Tag: Burn Hollywood Burn

The Great Hollywood Disruption

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From the buzz I continue to monitor coming out of the tech community, it seems clear that Hollywood may be about to be “Moneyballed” in the sense that a basic human element of the industry — writing — may be turned into a technology issue.

And while I totally support the current Hollywood writers’ strike, if it goes on as long as it probably needs to, the risk that studio executives will simply turn to AI to write very formulaic scripts will increase significantly. Given that at the moment you can’t copyright something done by AI, it’s possible that Hollywood bigwigs will begin to lobby Congress to change that particular situation.

All that has to happen is one AI generated script be produced and it be a success for the whole Hollywood creative ecosystem to be upended. Remember, the vast majority of Hollywood entertainment is formulaic, stale and, well, bad. So the first people to feel the pinch of any AI writing revolution would be hacks who have no talent to begin with.

I still think that once this entire process is complete that live theatre may return to a popularity it’s not seen since…the rise of movies. It could be that when 99% of all recorded entertainment is AI generated that audiences will want to return to the comfort of live entertainment that will have a human touch that our new bot overlords will not be able to provide.

It’s at least a possibility, I suppose.

It just seems to me that Hollywood as we currently know it functions on some very antiquated assumptions. Once LLMs are able to generate content that is just good enough to be watchable, then, that’s it, the revolution will be here and the entire Hollywood economy will be disrupted.

Could The Hollywood Writers’ Strike Be The Tipping Point That Sparks The AI Generated Writing Revolution?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m all for Hollywood writers getting a better deal from the studios, but to get that is probably going to require some industry-wide pain. The thing I’m worried about is that if the writers’ strike lingers longer than any of us might otherwise expect, there is a possibility that, lulz, AI-generated scripts could fill the gap.

Technology usually advances dramatically in times of crisis, so it’s reasonable to assume that it’s possible that if we find ourselves in month three or four of a strike that the major studios, in desperation, will turn to ChatGPT and other similar LLMs to write scripts.

And, remember, the vast majority of TV and movie scripts…suck. They’re formulaic and horrible and yet because of the economics of the industry they get produced. So, it’s very possible that there will at least be some experimentation in AI generated scripts.

That’s how progress happens in abrupt, unexpected ways, shit like a lingering strike. So, it will be interesting to see how things work out.

I’m of the opinion that given the capitalist imperative that Hollywood as we know it is careening towards an astonishing revolution. It’s just a matter of if it’s within five years or 10 years. The longer the writers’ strike lasts, the more likely that we’ll wake up in late 2024 to most of scripted entertainment being done without the benefit of ANY human writers.

I do think, however, that if such a nightmare happened, that we would see a significant increase in the popularity of live theatre.

Matthew Belloni’s Shocking Hot Take On The Future Of Late Night TV

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I was listening to the most recent The Town podcast and was taken aback at how…bad…Matthew Belloni’s take on late night TV was. He, essentially, proposes that as TV transitions into the streaming era that some basic elements of the formula should be ditched.

The reason — the monologue that typically opens these shows has a very short shelf life and doesn’t work well on streaming. As such, the entire idea of what a late night TV show should be re-imagined.

I find this a very, very bad hot take. If we did as Belloni suggested, it would mark the end of late night TV unto itself. Yes, topical humor is ephemeral but that’s kind of the whole point. The point is there is a cultural potency to topical humor that is essential to people watching late night TV, be it a talk show or SNL.

Belloni’s suggestion does make one wonder if there is any future for Saturday Night Live. It seems possible that if someone as influential as Belloni is talking like this, then it seems reasonable to assume that there may come a point when the fate of SNL is very much up in the air.

There may be a luminial moment between the transition to streaming and the advent of AI generated entertainment when whenever may be everything up in the air. Who knows.

Anyway, it could be that things are going to be very bumpy as TV transitions to streaming. The idea that something as basic as dumping the traditional late night talkshow format simply because it doesn’t play well on streaming is mindblowing.

But, then, maybe I’m just an Old.

