Watch Me Be An Internet Crank


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not exactly in a situation where anyone will listen to me if I get upset over what I might hear on a liberal podcast, but I’m a devoted student of history and when I hear bullshit, I call it out.

So, there I was, listening to Deep State Radio when a historian they had on as a guest said some pretty weird things. I’m not questioning her credentials — I mean, she was on Deep State Radio, not me — but some her historical interpretations left me cold. I don’t remember her name and don’t care to spend the energy to look it up — which is probably for the best — but here’s what is eating away at me.

First, she said that Lincoln and Grant’s decision not to throw the book at the leaders of the Confederacy after the Civil War was a huge mistake because it led to the “Lost Cause” mythos. As a Southerner, I can tell you that is complete and total bullshit.

The Lost Cause was a macro trend that was inevitable given how ingrained slavery was in Southern culture and the lingering sense of nascent nationhood within the defeated CSA. By the end of the war, the North just wanted to put the whole thing behind it — enough blood had been shed — and so it was decided that in the name of mending the nation’s wounds that Jefferson Davis, Gen. Lee, et al would be given a pass.

And, remember, Lincoln’s Second Inaugural address was all about forgiveness and compassion. It would have been pretty weird for him to be in favor of prosecuting the leaders of the defeated Confederacy. What’s more, the United States was very, very lucky that once the CSA was defeated that everyone was so chill as Reconstruction changed everything.

A note on Reconstruction — one of my pet peeves is when someone talks about the missed opportunity of Reconstruction. This bothers me because at the time, nobody knew nothing about how to handle the situation, so there were a lot of mistakes, half-starts and dumb compromises. It just was not practical to fix 300 odd years of servitude within the two year period of time that Reconstruction really had to do anything.

And if Reconstruction had been as radical as it could have been, there’s a good chance that all the prosperity that the United States enjoyed in the latter part of the 19th century would not have happened. What I’m saying is — don’t superimpose the woke expectations of the 21 century on what was going on during Reconstruction. It was probably doomed to fail no matter what happened, because to fix the systemic problems left over from slavery, you probably would have had to kill a lot of people over and above the number of people who died in the Civil War itself.

Reconstruction was, in fact, a unique moment in American history because for a brief moment the ideals of America actually were done in a real, practical manner. But, like I said, there was a lot going on at the time and there came a point when the victorious North grew tired of the South and gave up. This was going to happen eventually, no matter what. Americans, by nature, aren’t very radical for great lengths of time and Southern whites were just way too fucking racist to do a yadda, yadda, yadda, we’re going to have a society without any systemic racism anymore. Race is called America’s original sin for a reason.

The other thing that really fucking annoys me about what the historian said was her statement that some big event happened in 1879 that was almost the death of American democracy. I know my American political history fairly well and there was nothing that happened that year that could have possibly be interpreted as some sort of autocratic path not taken.

She brought this year up and there was no follow up by anyone else on the postcast. Either she misspoke the year in question or her interpretation of something that happened that year is so off the wall that her wokeness has warped her historical perspective.

Like I said, no one is going to listen to me. I’m kind of in the same situation Twitter is in whenever we all collectively gang up on the Trump Whisperer Maggie Haberman — powerful liberals are always — and I mean always — going to circle the waggons around her because she’s a member of the elite and they look after their own.

AOC’s Extraordinary Personal Brand Management


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate that a taboo exists about discussing the fact that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez  is the type of woman that Juvenile would sing songs about. I mean, damn, girl, back that thang up. But as AOC is obviously thinking about taking her political career to the next level by challenging Chuck Schumer in next year’s Democratic primary we have to talk about her beauty.

Here’s what she wants us to think about her — she’s just another young, ambitious politician in D.C. with the best interests of her constituency at heart.

Ok, yadda, yadda, yadda, but she’s a bombshell — and an unmarried one without kids, to boot.

AOC

AOC does everything in her power to downplay her natural beauty. She usually wears black to mute her figure. And when she does wear white, it’s to send a political message — she’s living the dream of the suffragettes.

