Are We a ‘Constitutional Republic’ or a Democracy?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The simple explanation for why MAGA Republicans are so adamant that the United State is a constitutional republic rather a democracy is it’s a form of debate nullification. It gets MAGA Republicans, who are fucking fascists, a retort against liberal-progressives who talk about how MAGA Republicans are a “threat to our democracy.”

MAGA Republicans hear this so much that they have come up with, “Oh yeah? Well fuck you, the United States isn’t a democracy in the first place, it’s a constitutional republic!” Then it becomes obvious that the two people talking can’t even agree on the terms they’re using and the conversation trails off to something else.

There is so much wrong with the growing insistence by MAGA Republicans that we can’t defend democracy because, lulz, the United States isn’t even one to begin with. They have a number of talking points thought out about all of this, everything from “Are you going to challenge the wisdom of the Founding Fathers?” to a garbled, misinterpretation of Alexis de Tocqueville.

That this is even an issue, is also something of a tell as to the agenda of MAGA Republicans. That they get so wrapped up in this dumb conflation about the nature of our Constitution tells us that they don’t believe in democracy and they want to establish a white Christian ethnostate. Or, more specifically, rather than work within the bounds of our democracy and change their policy agenda to win elections fair and square, they’re so fucking racist that they want to play lesser democratic elements of the Constitution like a xylophone so they can establish an autocracy and that will be that.

The point is — another reason why this is a tell is the idea that the United States is a “constitutional republic” is not mutually exclusive with it being a democracy. It’s both and has been, to varying degrees, since its conception. It’s only now, when MAGA Republicans are looking for some retort to evil libtards that the two equally true concepts have been muddled by MAGA Republicans’ partisan needs.

I would note that “What form of government does the United States have?” is following the same path as any number of other hot button issues where the two sides are so far as apart that they can’t agree on the basics. If you bring it up MAGA Republicans laugh at you, use a joke they heard on some fetid MAGA podcast and then you spend all your time not talking about the issue, but wading through bullshit designed to make it impossible to even debate the topic at hand in the first place.

It’s happened with gun control. It’s happened with the Green New Deal. It’s happened to a variety of topics and it’s happening with the very basic idea of the Untied States being a democracy. If that’s not a sign that at some point between now and spring 2025 we’re going to have a civil war, turn into a MAGA autocracy or have a military junta, I don’t know what is.

This is where I have to bring up the great irony of this bullshit. I have people in my family to believe “the United States isn’t a democracy.” I love them dearly, even if I’ve actively given up debating politics with them because of shit like this. The irony is that given that I’ve made it very clear that I’m not going to ever stop ranting about how much I fucking hate the MAGA Republican movement, should the United States turn into an autocracy, it’s inevitable that I’m probably going to be sent to a camp.

THEN, of course, my Traditionalist conservative relatives will sit up and take notice and have to figure out how to get me out of my concentration camp. Once things get personal — their only red line other than violence in the streets — then they will start to get upset about America no longer being a democracy. Then, of course, it will be fucking too late. This is not an abstract to me. I’m never going to be a “Good German” and any shift on the part of the United States into autocracy poses real risks for me, personally.

But my Traditionalist relatives scoff at these fears or just don’t want to talk about it. They hate the soft power of the “woke cancel culture mob” SO MUCH that they willing to give up their American birth right of democracy so they can live in a white Christian ethnostate, even if it puts my life in real danger.

Jesus, Is MAGA Adopting The Qanon ‘One’ Salute? Talk About Form Following Function!

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, tonight, at the very end of Trump’s deranged rally in Ohio, a number of people near the front of the crowd were raising their hands in Trump’s direction. It looked like they were doing the Nazi Roman salute, but the way they had their heads down, I initially thought they were maybe praying as Trump did some sort of insane benediction.

Form….
…follows function

Well, turns out — would you believe — that what they were doing is sticking out one finger in a “One” gesture that has something to do with Qanon. Given how closely this gesture resembles the Nazi salute…oh boy. And given that the whole Qanon bullshit is pretty much an modern day anti-Semitic conspiracy theory the implications of this are pretty dark.

