Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

America Is Boxing Itself Into A Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve seen enough — we’ve lurched perilously close to an actual civil war, not just a cold civil war like we have now. The United States is one unexpected event away from imploding, taking the entire world order with it.

It could be anything at this point — a SCOTUS decision, an assassination, an Oklahoma City-type bombing (or two) or some combination of all those things. Or, put another way, our chances of civil war / revolution have grown significantly worse in just the last few days.

It’s like we’re boxing ourselves into a situation where one has to happen one way or another. On a psychological basis, at least, we’ve cross the Rubicon on this issue.

Americans are going to start killing each other for political reasons. To the point that WMD might be used and / or the U.S. Military implodes as individual members go Blue or Red.

Let me note two things — I don’t want this. And two, I’m wrong all the time.

So, it could be we escape and punt the consequences of the collapse of our political system down the road one more presidential cycle — or we don’t.

There Will Be Blood Because Trump Is Not A Political Genius


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I have often mentioned, Romans hated kings. They REALLY hated kings. So, they never had a monarch. They had plenty of Emperors, but no Kings after the first few mythical ones.

So, for 240 odd years, Americans have had a lot of pride in living in a free country with the peaceful transfer of power via a Constitution. And, now, because of a very lazy ding-dong, we’re careening towards American self-perception being rattled in a very brazen, very disturbing fashion.

Republicans are so caught up in their personality death cult, that they are completely oblivious to strategic implications of Trump’s coup. If it’s successful there will be blood, as they say.

And I say this as a man of peace and ideas.

I hate violence of any sort. I hate guns. I hate conflict. I just want to live in a liberal democracy.

Anyway, the point is — if Trump was some sort of fucking political genius like The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman would have us believe, then he would have struck before the press called the election.

Now, if he somehow magically wins at SCOTUS — or scares the shit out of Electors so they vote for him — there will be blood. Real people with real lives, families and careers are going to get hurt.

So, in a sense, it’s because of Trump being a huge old ding-dong that we’re in this situation to begin with. If Trump really was playing 8-dimensional chess he would be smooth enough to do all of this without the risk of, well, the entire nation convulsing and descending into anarchy with a lot of guns and potentially WMD.

But what do I know. Maggie Haberman is the star reporter, not me.

Coup State Of Play — Rudy Strikes Back


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I hate being right. Especially about shit like this. But Rudy has struck again with his Stormy Daniels Disinformation Playbook. While Twitter liberals were gloating about his farting and melting, Rudy has keep this bullshit in the public eye.

So, here we are.

Rudy has pretty much boxed SCOTUS into just the corner he wanted to.

But, not quite. He’s boxed SCOTUS into a corner in the eyes of 48% of the population. Not so much for 52%. And now Trump is putting all his chips on SCOTUS for them to overturn the election in his favor.

This is exactly — EXACTLY — what I’ve been ranting about for months and months now. All the conditions are there for Trump, Rudy and his merry band of idiots to “catch the car.” ‘

It would be the biggest event in American history since 9/11. It would be, as I have often called it, a “political 9/11.”

We would all walk around in a daze for a few hours at the implications that an actual fucking coup took place in the United States. The reason why it seems clear that a revolution / civil war would happen at that point is the States is so divided that while half the electorate was spooging its pants at the news, the other half would start protesting, rioting and saying, “THIS WILL NOT STAND.”

Shit would get lit pretty quick.

The Storming of Trump Tower, Winter 2020.

And once Trump had his thin veneer of legality to hide behind, he would use the Insurrection Act to stay in power as long as he liked. Or, put another way, he would strangle the Constitution right in front of us all with even realizing what he had done.

As I have written repeatedly, what would probably happen is initially is there would be rolling political violence such that Blue people in Red States and Red people in Blue States would flee, making the difference in the two sides more clear. This would lead to radicalization.

It’s even possible that both the Far Right and the Far Left would size power here and there on a state and local level and form Revolutionary governments. I could see this happening in, say, New York City. And definitely in some parts of my state of Virginia.

It’s even possible that the U.S. Military itself could implode as things progressed. Then you have the potential for Balkanization in among the States and pretty much World War 3 happening around the world as suddenly the United States isn’t there to stop Iran from bombing Israel or the DPRK from bombing South Korea.

And don’t get me started about the DPRK deciding to strike the US homeland itself just out of spite.

Anyway, we have to take this seriously. We’ve entered the valley of the shadow of death.

What happens next is anyone’s guess.

Incels, MAGA & Undead American Democracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue to understand is American Democracy as we know it is dead. About half the population wants an autocracy pretty much because they can’t get laid. Technology has made it so blue collar men without a college education can no longer afford to get married and raise a family.

Everything else is just rationalization.

As such, at its core, the racism, misogyny and bigotry of MAGA is pretty much just men angry with blue balls. Or put another way, the idea of the “incel” is far more significant than one might think when it comes to how fucked up American politics is.

