Tag: China

Why Would China Attack Taiwan Now?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m no expert about any of this, so all of this is very speculative. So take that into consideration when reading. This is more me just doing one of my compulsive scenarios than any sort of definitive explanation.

One minor point –the last few months I’ve been getting the occasional ping to this Webste from China. I always assumed it was people connected to Tik-Tok annoyed that I was suggesting the service could read people’s mind. But what if it was people with Chinese intelligence interested in the political state of the United States? If you are a regular reader of this site, you will know that I have painted a very dire future for the United States.

Another thing — I think we’re probably at just the very early stages of any point in time where China might strike Taiwan. It would make a lot more sense for them to wait until at some point after 2025 when America will either be Fortress America or in the middle of a civil war to do anything against their wayward sisters in the South China Sea.

And, yet, I suppose the case could be made that there’s a lot going on inside China at the moment that nobody knows about and, as such, the Chinese might attack now, rather than wait until it’s obvious the United States is falling apart. The only reason why I even have started talking about all of this is I’ve begun to hear a minor amount of chatter about troop movements in China near Taiwan. And August is essentially here as of this writing, so…bingo?

Also, I could see China thinking that Biden is so old and the United States so divided that it would be difficult for the US to have a comprehensive approach to any Sino-Taiwanese War. This particular situation would only get worse, of course if more regional conflicts went hot and an actual WW3 began.

Talk about throwing American domestic politics for a loop!

Anyway. I have no idea. But is interesting to think about.

The Guns Of August: Running The China Attacks Taiwan Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I’m no expert on what’s going on between China and Taiwan these days, but I do love a good scenario. So, let’s run the scenario of what would happen if China went after Taiwan in August.

HT / The Sun

August, as you may know, sucks. So, it would make a lot of sense for China to start a war against Taiwan during the month. But the key thing to consider when approaching such a scenario is how the press would market it. If you have two major regional wars going on at the same time, it’s very easy to imagine that being marketed as “WW3” by the Western press.

That, until itself, would change the whole dynamic of the age. And, remember, the United States will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025 so that would be another datapoint to consider if the two regional wars sparked an even broader conflict.

Think the Russian Empire during WW1, only this time it would be the United States being knocked out of commission by either turning into an America First autocracy or imploding into civil war.

And, what’s more, a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a much bigger war than what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine at the moment. So, it’s possible that the DPRK might look at the attack on Taiwan as their last ever chance to do something against their brothers to the south. (This is extremely speculative on my part.)

Then, of course, there’s away Iran. They have already vowed to assassinate a few high profile leaders in the US. There could be a chain reaction whereby you have WW3 — Russia V. Ukraine, Iran V. the West, China V. Taiwan and the DPRK v. ROK.

Oh, and don’t forget! There’s always the risk that India and Pakistan would want to settle some scores along the way too.

And that, my friend, would be WW3, with all the combatants being forced to pick a side. Talk about a Great Reset! The whole post-WW2 world order would collapse and we would be going to the show. There would be no narrative and we would have no idea how things would end up until the end.

May you live in interesting times…

WW3: A Russo-Sino Axis & The End Of Pax Americana


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After decades of being half-away awake, history is now wide awake and ready to boogie. As part of that suddenly being awake, we face the prospect of the Russians and the Chinese making common cause against Pax Americana. This new Axis might also, along the way recruit Iran and the DPRK.

For the moment, this is rather fanciful.

China has a vested interest — for the time being — in Pax Americana existing so it can slowly rise peacefully within its context. The Chinese are very smart. They know they’re not quite ready to strike in a big away against, say Taiwan, so, lulz, let the Americans have a circle jerk over cancel culture without any major regional war in Asia to worry about.

And, yet, the case could be made that China might see what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine and think NOW is the time to strike. The United States is historically weakened by internal division and the careening existential choice of autocracy or civil war in the 2024 – 2025 time frame.