As I keep saying, I still think that ultimately MAGA will result in more deaths than the Nazis. I hope I’m wrong — I almost always am — but if the MAGA faithful all begin to make a One Salute whenever they see Herr Trump…well, that’s not exactly the greatest sign for our future.

‘What Constitutes a MAGA Republican?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A MAGA Republican is a fascist. And what does that mean? Well, in this particular case, it means they not only have absolute fidelity to dingus Trump, but they are racist and misogynistic in the extreme. They hate the browning of America and the rise of economically liberated women.

Often they frame what they believe in the context of the “woke cancel culture mob” wanting to ruin their lives for “just for being conservative.” There is an intense sense of aggrievement on the part of MAGA Republicans, to the point that they are willfully blind to the complete lack of popular policies on the part of MAGA Republican leadership in the name of “owning the libs.”

In fact, that is the central tenant of the MAGA Republican movement — owning the libs. They will believe any lie, follow any conspiracy to its logical extreme and ridiculous conclusion as long as they feel the warm glow of there having been libs “owned.” MAGA Republicans are so consumed by the culture wars that they have no policies other than whatever Trump rants about at any particular moment. Their fidelity to Trump is as absolute as a Christian’s to Jesus.

Another important element of the MAGA Republican movement is they no longer believe in democracy. In fact, they go out of the way to make it clear that the United States is NOT a democracy at all, but rather a constitutional republic. They say this because they know the more people vote, the less likely it is they win elections. MAGA Republicans also believe that, by definition, any election they lose is rigged against them.

MAGA Republicans want to establish an autocratic, white Christian ethno state in the United States. They are growing to see violence as means to a political end. And, ultimately, should Trump either go transactional or his second term’s radical policies be too much for Blue States — there could be a civil war.

And, typically, pick the most extreme Right wing hot take on any subject and that’s what MAGA Republicans believe. MAGA Republicans also believe that their Dear Leader Donald Trump is, by definition, above the law and even if the authorities have him dead-to-rights with it comes to {name a law} then it’s all a Deep State conspiracy to get him out of the picture. They believe this to the point that there is a good chance that Trump could be cooling his heels in prison and he would STILL win the 2024 presidential election.

The endgame of all of this is still very much up in the air. On one hand, the United States could stagger into some form of autocracy. This works on the assumption, however, that Trump will somehow get out of the way so a more palatable political figure, like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, can be America’s first autocrat.

But, as history has shown, Trump is a fighter and, as such, he is a political monster who refuses to get out of the way, long after he has served his historical and political purpose.

So, it’s at least possible that Trump, unto himself, could cause a civil war and destroy the most powerful democracy the world has ever known. Good luck.

Biden Needs To Call MAGA Straight Up Old Fascists, Not ‘Semi’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The case can be made that if Biden frames the 2022 elections in as start as terms as possible — fascism versus democracy — that we might see an unexpected upset in November. I have extremely low expectations at the moment. And I’ve already begun to game out how dark the period between January 2023 and January 2025 will be in the United States.

We all may be anti-fascist soon enough.

But if we can somehow hold the line against the rising tide of MAGA tyranny, then we will definitely be in a little bit of a better position going into the massive clusterfuck that will be the 2024 election cycle. I can not impress upon you enough how potentially dramatic and violent the 2024 presidential cycle might be. I just don’t see it being a free and fair election because the entire point of the Republican Party at this point is to steal the 2024 election. That’s all they want. All they want is to establish an autocracy in the United States. And all they have to do is gain power once — once! — and that’s it.

The key issue to remember is we can’t punt the existential crisis America faces down the road anymore. Everything is coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025. By definition, if a Republican wins in 2024, we’re going to go down the path of autocracy. If we’re lucky, we settle somewhere around Hungary or Turkey. If we’re not so lucky, we endup somewhere between Russia and Nazi Germany.

Things are really that dire.

Barring a Unity Ticket for 2024, however, I do think that if Biden begins to articulate why the MAGA New Right is old school fascism, that that will really help to clarify in the minds of voters an general unease they probably are feeling already about the extremism of the Republican MAGA New Right.

Things are so volatile when it comes to the Republican Party, even if Democrats were able to miraculously win the 2024 election fair and square Republicans probably would either steal the election or grow extremely violent. What happen on January 6th would pale in comparison to the amount of violence we will see if Republicans lose — or aren’t able to successfully steal the 2024 eletion.