Vibe Shift: Hollywood Unbound

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A lot of different things are happening with Hollywood right now that we make reflect on and say, “Well it was OBVIOUS that…” this or that thing was going to happen. Here are some of the reasons why Hollywood as we know it may be collapse in the next few years:’

Comic Book Movie Overdose
It’s possible that comic book movies have, at last, jumped the shark. It’s possible that comic book movies are running on fumes and there will come a point in the near, near future where some a new genre will have its moment in the sun. It could be anything from raunchy 80s-style movies to serious, gritty movies. It definitely seems as though, maybe, we’re on the cusp of a significant vibe shift, however.

AI Generated Entertainment
This is something that could pretty much burn traditional Hollywood to the ground. If we wake up in 2026 and ALL media is AI generated, then, whoa. It could be that the only way new stars are generated is on the stage. They go to Broadway, make a name for themselves, get a digital body scan then live off the passive income from that for the rest of their life. Regardless, things are on the cusp of lurching forward big time in Hollywood.

The Writers’ Strike
If there is a long-ish WGA writers’ strike then…oh boy. The adoption of AI to write movies and TV will only accelerate. It could be that by the time the strike is over, a sizable portion of all TV and movies are being written by AI and that will dramatically change the dynamic of Hollywood culture going forward.

Franchise Decay
All the major movie franchises — expect maybe James Bond — have been so stripmined that they are all but dead. They need to lie fallow for a few years, maybe a decade, then be hard rebooted in ways that appeal to modern audiences. But, alas, Hollywood is so fucky hackined and greedy that they just can’t leave well enough alone.

Will AI Generated Entertainment Burn Hollywood To The Ground To Save It?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is a real question in my mind about the fate of Hollywood and entertainment in general going forward with the rise of AI generated art. And, yet, there is also a possibility that once mass media doesn’t exist anymore that people with, uhhh, taste…will finally get the mass media that they have not really been getting for ages and ages.

So, imagine a situation where there is no mass media anymore. Everyone gets very, very specific TV, music and movies based on a face scan that determines what mood their in at that specific moment. Instead of paying $25 for a combined Netflix and Spotify subscription, you pay something similar for the right to listen to music that is actually good (relative to you) and watch TV and movies that are good (relative to you.)

Everybody wins, right?

Well, sorta.

If that happens — and I think it will, after we sort out the whole autocracy vs. civil war situation in late 2024, early 2025 — then there will no longer be any form of “shared reality.” By definition, “share experience” of watching the same popular TV show and then talking about it on Twitter will be moot and quaint.

Everyone will be enjoying very, very specific entertainment for the specific mood you’re feeling at that particular moment. Some people will continue to enjoy really bad entertainment, while others will get to watch endless new episodes of, say 30 Rock.

A lot of problems that mass media has at the moment will be solved, even it means that the entire greater Hollywood-industrial complex will in no way, continue to exist.

Do I think that will happen?

I just don’t know.

But it will be interesting to see going forward what happens.

Could Phoebe Waller-Bridge Be The Next James Bond?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve heard some chatter here and about that Phoebe Waller-Bridge might be tapped to write and direct the next James Bond movie. She already did a touch up of the No Time To Die script and she apparently really impressed the James Bond family in the process.

Given the dynamics of Hollywood, it’s at least within the realm of possibility that Waller-Bridge might not only write and direct the next James Bond, but BE James Bond. How they would pull this particular hattrick off, I don’t know, but that’s why they pay them the big bucks.

They did kill James Bond off in the last movie, so anything is possible. Even though Waller-Bridge would do a great job as James Bond, if a woman was James Bond every “anti-woke” crusader worth their talking head status on Fox News would freak the fuck out in a very, very public manner.

And, remember, there were rumors that the producers of the next Indy movie wanted to use time-travel to reboot the franchise so Waller-Bridge would be the next Indy. Apparently, at least according to the dubious YouTube movie grapevine, that idea has been shelved.

Anyway, it will be interesting how things develop going forward. Waller-Bridge definitely is a very talented woman and of all the people I could think of who might bring back the good olde days of campy James Bond updated for modern sensibilities, Waller-Bridge is definitely at the top of the list.

What Is Going On With Jennifer Lawrence’s Career?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Hollywood is there’s what REALLY goes on and then what we Poor rubes project onto the dynamics of the industry. Way too many woke people are aghast that there is any nudity or sex in a movie when for some Hollywood starlets a little T&A is thought of as a great way to further their career.

