as brown people grow more “white,” that their natural Catholic conservatism will kick in and, well, we turn into an autocracy no matter what. That could just be our fate now — the United States, on a macro level, is going to become an honest-to-God autocracy in my lifetime.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen.

The Longest Month


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have, as I understand it, about a month before two critical things happen — the state legislatures certify the vote and then, soon after, Electors vote. Now, on a strictly political level, Interior Minister Bill Barr really has his work cut out for him if he plans to make sure our tinpot tyrant “doesn’t lose.”

But, lulz, he doesn’t care. The same logic that allowed the Republicans to quickie-confirm Amy Coney Barrett to SCOTUS will allow Barr to take his chances on staging a coup (in some way) between now and about Dec 12th. I don’t know what he’s got up his sleeve, but I will be flabbergasted if Moscow Mitch doesn’t get on the Senate floor and tell us all that “legal” votes have been counted and Trump is going to get a second term.

Of course, this would mark not only the end of the First Republic, but likely the beginning of some sort of civil war / revolution — what I call The Big Ugly. One thing is clear, no matter what — it appears as though should Trump actually be physically removed from the White House (probably after pardoning himself) the Republican Party is going to be made up entirely of Trump deadenders. Either you believe that Trump is STILL president and have to be forcibly removed from your job, or you’re not a Republican.

But wait, there’s more — Trump also has a month to start a war in an effort to distract us all while he steal the election. It’s very easy to imagine the DPRK shooting off an ICBM or testing a H-bomb and Trump mysteriously changing his views on Little Rocket Man so there’s a war. By the time we figure out what happened, Trump is ensconced in the White House for another four years and fuck you, lib.

There are plenty of pretty dark scenarios. Somehow the vote isn’t certified, it gets through into Congress and then thrown to SCOTUS where Trump wins. Trump gets desperate and doxes all the Democratic Electors, telling the Proud Boys to remind them of “the power of the Second Amendment.” The moment it really, truly begins to sink in Trump that he isn’t going to be president anymore, there is absolutely nothing he might not attempt.

He could very well destroy the entire country for the sole purpose of not having his feelings hurt. Good luck, guys.

MAGA As ‘Mind Virus’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have been exposed to the MAGA mind virus way too much the last few days. I fear I’m really beginning to understand how Nazism was able to consume Germany.

The first way it happens is when the center-Left and the center-Right can neither agree on facts nor agree on the interpretation of facts. This lets someone like Trump swoop in and seize control. Once you’re post-factual, then you really begin to work on the basis of faith, not facts.

Also, when you reach a point where all you do is think about The Dear Leader, you don’t have time to remember that, duh, someone like Biden — who is extremely middle of the road — isn’t REALLY a pawn of “AOC+3.”

Then, of course, there is just the issue of nullification, confirmation basis and denialism. You have an absolute abstract fear of being “canceled” simply for being conservative and so when you point out that there’s some serious racism, bigotry and misogyny going on, the person just waves it off and says they know what Trump “really” means.

But we have to never forget that MAGA is American Nazism. We can’t let our guard down. The moment we do, they will figure out away to make Trump’s nightmare dream a reality.

The Big Punt


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve long talked about “A Big Ugly” happening if Trump mysteriously — especially now — “doesn’t lose.” Well, it’s at least possible that a unique set of political circumstances we’re just going to punt the consequences of the existential rot facing America down the road a few years.

Or maybe not.

I still can’t imagine Interior Minister Bill Barr just giving up and letting Trump actually lose. It makes no sense. But if somehow Barr DOESN’T pull something of his butt to keep Trump in power, then it’s very possible that for about 50% of the population the Biden Era will simply be a House Trump Interregnum. And either they try to violently end that interregnum, or they win in 2024 and force the hand of the OTHERSIDE and all my nightmare scenarios happen that way.

Or, put another way, seeing a MAGA rally face-to-face this weekend was a real wakeup call. MAGA isn’t going anywhere and their devotion to Trump is so absolute that it’s inevitable that they’re going to destroy the United States one way or another.

Hopefully I’m wrong. I often (obviously) am.

Bill Barr’s Coming(?) Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason why I’m beginning to wonder if Bill Barr is going to stage a coup or not is, well, politically the decision has been made — Trump lost. And, yet, it would also make a huge amount of sense for Barr to pull something out of his butt so The Dear Leader mysteriously gets a second term.

Though, one has to note that such a legal coup would not happen in a vacuum. A civil war or revolution would almost certainly erupt even if Barr managed to pull it off. Or, put another way, while on paper TrumpBarr has every reason to believe they could successfully pull off a coup by fucking around with the “legal” votes, there would be consequences.

But what, exactly, might Barr do?

I dunno. I don’t know enough about this particular subject to be able to tell you. Maybe sue the states so the vote isn’t certified, it goes to Congress, then SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose?”

All I know is, Barr still has about a month to pull something out of his butt. Autocrats never lose. So, it makes sense that Barr is just plotting right now and will spring out of his hole at some point between now and when the votes are certified and the Electors vote.