It’s possible that at some point in the near future all of us will be surprised when there’s a geopolitical tet-a-tet between Putin and Xi and the entire world’s post-WW2 liberal order collapses. China will send Russia arms for its war against Ukraine and Russia will sell China oil. Meanwhile, Xi could lean on the DPRK to attack the South Koreans as some sort of geopolitical distraction for the Americans so China can attack Taiwan.

The Iranians attack Israel and or Iraq to get in on the fun.

Remember, there are no assurances the Good Guys — us — would win such a new series of regional wars, or something that the press would call WW3. It could be that the United States either becomes a MAGA Fortress America or has a civil war and, as such, a new Age of Autocracies is established.

Or, it’s possible that a few billion people during a WW3 for various reasons and when we come out the other side with something akin to United Earth. The process of getting to that point would suck royally, but in the end humanity might find the wherewithal to save itself from itself.

Running The WW3 Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot of talk these days about the possibility of World War Three happening. Well, let’s think about how it might happened and what it would, in practical terms, look like.

The first issue is we don’t know if Putin is a rational actor or not on the world stage. But, then, we didn’t expect him to invade Ukraine and he did that, so we have to take seriously that he might go after the Baltic states who are members of NATO.

If he did that, then, yes, in a legal sense WW3 would begin. But a lot would depend on what happened after that. If Putin just fucked with the Baltic states, that wouldn’t really be WW3 unless there was some sort of limited nuclear exchange. Him just scaring the shit out of the Baltics enough that it was considered an act of war and caused them to invoke NATO’s Article 5…would just be really meaningless – but scary — events.

What Putin would need would be an Axis of some sort. He would need other major powers who wanted to challenge Pax America as well to act in unison with him. This would require, of course, Putin to convince President Xi of China to attack Taiwan — potentially with tactical nukes after Putin had broken that particular taboo himself in Ukraine.

Xi might, in turn, lean on the North Koreans to go after the the South Koreans as some sort of distraction. And, if Putin was REALLY LUCKY, he might be able to rope Iran into this particular clusterfuck as well.

As all of this was happening, you would also probably have India and Pakistan going at it as well. So, there you go. That would be WW3 and there would be no assurances that either Pax America survives or that, well, any of us survives.

Movie Scenario: China Using ‘Inception’ Technology To Avoid The Thucydides Trap


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Before you call the dudes with the butterfly nets on me — I’m just running a scenario. I’m kind of crashing after writing and developing on four novels all day and I have some nice whiskey next to me so you get a post like this. I do not think any of this is happening now, but think of this as wargaming a potential way that China could become a hyperpower like the USA without firing a shot.

I once read a book called “Brothers” when I was young which was so fucked up that it really did a number on my wee little mind. And, yet, that book was so out there and so wild in its conceit that I often find myself thinking about it whenever I come up with some wild plot point for the four novels I’m working on. I think to myself, “Well, if people bought the premise of THAT book, they’ll be cool with this…”

Anyway, something eerie happened recently to me that is difficult for me to explain. You see, I was really thinking about how I need a second creative track. The four novels I’m developing and writing are going really well — if slow — and I just need something to turn my attention to when I get burnt out with writing.

Then something weird happen.

I started to get pushed videos on my Tik-Tok FYP about how to shoot really cool pictures. I didn’t think anything about it until at some point things came to a head and I was like, “Huh, I think I’m going to save up the money to buy a really nice Nikon camera and see about becoming a fashion photographer.”

Then it hit me — something about the lead up to this “ah-ha!” moment felt…unnatural. As I was being gently guided towards that decision. Again, I’m just letting off some steam by saying that. That is such an abstract observation that there are many, many no-Inception-necessary that would easily explain it.

In other words, it’s bullshit to think Tik-Tok using real-life Inception technology was fucking with me.

But, having said that, let’s run that scenario. What if the next war isn’t a cyber war but a Singularity War. And it would be a war that we didn’t even know was being waged against us.

Here’s my bonkers scenario. China is a rising power. We’re rushing towards the Singularity. Let’s propose that in dribs and drabs Big Tech in both the United States and China have figured out not just Digital Telepathy, but fucking Inception.