The argument could be made that it’s her beauty more than her political views that have made her the FOX News lightening rod that she is. Many, many conservatives who watch FOX News feel they know AOC’s “type” — she’s that sassy Bronx-Queens bartender they banged that one time who wouldn’t shut up about marginal tax rates the morning after.

The issue is — if she wants to be president, she’s going to have to start to think about getting married and having kids. I mean, even Bill and Hillary Clinton got married and had at least one (1) child. I don’t make the rules, folks, I’m just telling you what they are.

Of course, the counter argument is in the modern era a progressive woman like AOC isn’t expected to do the traditional political home-and-hearth pandering that politicians have been doing since Alexander the Great died in Babylonia. In fact, she could very well simply do exactly what she’s been doing and become president — what do I know, I’m a moron rando in a flyover state.

It just grates on my nerves that the mainstream media refuses to talk about the subject of how hot she is. It’s — quite literally — staring us in the face. To date, only that one video of her dancing on a rooftop has come out that bucks her personal brand management. And I say, good for her, if she has managed to get this far without a sexxxy bikini pic mysterioius popping up on FOX News, then she definitely has the forethought and discipline to be president one day.

And, remember, the United States is careening towards the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta by January 2025– just the type of situation that would push AOC into a pretty extraordinary and historic situation.

AOC’s Political Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


AOC

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is one of those divisive political figures whose entire world could be changed if there was a severe crisis in the United States in January 2025 as I predict. When the type of existential choice of civil war, military junta or autocracy presents itself to a nation, it’s usually people like AOC who get shoved into a situation where they can rise to the occasion.

But, let’s talk more mundane things: is she going to primary Charles Schumer?

This is a complicated question because AOC is nationally popular within the national center-Left, but is so much of a lightening rod that she turns off a lot of moderates. And the only way she’s going to defeat Schumer is if she banks Right to the point that she no longer spooks moderates. But should would have to do it in such a way that she did not alienate the progressives who love her so much.

So…I dunno.

The case could be made that given that it would be a primary that she could use her Leftist support to win it, THEN bank Right for the general.

If she does mange to pull of that hat trick, then she is going to hurtle towards a battle royal with VP Kamala Harris to succeeded Biden — who I just don’t see running for a second term, no matter what he may have us believe.

But, as I mentioned, AOC is just the type of person who history would point its finger at if we face the historic, existential choice in January 2025 of autocracy, civil war or military junta. If that happens, everything will get scrambled in a jaw dropping manner to the point that we might see AOC cozy up with the leaders of the #NeverTrump movement.

A few pink political elephants exist whenever one talks about AOC. Traditional politics would dictate that she has about four years to get married and have a kid — in that order. She needs to do it, like NOW. But she is a Leftist darling, so, lulz, what do I know. I will also note that I am in awe that not one — not one! — bikini picture has surfaced of her since she caught national attention. AOC is a bombshell and the amount of forethought necessary for her political team to eliminate any photographic evidence of a what a babe she is, is impressive.

I think it’s annoying that it would hurt her politically if such a photo did come out — I mean, come on. But that’s the world we live in.

Yet, the key thing is — AOC has a greater-than-zero chance of at some point becoming a latter day TR if we somehow enter a Second Progressive Era. But I’m always wrong, so lulz.

Lingering Questions About Trump’s Attempted January 6th Autogolpe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Who organized the Pence Gallows in front of the Capitol?
Sometimes, the biggest tell about an event comes from something we simply take for granted. In this case, it took some planning to set up a gallows for Pence on January 6th. That thing didn’t just magically appear out of nowhere. It suggests that there was a specific point to the insurrection — scare the shit out of Mike Pence so he wouldn’t certify the vote.

Why did Trump give Jim Jordan the Medal of Freedom on January 11?
Again, it’s easy to dismiss this by saying Jordan was such a long-term toady of Trump’s that of course he would get the Medal of Freedom before Trump left office. And, yet, the case could be made that Jordan did something specific in that prompted Trump in his zero-sum-game mind to feel compelled to give Jordan a “gift” in exchange for…what? Silence? Actively fucking up any investigation into what happened January 6th?

Why did a Proud Boy leader visit Trump in the days before January 6th?