TrumpBarr Coup Preflight & Triage


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I have long predicted, TrumpBarr is staging a coup. Now what? Well, while absolutely no one listens to me, let’s see where things stand. We have to assume the moment TrumpBarr strikes, there will be significant violence on the part of Biden supporters. And that, in itself, will be enough for TrumpBarr to invoke the Insurrection Act.

That’s just a given.

Remember, it is going to be extremely easy for TrumpBarr to convince 50% of the population that Trump is the “legal” president after all the “legal” votes have been counted. In fact, I don’t even think MAGA-Qanon people will even care how brazen the lie is. They want the autocrat to stay in power and cry more, lib.

The invoking of the Insurrection Act is going to be a bodyblow, but not a knockout one. At least, not if we assume that’s happening no matter what. Unlike some of the nattering nabobs of negativism on Twitter, I am not completely oblivious to human nature and simply accept that there will be significant protests when TrumpBarr stages its coup. That’s just a given.

What TrumpBarr wants to do is sucker punch Biden supporters through it’s control of SCOTUS, the government and the military (via the Insurrection Act.) They want to, in essence, to do a political 9/11 on the First Republic from within. Since most people, now that the election has been called, assume Biden is going to be president, they are going to have the element of surprise.

But once the Insurrection Act is invoked, what do we do?

We’re going to have to start thinking existential. Once the Insurrection Act is used, we have to accept that the First Republic is dead. The best we can hope for is to renew the American Covenant by founding a Second Republic. This will be extremely painful for a number of reasons, but to think the First Republic exists once someone as deranged as Trump can use the military to knock heads is delusional.

We need to start thinking about First Principles and how we might fight back. Now, the following is abstract — at least to me. I’m not advocating any form of violence, but I am, in an abstract manner, noodling different ways we could counter-attack against MAGA-Qanon. I hate violence and I’m a man of peace. So when TrumpBarr’s sham People’s Court tries me for sedition, at least I will have made it clear I wasn’t actually advocating anything. (Not that it will matter by that point.)

The first thing we have to do is keep California in the Union. Another thing might be to figure out where the Second Republic’s provisional seat of power might be. New York City makes the most since, but on a strictly macro political level, you might want somewhere in California.

Also, I think we need to take a hard look at what is really going on with the United States. The key strength of the Blue States is they have a lot of population in a small geographical area. This is good because you don’t have as much area to defend. Yes, for the moment Blue States aren’t contiguous but that could potentially be fixed rather easily — I mean, if things really get bad, who’s going to stop a blitzkrieg through Idaho? I know there are plenty of survivalists there who have been waiting for this moment for 40 years, but, still, come on.

Additionally, we don’t know if the U.S. Military, in real terms, is going to continue as a institution. It’s possible, not probably, that much like the first Civil War, the U.S. Military will implode and there will be two different armies going at it.

One thing is important — if this dystopian hellscape scenario actually took place we would need leaders, an agenda and demands. Or, in short — vision. We would have to know what we were fighting for. In fact, I would say that’s the biggest weakness Biden forces have going into this clusterfuck.

MAGA-Qanon know what they’re fighting for — the glory of the Dear Leader. So, they think they can suckerpunch Biden forces and that will be that. And, tragically, they’re probably right.

But who knows. The South in 1861 had every reason to believe they could suckerpunch the North out of the war and we all know how that worked out. I guess what I’m saying is — don’t take anything for granted. The Bad Guys can actually win. But, just as equally, can the Good Guys. Good luck.

How Soon Is Now? Twitter Liberals Need To Get Woke to A Possible Brewing Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Twitter liberals right now are completely fucking useless. They are so busy scoring points on Twitter and preening about their latest piece in The Atlantic that they are quaintly assuming the traditional rules of politics apply to the shitshow brewing right now.


Sadly, 50% of the population knows what is obvious: politics is dead in America right now. We’ve left the realm of politics and now we are dealing with realpolitik. Things like can we keep California in the Union, can Blue State governors call up militia legally are the things we have to worry about now. This sounds hysterical, I know. And I will be so grateful if I’m proven wrong. I have a novel to finish, afterall.

You now who Twitter liberals remind me of? Horace Greeley. He was the publisher of The New York Tribune and ran for president (then died) in 1872. He was famous for saying in 1861, “Wayward sisters, part in peace.” He was the OG Internet crank, too. He was a real pain in the but for Lincoln for a variety of reasons.

Anyway, just like Greeley, Twitter liberals are completely clueless about what’s going on and how to deal with it. There are no assurances the Good Guys will win. In fact, we may have a pretty dystopian future ahead of us for the next, well, long time. About 50% of the population is cool with autocracy and spare me your “oh, that would never happen.”

Or, put another way, it definitely seems as though 2020 is it — about 50 years of macro trends are reaching a tipping point, just as I have repeatedly written on this blog.

This could be it. This could be the end of the United States’ First Republic. I have no idea what is going to happen. There’s no obvious endgame. No fate but what we make, as they say at the end of Terminator 2.