They’re not just eaves dropping on our minds, they’re actually implanting concepts into our minds in some way. It’s easy to imagine China, not wanting to blow the world up, begins to, at some point, wage Singularity War against the West to the point that we never have a direct conflict with them because, lulz, strangely, things keep breaking the Chinese’s way at critical junctures

Again, I’m just running a scenario. I don’t believe this is happening. This is way too bonkers for even me to believe in anyway. Think of this is a free Hollywood movie concept, if you will. I’m dropping more log lines than truth bombs. At least in my own mind.

Or, put another way, if I was the Chinese leadership, that’s how I would do it. I would have something akin to Digital Telepathy Manhattan Project where I threw a $1 trillion at weaponizing the technology so I could avoid the Thucydides Trap.

Thankfully, no one listens to me. I’m just relaxing by doing some brain dead writing. Lulz.

Why Is It So Difficult To Imagine Tik-Tok Reading Our Minds?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Tik-Tok can not read our minds. This is simply me idly imaging why it would be so hard for us to believe that it could.

If I’m regularly being pushed videos on Tik-Tok that have no logical explanation other than there is some way that the service is rooting around my mind, why is it so difficult for anyone to believe me? And, that, is really, why this bothers me so much — reality (especially a shared reality) is very, very important to me and if something is obviously happening and I’m the only person seeing it, it makes me question my own sanity and I fucking hate that.

The biggest obstacle is how unexpected something like that would be. The moment one establishes that something is even possible, you begin to have severe cognitive dissidence as you process it. There are a lot of questions associated with this possiblity.

If Tik-Tok of all people can read our minds, who else can? And what’s the technology being used for? How extensive is it? Is it a point-to-point technology or is the information that Tik-Tok (and others) is gleaning from reading our minds being aggregated and processed somewhere for some later, nefarious reason?

Then there is the issue of how such technology could be developed in secret. Digital telepathy would be equal to the mass adoption of the Internet itself in historical and cultural significance. And, given the national security implications, Tik-Tok being able to read our minds in secret might, in itself, be seen as an act of war on the part of the Chinese government at some point.

It also opens up the Pandora’s box of, essentially, the Singularity already being here now, but in secret. Or maybe some sort of “soft Singularity” may exist. And, again, the issue of — why hide such technology and what’s the long-term goal of its secret use?

Also, how do you explain how subtle, granular and nuanced some of the editorial decisions this mind reading technology seems to be making about me (and others.) Now, obviously, some of this comes not from any mysterious mind reading technology, but they really do have some very advanced “algorithms.”

And, yet, how is it possible that these “algorithms” could figure out not just the phenotype of girls I like, but their personalities? Is it even possible that it’s not just mindreading going on, but some sort of AI hooked up to what it finds out about me? When a service can figure out that there is a specific young woman in New York City that I would fall in love with at first sight if I met her in person…that’s pretty eerie. That takes some abstract thought on whatever “algorthims” are involved.

If my mind is being read — which it isn’t — it’s not just being read, it’s being read and rooted around in to make some meta-editorial decisions using the videos I’m being pushed on a regular fucking basis.

Or, put another way — given how eerie, how spooky, how specific Tik-Tok is when it comes to what it pushes me these days, whatever the reason seems like a pretty severe national security threat. If it takes bonkers white racist Tucker Carlson to draw attention to it, then, lulz….I guess?

But, again, if Tik-Tok has mindreading technology, then, you know damn well that Facebook, Google, et al have it, too, they’re just a lot more sly about it. Tik-Tok, because its nebulous connection to the autocratic Chinese government doesn’t give a shit.

Anyway, thanks for attending my TEDtalk. I don’t believe Tik-Tok can read our minds, but I fucking hate how spooky their algorithms are.

Is The Chinese Government Fucking With American Pop Culture Via Tik-Tok?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I understand it, the connection between Tik-Tok and the Chinese government is rather…nebulous. As such, given the increasing geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, it’s easy to imagine the Chinese government dabbling in fucking with us via our pop culture that is growing ever-more influenced by Tik-Tok.

Bella Poarch

This sounds really paranoid, but it’s also how the Real World Works.