Those motherfuckers really are out for blood, I’m afraid.

CNN’s Current Transformation Portents The Fate Of US Media Under A Very American Autocracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, once Trump or DeSantis is POTUS in 2025, what’s going on with CNN right now is going to happen to all American media. The shift will happen subtly, behind the scenes and under the rubric of “objectivity.” But will happen. And what’s probably going to tip the average person of that something has changed will be a mistake or overreach on the part of the autocrat.

The most obvious place for this to happen would be late night TV. While CNN is lurching towards MAGA via “objectivity” late night hosts could just be purged in a rather abrupt manner — probably because the autocrat threatens the broadcast licenses of their networks.

But the issue is — because form follows function there is going to be a point in the near future when the only way Americans can get any news that the autocrat doesn’t want them to know about will be to watch the BBC. The only way this isn’t going to happen, of course, is if there’s a civil war. Then that’s a whole different set of changes.

And, yet, again, the point is — America is careening towards autocracy at an alarming rate. We really are an anocracy and we’re far less stable than people would like to admit.

It will be shenanigans like what’s happening with CNN that is how freedom of speech will initially be curtailed — it will be plutocrats working within the system who chill free speech, not the government doing it. Though, obviously, that will come soon enough once the MAGA SCOTUS overturns New York Times V. Sullivan.

Enjoy freedom of speech while you have it, folks.

The MAGA New Right Catastrophe of 2022 – 2025 (& Beyond)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to talk about the pseudoscience of The Fourth Turning, but it’s an handy way to talk about what I fear will happen between now and January 2025. All systems are go for a significant change in the lives of everyday Americans, we just don’t know if it will be a final descent into autocracy or if it will be something akin to a civil war / WW3.

The chief reason why I believe this to be the case is the absolute fidelity that dingus Trump continues to have over the MAGA base. No good can come of this situation. I say this because it seems as though a lot Twitter liberals, who should know better, continue to assume that just because they “hope” that Something Will Change in regards to Trump should he be indicted, doesn’t mean it will.

Or, put another way, a lot of brand name people on both the Right and the Left seem to think there is some limit whereby Trump will get the hint and step aside for the good of the nation, or, for the good of Ron DeSantis and the Republican Party, if nothing else.

And, welp, I just don’t think that’s the case.

I think Trump, in his own very stupid way, is prepared to literally destroy the United States rather than personally either have to move aside for DeSantis or to go to jail. Have we learned nothing from what happened around January 6th? As such, we are primed and ready as a nation for a historic catastrophe. The likes we haven’t seen domestically since the First American Civil War and internationally since WW2.

There is a real greater-than-zero-sum chance that there really will be a Great Reset. That, in a sense, we’re going to have an End of, maybe not The World, but A World. The World we’ve all assumed we would live in after WW2 ended in 1945. And it could all begin to unravel at pretty much any moment now. All we don’t know is the specifics.

Are we going to peacefully slip into autocracy after the 2024 election and turn into a MAGA-themed Fortress America, or are we going to enter a period of rapid, violent change that will stun us all. And, would you believe, at this point, it all really depends on what ding-dong Trump does?

I continue to struggle with the implications of Trump simply refusing to get out of the way. Everyone really, really wants Trump to get out of the way for Ron DeSantis so he can become America’s Putin. And, yet, Trump is more likely to bolt the Republican Party with his MAGA base than he is to give up on his quest to become POTUS in 2024.

One other thing — the conditions for grave instability in the United States starting at (check’s watch) any fucking moment are right there in front of us. Biden is very old and Harris is young and untested. If something, God forbid, happens to Biden, then we could have a situation where there was no veep and Trump could suddenly find every reason to demand to be named Speaker of the House should Republicans take the House this year.

I just want you, gentle reader, to realize the gravity of the situation we face between now and January 2025. We’re one heartbeat away from a Great Reset. I mean, if Trump goes the Scalia route and simply peacefully shuffles off this mortal coil in his sleep — America’s cities would be burned to the ground by very paranoid, very angry MAGA New Right people.