If you think you’re being forced to be celibate, then you’re probably going to be open to the ideas of the Proud Boys, or other forms of extremism. I guess what I’m suggesting is under the “resource” theory of history, a big chunk of men hate women and minorities because they lack the means to acquire the “resource” of sex.

The point of all of this is Trump has about half the population begging him to be an autocrat, to kill American democracy once and for all and, in a sense, he can’t get it up. To date, at least, he’s all talk. He gave Republicans hundreds of young hack MAGA judges and a huge plutocrat tax cut….but he can’t be bothered to take the final step of killing American democracy. This, even though a huge swath of the population wants him to do it. Like I said, in fact, people like Lou Dobbs and Gen. Mike Flynn are literally BEGGING him to do it.

And he can’t do it.

This is not to say America isn’t still in a very dangerous situation. Trump could still do something really, really crazy in a last ditch effort to stay in office, no matter what. He could very well snap in some way and destroy the country out of spite — and a fear of going to jail in New York State.

I have no idea what is in store for America at this point.

A lot depends on the economy and people like Tom Cotton. If Cotton manages to become president in 2025 or 2029, then that’s it, we’re an autocracy. The United States will be little more than Belarus.

And, yet, that’s kind of our best case scenario, given macro trends. The worst case scenario is there will be an organized effort to give Trump his Reichstag Fire NOW, so he can stay in power. It is easy to imagine a situation where there are a series of Oklahoma City bombings across the country in major Blue State cities between now and January 20th.

Or there’s a war with the DPRK or Iran.

You name it. What otherwise might happen gradually between now and 2029 might happen violently between now and January 20, 2021. You can dog whistle the need for violence for only so long before someone, somewhere is going to take you up on it.

And we haven’t even gotten to the part where Trump doxes Electors.

So if we manage to punt this particular autocratic problem down the road one election cycle because, in the end, Trump really is just an empty suit, no an autocrat, well, I don’t know if I’m supposed to laugh or cry.

Trump Is So Bad At Being An Autocrat


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really don’t know what the deal is with our tinpot tyrant and would-be autocrat Trump. He wants to stay in office so bad…and yet he’s not really doing anything on a practical level — to date — but whining and calling random Republicans up in important positions hoping they’ll carry his water.

So, what could he be doing?

Well, if I was him, I would go after the Electors themselves right now. It’s a low risk, high reward bet. If he can get away with attempting a very lazy coup by ranting on the phone at Republican elected officials, why not use power of the presidency to woo — or scare the shit out of — the people who actual have the “legal votes” to make him president?

If Trump DOESN’T do that, that, well, Maggie Haberman can suck it. She’s a fool who sold her sold to a tyrant for access. Because Trump would not in any way be a political genius. He’s just a very, very lucky — and lazy — idiot.

But he still has time to prove he is political genius — the electors don’t vote until Dec 15th (I think) — and he could still very well retweet some insane fascist who doxxes all the Electors. It’s very, very, very, very easy to see him do that.

Or a random Elector is murdered by a Proud Boy, or something. Something like that.

And, of course, there’s still the possibility of an unexpected war with the DPRK or Iran.

One thing that Trump might do on his way out is replace Barr with someone who would do his bidding when it came to arresting people. It’s possible Trump could get his new toady at Justice to frogwalk Biden for some bullshit reason, then demand he won’t get prosecuted — at all, for any reason — once he leaves office.

Just be aware that America faces a pretty big existential crisis between now and January 20th.

Trump Isn’t An Autocrat, He’s a Craven Ding-Dong


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I could still be proven wrong by events, but it’s starting to look like Trump going to lose, lose. And since autocrats never lose, I can only begin to believe that while Trump has plenty — and I mean PLENTY — of autocratic impulses and inclinations, in reality he’s just a craven ding-dong.

In other words, he just doesn’t have the backbone — or intelligence — to do even the bare minimum of skullduggery necessary to end our democracy which is on life support anyway. And, so in the end, Republicans get their young hack MAGA judges and their huge taxcut for plutocrats….and that’s it. Otherwise the Trump Era will be completely value free. In a sense, it, in itself, will be looked upon as the civil war we’ve all been afraid of.

But instead of a hot war, we had a cold civil culture war. Instead of bullets, we had tweets.

And, yet, we’re one explosion away from everything I just wrote being seen as quaint. And that, really, is the point. People like me assumed Trump would pull a false flag — or something — sized “total control” and that would be that. And, really, if we box Iran or the DPRK into a war, then that could still very well happen.

Or, say, a for real for real false flag happens when one of Trump’s SUPPORTERS blows something important to MAGA people up in an effort to give Trump the power to invoke the Insurrection Act.

Regardless, from now until about mid-2021 we are in a very, very tense and volatile situation.

What Is Trump Up To At The Pentagon?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something weird is going on at the Pentagon. Trump keeps firing people and filling seemingly obscure posts with his toadies. The most innocent explanation is he’s doing it all out of spite. He’s trying to establish some sort of Trump Deep State that will cause headaches for the incoming Biden Administration and that’s it.