This is one of those things where what actually happened is kind of nebulous. Did a Proud Boy leader get a tet-a-tete with Trump in the White House? What did they talk about? There are a lot of conflicting stories about all of this, but someone needs to ask some questions to figure out what happened.

How much did Trump know about the plot for January 6th?

It is reasonable to believe that Trump was the driving force for what happened on January 6th….but just like with the Russia conspiracy stuff, it was probably very chaotic and haphazard. Trump probably would dip in to a meet every once in a while to give “his people” a general goal then wonder off. This gives him legal “plausible deniability” because all he had to do was incite the mob — he likely didn’t know exactly that was going to happen. He just knew there was a good chance they would attack to Capitol in such a way that it could scare the shit out of Pence so he didn’t do his job.

The Political Implications of Global Climate Change


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It has been speculated that global climate change was responsible for the current COVID19 pandemic. If that is the case, then the argument could be made that Trump was the first political fatality of our new hotter-than-ever age.

Watch out for that last step.

If things continue the way they are currently going, there’s going to come a point when American politics is going to change in a rather dramatic fashion — potentially a lot sooner than you might think.

If a huge chunk of Florida and Louisiana simply sink into the sea, those people — voters — have to go somewhere. Imagine what happens when Miami sinks into the sea and all those voters have to find somewhere new to live. Where ever they go, they’re going to change the political dynamic once they get settled.

And, remember, a huge swath of the the Rust Belt has been depopulated over the last few decades. If things really get as hot as we fear, then, on an existential basis, it’s easy to imagine cities like Detroit, Buffalo, and other, similar places having a rush of new residents.

Given how badly we’re fucking things up, this could happen a lot sooner than you might think — it could be so soon that our apparent inevitable march into autocracy might, if not be stopped, at least slowed or the context changed a little bit.

Anyway, what do I know. All I know is, long term, we’re fucked.

The Curious Case Of Usenet, Reddit, Twitter & Inline Editing


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re all in kind of a holding pattern until the next Big Thing rolls around and changes — disrupts — everything. But I will note, in passing that 25 years ago Usenet had a feature that as far as I can tell doesn’t exist in any of the available options: inline editing.

Usenet

Today, the closest we have to the Usenet of yore is Reddit, but for the ability to inline edit content that is posted. And while I totally — if reluctantly — accept that I will never get the social media platform inspired by Usenet concepts that I long for so bad, I will talk about how inline editing could be used.

Usenet

Imagine if you had an app similar to a mixture of Reddit and Twitter with a paid editorial staff and inline editing. If people could inline edit — with formatting — a webpage in the context of such an app it would blow people’s minds.

Usenet

But, like I said, I have to accept that the moment for a new social media platform is long gone. The entire Internet is mature now. We’re probably going to have to wait for $1,200 Mindcaps to come to market for anything new or innovative to occur.

Pour one out for Usenet.

The Ballad Of Barr & Pence: A MAGA Autogolpe That Wasn’t


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When the history of Trumplandia is written, two people will stick out as having changed everything by what they did — or didn’t do: Bill Barr and Mike Pence.

What makes their actions so weird in hindsight is neither one of them was ever mentioned as the “guardrails” that were going to save us from Trump’s excesses. In fact, they were some of the biggest toadies for Trump — until they weren’t at very crucial moments in time.

Bill Barr — at least in my opinion — had a specific purpose when he was originally hired: end the Mueller Investigation. He wrapped that up and did plenty of really shitty things. And then in the 2020 – 2021 timeframe he did something that saved American democracy for four more years: nothing.

He sat on his hands.

So, even though Barr intimately knew on a personal basis how badly Trump wanted DOJ to indict the Bidens, or Hillary or Obama or whomever, he was able to simply slow walk all of Trump’s would-be autocratic moves so they were moot. Without Barr doing that, it’s very possible that all the autocratic things I thought up in 2020 Trump would have done and he would still be president.

Then there’s Mike Pence.

Pence is the consummate Trump sycophant. Or, at least, he was until January 6th. After defending Trump at every turn for any and everything he did, no matter how horrible or autocratic, on January 6th Pence gave American democracy a second chance by simply doing his fucking job. (Which in the specific case of certification was simply to announce the certification, he didn’t really have to do anything other than not nullify the certification by going rouge.)