Trump isn’t going anywhere, though, most likely and we’re all going to have to deal with the consequences of that. It’s going to get very, very messy, very, very quickly. Millions — even billions — of people could die, depending on the specifics of any supposed “Great Reset” or “Fourth Turning.”

2022 – 2025: The End of Pax Americana

by Shelt Garner
@sheletgarner

We live in very dumb times. When the word “liberal” is now so toxic that you can’t even use the very true phrase “liberal world order” without crazy, frothy nutjobs on the Far Right growing very upset and paranoid, you live in very dumb times.

But the point is — since 1945, humanity has lived with unpreceded peace and prosperity because of, well, the “liberal world order” associated with Pax Americana. And since the fall of Communism, things have only gotten better for everyone involved.

And then MAGA slithered out of its black lagoon.

The thing about the decline of the American Empire is it’s happening in real time before our very eyes and, yet, we can’t process it. The average person is too busy raising their kids and paying their taxes to give the very abstract concepts that are happening all around us much thought.

But there is a very real chance that no matter which direction the United States goes — autocracy or civil war — we will see the end of Pax America and, as such, WW3 will happen. Remember, all that has to happen for WW3 to be declared is more than one major regional war break out at the same time. So, as such, even if what happens is dingus Trump in his second term pulls out of NATO and pulls troops out of ROK, then, there you go, WW3 on a plate. Because what would happen is the US leaving NATO would be a crushing blow to the post-WW2 liberal order.

As Trump “brought the troops home,” China would fill the massive geopolitical vacuum and invade Taiwan just because of, well, YOLO. At the same time, the DPRK would attack the newly undefended ROK. Then maybe Iran attacks Israel. Then maybe India and Pakistan have at it –with nukes!

The point is — we’re past the Event Horizon now. We’re in the danger zone. Something big, really big is probably going to either happen at any moment or no later than January 2025 around certification day. The bolts are popping off the United States at an alarming rate and there’s a good chance that if we don’t become an autocracy, we have a very nasty civil war with WMD used by both sides.

Regardless, not matter if we become an autocracy or have a civil war, there is going to be a Great Reset or Fourth Turning (or whatever the fuck you want to call it) and many, many people are going to die for a very dumb reason. This is it, we’re at the end of the beginning of Pax America.

I fear I, personally, will have to flee my home for political reasons when everything begins to collapse. My politics don’t fit my location. At least I havea passport.

Good luck.

My Hot Take On Liz Cheney Losing Her Primary

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I am well known for my abstract hysterics about how bad things are in the United States at the moment as MAGA continues to be ascendant, occasionally, there is a concrete thing I can point to and say — “That’s bad!”

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

And that’s how I feel about Liz Cheney losing her primary. Even though on policy, I pretty much disagree with her 100%, when it comes to her willing to sacrifice politically in the name of defending democracy I back her just as much. In fact, I’m so desperate for principled leadership and an elected leader who at least believes that the United States IS a democracy that I’m willing to entertain the idea of voting for Cheney. I say this especially in the context of her potentially being a part of a Unity Ticket.

Anyway, the Republican Party is very autocratic and growing ever more so by the moment. It is inevitable that they will gain power again and when they do, I’m not totally sure that they’re going to ever give it up peacefully. And autocracy is so popular, that there’s a decent chance that Trump could win outright in 2024, no cheating required.

He will cheat anyway, of course, because that’s his nature.

We have to prepare for the United States being faced with the deeply existential choice of autocracy or civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025. If Trump is the Republican nominee, this choice is going to be very, very extreme and severe. There won’t be any middle ground.

And, of course, there is the very real possibility that something akin to The Troubles of Northern Ireland might happen in the United States before then. MAGA is already chomping at the bit to murder people like me in cold blood for political reasons — they sure do come to this Website a lot looking for my dystopian hellscape scenarios.

Too bad my nightmare is their dream. What I fear, they want.

Or, to reiterate, we’re past the Event Horizon for civil war or autocracy and we’re in the danger zone of severe political violence erupting at any moment. It could start because Democrats have an upset win in November. It could happen because Trump is indicted. It could be that Trump pulls a Scalia on us and dies peacefully in his sleep. It could happen for you name it. Anything and everything might be the final straw for MAGA and they grab their AR-15s to murder people like me in cold blood. It’s already all they talk about!