LONDON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 01: Jennifer Lawrence attends a photocall for “Passengers” at Claridge’s Hotel on December 1, 2016 in London, England. (Photo by Anthony Harvey/Getty Images)

Not all, but some.

It gets a lot more complicated when you factor in how gross and creepy way too many major players in Hollywood are.

Anyway, this bring us to Jennifer Lawrence. I really like her a lot and I am looking forward to her new movie No Hard Feelings. And, yet, there are some people — especially on Tik-Tok — who think the movie is “cringe.” But it does make you wonder why she’s veered from making high profile “prestige” movies to raunchy 80s style comedies.

It’s very curious.

I say more power to her, but the proof is in the pudding. If she only did the movie because her career is in the dumps, that’s a lot different than if she did it of her own volition. She is — relative to Hollywood standards — getting “older” and she’s a new mom so, I dunno.

AI & ‘Undead’ Hollywood

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve now heard two different respected podcasts broach some variation of a future that I’ve been ranting about for some time now — the idea that soon there won’t be any art but AI generated art. So, 30 years from now, there won’t be any “mass media” anymore in the sense that we’ll all be watching very, very specific entertainment generated not just for us specifically, but a specific mood.

So, rather than paying $15 a month for a streaming service, we’ll pay a similar amount for access to the bodyscans of our favorite Hollywood stars. Hollywood will soon enough be in an “eternal now” populated with undead stars who may not even exist at all, depending on how sentimental you might be for some star you saw before the AI generated art revolution took over.

I still think that there is a least possibility that in the future the goal of actors will be not to make it in Hollywood, but rather make it on the stage so they can then turn around, get a full body scan and make all their money passively off of the licensing of those scans. It’s at least possible there will be a huge Broadway revival for macro economic and technological reasons.

And, what’s more, all of this could happen very, very fast and very very soon. It could be — especially with a Hollywood writers’ strike looming — that we’ll wake up in 18 months and ChatGPT 8 is spitting out all of the content that we consume. The streaming wars will seem very, very quaint.

Of course, all of this may have to wait for the “Fourth Turning” to sort itself out and it could be that much of the world will be rebuilding itself after several limited nuclear wars because the United States was too busy imploding to keep the world order.

That got kind of dark pretty quick.

Anyway, if I had any money at the moment — which I don’t — I would short Hollywood and long AI.

Wait, What: Is Shailene Woodley Married To A Woman?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All I have on this is a blind item I saw somewhere — I think Tik-Tok — that suggested one of my favorite crunchy-granola celebrities, Shailene Woodley, may be married to a woman.

I could care less one way or another if she is, and, let’s be honest — no one reads this blog other than my stalkers and family members who for some strange reason are curious what’s on my mind without telling me to my face what they’re doing it. (Ugh.)

But it IS fun to think about.

I really like Ms. Woodley and she seems — at least relative to my media world — to have dropped off the face of the earth. It’s all very curious. It would be a fun-interesting thing to see the entertainment press — which actively hides Kaia Gerber’s activity in the lady pond — have to explain how the poor man’s Jennifer Lawrence is into women.

But, lulz. Whatever. This is probably bullshit. I wish her well, regardless.

We’re On The Cusp Of AI Generated Celebrity Porn Being A *REAL* Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me that, in the end, the first tranche of AI-related regulation will probably concern AI generated celebrity porn. Whenever there is a new technology, porn is usually the thing that everyone uses it for most effectively right out the gate.

If my Twitter feed is any indication, a bunch of fucking hornytoad Incels are going to start making all of their dirtiest dreams come true by generating massive amounts of porn using celebrity images so good that they look very, very real.

As such, I think it might be possible that some sort of legislation that would one demand celebrity approval or compensation may get enacted as well as some sort of watermark requirements. Or, put another away, AI-related regulation is going to start streaming out of Congress far, far sooner than you might think.

We’re just about to reach a tipping point where the current Wild West of AI simply is no longer viable. I say this in the context of the 2024 presidential election cycle beginning to pick up steam. Regulating AI generated celebrity porn will just be the first wave of it all because it’s sexxy and everyone likes to think about porn.