How else do you explain that Bella Poarch — who has no discernable talent other than she can bounce her head to music — is now a popular singer and what not. But, I’m being paranoid. Which is never good.

So, I guess just keep using Tik-Tok? I dunno. I’m just a rando in a flyover state.

China Would Make A Severe Strategic Mistake To Attack Taiwan In 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Almost no one reads this blog. Like, no one. Maybe almost a 100 people on a good day. Otherwise, I’m just barking into the darkness. So, anything out of the ordinary catches my attention in this site’s Webstats.

Like, why are there people with French URLs who pop up out of the blue? Why are there people in Romania, of all places, who have started to read this blog? Is that one URL I think is a conservative relative who I think it is? And what was with that one person from Brooklyn who spent over an hour doing a deep dive into my rantings on this site? Should I be worried, or pleased with that one?

Anyway, another thing I’ve noticed is a teeny-tiny uptick in hits from China of all places. I think they’re people interested in my rantings about how we’re going to have a civil war at some point between now and January 2025?

Well, if that is the case, all I can say is — slow your roll.

Yes, the United States is as divided as it’s been since the Civil War, but that is going to change the moment there’s a major regional war. For the next four years, until we actually have that civil war (or turn into an autocracy) the United States will become a lot more united the moment we realize we have to gird our loins to save the world, AGAIN.

Around January 2025, however, all that could change.

It would be difficult for the United States to do anything about China — or the DPRK for that matter — if we’re too busy bombing ourselves into oblivion to do anything about it.

So, if you’re some sort of Chinese agent, reading this blog hoping to get a bead on the current American ability to defend Taiwan, that’s my advice.

What Would Happen If China Attempted To Take Taiwan?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is historically divided and, as such, it’s easy to imagine the Chinese seeing this and attempting to take Taiwan. They’re a rising power and usually it’s at times like these that historic miscalculations are made.

I say “miscalculation” because while the United States is VERY divided, I still think if something as huge as a huge regional war broke out we would — eventually — get our shit together and address the issue. What would probably happen is it would be a huge shitshow.

Unless the United States simply lulzed the whole thing and left Taiwan on its own — which it would not — China would have to take Taiwan as part of a huge first strike. We’re talking days or weeks.

Given how Taiwan has been preparing for this very thing for decades, that just wouldn’t happen. China’s best bet is to get the DPRK to commit geopolitical suicide by attacking the south in a big way to distract the United States from what was going on with China and Taiwan.

Something as big as a war between China and Taiwan would so consume the American media world that it would, in fact, unite the nation. Yes, a sizable portion of the electorate hates Biden enough that they would rather let China win a war with Taiwan than let Biden look good, that’s just a small, vocal minority.

So, what would probably happen is Japan, the United States, South Korea and NATO would throw military supplies at Taiwan. The whole thing would become a pitched battle to the point that China would either risk blowing the fucking world up or they would give up.

But what do I know.

Why A Chinese Attack On Taiwan In The Near Future Might Succeed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are some assumptions we have made about the world since the end of WW2 that may not be grounded in reality anymore. One of them is the United States is powerful enough that it, unto itself, is enough to prevent a major regional war from breaking out.

And, yet, I don’t know if that’s still the case.

The specific instance I’m thinking of is China and Taiwan. China is now powerful enough that it could attempt to retake Taiwan and…what would happen? Anything? The United States isn’t going to nuke them because of MAD and the United States and China are so tightly linked on an economic level that there’s not a lot, in real terms, the US could do.

As such, the argument could be made that China — far sooner than we might expect — could made a grab for Taiwan and the United States would make a lot of noise, but wouldn’t do much about it.

The big wildcard of such event, of course, is World War 3 would start because once China proved they could do whatever the fuck they wanted, then other, similar hotspots would also erupt and we would have a number of regional wars happening at the same time that would be marketed as “World War Three.”

It could be that China will simply way for the United States to buckle as part of a civil war to strike. Or, a MAGA president might make us Fortress America and then China could strike because we won’t care about the outside world anymore.

The point of all of this is — it’s possible the existing global order is a far more fragile than we might otherwise believe.