The more ominous explanation is he’s keeping his options open.

In other words, Trump is thinking there might be some way for him to stage a real, honest-to-God-coup and he wants as many of his toadies at the Pentagon to see that it’s successful.

But, still, something pretty big would have to happen for him to feel he could actually pull that off. He’d have to get a war with Iran or the DPRK — or an American Reichstag fire — for him to have to cover necessary to fuck with the Constitution at this point.

It has to be noted that Trump obviously has autocratic inclinations but, to date, he simply either hasn’t had the guts or the focus to do what is necessary to turn himself into an American Putin, even though everything is there for him to pull it off but for one thing — himself.

Trump — to date — simply is too big a ding-dong to ram through the autocratic acts necessary to establish House Trump. It’s all very weird and surreal given how obvious it is what Trump would have to do — and could do — to facilitate just that.

The Rise of The Trump Deep State — What A Surreal End To A Surreal Time


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It appears as though Trump is wildly vacillating between ranting about he didn’t lose to actively attempting to found his own Trump Deep State that will do everything in its power to screw over the incoming Biden Administration.

If Trump was who he thought he was, then I would be right that “autocrats never lose.” But in a surreal turn of events, the Trump Era may — may — go out not with the bang of a coup, but with the whimper of Trump appointing as many crazy MAGA people to positions in the government as he possibly can.

In fact, as I’ve often said, the Trump Deep State may be one of the biggest stories of the next four years because while Trump ranted about a Deep State that didn’t exist, by the time Biden becomes president, there REALLY WILL BE a Deep State — this time, however, it will be shithead cocksucker MAGA people.

We really can’t begin to predict how, exactly, all of this is going to play out. But I can tell you that because MAGA-Republicans have no fucking shame that any — and I mean ANY — attempt on the part of Biden to right this infection will cause them to demand a full investigation for this abuse of power.

Or, put another way — the moment the House flips in 2022, Republicans are going to plot how they can get revenge for the impeachment of Trump by doing the same damn thing to Biden.

A Few Ways Exist To Look At The Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

1. Precursor To Civil War
This is the theory that the late 2010s will be seen as the same way as the late 1850s and we’re not about to have a cold civil war but a REAL civil war. It just hasn’t happened yet. And if it doesn’t happen it won’t happen for the specific reason that Trump, while a would be autocrat, simply doesn’t have the skillset necessary to force the issue and bring down the First Republic.

2. It WAS The Civil War (Cold)
Under this theory, the Trump Era WAS the civil war, it just was just a cold one. Once the Biden Era starts officially, we’ll snap back to about the 2000 era (with a huge amount of lingering resentment) and that’s it. We’re going to have a Roaring Twenties Redux and probably the rise of Neo-Luddites later in the decade as Elon Musk burns the trucking industry — with 3 million high paying blue collar jobs — to the ground.

3. Value Free
In this view, the Trump Era was completely value free. It doesn’t mean anything. In fact, the only thing that matters — to conservatives — are those sweet, sweet tax cuts and young hack MAGA judges. Nothing has changed from 2016 and Trump could very well come back in 2024 tan, ready and rested to do it all over again like zombie U.S. Grant and the Stalwarts.

4. A Fluke
With this one, Trump was simply the right guy at the right time and, in a sense, is a failed Hitler. He COULD have become an American Hitler but he was such a fucking empty suit that he couldn’t pull it off. (I really don’t ascribe to this one — yet.)

5. Fuck You, Lib
Lulz, nothing matters.

Autocrats Never Lose, So What Happened To Trump (So Far?)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve asked this before, but let’s think about it again — if autocrats never lose, how come Trump seems to be?

Well, a lot is going on.

Trump is Old
Putin was much, much younger when he assumed power after Boris Yeltsin. So, he had time to grow into his role as autocrat. And, he was focused, organized and driven — none of which Trump is. Trump is much more of a Hitler character in the sense that he is an avatar for the rot in the psyche of the American political system. He’s so old, too, that he simply doesn’t have the skill set necessary to do the hard work needed to destroy the First Republic.

Trump is Lazy, Oblivious and Incompetent
So, Trump may have a lot of autocratic impulses, but he just doesn’t — to date — have it in him to force the issue. This is not to say that some sort of false flag Reichstag operation might not happen between now and January 20th. If it doesn’t happen between now and Dec 15th when the Electoral College votes, things grow far more difficult for House Trump.

Trump Has Been Unlucky
To date, America has avoided a major war with the DPRK or Iran — or a Reichstag Fire, for that matter. So, if something like that happens between now and Dec 15th, say, then it’s possible Trump could take the “total control” for no other reason than he might think he could pull a Constitutional fast one on us while we were busy defeating either Iran or the DPRK.

The point is — we’re not out of the woods yet. But every day Trump doesn’t go full autocratic is a lost day that makes it far more difficult for him to do just that.