Anyway. I’ve already begun to feel the same sense of rage I felt when Trump was president. I hope to channel that rage into six novels and hopefully finish them before I drop dead. But I have to accept the very real possibility that at some point between now and around 2025 I may become a domestic political refugee and will have to find succor somewhere outside of my current abode because all my MAGA neighbors want to murder me for my political views.

We all may be Antifa before it’s over with.

But, back to Cheney. I really respect her principles. And I still believe that if we do have a National Divorce that she could, ironically, become a Blue State America leader. It would be surreal, but when such tectonic historic forces are a play virtually anything is possible.

We may be in for some pretty fucking strange events between now and January 2025.

‘When Will Civil War Begin 2022?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

People want a simple answer to a very complicated question. They want some sense of when a civil war might start in the United States this year — if ever. The biggest issue is, what exactly do you mean a “civil war.” Do you mean a popular uprising on the part of MAGA that would be like “The Troubles” of Northern Ireland or do you mean something more organized, akin to the First American Civil War.

Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war over and above the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And the issue of “when” is even more difficult to pin down. What do you expect to happen? “When” is both very nebulous and specific at the same time. It’s nebulous because what would you call the “start?” An explosion? People dying for political reasons? It’s specific because you expect there to be “An Event” that you can point to, like the battle of Fort Sumter as the “beginning.”

So, I honestly have no idea “when” a civil war will begin in 2022. But if you’re really interested in “when” a civil war will begin this year, you need to keep a close eye on Donald Trump. He has the fate of the United States in his tiny, tiny hands. If Trump goes transactional and demands political violence in an effort to intimidating the Federal government to stop them from prosecuting him. There is, of course, the idea that there could be some sort of “spontaneous” popular uprising on the part of the MAGA New Right that would involve a lot of wildcat, lone wolves with AR-15s running around, murdering people for political reasons.

That, in turn would force us towards a situation where we face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war sometime around late 2024, early 2025. So, it could be that there would be growing violence between now and that time, but it would not be as organized as what we might see as the 2024 presidential cycle comes to a climax. Because I believe that, in the end, it will be Blues who start a civil war, if it happens, because the 2024 election will have been brazenly stolen by Republicans.

And, yet, since the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago, it’s very, very possible that a “civil war” could, in fact, start the way everyone has long thought it would — MAGA freaks out and starts blowing shit up. And it would happen for one specific reason — Donald Trump. Because, as I have already said, on a macro level, Republicans are ascendant and they have absolutely no reason to start a civil war because they’re getting everything they want via other means.

Below is a bit more detailed breakdown of description of what a civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025 might look like.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Dreading The Potential Rise Of Stochastic Terrorism In Our American Anocracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is a real chance that we’re going to see a rise in stochastic terrorism in the immediate future. I have no idea how exactly it might happen, but it definitely would make a lot of sense in a broader historical context if you assume we’re facing the stark choice of autocracy or civil war.

Or, put another way, America’s 2024 election could very well resemble Germany’s in 1933. It was very violent and turbulent, to the point that it could barely be considered “free and fair.” But the issue we have to remember is, things are not officially out of control. The lingering, chronic crisis that we’ve been in since around 2015 is now accelerating and growing more severe by the moment.

A sudden uptick in organized stochastic terrorism would sucker punch the center-Left in the United States. We wouldn’t know how to react. And, yet, talking to my Traditionalist relatives about such things, they indicate to me that stochastic violence might be a “red line” when it comes to their continuing support for MAGA.

They’re willing accept all of the accoutrements of fascism, but when it comes to violence in the streets, it makes them blanch. I don’t know how much of that is specific to just my relatives and how much of that is something Traditionalists in general believe.

But the point is — all the conditions are there for something dramatic to happen on the stochastic terrorism front. There are a LOT of MAGA true believers and dieharders out there with AR-15s and we’re on “truth” away on the part of Trump for them to start running around, picking off FBI agents in an effort to scare the Federal government into staying away from Trump.

And all of this would be happening the context of Trump being the 2024 nominee and brazenly stealing the 2024 election with the aid of Steve K. Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops.”

Anyway. I’m growing concerned. Maybe you should, too.