And, so because of the actions of two people everyone assumed would be Trump’s lapdogs, American democracy was spared for a few years. You honestly could not make such shit up.

What happens next is up to us. We aren’t going to be as lucky, next time.

Why A Chinese Attack On Taiwan In The Near Future Might Succeed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are some assumptions we have made about the world since the end of WW2 that may not be grounded in reality anymore. One of them is the United States is powerful enough that it, unto itself, is enough to prevent a major regional war from breaking out.

And, yet, I don’t know if that’s still the case.

The specific instance I’m thinking of is China and Taiwan. China is now powerful enough that it could attempt to retake Taiwan and…what would happen? Anything? The United States isn’t going to nuke them because of MAD and the United States and China are so tightly linked on an economic level that there’s not a lot, in real terms, the US could do.

As such, the argument could be made that China — far sooner than we might expect — could made a grab for Taiwan and the United States would make a lot of noise, but wouldn’t do much about it.

The big wildcard of such event, of course, is World War 3 would start because once China proved they could do whatever the fuck they wanted, then other, similar hotspots would also erupt and we would have a number of regional wars happening at the same time that would be marketed as “World War Three.”

It could be that China will simply way for the United States to buckle as part of a civil war to strike. Or, a MAGA president might make us Fortress America and then China could strike because we won’t care about the outside world anymore.

The point of all of this is — it’s possible the existing global order is a far more fragile than we might otherwise believe.

A Rough Chronology Of Trump’s January 6th Autogolpe Plot


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m too lazy to hunt down the details of what I’m about to write — I’m not writing for VOX, after all — but here is a rough outline of what I know about the events leading up to Trump’s January 6th attempted autogolpe. I’ve added relevant text from another post I’ve written to flesh out this post.

Background
When the history of Trumplandia is written, two people will stick out as having changed everything by what they did — or didn’t do: Bill Barr and Mike Pence. What makes their actions so weird in hindsight is neither one of them was ever mentioned as the “guardrails” that were going to save us from Trump’s excesses. In fact, they were some of the biggest toadies for Trump — until they weren’t at very crucial moments in time.

First, Bill Barr. Bill Barr — at least in my opinion — had a specific purpose when he was originally hired: end the Mueller Investigation. He wrapped that up and did plenty of really shitty things. And then in the 2020 – 2021 timeframe he did something that saved American democracy for four more years: nothing. He sat on his hands.

So, even though Barr intimately knew on a personal basis how badly Trump wanted DOJ to indict the Bidens, or Hillary or Obama or whomever, he was able to simply slow walk all of Trump’s would-be autocratic moves so they were moot. Without Barr doing that, it’s very possible that all the autocratic things I thought up in 2020 Trump would have done and he would still be president.

It is a testament to what a lazy ding-dong Trump is that in the summer and early fall of 2020 he was not far more aggressive against Biden. Anyone else in Trump’s position would have leaned into the fact that he was now politically above the law and, as such, could do anything to stay in power and it work. If Bill Barr wouldn’t indict the Bidens, then a true autocrat in Trump’s position would have fired him in the middle of 2020 and found someone who would. Trump talked a lot about indicting Hunter Biden or Joe Biden…but it was all talk. He didn’t even simply fire anyone necessary to have something akin to the Second Comey Letter released.

We can only conclude from this that Trump is a historical and political avatar. He’s not a great man, he just kind of drifts through history reflecting the rot of our undead liberal democracy back at us. As such, it didn’t really sink into Trump he might be forced out of office until the moment it was too late to use politics — the moment the election was called for Biden. It was at this moment Trump both freaked out and, on a political level, all of Trump’s options ended.

Thus, Trump would have to use extra-political means to stay in office.

The Modern Republican Party

Autogolpe
When, on a political basis, all of Trump’s options faded away, he began to freak out and think up ways to stay in office through an autogolpe — self-coup. His first idea was to berate and lean on the people who certified the election results in an effort to get them to nullify Biden’s win that way. He was calling up election officials from all over the country — and even inviting to the White House –in a panicked, desperate attempt to nullify Biden’s win at one of its weakest links.

When that didn’t work, Trump continued to panic. He began to lean on the Justice Department, hoping that they would simply say “the election was corrupt.” That’s all he wanted, just like with Ukraine. He just wanted people with authority to announce an investigation into the “corrupt” 2020 election and then he and Rudy would use the same agitprop techniques of the last five odd years to, through sheer ego and bullshit — force the election into the House and Senate.

Here’s something to mull — it’s very possible that our autocracy will come “legally’ when Republicans starting in 2024 always push POTUS elections into the House and Senate. Because Republicans have a majority of House delegations, they will always win. Let me repeat that: They. Will Always. Win. Because this up-to-now obscure element of the Constitution is their ultimate failsafe for winning elections, Republicans will use it to establish white Christian minority rule.

In fact, if America slips peacefully into autocracy, it will be because of that specific provision of the Constitution. It will be “Constitutional” so it will give the liberal media a hook to explain to the average person why they should cool it with talk of a civil war. This development will be framed just like the Bush V. Gore decision and, gradually, it will be such conventional wisdom that Republicans always win presidential elections that Republicans will finally get what they want: people will stop voting.

Of course, Republicans, once they know they can do whatever the fuck they want, will inevitably abuse their power to the point where we’re indistinguishable from autocratic Russia or there’s a civil war. I think we’re probably just going to become an autocracy and that’s it. At the moment, I just don’t see us breaking the seal on civil war.

If civil war happens, it will probably happen directly because of Trump’s personal incompetence at some critical moment in history. If history picks anyone else to shepherd us into autocracy, then it’s a done deal.

Let’s go back to the autogolpe. In the end, what spelled the demise of Trump’s autogolpe plot was how fucking lazy and stupid he was. He came up with all these ideas for how to throw the election into the House and Senate…and he just couldn’t bring himself to pull the trigger. He just was too deranged to simply fire anyone necessary to get that accomplished.

All the conditions were there, but, in the end, it was Trump, specifically, who fucked up and gave American democracy a few years of breathing room.

Because Trump could not pull the trigger, the last ditched effort of the autogolpe was something like this — gather a bunch of die hard MAGA fuckers near the Capitol, incite them in a speech, and then see what happened. At moment, there is no evidence that Trump knew how successful the insurrection would be, but he and his toadies knew, in general, what was likely to happen. In this respect, Trump gave himself some “plausible deniability” should the insurrection actually be a success.

So, from what I can tell, what Trump wanted was to get the mob to browbeat Pence into not certifying the vote. Why else were they chanting, “Hang Mike Pence?” This would throw everything up in the air and then Congress would get involved and that’s where Trump thought he would win because in the House each state delegation would get one vote and Republicans have a majority of delegations

The specific uses of the Electoral Count Act elude me, but it might have bene the middle step that Trump and Rudy could have fucked with to get a win. But the point remains — weirdly enough, we all owe Pence a lot of gratitude for destroying his political career by doing his fucking job.

Pence is the consummate Trump sycophant. Or, at least, he was until January 6th. After defending Trump at every turn for any and everything he did, no matter how horrible or autocratic, on January 6th Pence gave American democracy a second chance by simply doing his fucking job. (Which in the specific case of certification was simply to announce the certification, he didn’t really have to do anything other than not nullify the certification by going rouge.)

And, so because of the actions of two people everyone assumed would be Trump’s lapdogs, American democracy was spared for a few years. You honestly could not make such shit up.

Anyway, once Pence certified the vote, Trump lost.

That’s A Pretty Big Ask, Lorne



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, Lorne Michaels is asking his current group of Not Ready For Primetime Players to sign three year contracts so they will all be there for the big 50th Anniversary season — when, presumably, Michaels with retire.

That’s a pretty big ask, in my opinion.

A sizable chunk of the SNL players have been on the show for a long, long time. I understand that Michaels wants to end his time with the show on a high note, but…really? I dunno. The last show of the season last year definitely seemed to indicate that almost everyone on the show was about to leave.

But, who knows.

All I do know is once Michaels leaves, the entire show is going to be throw into a severe crisis for no other reason than TV execs usually screw up a good thing because they’re metrics are all out of whack compared to the audiences.